nep-afr New Economics Papers
on Africa
Issue of 2013‒07‒28
twenty papers chosen by
Quentin Wodon
World Bank

  1. Working Paper 178 - Holding Excess Foreign Reserves Versus Infrastructure Finance: What should Africa do? By AfDB
  2. Fighting African capital flight: timelines for the adoption of common policies By Asongu , Simplice A
  3. How would monetary policy matter in the proposed African monetary unions? Evidence from output and prices By Asongu , Simplice A
  4. The Economic Consequences of China-Africa Relations: Debunking Myths in the Debate By Asongu , Simplice A; Aminkeng, Gilbert A. A
  5. Traditional food crop marketing in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does gender matter? By Christina Handschuch; Meike Wollni
  6. Fighting African Capital Flight: Empirics on Benchmarking Policy Harmonization By Asongu, Simplice A
  7. Consult your gods: the questionable economics of development assistance in Africa By Asongu , Simplice A
  8. The contribution of African women to economic growth and development in post-colonial Africa : historical perspectives and policy implications By Akyeampong, Emmanuel; Fofack, Hippolyte
  9. Improved production systems for traditional food crops: The case of finger millet in Western Kenya By Christina Handschuch; Meike Wollni
  10. The long Term Effects of the Printing Press in Sub Saharan Africa By Julia Cagé; Valeria Rueda
  11. Aid and development: Issues and reflections By Michael Tribe
  12. Gender, Social Norms and Household Production in Burkina Faso By Harounan Kazianga; Zaki Wahhaj
  13. South African Riots: Repercussion of the Global Food Crisis and US Drought By Yavni Bar-Yam; Marco Lagi; Yaneer Bar-Yam
  14. Is environmentally-induced income variability a driver of migration? A macroeconomic perspective By Luca Marchiori; Jean-Francois Maystadt; Ingmar Schumacher
  15. Does Money Matter in Africa? New Empirics on Long- and Short-run Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Prices By Asongu , Simplice A
  16. New Empirics of monetary policy dynamics: evidence from the CFA franc zones By Asongu , Simplice A
  17. Coercion, Conflict, and Commodities By Jacobus Cilliers
  18. Modelling Agri-Food Policy Impact at Farm-household Level in Developing Countries (FSSIM-Dev): Application to Sierra Leone By Kamel Louhichi; Sergio Gomez y Paloma; Hatem Belhouchette; Thomas Allen; Jacques Fabre; María Blanco Fonseca; Roza Chenoune; Szvetlana Acs; Guillermo Flichman
  19. Large-Scale Agricultural Investments under Poor Land Governance Systems: Actors and Institutions in the Case of Zambia By Kerstin Nolte
  20. Political crisis and suspension of duty-free access in Madagascar : assessment of impacts on the garment industry By Fukunishi, Takahiro

  1. By: AfDB
    Date: 2013–07–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:478&r=afr
  2. By: Asongu , Simplice A
    Abstract: This paper provides an exhaustive assessment of feasible horizons for policy harmonization against African capital flight. The empirical evidence is based on a methodological innovation on common policy initiatives and the results are premised on 15 fundamental characteristics of African capital flight based on income-levels, legal origins, natural resources, political stability and religious domination. Based on the findings, a genuine standard-setting timeframe is in the horizon of 6-13 years. Within the timeframe, common policies are feasible and could be enforced without distinction of nationality or locality in identified fundamental characteristics with full convergence.
    Keywords: Econometric modeling; Big push; Capital flight; Debt relief; Africa
    JEL: C50 E62 F34 O19 O55
    Date: 2013–01–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48493&r=afr
  3. By: Asongu , Simplice A
    Abstract: We analyze the effects of monetary policy on economic activity in the proposed African monetary unions. Findings broadly show that: (1) but for financial efficiency in the EAMZ, monetary policy variables affect output neither in the short-run nor in the long-term and; (2) with the exception of financial size that impacts inflation in the EAMZ in the short-term, monetary policy variables generally have no effect on prices in the short-run. The WAMZ may not use policy instruments to offset adverse shocks to output by pursuing either an expansionary or a contractionary policy, while the EAMZ can do with the ‘financial allocation efficiency’ instrument. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa
    JEL: E51 E52 E58 E59 O55
    Date: 2013–01–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48496&r=afr
  4. By: Asongu , Simplice A; Aminkeng, Gilbert A. A
    Abstract: This study dissects with great acuteness some of the big questions on China-Africa relations in order to debunk burgeoning myths surrounding the nexus. It reviews a wealth of recent literature and presents the debate in three schools of thought. No substantial empirical evidence is found to back-up sinister prophesies of coming catastrophe from critics of the direction of China-Africa relations. In the mean, the relationship from an economic standpoint is promising and encouraging but more needs to be done regarding multilateral relations, improvement of institutions and sustainability of resources management. A number of positive signs suggest that China is heading toward the direction which would provide openings for a multipolar dialogue. While benefiting in the short-run, African governments have the capacity to tailor this relationship and address some socio-economic matters arising that may negatively affect the nexus in the long-term. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Foreign direct investment; direct trade impacts; China; Africa
    JEL: F19 F21 O10 O19 O55
    Date: 2013–07–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48468&r=afr
  5. By: Christina Handschuch (Georg-August University Göttingen); Meike Wollni (Georg-August University Göttingen)
    Abstract: Specialization and commercialization of agricultural production is seen as a key to lift small-scale farmers in developing countries out of poverty. While participation in high-value markets has been shown to be beneficial for farmers, especially the smallest and least endowed farmers are often excluded from these markets due to high transaction costs. In this context, marketing traditional food crops poses an important income alternative. The present study aims to contribute to the scarce literature on traditional food crops by analyzing the factors influencing (a) the households’ decision to participate in the finger millet market and (b) the selling prices obtained by the household. A special focus of our analysis lies on the role of gender and collective action. Based on household data from 270 finger millet producers, a probit model on market participation and a linear regression model on the selling price are estimated. Results show that participation in a finger millet group positively influences the decision to market finger millet. While female household members who do not participate in a group are disadvantaged in terms of selling prices, there is no gender effect on selling prices if a female household member participates in a finger millet group.
    Keywords: Kenya; finger millet; marketing; collective action; gender
    Date: 2013–07–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:142&r=afr
  6. By: Asongu, Simplice A
    Abstract: With earthshaking and heartbreaking trends in African capital flight provided by a new database, this paper complements existing literature by answering some key policy questions on the feasibility of and timeframe for policy harmonization in the battle against the economic scourge. The goal of the paper is to study beta-convergence of capital flight across a set of 37 African countries in the period 1980-2010 and to discuss the policy implications. Three main findings are established. (1) African countries with low capital flight rates are catching-up their counterparts with higher rates, implying the feasibility of policy harmonization towards fighting capital flight. (2) Petroleum-exporting and conflict-affected countries significantly play out in absolute and conditional convergences respectively. (3) Regardless of fundamental characteristics, a genuine timeframe for harmonizing policies is within a horizon of 6 to 13 years. In other words, full (100%) convergence within the specified horizon is an indication that policies and regulations can be enforced without distinction of nationality or locality.
    Keywords: Econometric modeling; Big push; Capital flight; Debt relief; Africa
    JEL: C50 E62 F34 O19 O55
    Date: 2013–07–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48469&r=afr
  7. By: Asongu , Simplice A
    Abstract: This paper assesses the aid-development nexus in 52 African countries using updated data (1996-2010) and a new indicator of human development (adjusted for inequality). The effects of Total Net Official Development Assistance (NODA), NODA from the Development Assistance Committee (DAC) and NODA from Multilateral donors on economic prosperity (at national and per capita levels) are also examined. The findings broadly indicate that development assistance is detrimental to GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and inequality adjusted human development. The magnitude of negativity (which is consistent across specifications and development dynamics) is highest for NODA from Multilateral donors, followed by NODA from DAC countries. Given concerns on the achievement of the MDGs, the relevance of these results point to the deficiency of foreign aid as a sustainable cure to poverty in Africa. Though the stated intents or purposes of aid are socio-economic, the actual impact from the findings negates this. It is a momentous epoque to solve the second tragedy of foreign aid; it is high time economists and policy makers start rethinking the models and theories on which foreign aid is based. In the meantime, it is up to people who care about the poor to hold aid agencies accountable for piecemeal results. Policy implications and caveats are discussed.
    Keywords: Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa
    JEL: B20 F35 F50 O10 O55
    Date: 2013–07–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48475&r=afr
  8. By: Akyeampong, Emmanuel; Fofack, Hippolyte
    Abstract: This paper draws on history, anthropology, and economics to examine the dynamics and extent of women's contribution to growth and economic development in post-colonial Africa. The paper investigates the paradox of increased female enrollment in education and the persistence of gender discrimination in labor force participation; it also considers the overwhelming importance of the informal economy in female economic activity. The first axis the paper studies is whether reducing educational gender gaps enhances growth in per capita gross domestic product and reduces female fertility rates and infant mortality. The question is, why would some African countries resist this pattern? The second axis examines agriculture and home production. Women's economic activities in the informal economy largely represent the commercialization of domestic skills and dependence on social networks. The shunting of female production to the informal sector in the male-dominated colonial economy is easy to understand, but why has the informal economy persisted where female production is concerned well beyond the colonial period? The paper attempts to explain these trajectories by using country case studies on Senegal, Botswana, and Kenya. Although women's contribution to growth and economic development seems to be positive and significant in predominantly Christian and mineral-rich economies, it is more constrained in pronounced Muslim dominated countries and agrarian economies. At the same time, impressive uniform growth in informal sector production in recent years suggests that occupational job segregation and gender inequality remain strong across the region, despite the apparent loosening of traditional norms and cultural beliefs, most notably illustrated by the reduction in educational gender gaps and increased female labor force participation rates.
    Keywords: Gender and Development,Population Policies,Primary Education,Gender and Law,Achieving Shared Growth
    Date: 2013–07–01
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6537&r=afr
  9. By: Christina Handschuch (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Meike Wollni (Georg-August-University Göttingen)
    Abstract: Increasing agricultural productivity through the dissemination of improved cropping practices remains one of the biggest challenges of this century. A considerable amount of literature is dedicated to the adoption of improved cropping practices among smallholder farmers in developing countries. While most studies focus on cash crops or main staple crops, traditional food grains like finger millet have received little attention in the past decades. The present study aims to assess the factors that are influencing adoption decisions among finger millet farmers in Western Kenya. Based on cross-sectional household data from 270 farmers, we estimate a multivariate probit model to compare the adoption decisions in finger millet and maize production. While improved practices such as the use of a modern variety or chemical fertilizer are well known in maize production, they are less common in finger millet production. Results show that social networks as well as access to extension services play a crucial role in the adoption of improved finger millet practices, while the same variables are of minor importance for the adoption of improved maize practices. A Cobb-Douglas production function shows a positive effect of modern varieties and chemical fertilizer on finger millet yields.
    Keywords: finger millet; Kenya; technology adoption; social networks
    Date: 2013–07–15
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:141&r=afr
  10. By: Julia Cagé (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - Ecole des Ponts ParisTech - Ecole normale supérieure de Paris - ENS Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), Harvard University [Cambridge] - University of Harvard); Valeria Rueda (IEP Paris - Sciences Po Paris - Institut d'études politiques de Paris - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris - PRES Sorbonne Paris Cité - Fondation Nationale des Sciences Politiques [FNSP])
    Abstract: This article examines the long-term consequences of the introduction of the printing press in the 19th century on newspaper readership and other civic attitudes in sub-Saharan Africa. In sub-Saharan Africa, Protestant missionaries were the first both to import the printing press technology and to allow the indigenous population to use it. We build a new geocoded dataset locating Protestant missions in 1903. This dataset includes, for each mission station, the geographic location and its characteristics, as well as the educational and health related investments undertaken by the mission. We show that proximity to a historical missionary settlement endowed with a printing press significantly increases newspaper readership today within regions located close to historical mission settlements. We also find a positive impact on political participation at the community level. Results are robust to a variety of identification strategies that attempt to address the potential endogenous selection of missions into printing and externalities on education and literacy.
    Keywords: Printing press ; Protestant missions ; Historical persistence ; Newspaper readership ; Political participation
    Date: 2013–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-00844446&r=afr
  11. By: Michael Tribe (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: The paper has three main sections. The first is a review of two particular propositions which appear in Dambisa Moyo’s 2009 book Dead Aid which were not subjected to rigorous analysis in the reviews which appeared following its publication. The finding is that neither proposition survives serious scrutiny – that aid is responsible for most of sub-Saharan Africa’s economic woes and that the international bond market represents a viable alternative to foreign aid for the finance of development-oriented investment. The second questions some of the characteristics and uses of the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA), particularly focussing on the use of an essentially ordinal measure in cardinal applications. The third subjects the UK Department for International Development’s Needs-Effectiveness Index to critical review, concluding that further consideration of its attributes is necessary.
    Keywords: developing countries, foreign aid, sub-Saharan Africa, book review
    JEL: F35 O2 O24 O55 Y3
    Date: 2013–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:1309&r=afr
  12. By: Harounan Kazianga (Oklahoma State University); Zaki Wahhaj (Department of International Development, Oxford University)
    Abstract: Empirical studies of intra-household allocation has revealed that, in many instances, gender is an important determinant in the allocation of resources within the household. Yet, within the theoretical literature, why gender matters within the household remains an open question. In this paper, we propose a simple model of intra-household allocation based on a particular social institution for the organisation of agricultural production practised among certain ethnic groups in West Africa. We highlight how this institution, while resolving certain problems of commitment and informational asymmetry, can also lead to a gendered pattern in the allocation of productive resources and consumption within the household. Using a survey of agricultural households in Burkina Faso, we show, consistent with this theory, that plots owned by the head of the household are farmed more intensively, and achieves higher yields, than plots with similar characteristics owned by other household members. Male and female family members who do not head the household achieve similar yields. We argue that the higher yields achieved by the household head may be explained in terms of social norms that require him to spend the earnings from some plots under his control exclusively on household public goods, which in turn provides other family members the incentive to voluntarily contribute labour on his farms. Using expenditures data, and measures of rainfall to capture weather-related shocks to agricultural income, we show that the household head has, indeed, a higher marginal propensity to spend on household public goods than other household members. The fact that the head of the household is usually male accounts for the gendered pattern in labour allocation and yields across different farm plots.
    Keywords: Intra-household allocation, social norms, gender, household public goods
    JEL: O12 D13 Q1
    Date: 2010–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:okl:wpaper:0910&r=afr
  13. By: Yavni Bar-Yam; Marco Lagi; Yaneer Bar-Yam
    Abstract: High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions had predominantly occurred. Global prices at this level create conditions where an exacerbating local circumstance can trigger unrest. Global corn (maize) prices reached new highs, and countries that depend mostly on maize are more likely to experience high local food prices and associated pressures toward social unrest. Here we analyze the conditions in South Africa, which is a heavily maize-dependent country. Coinciding with increased consumer food indices this summer, massive labor strikes in mining and agriculture have led to the greatest single incident of social violence since the fall of apartheid in 1994. Worker demands for dramatic pay increases reflect that their wages have not kept up with drastic increases in the prices of necessities, especially food. Without attention to the global food price situation, more incidents of food-based social instability are likely to arise. Other countries that have manifested food-related protests and riots in 2012 include Haiti and Argentina. Moreover, these cases of unrest are just the most visible symptom of widespread suffering of poor populations worldwide due to elevated food prices. Policy decisions that would directly impact food prices are decreasing the conversion of maize to ethanol in the US, and reimposing regulations on commodity futures markets to prevent excessive speculation, which we have shown causes bubbles and crashes in these markets. Absent such policy actions, governments and companies should track and mitigate the impact of high and volatile food prices on citizens and employees.
    Date: 2013–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1307.5268&r=afr
  14. By: Luca Marchiori; Jean-Francois Maystadt; Ingmar Schumacher
    Abstract: It was recently suggested that the role of environmentally-induced income variability as a determinant of migration has been studied little to none. We provide a theoretical discussion and an overview of the empirical literature on this. We also extend a previous empirical study of ours by including income variability. Our findings lead us to acknowledge that income variability is a negligible driver of migration decisions at the macroeconomic level.
    Keywords: Income variability, international migration, rural-urban migration, weather anomalies, sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: F22 Q54 R13
    Date: 2013–05–17
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipg:wpaper:17&r=afr
  15. By: Asongu , Simplice A
    Abstract: Purpose – While in developed economies, changes in monetary policy affect real economic activity in the short-run but only prices in the long-run, the question of whether these tendencies apply to developing countries remains open to debate. In this paper, we examine the effects of monetary policy on economic activity using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics in inflation-chaotic African countries for the period 1987-2010. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of VECMs and simple Granger causality models are used to estimate the long-run and short-run effects respectively. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – But for slight exceptions, the tested hypotheses are valid under monetary policy independence and dependence. Hypothesis 1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run. For the first-half (long-run dimension) of the hypothesis, permanent changes in monetary policy variables (depth, efficiency, activity and size) affect permanent variations in prices in the long-term. But in cases of disequilibriums only financial dynamic fundamentals of depth and size significantly adjust inflation to the cointegration relations. With respect to the second-half (short-run view) of the hypothesis, monetary policy does not overwhelmingly affect prices in the short-term. Hence, but for a thin exception Hypothesis 1 is valid. Hypothesis 2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-term. With regard to the short-term dimension of the hypothesis, only financial dynamics of depth and size affect real GDP output in the short-run. As concerns the long-run dimension, the neutrality of monetary policy has been confirmed. Hence, the hypothesis is also broadly valid. Practical Implications – A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles, credit expansions and inflationary tendencies, inflation targeting and monetary policy independence implications. Country/regional specific implications, the manner in which the findings reconcile the ongoing debate, measures for fighting surplus liquidity, caveats and future research directions are also discussed. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect monetary policy), we provide significant contributions to the empirics of money. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa
    JEL: E51 E52 E58 E59 O55
    Date: 2013–01–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48494&r=afr
  16. By: Asongu , Simplice A
    Abstract: Purpose – A major lesson of the EMU crisis is that serious disequilibria in a monetary union result from arrangements not designed to be robust to a variety of shocks. With the specter of this crisis looming substantially and scarring existing monetary zones, the present study has complemented existing literature by analyzing the effects of monetary policy on economic activity (output and prices) in the CEMAC and UEMOA CFA franc zones. Design/methodology/approach – VARs within the frameworks of VECMs and Granger causality models are used to estimate the long-run and short-run effects respectively. Impulse response functions are further used to assess the tendencies of significant Granger causality findings. A battery of robustness checks are also employed to ensure consistency in the specifications and results. Findings – Hypothesis 1: Monetary policy variables affect prices in the long-run but not in the short-run in the CFA zones (Broadly untrue). This invalidity is more pronounced in CEMAC (relative to all monetary policy variables) than in UEMOA (with regard to financial dynamics of activity and size). Hypothesis 2: Monetary policy variables influence output in the short-term but not in the long-run in the CFA zones. Firstly, the absence of co-integration among real output and the monetary policy variables in both zones confirm the long-term dimension of the hypothesis on the neutrality of money. The validity of its short-run dimension is more relevant in the UEMOA zone (with the exception of overall money supply) than in the CEMAC zone (in which only financial dynamics of ‘financial system efficiency’ and financial activity support the hypothesis). Practical Implications – (1) Compared to the CEMAC region, the UEMOA zone’s monetary authority has more policy instruments for offsetting output shocks but fewer instruments for the management of short-run inflation. (2) The CEMAC region is more inclined to non-traditional policy regimes while the UEMOA zone dances more to the tune of traditional discretionary monetary policy arrangements. A wide range of policy implications are discussed. Inter alia: implications for the long-run neutrality of money and business cycles; implications for credit expansions and inflationary tendencies; implications of the findings to the ongoing debate; country-specific implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity. Originality/value – By using a plethora of hitherto unemployed financial dynamics (that broadly reflect money supply), we have provided a significant contribution to the empirics of monetary policy. The conclusion of the analysis is a valuable contribution to the scholarly and policy debate on how money matters as an instrument of economic activity in developing countries and monetary unions.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy; Banking; Inflation; Output effects; Africa
    JEL: E51 E52 E58 E59 O55
    Date: 2013–01–14
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:48495&r=afr
  17. By: Jacobus Cilliers
    Abstract: Why do armed groups sometimes coerce and sometimes not? Civilian suffering due to coercion in conflicts is larger; yet, anecdotal evidence suggests that armed groups often choose not to coerce. To explain the observed variation in coercive practices, I combine a two-sector specific-factos trade model with a model of violence. Armed tgroups operating in the resourc esector and allocate military reosurces between conflict and coercion, which captures more land and labour respectively. The model shows that coercion depends, not only on economic factors, but also the military landscape and the interactin between the two. First, coercion is higher if labour scare or extraction labour-intensive. Second, coercion is high if one group is dominant, relative to the others. Third, the impact of the prcie of the commodity depends on the distribution of military strength: coercion increases with price if one group is dominant, but this effect is reversed if military power is highly decentralised. The first result is consistent with historical accounts of the re-emergence of serfdom in 16th century Russia, and the prevalence of slavery in West Africa. The second result explains why coercion decreased in the Kivu privinces after 2002: the Rwandan Army, by far the most powerful group, evacuated. The third result explains why the rubber boom in late 19th lead to a highly coercive regime in the Congo Free State, but less so in Amazonia. The Congo Free State had a monopoly, but conflict between Spanish and Portuguese colonies escalated during the boom, reducing their coercive power. It further explains why, during the protracted Civil War in Sierra Leone, coercion was common in the rice plantations, but not the diamond mines. The number of battles were higher in the diamond-rich areas, but level of civilian victimisation less. With land the valueable factor of productions, violence was allocated to conflict, not coercion.
    Keywords: conflict, coercion, slavery, natural resources, Sierra Leone civil war, eastern DRC
    JEL: D21 D3 D24 D41 D74 N37 N47 N57 Q34
    Date: 2013
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:113&r=afr
  18. By: Kamel Louhichi (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Sergio Gomez y Paloma (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Hatem Belhouchette (Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Montpellier, France); Thomas Allen (Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Montpellier & University of Perpignan Via Domitia, France); Jacques Fabre (Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Montpellier & DIATAE, Ingénierie des territoires agricoles, France); María Blanco Fonseca (Technical University of Madrid, Spain); Roza Chenoune (Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Montpellier, France); Szvetlana Acs (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Guillermo Flichman (Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Montpellier, France)
    Abstract: This report describes the generic template of a farm-household model for use in the context of developing countries in order to gain knowledge on food security and rural poverty alleviation under different economic conditions and agri-food policy options. This model, called FSSIM-Dev (Farming System Simulator for Developing Countries), is an extension of the FSSIM model developed within the SEAMLESS project. Contrary to most well-known household models which are econometric based, FSSIM-Dev is a non-linear optimization model which relies on both the general household's utility framework and the farm's production technical constraints, in a non-separable regime. It is referred to as a static Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) which optimise at farm household level, with the opportunities to simulate the exchange of production factors among farm-households. FSSIM-Dev is designed to capture five key features of developing countries or/and rural areas: (i) non-separability of production and consumption decisions due to market imperfection; (ii) interaction among farm-households for market factors; (iii) heterogeneity of farm households with respect to their both consumption baskets (demand side) and resource endowments (supply side); (iv) inter-linkage between transaction costs and market participation decisions; and (v) the seasonality of farming activities and resource use. Model use is illustrated in this report with an analysis of the combined effects of rice support policy, namely fertiliser subsidy policy, and improved rice cropping managements (practices) on the livelihood of representative farm households in Sierra Leone. Results show that, first, the improvement of rice cropping managements is a key factor to boost significantly farm household income in the studied region. Second, the amount of N fertilizer required for, mainly, upland rice appears too high and costly and could not be applied by farm households without policy support (i.e. subsidies). Third, both the simulated rice policy and the improved crop managements would increase farm productivity and boost household income but they are not sufficient to fight poverty since most of the farm household types would continue to live below the extreme poverty line of 1 USD-equivalent per day.
    Keywords: Food Security, Poverty, Impact assessment, Seed Policy, Farm household model, Sierra Leone
    Date: 2013–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc80707&r=afr
  19. By: Kerstin Nolte (GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies)
    Abstract: This paper reveals how the outcomes of large-scale land acquisitions made by foreign investors in Zambia are determined by the characteristics of the country’s land governance system. Proposing a conceptual framework adapted from Williamson (1998), and using evidence constituted by expert interviews and focus group discussions, we scrutinize the nature and evolution of the Zambian land governance system, the steps that an investor has to go through in order to attain land and the actors shaping the acquisition process. Shedding light on the acquisition process for land, we find that enforcement of formal rules is currently weak. Depending on how the actors “play the game,” land acquisitions can feature aspects of both “land grabs” and of “development opportunities.” If customary land is targeted, consultation, displacements and compensations become especially problematic issues. Moreover, we find that the power balance between actors has been altered by the presence of these investors. In particular, local authorities have gained greater power and influence.
    Keywords: Large-scale land acquisitions, Zambia, land governance, institutions, land grab
    Date: 2013–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gig:wpaper:221&r=afr
  20. By: Fukunishi, Takahiro
    Abstract: The export-oriented garment industry in Madagascar has displayed robust growth, thus both contributing to the economy and creating formal employment opportunities. However, it experienced a critical situation after the political turmoil that occurred in 2009. Our investigation using original firm data and published trade data demonstrates that the political turmoil itself did not affect garment exports, though suspension of duty-free access to the US market (AGOA) resulting from the turmoil had a huge impact on exports and factory closures. Estimates indicate that AGOA suspension caused export values to fall by 70%–75%, increasing the probability of a factory’s closure by 57.8%. Its impact on employment emerged through factory closures, which accounted for 27.8% of job losses in low-skilled positions, or 6405 jobs. We did not find evidence that the AGOA suspension affected low-skilled and female workers more intensively, though this distinction requires further investigation. Regardless of whether this suspension is anti-poor, however, it is clear that the AGOA suspension hurt poor workers rather than those who caused the turmoil.
    Keywords: Madagascar, Apparel industry, Exports, Politics, Employment, Manufacturing Exports, Garment Industry, Political Crisis, Duty-free Access
    JEL: D21 F14 F16 J63 L67 O55
    Date: 2013–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper422&r=afr

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