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on Africa |
| By: | AfDB |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:979&r=afr |
| By: | Piotr Niewiadomski |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper contributes to the international research project ‘Capturing the Gains: Economic and Social Upgrading in Global Production Networks and Trade’. Its main aim is to analyse the operations of international airlines in Africa and assess the influence of the international aviation industry on the development of tourism in selected African states. Simultaneously, through an exploration of the different ways in which international airline groups can foster the development of the tourism sector in Africa, the paper informs the general understanding of the influence of tourism on regional development. Although in general terms the paper focuses on the whole of Africa, more detailed issues are analysed on the basis of South Africa, Kenya and Uganda. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:ctg-2013-36&r=afr |
| By: | Delpeuch, C.; Vandeplas, Anneleen |
| Abstract: | The cotton sector has been among the most regulated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and still largely is in West and Central Africa (WCA), despite repeated reform recommendations by international donors. On the other hand, orthodox reforms in East and Southern Africa (ESA) have not always yielded the expected results. This paper uses a stylized contracting model to investigate the link between market structure and equity and efficiency in SSA cotton sectors; explain the outcomes of reforms in ESA; and analyze the potential consequences of reforms in WCA. We illustrate our arguments with empirical observations on cotton sector performance. |
| Keywords: | sub-Saharan Africa; cotton reforms; self-enforcing contracts; |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:leuven:urn:hdl:123456789/379220&r=afr |
| By: | AfDB |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:981&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Oasis Kodila-Tedika (Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo) |
| Abstract: | With earthshaking and jaw-breaking levels of corruption in the African continent, the question on the extent to which corruption influences crime still remains unanswered. This paper assesses the effect of corruption (corruption-control) in 38 African countries using updated data. We find that, crime is highly positively (negatively) correlated with corruption (corruption-control). The potential mitigation effect (by corruption-control) is higher than the corresponding positive effect of corruption, implying, corruption-control offsets crime emanating beyond the corruption mechanism (inter alia, other poor governance mechanisms). The relationship is statistically strong when controlling for the number of police officers, age dependency, per capital economic prosperity, level of education, government effectiveness and population density. Given that crime is proxied by the level of organized internal conflict, the findings also sustain the substantial role of corruption in the birth and propagation of conflicts within and across Africa. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Security; Corruption; Crime; Conflicts; Africa |
| JEL: | F52 K42 O17 O55 P16 |
| Date: | 2013–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/004&r=afr |
| By: | Cornelia Staritz; Mike Morris |
| Abstract: | Abstract Many low-income countries (LICs) are integrated into apparel global value chains (GVCs) through foreign direct investment (FDI). This is also the case in Lesotho, which developed into the largest Sub-Sahara African (SSA) apparel exporter to the US under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). More recently, a new apparel export market opportunity has emerged in Lesotho, that of the regional market of South Africa. The two export markets, the US and South Africa, are supplied by different types of FDI firms, affiliates of largely Taiwanese transnational producers and of South African manufacturers that are incorporated into distinct value chains. This paper assesses the implications for upgrading integration into these two value chains in Lesotho, the first value chain characterized by Taiwanese investment and feeding into the US market under AGOA and the second characterized by South African investment and feeding into the South African market. These value chains differ with regard to ownership patterns, end markets, export products, governance structures and firm set-up, investors’ motivations and perceptions on the main challenges. These different characteristics have crucial impacts on upgrading possibilities, including functional, process and ‘local’ upgrading. Thus, from the perspective of upgrading and sustainability, ownership patterns, local embeddedness and market diversification matter. The emergence of South Africa as an alternative end market and the different value chain dynamics operating in the South African retailer-governed value chain open up new opportunities away from those of the AGOA-/Taiwanese-dominated value chain. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:ctg-2013-20&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The aim of this paper is to complement theoretical and qualitative literature with empirical evidence on the income-redistributive effect of mobile phone penetration in 52 African countries. Design/methodology/approach – Robust Ordinary Least Squares and Two Stage Least Squares empirical strategies are employed. Findings – The findings suggest that mobile penetration is pro-poor, as it has a positive income equality effect. Social implications – ‘Mobile phone’-oriented poverty reduction channels are discussed. Originality/value – It deviates from mainstream country-specific and microeconomic survey-based approaches in the literature and provides the first macroeconomic assessment of the ‘mobile phone’-inequality nexus. |
| Keywords: | Mobile Phones; Shadow Economy; Poverty; Inequality; Africa |
| JEL: | E00 G20 I30 L96 O33 |
| Date: | 2013–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/021&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Oasis Kodila-Tedika (Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the determinants of state fragility in sub-Saharan Africa using hitherto unexplored variables in the literature. The previously missing dimension of nation building is integrated and the hypothesis of state fragility being a function of rent seeking and/or lobbying by de facto power holders is tested. The resulting interesting finding is that, political interference, rent seeking and lobbying increase the probability of state fragility by mitigating the effectiveness of governance capacity. This relationship (after controlling for a range of economic, institutional and demographic factors) is consistent with a plethora of models and specifications. The validity of the hypothesis is confirmed in a scenario of extreme state fragility. Moreover, the interaction between political interferences and revolutions mitigate the probability of state fragility while the interaction between natural resources and political interferences breeds the probability of extreme state fragility. As a policy implication, there is a ‘sub-Saharan African specificity’ in ‘nation building’ and prevention of conflicts. Blanket fragility oriented policies will be misplaced unless they are contingent on the degree of fragility, since ‘fragile’ and ‘extreme fragile’ countries respond differently to economic, institutional and demographic characteristics of state fragility. |
| Keywords: | State fragility; rent seeking; lobbying; nation building; Africa |
| JEL: | C43 H11 O20 O43 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/019&r=afr |
| By: | Johann Maree; Rachel Piontak; Tonny Omwansa; Isaac Shinyekwa; Kamotho Njenga |
| Abstract: | Abstract It is common cause that the advent of mobile telecommunications, particularly the mobile phone, has been immensely beneficial to developing countries. Not only has it facilitated and improved communication between individuals, but also it has enabled economies to grow faster. This paper explores an additional benefit that derives from having access to a mobile phone. It examines the developmental uses of mobile phones in two East African countries: Kenya and Uganda. It focuses on the relationship between the economic upgrading and the social upgrading or downgrading that result from the developmental uses of mobile phones. It is done by means of case studies. In Kenya, the paper looks at three developmental projects making use of the M-Pesa platform, as well as two hubs in Nairobi where original ideas are incubated. In Uganda, it explores two uses of MTN’s mobile money facility and two innovative rural agricultural projects. It finds that all the cases and projects result in economic and social upgrading, although there is also some social downgrading. The study also extends and broadens the conceptualization of economic and social upgrading as formulated by Capturing the Gains thus far. Finally, the paper shows how it differs from most other studies on the developmental uses of mobile phones in Sub-Saharan Africa – by focusing on social entrepreneurship, which, unlike private entrepreneurship, seeks primarily to create social value. With one exception, all the cases studied in this paper enhance the capacity of users of mobile phones to upgrade themselves economically and socially. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:ctg-2013-35&r=afr |
| By: | Matthias Bauer (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Andreas Freytag (Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena and University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | South Africa's trade barriers are still relatively high compared to other emerging market economies, and its industrial policy still preferentially treats certain industries. Based on a static GTAP model, we estimate the economic impact of further trade liberalization on the South African economy. We particularly take into account core NTB's on tradable commodities and the costs imposed by cross-border trade facilitation, which is particularly inefficient in South Africa. Our results indicate that a full liberalization package, including a reduction of core NTB's as well as a substantial increase in the efficiency of cross-border trade facilitation to the levels of Singapore, would cause the South African GDP to rise by up to 4.51 per cent. This implies an increase in aggregate welfare of up to 21 billion US Dollars. This sum is the equivalent of what should be given to the South African economy in order to leave citizens as well of as after the implementation of a full liberalization package, given South African policy-makers abstain from further trade liberalization policies. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, trade policy, international trade, non-tariff trade barriers, GTAP |
| JEL: | D58 K2 L5 F1 F17 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2013-036&r=afr |
| By: | AfDB |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:980&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an exhaustive assessment of feasible horizons for policy harmonization against African capital flight. The empirical evidence is based on a methodological innovation on common policy initiatives and the results are premised on 15 fundamental characteristics of African capital flight based on income-levels, legal origins, natural resources, political stability and religious domination. Based on the findings, a genuine standard-setting timeframe is in the horizon of 6-13 years. Within the timeframe, common policies are feasible and could be enforced without distinction of nationality or locality in identified fundamental characteristics with full convergence. |
| Keywords: | Econometric modeling; Big push; Capital flight; Debt relief; Africa |
| JEL: | C50 E62 F34 O19 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/008&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Oasis Kodila-Tedika (Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo) |
| Abstract: | Crimes and conflicts are seriously undermining African development. This article assesses the best governance tools in the fight against the scourges. The following findings are established. (1) Democracy, autocracy and voice & accountability have no significant negative correlations with crime. (2) The increasing relevance of government quality in the fight is as follows: regulation quality, government effectiveness, political stability, rule of law and corruption-control. (3) Corruption-control is the most effective mechanism in fighting crime (conflicts). The findings are significantly strong when controlling for age dependency, number of police (and security) officers, per capita economic prosperity, educational level and population density. Justifications for the edge of corruption-control (as the most effective governance tool) and policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Security; Governance; Conflicts; Crime; Africa |
| JEL: | F52 K42 O17 O55 P16 |
| Date: | 2013–01–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/007&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Aminkeng Gilbert (Bruxelles, Belgium) |
| Abstract: | This study dissects with great acuteness some of the big questions on China-Africa relations in order to debunk burgeoning myths surrounding the nexus. It reviews a wealth of recent literature and presents the debate in three schools of thought. No substantial empirical evidence is found to back-up sinister prophesies of coming catastrophe from critics of the direction of China-Africa relations. In the mean, the relationship from an economic standpoint is promising and encouraging but more needs to be done regarding multilateral relations, improvement of institutions and sustainability of resources management. A number of positive signs suggest that China is heading toward the direction which would provide openings for a multipolar dialogue. While benefiting in the short-run, African governments have the capacity to tailor this relationship and address some socio-economic matters arising that may negatively affect the nexus in the long-term. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment; direct trade impacts; China; Africa |
| JEL: | F19 F21 O10 O19 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/020&r=afr |
| By: | Dikgang, Johane; Muchapondwa, Edwin |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the visitation demand function for Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) in order to determine the conservation fee to charge South African residents to maximise park revenue. We conducted contingent behaviour experiments at KTP and three other national parks, which we assume are either substitutes or complements for visitors to KTP. Our random effects Tobit model shows that there is a wide variation in the own-price elasticities of demand between the parks, but they are generally not elastic. The cross-price estimates indicate that there is limited substitutability in visitation demand among the four parks. The study uses the unitary elasticity rule to demonstrate that there is a possibility of raising conservation fees to revenue-maximising levels at KTP, as well as the other parks, using methods such as a mandatory conservation fee increment or a community-bound voluntary donation above the regular conservation fee. Sharing conservation revenue with communities surrounding parks could demonstrate the link between ecotourism and local communities’ economic development, promote a positive view of land restitution involving national parks, help address South Africa’s heavily skewed distribution of income, and act as an incentive for the local communities to participate in conservation even more. |
| Keywords: | contingent behaviour, conservation fee, demand, land claim, national park |
| Date: | 2013–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-13-09-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the aid-development nexus in 52 African countries using updated data (1996-2010) and a new indicator of human development (adjusted for inequality). The effects of Total Net Official Development Assistance (NODA), NODA from the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and NODA from Multilateral donors on economic prosperity (at national and per capita levels) are also examined. The findings broadly indicate that development assistance is detrimental to GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and inequality adjusted human development. The magnitude of negativity (which is consistent across specifications and development dynamics) is highest for NODA from Multilateral donors, followed by NODA from DAC countries. Given concerns on the achievement of the MDGs, the relevance of these results point to the deficiency of foreign aid as a sustainable cure to poverty in Africa. Though the stated intents or purposes of aid are socio-economic, the actual impact from the findings negates this. It is a momentous epoque to solve the second tragedy of foreign aid; it is high time economists and policy makers start rethinking the models and theories on which foreign aid is based. In the meantime, it is up to people who care about the poor to hold aid agencies accountable for piecemeal results. Policy implications and caveats are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa |
| JEL: | B20 F35 F50 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/002&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of monetary policy on economic activity in the proposed African monetary unions. Findings broadly show that: (1) but for financial efficiency in the EAMZ, monetary policy variables affect output neither in the short-run nor in the long-term and; (2) with the exception of financial size that impacts inflation in the EAMZ in the short-term, monetary policy variables generally have no effect on prices in the short-run. The WAMZ may not use policy instruments to offset adverse shocks to output by pursuing either an expansionary or a contractionary policy, while the EAMZ can do with the ‘financial allocation efficiency’ instrument. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E58 E59 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/013&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how financial, trade, institutional and political liberalization policies have affected financial efficiency in Africa. It uses updated data to appraise second generation reforms in order to gather fresh evidence and derive more updated policy implications. The ‘freedom to trade’ and ‘economic freedom’ indices are also employed. The following findings are established. (1) Financial liberalization mitigates financial allocation efficiency, with the magnitude of the de jure indicator (KAOPEN) higher than that of the de facto measurement (FDI). (2) Exports significantly improve financial efficiency. (3) Institutional liberalization has a positive effect on the efficiency of allocation while the effect of political liberalization is not significant. (4) Freedom of trade decreases (improves) financial (banking) system efficiency. (5) Economic freedom facilitates the transformation of mobilized financial resources (deposits) into credit for economic operators. Justifications for these nexuses are provided. |
| Keywords: | Liberalization policies; Capital allocation; Africa |
| JEL: | D6 F30 F41 F50 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–01–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/012&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | With earthshaking and heartbreaking trends in African capital flight provided by a new database, this paper complements existing literature by answering some key policy questions on the feasibility of and timeframe for policy harmonization in the battle against the economic scourge. The goal of the paper is to study beta-convergence of capital flight across a set of 37 African countries in the period 1980-2010 and to discuss the policy implications. Three main findings are established. (1) African countries with low capital flight rates are catching-up their counterparts with higher rates, implying the feasibility of policy harmonization towards fighting capital flight. (2) Petroleum-exporting and conflict-affected countries significantly play out in absolute and conditional convergences respectively. (3) Regardless of fundamental characteristics, a genuine timeframe for harmonizing policies is within a horizon of 6 to 13 years. In other words, full (100%) convergence within the specified horizon is an indication that policies and regulations can be enforced without distinction of nationality or locality. |
| Keywords: | Econometric modeling; Big push; Capital flight; Debt relief; Africa |
| JEL: | C50 E62 F34 O19 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–07–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/006&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun); Mohamed Jellal (Rabat/Morocco) |
| Abstract: | The debate by Okada & Samreth (2012, EL) and Asongu (2012, EB; 2013, EEL) on ‘the effect of foreign aid on corruption’ in its current state has the shortcoming of modeling corruption as a direct effect of development assistance. This note extends the debate by assessing the channels of foreign aid to corruption in 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. Two main findings are established to unite the two streams of the debate. (1) Foreign aid channeled through government’s consumption expenditure increases corruption. (2) Development assistance channeled via private investment and tax effort decreases corruption. It follows that foreign aid that is targeted towards reducing corruption should be channeled via private investment and tax effort, not through government expenditure. Our results integrate an indirect component and reconcile the debate by showing that, the effect could either be positive or negative depending on the transmission channel. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa |
| JEL: | B20 F35 F50 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–06–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/018&r=afr |
| By: | AfDB |
| Date: | 2013–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:978&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | In the first empirical study on how financial reforms have been instrumental in mitigating inequality through financial sector competition, we contribute at the same time to the macroeconomic literature on measuring financial development and respond to the growing field of economic development by means of informal sector promotion. Hitherto, unexplored financial sector concepts of formalization, semi-formalization and informalization are introduced. Four main findings are established: (1) while formal financial development decreases inequality, financial sector formalization increases it; (2) whereas semi-formal financial development increases inequality, the effect of financial semi-formalization is unclear; (3) both informal financial development and financial informalization have an income equalizing effect and; (4) non-formal financial development is pro-poor. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development; Shadow Economy; Poverty; Inequality; Africa |
| JEL: | E00 G20 I30 O17 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/011&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | We extend the Okada & Samreth (2012, EL) and Asongu (2012, EB) debate on ‘the effect of foreign aid on corruption’ by: not partially negating the former’s methodological underpinning (as in the latter’s approach) with a unifying empirical framework and; broadening the horizon of inquiry from corruption to eight institutional quality dynamics (rule of law, regulation quality, government effectiveness, democracy, corruption, voice & accountability, control of corruption and political stability). Core to this extension is a hypothetical contingency of the ‘institutional perils of foreign aid’ on existing institutional quality such that, the institutional downside of development assistance maybe questionable when greater domestic institutional development has taken place. Based on the hypothesis of institutional thresholds for foreign aid effectiveness, the perilous character of development assistance to institutional quality is broadly confirmed in 53 African countries for the period 1996-2010. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa |
| JEL: | B20 F35 F50 O10 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/017&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | Are formal institutions instrumental in the effect globalization mechanisms have on the human face? If so, through which freedoms channels are poverty and inequality mitigated? With the instrumentality of formal institutions: (1) de jure financial liberalization (KAOPEN) has a positive income-redistribution impact while the de facto measure (FDI) does not; (2) political liberalization has a disequalizing effect and; (3) economic freedom has a positive (negative) effect on inequality (poverty). Hence, economic freedom does not stop the wealthy from growing wealthier, but at the same time provides for conditions that mitigate poverty. The findings broadly show that, despite the substantially documented negative incidences of some channels of globalization on poverty (and inequality), formal institutions have the capacity to device policies that will give capital openness, trade and economic liberalizations a human face. Social implications and policy options are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Inequality; Poverty; Formal institutions; Africa |
| JEL: | F30 F41 F50 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/014&r=afr |
| By: | Saumik Paul (University of Nottingham, Malaysia campus (UNMC)); Andrew L. Dabalen (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimate the causal effects of conflict on dietary energy supply in Côte d’Ivoire. To identify the true impact of conflict, we use (1) pre-war and post-war household data, (2) the specific counts of conflict events across departments and (3) self-reported victimization indicators. We find robust and statistically significant evidence of households in the worst-hit conflict areas and individuals who are the direct victims of the conflict having lower dietary energy supply. The propensity score matching estimates do not alter the main findings. Other robustness checks including subsamples of households with children supports the existing findings. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, Food security, Nutrition, Evaluation, Africa |
| JEL: | I20 I3 D12 C40 H43 O15 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:156&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the adjustment of inflation with financial dynamic fundamentals of money (financial depth), credit (financial activity) and efficiency. Three main findings are established. (1) There are significant long-run relationships between inflation and the fundamentals. (2) The error correction mechanism is stable in all specifications but in case of any disequilibrium, only financial depth is significant in adjusting inflation to the long-run relationship. (3) In the long-run, short-term adjustments in the ability of banks to transform money into credit do not matter in correcting inflation. This is most probably due to surplus liquidity issues. Policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Excess money; inflation; credit; Africa |
| JEL: | E31 E51 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/003&r=afr |
| By: | Stephanie Barrientos; Margareet Visser |
| Abstract: | Abstract Horticulture value chains in South Africa are undergoing a process of rapid transformation. The sector is significant in the generation of agricultural GDP, employment and exports. European supermarkets have long been an important destination for fruit. Supermarkets source through coordinated value chains, with stringent requirements and have driven the rise of private standards. These improve quality but increase the commercial pressures and costs for growers. The expansion of South African supermarkets and of South-South trade in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and the Middle East are providing new channels for fruit and vegetables. These markets also require standards that are generally less stringent than European supermarkets and are paying comparable prices (taking cost into account), mainly focusing on product quality. Social standards are largely demanded by European supermarkets alone. Growers now have a wider range of buyers, and European supermarkets can no longer be assured of automatic availability of quality produce. Employment in the fruit sector is segmented between regular and casual workers. Regular workers have seen improvements in working conditions. In parallel casualisation has increased. It reduces labour costs but workers have greater insecurity of employment, lower remuneration and rights. Growers and packhouses need better educated and skilled workers to manage complex quality requirements of different supermarkets and improve efficiency. Agricultural work has low esteem, and the sector faces a serious shortage of skilled labour despite rural unemployment. Current public and private provision of training is insufficiently resourced to generate an adequate pool of skilled labour. Growers and workers need better returns to ensure the resilience of quality horticulture value chains to supermarkets. Public and private policy needs to enhance the skills and empowerment of workers, and support social provision to increase the appeal of working in horticulture. |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:ctg-2012-12&r=afr |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. African Dept. |
| Date: | 2013–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/284&r=afr |
| By: | Sarah J. Baird; Ephraim Chirwa; Jacobus de Hoop; Berk Özler |
| Abstract: | Interventions targeting adolescent girls are seen as a key component in the fight to break the cycle of poverty in developing countries. Policies that enable them to reach their full potential can have a strong impact not only on their own wellbeing, but also on that of future generations. This paper summarizes the short-term impacts of a cash transfer program on the empowerment of adolescent girls in Malawi during and immediately after the two-year intervention. We find that the program, which transferred cash directly to school-age girls as well as their parents, had effects on a broad range of important domains – including increased access to financial resources, improved schooling outcomes, decreased teen pregnancies and early marriages, better health – and generally enabled beneficiaries to improve their agency within their households. Underlying these overall impacts, the experiment revealed important differences in program effects between young women who were in school at the start of the intervention and those that were not, as well as between young women who received cash transfers conditional on regular school attendance and those who received cash unconditionally. The results point to the potential role that cash transfer programs can play in improving the lives of adolescent girls in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the heterogeneity of effects under different program designs. |
| JEL: | C93 I10 I21 I38 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19479&r=afr |
| By: | Ferede, Tadele; Gebreegziabher, Zenebe; Mekonnen, Alemu; Guta, Fantu; Levin, Jörgen; Köhlin, Gunnar |
| Abstract: | In this study, we assess the economy-wide effects of biofuel investment in Ethiopia, with a focus on the external sector. The Government of Ethiopia has been revising its energy policy to switch from imported fossil oil to domestically produced biofuels, partly in response to climate change and partly in response to rising world oil prices, which leave oil-importing countries such as Ethiopia vulnerable to external oil price shocks. In Ethiopia, the value of oil imports relative to export earnings has increased over time, which has negatively impacted its balance of payments. Specifically, this paper assesses the implications of biofuels investment for growth and the external sector in Ethiopia using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study is based on primary data collected from biofuel firms in Ethiopia and assumes that the amount of land is fixed in a given period. The results indicate that the macroeconomic and sectoral effects of biofuel investment in the context of Ethiopia are mixed. Biofuel expansion can help to improve economic growth if such expansion generates spillover effects, with jatropha and castor bean found to have the strongest positive impact on the economy. Without spillovers, the effect of biofuel investment on economic growth is negligible, indicating the importance of technology transfers. The impact on the external sector, especially on exports and imports, is negative, as biofuels expansion affects both the real exchange rate and production of export commodities. This negative effect might be mitigated by policies encouraging biofuels investment to move in a direction that does not compete with the use of land for traditional export crops. |
| Keywords: | biofuels, CGE model, economic growth, external sector, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | O11 O2 O47 O55 Q42 |
| Date: | 2013–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-13-08-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – While in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate. In this paper, we examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period 1987-2010. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of VECMs and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long-run and short-run effects respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – But for slight exceptions, the tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence. Hypothesis 1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception Hypothesis 1 is valid. Hypothesis 2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real GDP output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid. Practical Implications – A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country/regional specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity, caveats and future research directions are also discussed. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E58 E59 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/005&r=afr |
| By: | Cornelia Staritz; Mike Morris |
| Abstract: | Abstract Over the past decade, several Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries have developed or expanded export-oriented apparel industries in the context of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement (MFA) quotas and preferential market access, most importantly under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Madagascar is different to the other main SSA low-income country (LIC) apparel exporters – Kenya, Lesotho and Swaziland – given its more diverse end markets and ownership structures and the political instability that led to the loss of AGOA status at the end of 2009. This paper assesses the development of Madagascar’s export-oriented apparel industry and economic and social upgrading dynamics in particular in the context of the AGOA loss. It identifies four types of firms and value chains that differ with regard to ownership patterns, end markets and, most importantly, ‘local embeddedness’, with important implications for both economic upgrading dynamics and possibilities and the sustainability of the industry. The paper concludes that, despite the contraction in the export-oriented apparel industry post-AGOA, Madagascar is still a more successful apparel producer in terms of economic upgrading than the other main apparel-exporting LICs in SSA. The key to this trajectory lies in the differentiation of global value chain (GVC) relationships, local embeddedness and export diversification. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:ctg-2013-21&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – A major lesson of the EMU crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the present study has complemented existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of VECMs and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long-run and short-run effects respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – Hypothesis 1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (Broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). Hypothesis 2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. Firstly, the absence of co-integration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the long-term dimension of the hypothesis on the neutrality of money. The validity of its short-run dimension is more relevant in the UEMOA zone (with the exception of overall money supply) than in the CEMAC zone (in which only financial dynamics of ‘financial system efficiency’ and financial activity support the hypothesis). Practical Implications – (1) Compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. (2) The CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect money supply), we have provided a significant contribution to the empirics of monetary policy. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries and monetary unions. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa |
| JEL: | E51 E52 E58 E59 O55 |
| Date: | 2013–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/016&r=afr |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. African Dept.;International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department |
| Date: | 2013–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/282&r=afr |
| By: | Tomoya Matsumoto (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies) |
| Abstract: | We used a randomized control trial to measure how the free distribution of hybrid seeds and chemical fertilizers for maize production affected their adoption by small-scale farmers in the subsequent seasons. Information on their demand for the same inputs was collected through sales meetings which we organized in 2009 and 2011 where the inputs were actually sold. It revealed that the demand for the inputs of the free-input recipients was significantly higher in both 2009 and 2011 than that of non-recipients; that of the neighbors of the recipients fell in-between. The initial treatment assignment has a persistent influence on the farmers' demand over the two years whereas the difference between the free-input recipients and their neighbors has been reduced to some extent. The reduction of their gap in the application level of fertilizers is partly driven by social learning through information networks. However, there was no clear evidence of learning effects from peers on the demand for the hybrid seeds. One possible explanation of these mixed results is due to slow dissemination of the new inputs with low profitability. (JEL O13, O33, O55) |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ngi:dpaper:13-18&r=afr |
| By: | Michelle Christian; Francis Mwaura |
| Abstract: | Abstract Over the last decade, Uganda has re-emerged as a global tourism destination after years of instability. The growth of Uganda’s tourism global production network, however, is slow and is characterized by a few elite firms and highly controlled travel through tightly coordinated distribution channels. Capturing the Gains research asked how and if economic upgrading in the tourism global production network was happening in Uganda, and if social upgrading followed, by exploring one tourism location: Murchison Falls National Park. The findings suggest that tourism firms pursued vertical and horizontal economic upgrading strategies, but the social upgrading outcomes were mixed. Social upgrading for permanent workers followed economic upgrading for hotels and tourism service providers in Murchison Falls National Park, but not for community members outside the Park. Several aspects, such as the role of Uganda Wildlife Authority concessions, distribution access, and local labour market dynamics, are motivating factors in influencing upgrading dynamics. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:ctg-2013-19&r=afr |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. African Dept. |
| Date: | 2013–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:13/286&r=afr |
| By: | Timothy Hinks (University of the West of England, Bristol) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to test whether a number of fractionalization variables that capture cultural and economic diversity have any impact on reported satisfaction as well as happiness. Controlling for standard economic and non-economic variables, we test whether (i) ethno-linguistic, (ii) religious and (iii) income fractionalization at the cluster level have any impact on well-being. The findings indicate that income fractionalization consistently predicts lower subjective life satisfaction when the individual's household income is controlled for, and that religious fractionalization is correlated with lower life satisfaction. Ethno-linguistic fractionalization though does not correlate with life satisfaction. Extensions of the model include adding interaction terms which indicate that ethno-linguistic fractionalization is important to specific ethno-linguistic groups. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwe:wpaper:20121202&r=afr |
| By: | Robert Goedegebuure (Associate Professor International Business at Maastricht School of Management MsM); Kennedy Ssejjemba (DBA candidate at MsM and lecturer at Makerere University, Uganda); André de Waal (Associate Professor at MsM and director of HPO Center, Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | Over the last decades partnerships have become a pervasive element in studies on the organization of social and economic activities at both national and international levels. It is worthy of note that notwithstanding the popularity of the concept as evidenced by the vast amount of articles on the topic, Barnes & Brown (2011) recently described partnerships as of poor theoretical appeal, under-defined, and poorly scrutinized. Their conclusion is mainly inspired by experiences in the area of economic development, as partnerships are explicitly mentioned in the Millennium Development Goals (goal eight refers to “global partnerships for development”). A loose definition of partnerships as linkages between independent organizations for achieving economic and social objectives includes partnerships that widely differ in terms of size, scope and complexity. Partnerships may range from the UN/Nike foundation for adolescent girls in developing countries; to multi-stakeholder approaches (between NGOs, local governments, multinational companies and farmers); and relatively simple agreements at local levels (Toyota’s partnerships with suppliers; farmers partnering with agricultural lead firms). It is striking that most of the literature focuses on the logic of types of partnerships while neglecting the effectiveness and its key determinants of partnerships. In this article we try to contribute filling this void by focusing on relatively simple bilateral partnerships between farmers and lead firms in the value chains of pineapples in Uganda and Kenya. Rather than focusing on the logic of the (type of) partnership per se, we use data on (i) the assessment of relevant partnership characteristics, (ii) the organizational strength of the partner, and (iii) the outcomes of the partnership in terms of their capacity to upgrade the farmers. |
| JEL: | L23 L25 Q12 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msm:wpaper:2013/27&r=afr |
| By: | Felix Meier zu Selhausen; Erik Stam |
| Abstract: | This study on female entrepreneurs in Western Uganda provides empirical evidence on the socio-economic effects of participation in a microfinance cooperative of both the female entrepreneur and her husband. Participation by female entrepreneurs in a microfinance cooperative is not an unconditional blessing: even though it does deliver higher household incomes, it might also deteriorate the female's household decision-making power when her husband participates in the same self-help group of the microfinance cooperative. This offers new insights for development policy and for entrepreneurship scholars to study the bright and dark sides of microfinance. |
| Keywords: | microfinance, cooperatives, female entrepreneurship, coffee, Uganda |
| JEL: | J16 J54 L26 N27 O15 O16 Q13 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:1310&r=afr |
| By: | Stephanie Barrientos |
| Abstract: | Abstract Transformation of global sourcing over recent decades has significant implications for gender relations of production in the developing world. Analysis of global production networks and value chains (GPN/GVC) provides important insights into the changing dynamics of global sourcing and its embeddedness within diverse societies and countries. However, the gender dimension of this process is often overlooked. Feminist analysis provides important insights into a changing gender division of labour within global production, but rarely links it to the commercial dynamics of GPN/GVCs. This paper develops a gender production network analysis to inform a comparative examination of gender production relations in cocoa. It draws on case studies in Ghana and India. It asks in what ways are GPN/GVCs bearers of gender transformation, and what are the implications for the sustainability of quality cocoa sourcing by chocolate manufacturers? The paper finds that gendered social norms and practices in both countries mean that women’s contribution to cocoa production has long been under-valued, with women largely relegated to the position of unpaid family or casual labour. However, within the gender division of labour women do play an important role in certain activities that are increasingly recognised in the industry as critical to ensuring good yields and quality production. These are of increasing importance to consumer-focused brand name chocolate companies. Recognition and support for women’s role could make an important contribution, both to the empowerment of women cocoa farmers and workers, but also to the future sustainability of quality cocoa sourcing. |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwp:bwppap:18613&r=afr |
| By: | Catia Batista (Faculdade de Economia, Universidade Nova de Lisboa and IZA); Dan Silverman (Arizona State University and NBER); Dean Yang (Department of Economics and Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, NBER, and BREAD) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the determinants of giving in a lab-in-the-field experiment with large stakes. Study participants in urban Mozambique play dictator games where their counterpart is the closest person to them outside their household. Dictators share more with counterparts when they have the option of giving in kind (in the form of goods), compared to giving that must be in cash. Qualitative post-experiment responses suggest that this effect is driven by a desire to control how recipients use gifted resources. Standard economic determinants such as the rate of return to giving and the size of the endowment also affect giving, but the effects of even large changes in these determinants are significantly smaller than the effect of the in-kind option. Our results support theories of giving where the utility of givers depends on the composition (not just the level) of gift-recipient expenditures, and givers thus seek control over transferred resources. |
| Keywords: | sharing, altruism, giving, dictator game, inter-household transfers, Mozambique |
| JEL: | C92 C93 D01 D03 D64 O17 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:1321&r=afr |
| By: | Mboutchouang, Vincent De Paul; Kenneck, Joseph Massil; Mbenga Bindop, Kunz Modeste |
| Abstract: | This study aims to contribute to the debate on the determinants of the informal firms’ outcomes by focusing on the potential influence that the family background can have on informal business outcomes in Cameroon. Using data from the Survey on Employment and the Informal Sector (SESI 2) in Cameroun, this study shows that children of self-employed father and/or mother have a better value added, sales in some cases, than entrepreneur that parents does not have this status. This comparative advantage is strengthened when the transmission is between a father and his son or when the child, regardless of gender, is engaged in the same branch of activity as his parent(s). This transmission consists of the dissemination of a stock of human capital in the form of specific skills. Résumé Cette étude vise à contribuer au débat sur les résultats des entreprises du secteur informel en se focalisant sur l’éventuel influence que peut avoir l’environnement familial sur la performance d’une firme. A partir, des données de l’Enquête sur l’Emploi et le Secteur Informel au Cameroun (EESI 2), l’étude montre que les individus ayant eu un père et/ou une mère entrepreneurs réalisent une valeur ajoutée et des ventes, plus importantes que les entrepreneurs descendants de parents n’ayant pas ce statut. Cet avantage comparatif se renforce lorsque la transmission s’établit entre le père et son fils ou lorsque l’enfant, indépendamment du genre, s’engage à son compte propre dans la même branche d’activité que son père et/ou sa mère. Cette transmission consiste principalement à une diffusion d’un stock de capital humain sous forme de compétences spécifiques. |
| Keywords: | Intergenerational transmission, second-generation entrepreneur, informal firm, business outcomes |
| JEL: | J24 L26 |
| Date: | 2013–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:50133&r=afr |
| By: | Onjala, Joseph; Ndiritu, Simon Wagura; Stage, Jesper |
| Abstract: | This study uses household survey data from four Kenyan towns to examine the effect of households’ characteristics and risk perceptions on their decision to treat/filter water as well as their choice of main drinking water source. Because the two decisions may be jointly made by the household, a seemingly unrelated bivariate probit model is estimated. It turns out that treating non-piped water and using piped water as a main drinking water source are substitutes. The evidence supports the finding that perceived risks significantly correlate with a household’s decision to treat/filter unimproved non-pipe water before drinking it. The study also finds that higher connection fees reduce the likelihood of households connecting to the piped network. Because the current connection fee acts as a cost hurdle that deters households from getting a connection, the study recommends a system where households pay the connection fee in instalments, through a prepaid water scheme or through a subsidy scheme. |
| Keywords: | separated by commas |
| Date: | 2013–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-13-10-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the relevance of intellectual property rights (IPRs) in the knowledge economy (KE)-finance nexus using the four variables identified under the World Bank’s knowledge economy index (KEI) and seven financial intermediary dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size. Three main findings are established: (1) education increases financial dynamics of depth and size; (2) economic incentives by means of credit facilities (trade openness) mitigate financial dynamics of efficiency and activity (financial dynamics of depth and size) and; (3) ICT and FDI both improve financial depth and decrease financial size (with FDI having an additional edge of improving financial activity). As a policy implication, the enforcement of IPRs is not a general and sufficient condition for positive KE-finance nexuses. Hence, blanket upholding of IPRs to achieve such positive linkages may not be successful unless policy is contingent on the prevailing ‘KE specific component’ trends and dynamics of financial development. |
| Keywords: | Financial development; Knowledge economy; Intellectual property rights |
| JEL: | K42 O10 O34 O38 P48 |
| Date: | 2013–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/023&r=afr |
| By: | Asongu Simplice (Yaoundé/Cameroun) |
| Abstract: | Purpose – This paper assesses dynamics of the knowledge economy (KE)-finance nexus using the four variables identified under the World Bank’s knowledge economy index (KEI) and seven financial intermediary dynamics of depth, efficiency, activity and size. Design/methodology/approach – Principal Component Analysis is used to reduce the dimensions of KE components before dynamic panel GMM estimation techniques are employed to examine the nexuses. Findings – Four main findings are established. (1) Education improves financial depth and financial efficiency but mitigates financial size. (2) But for a thin exception (trade’s incidence on money supply), economic incentives (credit facilities and trade) are not consistently favorable to financial development. (3) ICT improves only financial size and has a negative effect on other financial dynamics. (4) Proxies for innovation (journals and FDI) have a positive effect on financial activity; journals (FDI) have (has) a negative (positive) effect on liquid liabilities and; journals and FDI both have negative incidences on money supply and banking system efficiency respectively. Practical Implications – As a policy implication, the KE-finance nexus is a complex and multidimensional relationship. Hence, blind and blanket policy formulation to achieve positive linkages may not be successful unless policy-making strategy is contingent on the prevailing ‘KE specific component’ trends and dynamics of financial development. Policy makers should improve the economic incentive dimension of KE that overwhelmingly and consistently deters financial development, owing to surplus liquidity issues. Originality/value – As far as we have reviewed, this is the first paper to examine the KE-finance nexus with the plethora of KE dimensions defined by the World Bank’s KEI and all the dynamics identified by the Financial Development and Structure Database (FDSD). |
| Keywords: | Financial development; Knowledge Economy |
| JEL: | G21 O10 O34 P00 P48 |
| Date: | 2013–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:13/022&r=afr |