|
on Africa |
| By: | Corno, Lucia; de Walque, Damien |
| Abstract: | Swaziland and Lesotho have the highest HIV prevalence in the world. They also share another distinct feature: during the last century, they sent a large numbers of migrant workers to South African mines. This paper examines whether participation in mining in a bordering country affects HIV infection rate. A job in the mines means leaving for long periods away from their families and living in an area with an active sex industry. This creates potential incentives for multiple, concurrent partnerships. Using Demographic and Health Surveys, the analysis shows that migrant miners ages 30-44 are 15 percentage points more likely to be HIV positive, and women whose partner is a migrant miner are 8 percentage points more likely to become infected. The study also shows that miners are less likely to abstain or use condoms, and female partners of miners are more likely to engage in extramarital sex. The authors interpret these results as suggesting that miners'migration into South Africa has increased the spread of HIV/AIDS in their countries of origin. Consistent with this interpretation, the association between HIV infection and being a miner or a miner's wife are not statistically significant in Zimbabwe, a country where the mining industry is local and does not involve migrating to South Africa. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,HIV AIDS,Disease Control&Prevention,Gender and Health,Gender and Law |
| Date: | 2012–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5966&r=afr |
| By: | Pugatch, Todd (Oregon State University) |
| Abstract: | Re-enrollment in school following a period of dropout is a common feature of the South African school to work transition that has been largely ignored in both the literature on South Africa and the wider literature on sequential schooling choice. In this paper, I quantify the importance of the option to re-enroll in the school to work transition of South African youth. I estimate a structural model of schooling choice in South Africa using a panel dataset that contains the entire schooling and labor market histories of sampled youth. Estimates of the model's structural parameters confirm the hypothesis that enrollment choices reflect dynamic updating of the relative returns to schooling versus labor market participation. In a policy simulation under which re-enrollment prior to high school completion is completely restricted, the proportion completing at least 12 years of schooling rises 6 percentage points, as youth who would have dropped out under unrestricted re-enrollment reconsider the long-term consequences of doing so. The results suggest that the option to re-enroll is an important component of the incentives South African youth face when making schooling decisions. |
| Keywords: | human capital investment, labor supply, youth unemployment, dynamic discrete choice, South Africa |
| JEL: | I21 J24 O12 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6305&r=afr |
| By: | Simplice A, Asongu |
| Abstract: | The Okada & Samreth(2012, EL) finding that aid deters corruption could have an important influence on policy and academic debates. This paper partially negates their criticism of the mainstream approach to the aid-development nexus. Using updated data(1996-2010) from 52 African countries we provide robust evidence of a positive aid-corruption nexus. Development assistance fuels(mitigates) corruption(the control of corruption) in the African continent. As a policy implication, the Okada & Samreth(2012, EL) finding for developing countries may not be relevant for Africa. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa |
| JEL: | F35 F50 O55 O10 B20 |
| Date: | 2012–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36545&r=afr |
| By: | Simplice A, Asongu |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effectiveness of foreign aid in improving government institutions in 52 African countries using updated data(1996-2010). Findings suggest development assistance deteriorates government quality dynamics of corruption-control, political-stability, rule of law, regulation quality, voice and accountability and government effectiveness. It is therefore a momentous epoque to solve the second tragedy of foreign aid; high time economists and policy makers start rethinking the models and theories on which foreign aid is based. In the meantime, it is up to people who really care about the poor to hold aid agencies accountable for results. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa |
| JEL: | F35 F50 O55 O10 B20 |
| Date: | 2012–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36543&r=afr |
| By: | Simplice A, Asongu |
| Abstract: | The motivations of the Arab Spring that have marked the history of humanity over the last few months have left political economists, researchers, governments and international policymakers pondering over how the quality of political institutions affect consumer welfare in terms of commodity prices. This paper investigates the effect of political establishments on consumer prices in the African continent. Findings suggest that in comparison with authoritarian regimes, democracies better provide for institutions that keep inflationary pressures on commodity prices in check. As a policy implication, improving the quality of democratic institutions will ameliorate consumer welfare through lower inflation rates. Such government quality institutional determinants include, among others: voice and accountability, rule of law, regulation quality, control of corruption and press freedom. |
| Keywords: | Consumer prices; Political institutions; Welfare; Africa |
| JEL: | O1 I30 Q00 P00 P50 |
| Date: | 2012–01–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36174&r=afr |
| By: | Simplice A, Asongu |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the aid-development nexus in 52 African countries using updated data(1996-2010) and a new indicator of human development(adjusted for inequality). Design/methodology/approach – The estimation technique used is a Two-Stage-Least Squares Instrumental Variable approach. Instruments include: income-levels, legal-origins and religious-dominations. The first-step consists of justifying the choice of the estimation technique with a Hausman-test for endogeneity. In the second-step, we verify that the instrumental variables are exogenous to the endogenous components of explaining variables(aid dynamic channels) conditional on other covariates(control variables). In the third-step, the strength and validity of the instruments are examined with the Cragg-Donald and Sargan overidentifying restrictions tests respectively. Robustness checks are ensured by: (1) the use of alternative aid indicators; (2) estimation under restricted and unrestricted hypotheses ; and (3) adoption of two interchangeable sets of instruments. Findings – The findings broadly indicate that development assistance is detrimental to GDP growth, GDP per capita growth and inequality adjusted human development. Given concerns on the achievement of the MDGs, the relevance of these results point to the deficiency of foreign aid as a sustainable cure to poverty in Africa. Social implications – It is a momentous epoque to solve the second tragedy of foreign aid; it is high time economists and policy makers start rethinking the models and theories on which foreign aid is based. In the meantime, it is up to people who care about the poor to hold aid agencies accountable for piecemeal results. Originality/value – These findings are based on data collected after pioneering works on the aid-development nexus. Usage of the inequality adjusted human development index first published in 2010, corrects past works of the bunch of criticisms inherent in the first index. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid; Political Economy; Development; Africa |
| JEL: | F35 F50 O55 O10 B20 |
| Date: | 2012–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36542&r=afr |
| By: | Martine Mariotti |
| Abstract: | I exploit the sudden increase in employment in 1975, 1976 and 1977 in some former homelands by comparing the long term adult physical outcomes of children benefitting from the employment increase to those not subject to it. Using a standard difference in difference approach I find that there was some malnutrition in the homelands resulting in stunting in African men born during the shock providing support to the foetal origins hypothesis. The employment shock did not affect other long term outcomes such as education and general health, although there is some evidence of an improvement in long term health. This study provides previously unmeasured individual level information on the quality of life in the homelands during apartheid, an era when African living standards were neglected but unmeasured because of a lack of data collection. |
| JEL: | I31 N37 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2012-570&r=afr |
| By: | Ashraf, Quamrul (Williams College); Galor, Oded (Brown University) |
| Abstract: | This research argues that deep-rooted factors, determined tens of thousands of years ago, had a significant effect on the course of economic development from the dawn of human civilization to the contemporary era. It advances and empirically establishes the hypothesis that in the course of the exodus of Homo sapiens out of Africa, variation in migratory distance from the cradle of humankind to various settlements across the globe affected genetic diversity and has had a direct long-lasting effect on the pattern of comparative economic development that could not be captured by contemporary geographical, institutional, and cultural factors. In particular, the level of genetic diversity within a society is found to have a hump-shaped effect on development outcomes in the pre-colonial era, reflecting the trade-off between the beneficial and the detrimental effects of diversity on productivity. Moreover, the level of genetic diversity in each country today (i.e., genetic diversity and genetic distance among and between its ancestral populations) has a similar non-monotonic effect on the contemporary levels of income per capita. While the intermediate level of genetic diversity prevalent among the Asian and European populations has been conducive for development, the high degree of diversity among African populations and the low degree of diversity among Native American populations have been a detrimental force in the development of these regions. Further, the optimal level of diversity has increased in the process of industrialization, as the beneficial forces associated with greater diversity have intensified in an environment characterized by more rapid technological progress. |
| Keywords: | Out of Africa hypothesis, human genetic diversity, comparative development, population density, Neolithic Revolution, land productivity, Malthusian stagnation |
| JEL: | N10 N30 N50 O10 O50 Z10 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6330&r=afr |
| By: | Frédéric DOCQUIER (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) and FNRS); Chrysovalantis VASILAKIS (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)); D. TAMFUTU MUNSI (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we identify and quantify the role of international migration in the propagation of HIV across sub-Saharan African countries. We use a panel database on bilateral migration flows and HIV prevalence rates covering 44 countries over the nineties. Controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, spatial autocorrelation, reverse causality and reflection issues, and incorrect treatment of country fixed effects, we regress the log-change of HIV prevalence rates on the average levels of prevalence at destination and origin of migrants. We find evidence of a very robust emigration-induced propagation mechanism. On the contrary, immigration has no significant effect. Numerical experiments reveal that the long-run effect of emigration accounts for more than 5 percent of HIV prevalence rates in 18 countries (resp. 20 percent in 9 countries). |
| Keywords: | international migration, labor mobility, HIV/AIDS, pandemics, propagation of diseases |
| JEL: | F22 I12 J61 |
| Date: | 2011–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvir:2011038&r=afr |
| By: | Carlos Vieira (CEFAGE-UÉ, Universidade de Évora, Portugal); Isabel Vieira (CEFAGE-UÉ, Universidade de Évora, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | African countries involved in monetary integration projects have been advised to peg their currencies against an external anchor before the definite fixing of exchange rates. In this study we estimate optimum currency area indices to determine, between four alternatives, which international currency would be the most suitable anchor for COMESA members and for a set of other selected African economies. We conclude that the euro and the British pound prevail over the US dollar or the yen; that the euro would be the best pegging for most, but not all, COMESA members; and that some of these economies display evidence of more intense integration with third countries, with which they share membership in other (overlapping) regional economic communities, than within COMESA. |
| Keywords: | Optimum currency areas; Monetarry anchor; Currency pegs; African regional economic communities; African monetary integration. |
| JEL: | F15 F13 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2012_03&r=afr |
| By: | Blattman, Christopher; Fiala, Nathan; Martinez, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | Can cash transfers promote employment and reduce poverty in rural Africa? Will lower youth unemployment and poverty reduce the risk of social instability? The authors experimentally evaluate one of Uganda's largest development programs, which provided thousands of young people nearly unconditional, unsupervised cash transfers to pay for vocational training, tools, and business start-up costs. Mid-term results after two years suggest four main findings. First, despite a lack of central monitoring and accountability, most youth invest the transfer in vocational skills and tools. Second, the economic impacts of the transfer are large: hours of non-household employment double and cash earnings increase by nearly 50 percent relative to the control group. The authors estimate the transfer yields a real annual return on capital of 35 percent on average. Third, the evidence suggests that poor access to credit is a major reason youth cannot start these vocations in the absence of aid. Much of the heterogeneity in impacts is unexplained, however, and is unrelated to conventional economic measures of ability, suggesting we have much to learn about the determinants of entrepreneurship. Finally, these economic gains result in modest improvements in social stability. Measures of social cohesion and community support improve mildly, by roughly 5 to 10 percent, especially among males, most likely because the youth becomes a net giver rather than a net taker in his kin and community network. Most strikingly, we see a 50 percent fall in interpersonal aggression and disputes among males, but a 50 percent increase among females. Neither change seems related to economic performance nor does social cohesion a puzzle to be explored in the next phase of the study. These results suggest that increasing access to credit and capital could stimulate employment growth in rural Africa. In particular, unconditional and unsupervised cash transfers may be a more effective and cost-efficient forming of large-scale aid than commonly believed. A second stage of data collection in 2012 will collect longitudinal economic impacts, additional data on political violence and behavior, and explore alternative theoretical mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Labor Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Primary Education,Educational Sciences |
| Date: | 2011–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:66523&r=afr |
| By: | AfDB |
| Date: | 2012–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:375&r=afr |
| By: | Simplice A, Asongu |
| Abstract: | Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of trade and financial globalization on human development in 52 African countries using updated data(1996-2010) and a new indicator of human development(adjusted for inequality). Design/methodology/approach – The estimation technique used is a Two-Stage-Least Squares Instrumental Variable methodology. Instruments include: income-levels, legal-origins and religious-dominations. The first-step consists of justifying the choice of the estimation technique with a Hausman-test for endogeneity. In the second-step, we verify that the instrumental variables are exogenous to the endogenous components of explaining variables(globalization dynamic channels) conditional on other covariates(control variables). In the third-step, the strength and validity of the instruments are assessed with the Cragg-Donald and Sargan overidentifying restrictions tests respectively. Robustness checks are ensured by: (1) use of alternative globalization indicators; (2) endogeneity based estimation ; and (3) adoption of two interchangeable sets of instruments. Findings – Findings broadly indicate that while trade globalization improves human development(consistent with the neoliberal theory), financial globalization has the opposite effect(in line with the hegemony thesis). Social implications – Capital accounts should be opened in tandem with financial and institutional development. The investment atmosphere needs improvement to curtail capital flight(about 39%). Other policy implications include: adoption of openness options in a selective and gradual manner, development of some industrial backbone for an import-substitution or export-led industry, emphasis on regional trade and building capacity, development of the agricultural sector with continuous government assistance, building of rural infrastructure, increasing adult literacy rate and developing human resources, fighting corruption and mitigating wastages in government expenditure. Originality/value – These findings are based on very recent data. Usage of the inequality adjusted human development index first published in 2010, corrects past works of the bulk of criticisms inherent in the first index. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Human development; Africa |
| JEL: | I30 O55 F30 F10 I10 |
| Date: | 2012–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36541&r=afr |
| By: | BONAN Jacopo; DAGNELIE Olivier; LEMAY-BOUCHER Philippe; TENIKUE Michel |
| Abstract: | In Senegal mutual health organizations (MHOs) have been present in the greater region of Thiès for years. Despite their benefits, in some areas there remain low take-up rates. We offer an insurance literacy module, communicating the benefits from health microinsurance and the functioning of MHOs, to a randomly selected sample of households in the city of Thiès. The effects of this training, and three cross-cutting marketing treatments, are evaluated using a randomized control trial. We find that the insurance literacy module has no impact, but that our marketing treatment has a significant effect on the take up decisions of households. |
| Keywords: | community based health insurance scheme; Randomized control trials; Africa; Senegal |
| JEL: | C93 O17 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2012-03&r=afr |
| By: | OKPARA, GODWIN CHIGOZIE |
| Abstract: | This paper investigated the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on some selected macro-economic variables such as real GDP, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. Data for the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin. For the assessment of this impact, the author used co-integration and error correction model to arrive at a parsimonious result which revealed that foreign direct investment though impacts positively and significantly on the gross fixed capital formation and the real GDP, has not made any positive and significant impact on the reduction of unemployment in Nigeria. The researcher therefore calls for putting in order the Country’s social, political and economic environment for foreign investment to yield dividends that will be enormous enough as to significantly reduce unemployment and engender instant growth on real GDP. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment; economic growth; unemployment rate; co-integration; vector error correction model |
| JEL: | E22 C12 C87 B22 C32 C13 J21 F21 C22 C01 |
| Date: | 2012–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36319&r=afr |
| By: | Akresh, Richard (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); de Walque, Damien (World Bank); Kazianga, Harounan (Oklahoma State University) |
| Abstract: | We conducted a unique randomized experiment to estimate the impact of alternative cash transfer delivery mechanisms on household demand for routine preventative health services in rural Burkina Faso. The two-year pilot program randomly distributed cash transfers that were either conditional or unconditional and the money was given to either mothers or fathers. Families enrolled in the conditional cash transfer schemes were required to obtain quarterly child growth monitoring at local health clinics for all children under five years old. There was not such a requirement under the unconditional programs. Compared with control group households, conditional cash transfers significantly increase the number of preventative health care visits during the previous year, while unconditional cash transfers did not have such an impact. For the conditional cash transfers, money given to mothers or fathers showed beneficial impacts of similar magnitude in increasing routine visits. |
| Keywords: | cash transfers, conditionality, gender, child health, Africa |
| JEL: | I15 I38 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6321&r=afr |
| By: | Okpara, Godwin Chigozie |
| Abstract: | This study used Granger causality and then error correction model to investigate the determinants of foreign direct investment inflow to Nigeria during the period 1970 – 2009. The results show that causality runs from government policy, fiscal incentives, availability of natural resources and trade openness to FDI without reverse or feed back effect. The parsimonious result of the error correction model reveals that past foreign investment flows could significantly stimulate current investment inflows. Also, while inadequate natural resources reduce the inflow of FDI, fiscal incentives, favorable government policy, exchange rate and infrastructural development are found to be a positive and significant function of FDI in Nigeria. Market size (at lags 2 and 3) and trade openness are positively signed while political risk is negatively signed. These variables, however impact insignificantly on FDI. Thus, fiscal incentives, favorable government policy and infrastructural development are positive predictors of FDI inflows and should be used as policy instruments. In the light of these findings, recommendations such as government, improving on the country’s market size through its monetary and fiscal policy and revitalizing the agricultural sector for extraction of raw materials were made. |
| Keywords: | foreign direct investment; error correction model; determinants of FDI; natural resources; fiscal incentives; trade openness |
| JEL: | P33 C32 O19 C01 |
| Date: | 2012–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36676&r=afr |
| By: | Jeremy D. Foltz; Ursula T. Aldana; Paul Laris |
| Abstract: | Since independence a quiet revolution has taken place in maize production in the Sahel with Mali increasing production more than ten-fold and yields going up ~2% a year. This research work uses farm level panel data from southern Mali's maize growing regions to demonstrate this success in agricultural production and technological change. We analyze the determinants of production to unpack increases in input use from technological change. The estimations show that farmer adoption of increased fertilizer use has driven much of the productivity growth rather than the adoption of improvements in seeds and management. Additionally, we find strong evidence of observed and unobserved heterogeneity, which affects both the choice of fertilizer amounts and the marginal returns to fertilizer use. The results demonstrate the key changes behind this silent maize revolution and point to the importance of taking into account farmer heterogeneity in estimating productivity and returns to fertilizer. |
| JEL: | O13 O33 Q12 Q16 |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17801&r=afr |
| By: | Dobronogov, Anton; Farole, Thomas |
| Abstract: | Integration in the East African Community offers significant opportunities not only to expand trade among member states, but more importantly to scale up regional production to take advantage of much larger global market opportunities. Special economic zones are a potentially valuable instrument to facilitate the integration of regional value chains in support of this scaling up. They also have the potential to deliver powerful demonstration effects on the benefits of integration and to help entrench the integration process. This paper discusses the proposal for developing an"economic integration zone"in the East African Community. The benefits of such a zone could be substantial, as would be the practical challenges to implementation -- in particular the political economy challenges. However, a number of institutional and commercial solutions exist to address these challenges. |
| Keywords: | Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics |
| Date: | 2012–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5967&r=afr |
| By: | Okpara, Godwin Chigozie |
| Abstract: | This paper set out to determine the factors that discriminate most in the classification of banks into sound and unsound position using method of discriminant analysis. Data used were sourced from the annual report of the Nigerian deposit and insurance corporation. The findings revealed the order of severity of institutional factors that could lead to bank distress. The none performing loans to total loans contributed about 53.4% of the total discriminant scores while capital to risk weighted asset contributed 19 percent to the group separation of the discriminant function. Others, gross loan to deposit ratio (with 14.34%), average liquidity ratio (with 9.25%) and insured deposit to total deposit (with 3.76%) made little discriminating contributions while the rest of the variables made insignificant contributions. Thus, by this reason of contribution, the 25% non scientifically determined (and subjective based judgment) component weight attached to asset quality in the CAMEL rating should be increased to at least 1/3 (30%) of the total weight components since its components are found to dominate the discriminant score. |
| Keywords: | Soundness; Unsoundness; Bank Distress; Non Performing Loan; Capital to Risk Weighted Assets; CAMEL; Discriminant Analysis |
| JEL: | E58 G18 G32 G21 G01 |
| Date: | 2012–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36474&r=afr |
| By: | Ojo, Marianne |
| Abstract: | Through a consideration of factors which have resulted in a more reduced role for the external auditor in certain jurisdictions – when compared to others, this paper will consider, as well as highlight why an enhanced awareness of the role of the external auditor in such jurisdictions will be vital in an increasingly globalised financial system. It will do so through a consideration of the current, past and future perceptions of external auditors’ roles – with particular reference to selected jurisdictions from Africa, Asia and Latin America. |
| Keywords: | external auditor; audits; regulation; financial; bank; fraud; error; financial statements; Brazil; Malaysia; Nigeria |
| JEL: | E02 K2 G2 D02 D8 |
| Date: | 2012–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36471&r=afr |
| By: | Salvatore Di Falco (Department of Geography and Environment, London School of Economics); Marcella Veronesi (The Professorship of Environmental Policy and Economics (PEPE), Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households’ downside risk exposure (e.g., risk of crop failure) in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The analysis relies on a moment-based specification of the stochastic production function. We estimate a simultaneous equations model with endogenous switching to account for the heterogeneity in the decision to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We find that (i) climate change adaptation reduces downside risk exposure; farm households that implemented climate change adaptation strategies get benefits in terms of a decrease in the risk of crop failure; (ii) farm households that did not adapt would benefit the most in terms of reduction in downside risk exposure from adaptation; and (iii) there are significant differences in downside risk exposure between farm households that did and those that did not adapt to climate change. The analysis also shows that the quasi-option value, that is the value of waiting to gather more information, plays a significant role in farm households’ decision on whether to adapt to climate change. Farmers that are better informed may value less the option to wait to adapt, and so are more likely to adapt than other farmers. |
| Keywords: | adaptation, climate change, endogenous switching, Ethiopia, risk exposure, stochastic production function, skewness |
| JEL: | D80 Q18 Q54 |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ied:wpsied:11-15&r=afr |
| By: | FAYE Ousmane; ISLAM Nizamul; ZULU Eliya |
| Abstract: | We investigate the factors underlying poverty transitions in Nairobi’s slums focusing on whether differences in characteristics make some individuals more prone to enter poverty and persist in, or whether past experience of poverty matters on future poverty situations. Answers to these issues are crucial for designing effective and successful poverty alleviation policies in informal residential settlements in Africa. The paper uses an endogenous switching model, which accounts for initial conditions, non-random attrition, and unobserved heterogeneity. The estimations are based on a two-wave sample of a panel dataset from the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS), the first urban-based Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in Africa. Estimation results indicate that true state dependence (TSD) constitutes the major factor driving poverty persistence. There is little heterogeneity effects; only 10 percent of poverty persistence is likely due to heterogeneity. Moreover, even when household and individual observed characteristics differ notably, the TSD size remains very large. This implies that active anti-poverty programs aimed at breaking the cycle of poverty constitute the most appropriate policies for taking people out of poverty and preventing them to fall back in. Indeed, this does not exclude policies focusing on individual heterogeneities. Active policies for improving individual’s education, personal skills and capacities, or living environment would also allow preventing people entering poverty or persisting in. |
| Keywords: | Poverty dynamics; state dependence; unobserved heterogeneity; attrition; simulated maximum likelihood; urban poverty |
| JEL: | C15 C35 I32 O18 R23 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2011-56&r=afr |
| By: | Abdelaziz Benkhalifa; Mohamed Ayadi; Paul Lanoie (IEA, HEC Montréal) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports the first study of compensating wage differentials for work-related fatalities in an African country. Using original data from the 2002 Tunisian Caisse nationale de la sécurité sociale, statistically significant compensating wage differentials are found. The implied value of life is $ 643800 (US $ 2000). |
| Keywords: | Compensating wage differentials; Value of life |
| JEL: | J17 J28 J31 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iea:carech:1201&r=afr |
| By: | Sophia du Plessis (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Stan du Plessis (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the debate on the level and trajectory of welfare at the Cape of Good Hope during the 18th century. Recent scholarship (for example, Allen 2005) has calculated and compared the levels and evolution of real wages in various European and Asian economies since the early modern period. To this lit-erature we add evidence for unskilled and skilled workers of the Dutch East India Company at the Cape of Good Hope during the 18th century, following De Zwart (2009; 2011), who recently presented evidence for unskilled workers in the Cape for the latter half of the 17th century and the 18th century. We calculate job-specific real wages in a three-step argument; from the narrowest international comparison of wage rates in terms of silver content to one based on a basket of widely consumed goods. The paper’s contributions lie in the breadth of the com-parisons, the inclusion of skilled workers in the comparison and the adaptation of the consumption basket to local conditions and relative prices at the Cape. The results support the hypothesis that at the start of the 18th century, the Cape Col-ony was relatively poor on an international comparison, but as the century un-folded, gained considerably on even the richest contemporary societies. |
| Keywords: | Real wages, Dutch East India Company (VOC), Cape Colony, Compari-sons of living standards, Economic history of South Africa, Economic history of the Cape Colony |
| JEL: | N37 N97 E31 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers153&r=afr |
| By: | Kaminski, Jonathan; Thomas, Alban |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:toulou:http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr/3030/&r=afr |
| By: | Vandeginste, Stef; |
| Abstract: | Presidential elections are likely to be held in Burundi in July 2015. Like in several other African countries, a debate has arisen around the eligibility of the incumbent president at the next presidential elections. This paper offers a legal analysis of the constitutionality of a possible candidacy of President Nkurunziza in 2015. A twofold perspective is adopted. On the one hand, attention is paid to the presidential term limit laid down in the Constitution (including to the provision possibly allowing for a third term). On the other, an analysis is made of the impact of (currently applicable and draft) transitional justice legislation on the possible candidacy of President Nkurunziza. The paper reveals the major impact of the legal (in particular constitutional) status of the Arusha Peace and Reconciliation Agreement of August 2000. It also highlights the crucial role of the Constitutional Court in clarifying several of the unanswered issues highlighted throughout the paper. More generally, the case-study addressed in this paper shows the complexity of the important linkages between post-conflict elections, peace accords, power-sharing and transitional justice. |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:wpaper:2012003&r=afr |
| By: | Mohamed Hassan, Hisham |
| Abstract: | This analytical review explores the links between growth, poverty and inequality in Sudan for the period 1956-2003. This paper build upon different models to investigate empirically the relationship between economic growth – as measured by GDP per capita growth- and inequality as measured by Gini coefficient (the growth, inequality and poverty triangle hypotheses), using data from the national and international sources. The paper tries to answer the following questions: i) whether growth, inequality and poverty are cointegrated, ii( whether growth Granger causes inequality, iii) and whether inequality Granger causes poverty. Finally, a VAR is constructed and impulse response functions (IRFs) are employed to investigate the effects of macroeconomic shocks. The results suggest that growth; poverty and inequality are cointegrated when poverty and inequality are the dependent variable, but are not cointegrated when growth is the dependent variable. In the long- run the causality runs from inequality, poverty to growth, to poverty. In the short-run causal effects, runs from poverty to growth. Thus, there is unidirectional relationship, running from growth to poverty, both in the long- run and short run |
| Keywords: | growth; poverty; inequality; Sudan |
| JEL: | D63 C22 A10 C01 |
| Date: | 2008–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:36651&r=afr |
| By: | Robinson, Elizabeth J.Z.; Albers, Heidi J.; Kirama, Stephen L. |
| Abstract: | Although Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) provide an increasingly popular policy tool for protecting marine stocks and biodiversity, they pose high costs for small-scale fisherfolk who have few alternative livelihood options in poor countries. MPAs often address this burden on local households by providing some benefits to compensate locals and/or induce compliance with restrictions. We argue that MPAs in poor countries can only contribute to sustainability if management induces changes in resource-dependent households’ incentives to fish. With Tanzania’s Mnazi Bay Ruvuma Estuary Marine Park (MBREMP) and its internal villages as an example, we use an economic decision modeling framework as a lens to examine incentives, reaction to incentives, and implications for sustainable MPA management created by park managers’ use of enforcement (“sticks”) and livelihood projects (“carrots”). We emphasize practical implementation issues faced by MBREMP managers and implications for fostering marine ecosystem sustainability in a poor country setting. |
| Keywords: | marine protected areas, sustainable marine reserves, Tanzania, practical enforcement, marine-dependent livelihoods |
| Date: | 2012–02–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-12-03-efd&r=afr |
| By: | Florian LEON |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie dans quelle mesure la concurrence entre les banques peut affecter leur efficience au sein de l'UEMOA. Théoriquement, l'effet net de la concurrence bancaire sur l'efficience est indéterminée, en particulier dans le cas des pays en développement. D'une part, la concurrence oblige les banques à rationaliser leurs méthodes et à améliorer l'allocation des ressources. D'autre part, le pouvoir de marché permet d'améliorer l'information disponible et d'atténuer les problèmes de sélection adverse et d'aléa moral. Cette ambivalence est exacerbée dans le cadre de systèmes financiers opaques tels que ceux des pays d'Afrique Sub-Saharienne. Cet article apporte une réponse empirique à cette indétermination théorique en utilisant les données bancaires de 7 pays de l'UEMOA sur la période 2002-2007. Le principal résultat est l'effet négatif et robuste de la concurrence sur l'efficience-coût des banques alors que son effet sur l'efficience-profit est nul. |
| Keywords: | pouvoir de marche, concurrence, efficience, Indice de Lerner, Banque |
| JEL: | O55 L22 G21 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1321&r=afr |
| By: | Richard Akresh; Damien de Walque; Harounan Kazianga |
| Abstract: | We conducted a unique randomized experiment to estimate the impact of alternative cash transfer delivery mechanisms on household demand for routine preventative health services in rural Burkina Faso. The two-year pilot program randomly distributed cash transfers that were either conditional or unconditional and were given to either mothers or fathers. Families under the conditional cash transfer schemes were required to obtain quarterly child growth monitoring at local health clinics for all children under 60 months old. There were no such requirements under the unconditional programs. Compared with control group households, we find that conditional cash transfers significantly increase the number of preventative health care visits during the previous year, while unconditional cash transfers do not have such an impact. For the conditional cash transfers, transfers given to mothers or fathers showed similar magnitude beneficial impacts on increasing routine visits. |
| JEL: | I15 I38 J13 O15 |
| Date: | 2012–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17785&r=afr |
| By: | Leblois, Antoine; Quirion, Philippe; Alhassane, Agali; Traore, Seydou |
| Abstract: | In the Sudano-Sahelian region, which includes South Niger, the inter-annual variability of the rainy season is high and irrigation is scarce. As a consequence, bad rainy seasons have a massive impact on crop yield and regularly entail food crises. Traditional insurances based on crop damage assessment are not available because of asymmetric information and high transaction costs compared to the value of production. We assess the risk mitigation capacity of an alternative form of insurance which has been implemented in India since 2003: insurance based on a weather index. We compare the capacity of various weather indices to increase utility of a representative risk-averse farmer. We show the importance of using plot-level yield data rather than village averages, which bias results. We also illustrate the need for out-of-sample estimations in order to avoid overfitting. Even with the appropriate index and assuming a substantial risk aversion, we find a limited gain of implementing insurance, roughly corresponding to, or slightly exceeding, the cost of implementing such insurances observed in India. However, when we treat separately the plots with and without fertilizers, we show that the benefit of insurance is higher in the former case. This suggests that insurances may increase the use of risk-increasing inputs like fertilizers and improved cultivars, hence average yields, which are very low in the region. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, index-based insurance., Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty, G21, O12, Q12, Q18, Q54., |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae11:120378&r=afr |
| By: | VERHEYDEN Bertrand; FAYE Ousmane |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes household fertility and child occupation decisions in a risky environment. Fertility decisions are made fi?rst, when only the distribution of shocks is known. When shocks are realized and fertility is ?xed, parents adapt by allocating children?s occupations, i.e. school, paid work and domestic chores. Fertility is decreasing with the shock probability and increasing with parental permanent income. Households facing an adverse shock make more use of child labor and send fewer children to school, unless the total number of children is small. These predictions are tested with data from the Senegalese SEHW (2003) following this two-step methodology. A Poisson model estimates the number of children with classical instruments and household-level information on shock distribution, con?rming the theory?s predictions on fertility. A multivariate Tobit model estimates the determinants of children occupations, including the occurrence of shocks and accounting for the endogeneity of fertility. The number of children increases (decreases) the probability of child specialization (multiple activities). Shock-related variables have an adverse e¤ect on schooling. |
| Keywords: | Fertility; education; child labor; shocks |
| JEL: | J13 J24 O12 O15 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2011-59&r=afr |