|
on Africa |
By: | Ada Jansen (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Elizabeth Stoltz (Department of Economics, University of the Western Cape); Derek Yu (Department of Economics, University of Western Cape) |
Abstract: | VAT without any exemptions or zero-rating is regressive. Since the inception of VAT in South Africa, there has been an ongoing debate around the issue of zero-rating to alleviate the burden on poor households. This paper uses vegetables as an example and conducts tax incidence analyses to compare the relative burden of VAT on vegetables for various income groups. It finds that differential treatment of the zero-rating of VAT on various categories of vegetables could be beneficial in terms of relative equity gains. It is suggested frozen vegetables remains zero-rated, whereas canned vegetables and some fresh vegetables items be zero-rated. |
Keywords: | Value added tax, expenditure patterns, regressivity, zero-rating, equity gain, optimal targeting, basic foodstuffs, sub-categories of vegetables, South Africa |
JEL: | H2 H24 |
Date: | 2012 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers159&r=afr |
By: | Nandini Srivastava; Wendell Daal; Luiz E Oliveira; Paulo Drummond |
Abstract: | Mobilizing more revenue is a priority for sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Countries have to finance their development agendas, and weak revenue mobilization is the root cause of fiscal imbalances in several countries. This paper reviews the experience of low-income SSA countries in mobilizing revenue in recent decades, with two broad aims: identify empirical norms of how much and how fast countries have been able to mobilize more revenue and empirical determinants (panel estimates) of revenue mobilization. The paper finds that (i) the frequency distribution of changes in revenue ratios for SSA low-income countries (LICs) peaks at a pace of about ½-2 percentage points of GDP in the short-to-medium term and at a pace of about 2-3½ percentage points of GDP over the longer term, and that (ii) almost all SSA-LICs managed to increase revenue ratios by more than 2 percentage points of GDP in the short-to-medium term, at least once in the last two decades. The sustainability of large increases in revenue ratios can be an issue, in particular for fragile countries. The panel estimates suggest that structural factors, such as per capita GDP, share of agriculture in GDP, inflation, degree of openness, and rents received from natural resources, are important determinants of tax revenue. |
Keywords: | Cross country analysis , Low-income developing countries , Revenue mobilization , Sub-Saharan Africa , |
Date: | 2012–05–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:12/108&r=afr |
By: | Demombynes, Gabriel; Trommlerova, Sofia Karina |
Abstract: | Substantial declines in infant and under-5 mortality have taken place in recent years in many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Kenya's infant mortality rate has fallen by 7.6 percent per year, the fastest rate of decline among the 20 countries in the region for which recent Demographic and Health Survey data is available. Kenya's rate of postneonatal deaths per 1,000 live births fell by more than half over a five-year period, dropping from 47 to 22, as measured using data from the 2003 and 2008-09 Demographic and Health Surveys. Among the possible causes of the decline are various targeted new public health initiatives and improved access to water and sanitation. A Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition using Demographic and Health Survey data shows that the increased ownership of insecticide-treated bednets in endemic malaria zones explains 39 percent of the decline in postneonatal mortality and 58 percent of the decline in infant mortality. Changes in other observable candidate factors do not explain substantial portions of the decline. The portion of the decline not explained may be associated with generalized trends such as the overall improvement in living standards that has taken place with economic growth. The widespread ownership of insecticide-treated bednets in areas of Kenya where malaria is rare suggests that better targeting of insecticide-treated bednet provision programs could improve the cost-effectiveness of such programs. |
Keywords: | Population Policies,Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Early Child and Children's Health,Adolescent Health,Disease Control&Prevention |
Date: | 2012–05–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6057&r=afr |
By: | Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Bent E. Sorensen |
Abstract: | We study capital misallocation within and across 10 African countries using the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. First, we compare the extent of misallocation among firms within countries. We document high variation in firms' marginal product of capital (MPK), implying that countries could produce significantly more with the same aggregate capital stock if capital were allocated optimally. Such variation differs from country to country with some African countries (success stories) closer to developed country benchmarks. Small firms and non-exporters have less access to finance and have higher returns to capital in general. Self reported measures of obstacles to firms' operations suggest access to finance is the most important obstacle: A firm with the worst access to finance has MPK 45 percent higher than a firm with the worst access to finance as a result of low capital per worker. We compare average levels of the MPK across countries, finding evidence that the strength of property rights and the quality of the legal system help explain country-level differences in capital misallocation. |
JEL: | F40 O10 |
Date: | 2012–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18030&r=afr |
By: | Monique Reid (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch) |
Abstract: | The majority of academic research on central bank communication has analysed a central bank’s audience as a single group. Analyses, especially empirical research, have focused almost exclusively on a central bank’s interaction with the financial markets, facilitated by the availability of high-quality, high-frequency asset price data. In practice, a central bank’s audience is heterogeneous, and recognising this is advantageous for both modelling purposes and effective central bank communication. Many central banks use a range of communication tools to reach their various audiences, but little formal analysis has been conducted to guide policy design and communication strategies. Gathering and processing information are costly for the general public, so they make rational decisions that limit the time and resources they allocate to these tasks. As a result, aggregate inflation expectations of the public as a whole can be described as ‘sticky’ in that the spread of information about inflation expectations through the economy is not instantaneous. A body of literature has emerged over the past decade, led by Mankiw and Reis (2001), who developed the Sticky Information Phillips Curve (SIPC), and Carroll (2002, 2003), who proposed microfoundations for the SIPC. This paper follows Carroll (2002, 2003) in adopting epidemiological models to provide insight into how the general public in South Africa forms its inflation expectations. This enables an estimation of the speed at which the South African general public updates its inflation expectations (information stickiness). Agent-based models, which explain the complex aggregate inflation expectations of the general public from the agent level upwards, are then used to verify these estimates of information stickiness and explore the microfoundations of aggregate inflation expectations. |
Keywords: | South Africa, sticky information, inflation expectations, inattentive general public |
JEL: | D82 D83 E31 E52 E58 |
Date: | 2012 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers160&r=afr |
By: | Simplice A , Asongu |
Abstract: | In the first empirical assessment of the incidence of mobile banking on financial intermediary development in Africa, we use two definitions of the financial system: the traditional IFS (2008) and Asongu (2011) measures of financial sector importance. When the conception of a financial system is based only on banks and other financial institution (IFS, 2008), mobile banking has a negative incidence on traditional financial intermediary dynamics of depth, activity and size. However, when a previously missing informal-financial sector component is integrated into the definition (Asongu, 2011), mobile-banking has a positive incidence on informal financial intermediary development. Three major implications result from the findings. (1) There is a growing role of informal finance in developing countries. (2) The incidence of the burgeoning phenomenon of mobile-banking cannot be effectively assessed at a macroeconomic level by traditional financial development indicators. (3) It is a wake-up call for scholarly research on informal financial intermediary development indicators which will oriented monetary policy; since a great chunk of the monetary base(M0) in less developed countries is now captured by mobile-banking. |
Keywords: | Banking; Mobile Phones; Shadow Economy; Financial Development; Africa |
JEL: | O17 E00 O33 D60 G20 |
Date: | 2012–05–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38576&r=afr |
By: | Mvogo, Jean-Paul |
Abstract: | En 50 ans, l’Afrique a enregistré peu de progrès en matière de développement. Ce travail analyse un facteur à même d’expliquer cette trajectoire singulière: la structuration des systèmes financiers. L’approfondissement du concept de développement financier ainsi qu’une meilleure intelligence du lien entre sphères réelle et financière ont permis de dériver un indicateur de développement financier qui souligne la faible structuration des systèmes financiers africains et leur apport limité au développement. Ce travail souligne aussi l’existence d’équilibres durables de sous-développement liés au facteur financier. Face à la force des facteurs expliquant ces sous équilibres, la mise en œuvre de politiques publiques, les politiques de développement financier, doit être au cœur des stratégies de développement à venir. Leur implémentation en Afrique est d’autant plus légitime qu’elles ont prouvé leur efficacité sous d’autres cieux. Cette thèse définit ces politiques et leur gouvernance. |
Abstract: | In 50 years, Africa has seen little progress in development. Our work analyzes a factor able to explain this singular path: the structure of financial systems. After deepening the concept of financial development and providing a better understanding of the relationship between the real and financial spheres, it proposes an indicator of financial development which emphasizes the weak structure of African financial systems and their limited contribution to development. This work also highlights the existence of equilibriums of underdevelopment related to the financial factor over the long run. Given the strength of the factors explaining these equilibriums, the implementation of public policies, financial development policies, must be at the heart of development strategies to come. Their implementation in Africa is all the more legitimate that they have proven their effectiveness in other areas. This thesis defines these policies and their governance. |
Keywords: | Financial institutions; Banks and banking; Economic policy; Economic development; Afrique; Banques; Développement économique; Politique économique; Institutions financières; |
JEL: | O29 O55 O16 G21 |
Date: | 2012 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/9120&r=afr |
By: | Kenneth, Akankwasa; Gerald, Ortmann; Edilegnaw, Wale; Wilberforce, Tushemereirwe |
Abstract: | ABSTRACT Despite the research efforts to introduce the newly developed, improved banana ’Matooke’ hybrids to the farming communities in Uganda, to date no attempt has been made to document the likelihood of farmer adoption of these hybrid bananas in Uganda. The paper has analyzed farmers’ perceptions regarding the newly developed improved Matooke hybrid banana attributes in Uganda to ex ante understand farmers’ likelihood of adoption of these varieties. Descriptive statistics and data reduction techniques (like factor analysis) were used to define the potential explanatory variables affecting adoption. Following this, a Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression model was applied to estimate the effect of farmers’ perceptions about the hybrid banana attributes and other factors on the likelihood of adoption of the Matooke hybrid banana variety. The results show that, compared to Mbwazirume – a local variety used as a reference, four of the hybrid banana varieties considered are perceived to be better in terms of production characteristics (resistance to sigatoka, weevils, nematodes, tolerance to poor soils, good bunch size, sucker production) but are regarded as inferior in terms of consumption characteristics (taste, colour when cooked, flavour). The hybrid M9 is regarded as having a relatively good performance with respect to most of the production and consumption characteristics. The results of the ZIP regression analysis, including farmer characteristics like gender, family size, age and farmer perceptions of varietal attributes, disease and pests, yield and agronomic attributes, were positively associated with the likely adoption of most of the hybrid bananas. In collaboration with extension agents, variety M9 could be disseminated to a wider farming community targeting, larger households, younger farmers and relatively farmers with large size of land. |
Keywords: | Keywords: Banana (Matooke) hybrids, Ex-ante, Farmers’ Perceptions, ZIP Models, Uganda, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, |
Date: | 2012–08–18 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:123302&r=afr |
By: | Quattri, Maria A. |
Abstract: | The availability of enabling institutions, information systems and infrastructure is a precondition to enhance agricultural markets’ efficiency, and make market actors less vulnerable to price instability. This paper investigates whether the focus on institutional and technological upgrading is enough to make Ethiopian agricultural markets more efficient. In particular, given that a requirement for exchange efficiency is the lack of unexploited mutually beneficial spatial arbitrage opportunities, we look for evidence of increasing returns to transaction size and returns to scale in transport using detailed trader surveys collected in 2001 and 2007. Whilst transport costs could be reduced by assembling loads and avoiding trans-shipments for the transporters, we find no evidence that transport and handling costs are a source of increasing returns to transaction size. Hence, the presence of many small market intermediaries is not a source of inefficiency in Ethiopia, and concentration in market intermediation is not necessary for social efficiency. |
Keywords: | Ethiopia, market efficiency, International Development, Risk and Uncertainty, O13, Q13, |
Date: | 2012–02–23 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa123:122512&r=afr |
By: | Timu, Anne G.; Mulwa, Richard M.; Okello, Julius; Kamau, Mercy |
Abstract: | This paper examines the effect of variety attributes on adoption of improved sorghum varieties in Kenya. Using data from 140 farmers, the paper uses a multivariate probit to identify variety-specific drivers of adoption. The results on the perception of farmers variety attributes show that improved varieties had desirable production and marketing attributes while the local varieties were perceived to have the best consumption attributes. Evidence further indicates that the major sorghum variety attributes driving rapid adoption are taste, drought tolerance, yield, ease of cooking and the variety’s ability to fetch a price premium. Early maturity, a major focus of research has no effect on adoption. The findings of the study imply that, while developing improved seed varieties, breeders should also focus on non yield attributes like taste and ease of cooking. Secondly, it is important that both producers and consumers of sorghum be involved in the seed evaluation process. |
Keywords: | Sorghum, Variety Attributes, Multi Variate Probit Model, Adoption., Agricultural and Food Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, |
Date: | 2012 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea12:123301&r=afr |
By: | Maitre d'Hotel, Elodie; le Cotty, Tristan; Jayne, Thomas S. |
Abstract: | The 2007-2008 food crisis and current food price swings led economists to re-evaluate the potential for policy instruments to manage food price volatility. Many developing countries recently pursued price regulation policies, but the difficulties of these policies in promoting price stability is not fully understood. In particular, the ability of a stabilization policy to lower food price volatility does not depend on the nature of the policy instrument only, but also on the institutional conditions of its implementation. Kenya is a particularly interesting case as it is characterized by a rather long tradition of public intervention, and by the persistence of highly volatile prices. The consistency of the policy use appears to be key factor influencing the degree of price volatility. Applied to trade policies, this consistency is defined by the temporal relationship between the tariff level and the international price changes. To test the influence of policy consistency on price volatility, we develop an autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model of price determination in which prices and prices volatility are jointly estimated, using monthly data over the 1994-2009 period in Kenya. |
Keywords: | volatility, predictability, consistency, food, policy, Kenya, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Risk and Uncertainty, D84, Q13, Q18, |
Date: | 2012–02–23 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa123:122551&r=afr |
By: | Roberto Burguet; Marcelo Soto |
Abstract: | The Millennium Declaration (2000) set as one of its targets a substantial reduction in child mortality. This paper studies whether the massive increase in development aid can account for part of the reduction in child mortality observed in developing countries since the year 2000. To do so, we analyze a panel of more than 130 developing countries over the 2000-2008 period. We use the time trend evolution of aid to identify an exogenous source of variation. Total aid has had no statistically significant effect on child mortality. However, a disaggregate analysis identifies certain sectors of aid that have had a significant impact. The effects have been larger in high mortality countries, including Sub-Saharan Africa. Projections based on our estimates strongly support the concern that most countries in that region will miss the Millennium Goals target on child mortality. |
Keywords: | ODA, child mortality, aid effectiveness |
JEL: | O11 O15 I15 |
Date: | 2011–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bge:wpaper:591&r=afr |
By: | Kodama, Yuka |
Abstract: | In rural Ethiopia, livelihood diversification is essential for households to be able to sustain themselves. Declining agricultural profits and a land shortage have accelerated this diversification. While the past literature has ignored young women's economic contributions in its discussions about livelihood diversification, this research indicates that the current rapid educational expansion for girls has changed their economic role in their households. This has resulted in changes in the conventional life courses of women in rural Ethiopia as they have more choices in terms of education, marriage, and the types and location of their economic activities, due to the increasing importance of young women's economic contributions to their households and their improved educational opportunities. The aim of this paper is to elucidate how the economic environment and government educational policy have affected young women's lives in terms of education, marriage, economic activities, and intra-household power relationships, especially with their parents. |
Keywords: | Ethiopia, Female labor, Women, Rural societies, Household |
JEL: | J16 J21 |
Date: | 2012–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper344&r=afr |
By: | Pan, Lei; Christiaensen, Luc J.M. |
Abstract: | Through decentralized targeting of input vouchers new agricultural input subsidy programs aim to more effectively reach their objectives and target population. But, lingering fears of elite capture remain. These are borne out in the 2009 input voucher program in Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. Sixty percent of the voucher beneficiaries were households with village officials. This significantly reduced the targeting performance of the program, especially in unequal and remote communities. When targeting the poor, greater coverage and concentration in higher trust settings mitigated these concerns. Scrutiny remains important when relying on decentralized targeting, as is a clearer sense of purpose of input vouchers. |
Keywords: | local elite, decentralization, targeting, fertilizer, voucher program, Tanzania, International Development, Public Economics, H11, H42, O22, |
Date: | 2012 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae12:122905&r=afr |
By: | Boysen, Ole; Matthews, Alan |
Abstract: | This paper applies an integrated CGE-microsimulation model to analyse the impact of the 2006-08 increase in commodity prices on Uganda. Previous impact analysis studies suggested that the food price shock increased poverty in Uganda as there are more net food buyer than net food seller households. We show that the agriculture commodity price shocks were poverty-reducing, but the simultaneous increases in energy and fertiliser prices were poverty-increasing. Overall, poverty decreased in Uganda as a result of external price shocks in the 2006-08 period. |
Keywords: | Food price shock, Uganda, microsimulation, poverty, International Development, Risk and Uncertainty, O55, Q18., |
Date: | 2012–02–23 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa123:122445&r=afr |
By: | Sayantan Ghosh; Uwe Jaekel; Francesco Petruccione |
Abstract: | Financial markets are well known examples of multi-fractal complex systems that have garnered much interest in their characterization through complex network theory. The recent studies have used correlation based distance metrics for defining and analyzing financial networks. In this work the singularity strength is employed to define a distance metric and the existence of hierarchical structure in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is investigated. The multi-fractal nature of the financial market, which is otherwise hidden in the correlation coefficient based prescriptions, is analyzed through the use of the singularity strength based method. The presence of a super cluster is exhibited in the network which accounts for half of the network size and is homogeneous in the sectoral composition of the South African market. |
Date: | 2012–05 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1205.1710&r=afr |
By: | Banik, Nilanjan; Yoonus, C.A. |
Abstract: | This paper investigates empirically the possibility of forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA) among member countries of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) region. Under OCA, member countries share a common currency (like, the Euro), while foregoing their autonomy with respect to their use of monetary policy instruments. We say that the countries are good candidates for forming an OCA if there is a long run relationship in the trend (permanent) component of output. Our results indicate existence of long run relationship in the trend component of GDP among the member countries in the ECOWAS region. Hence is the plausibility for forming an OCA. |
Keywords: | Monetary Union; ECOWAS; Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition |
JEL: | F15 |
Date: | 2011–06–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:38664&r=afr |
By: | Rijkers, Bob; Costa, Rita |
Abstract: | Despite their increasing prominence in policy debates, little is known about gender inequities in non-agricultural labor market outcomes in rural areas. Using matched household-enterprise-community data sets from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Indonesia and Sri Lanka, this paper documents and analyzes gender differences in the individual portfolio choice and productivity of non-farm entrepreneurship. Except for Ethiopia, women are less likely than men to become nonfarm entrepreneurs. Women's nonfarm entrepreneurship isn't strongly correlated with household composition or educational attainment, but is especially prevalent amongst women who are the head of their household. Female-led firms are much smaller and less productive on average, though gender differences in productivity vary dramatically across countries. Mean differences in log output per worker suggest that male firms are roughly 10 times as productive as female firms in Bangladesh, three times as those in Ethiopia and twice as those in Sri Lanka. By contrast, no significant differences in labor productivity were detected in Indonesia. Differences in output per worker are overwhelmingly accounted for by sorting by sector and size. They can't be explained by differences in capital intensity, human capital or the local investment climate, nor by increasing returns to scale. |
Keywords: | Access to Finance,Gender and Development,Housing&Human Habitats,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies |
Date: | 2012–05–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6066&r=afr |
By: | Schüring, Esther (UNU-MERIT / MGSOG, Maastricht University); Gassmann, Franziska (UNU-MERIT / MGSOG Maastricht University) |
Abstract: | There has been an ongoing debate among researchers, policy-makers and development partners in low-income countries on whether and to what degree non-contributory social transfers should be targeted to the poor or paid out universally to every citizen or to all citizens in a particular category. This paper critically discusses the assumptions behind the political economy arguments of targeting and tests whether a universal mechanism is bound to politically excel in a lowincome country context. A number of authors have argued that going universal is a win-win situation, both for the poor, the middle class as well as those who are in power. We would therefore expect broad-based support behind a universal scheme, in particular in countries where poverty is widespread and targeting also proves administratively challenging. On the basis of attitudinal surveys with the urban, rural and student population in Zambia, we actually detect more support for targeting the poor than the political economy models would predict. These findings are corroborated by experimental evidence from rural Zambia. We discuss the assumptions of the political economy models in the light of these findings and contemplate on potentially decisive parameters that the models currently do not incorporate. |
Keywords: | political economy, targeting, universalism |
JEL: | H53 I38 O15 |
Date: | 2012 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2012028&r=afr |
By: | Ole Boysen (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin) |
Abstract: | This article estimates a household demand system for Uganda from cross-sectional household survey data. More specifically, a 13 item two-stage demand system model is estimated for rural and urban households separately where the main second-stage is represented by a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System which accounts for socio-demographic household characteristics and censoring and focuses on food items. Elasticities are calculated for three household expenditure groups as well as for the aggregate. We find that food expenditures tend to be more elastic for poorer households than for richer ones. All foods are generally price inelastic and price elasticities tend to decrease with rising expenditure level. A number of substitutional and complementary relationships between food items are identified. |
Keywords: | Uganda, quadratic almost ideal demand system, elasticities |
JEL: | O55 C31 C34 |
Date: | 2012–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp396&r=afr |
By: | Weber, Ron; Musshoff, Oliver |
Abstract: | On the example of a commercial microfinance institution (MFI) in Tanzania this paper investigates first whether agricultural firms have a different probability to get a loan and whether their loans are differently volume rationed than loans to non-agricultural firms. Second, we analyze whether agricultural firms repay their loans with different delinquencies than non-agricultural firms. Our results reveal that agricultural firms face higher obstacles to get credit but as soon as they have access to credit, their loans are not differently volume rationed than those of non-agricultural firms. Furthermore, agricultural firms are less often delinquent when paying back their loans than non-agricultural firms. Our findings suggest that a higher risk exposition of agricultural firms does not necessarily lead to higher credit risk. They also show that the investigated MFI overestimates the credit risk of agricultural clients and, hence, should reconsider its risk assessment practice to be able to increase lending to the agricultural sector. In addition, our results might indicate that farmers qualify less often for a loan as they do not fit into the standard micro credit product. |
Keywords: | Agricultural Finance, Access to Credit, Loan Repayment, Microfinance Institutions, Financial Economics, International Development, Risk and Uncertainty, G21, G32, Q14, |
Date: | 2012–02–23 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa123:122552&r=afr |