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on Africa |
| By: | Nassul S. Kabunga (Georg-August-University Göttingen); Thomas Dubois (International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA)); Matin Qaim (Georg-August-University Göttingen) |
| Abstract: | While tissue culture (TC) technology for vegetative plant propagation is gradually gaining in importance in Africa, rigorous ex post assessments of welfare effects for smallholder farm households is lacking. Using recent survey data and accounting for self-selection in technology adoption, we analyze the impacts of TC banana technology on household income and food security in Kenya. To assess food security outcomes, we employ the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS) – a tool that has not been used for impact assessment before. Estimates of treatment-effects models show that TC banana adoption increases farm and household income by 153% and 50%, respectively. The technology also reduces relative food insecurity in a significant way. These results indicate that TC technology can be welfare enhancing for adopting farm households; its use should be further promoted through upscaling appropriate technology delivery systems. |
| Keywords: | Technology adoption; tissue culture; impact assessment; household income; food security |
| Date: | 2011–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:gotcrc:089&r=afr |
| By: | Robert Gillanders (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the aid effectiveness debate by applying a vector autore- gression model to a panel of Sub-Saharan African countries. This method avoids the need for instrumental variables and allows one to analyse the impact of foreign aid on human development and on economic development simultaneously. The full sample results indicate a small increase in economic growth following a fairly substantial aid shock. The size of the effect puts the result somewhere between the arguments of aid optimists and those of aid pessimists. Economic growth is found to respond more to aid shocks in groups defined by better economic policies, poor institutions and high aid dependence. Human development, for which I use the growth rate of life expectancy as a proxy, responds positively to aid shocks in democracies and in good institutional environments. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Aid, Economic Growth, Human Development, Panel VAR |
| Date: | 2011–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201116&r=afr |
| By: | Pim de Zwart |
| Abstract: | Employing recently assembled wage and price data, this paper sketches the long-term development of real wages at the Cape of Good Hope, from its foundation in 1652 up to the unification of South Africa in 1910. The results show that real wages were consistently above subsistence level, and living standards were continuously improving throughout the period under discussion. The comparison with the most developed parts of Europe has shown that during the early decades of the colony’s existence, the Cape labourers had a relatively low purchasing power. Yet, by the end of the eighteenth century living standards began to close the gap, and during the nineteenth century, Cape living standards were on a par with those on the European continent. An analysis of growth rates suggests that during the second half of the seventeenth century growth was minimal. The eighteenth century was a period of steady (though not spectacular) growth of Cape living standards, while during the same century workers in other parts of the world saw their purchasing power diminish. The nineteenth century, on the other hand, was a period of a general rise of prosperity in Europe, in the light of which the Cape’s welfare growth seems exceptionally slow (in spite of secure property rights and resource windfalls). These findings contrast with the conventional view of South Africa’s economic history. |
| Keywords: | Colonial history, growth, labour, living standards, South Africa |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucg:wpaper:0013&r=afr |
| By: | Thomas Bossuroy (SALDRU, University of Cape Town, South Africa UMR DIAL-Paris-Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Is ethnicity the critical determinant of election results in Africa? We investigate this question empirically on the 2004 presidential poll in Ghana. We use variables from several data sources matched at the district level, and perform econometric analysis on the turnout rate and party vote shares, and on their evolution between two similar polls. We test the accuracy of two alternate models of voting, an ethnic model and a non-ethnic one that includes variables such as education, occupation or wealth. We provide robust evidence that the ethnic factor is a slightly better explaining factor for the structure of votes in Ghana, but does not rule out the significance of the non-ethnic model. We then show that the ethnic model fails to account accurately for the evolution of votes between two polls, which appears as the result of evaluative votes. Since a changeover of political power has occurred repeatedly in Ghana, the analysis of the motives of the pivotal voter is crucial. Our results show that non-ethnic determinants may ultimately drive election outcomes. _________________________________ L’ethnicité est-elle le déterminant majeur des résultats électoraux en Afrique? Nous étudions empiriquement cette question pour le scrutin présidentiel de 2004 au Ghana, en utilisant des données provenant de sources variées, assemblées au niveau du district. Nous conduisons une analyse économétrique du taux de participation et des résultats des partis politiques, ainsi que de leur évolution entre deux élections similaires. Nous testons la précision de deux modèles alternatifs de vote, un modèle ethnique et un non-ethnique qui inclut des variables telles que l’éducation, la profession ou la richesse. Nous montrons que le facteur ethnique surpasse légèrement le modèle non-ethnique pour expliquer la structure des votes au Ghana, même si ce dernier reste statistiquement valide. Mais le modèle ethnique explique très mal l’évolution des votes entre deux élections, qui apparaît comme le résultat d’un vote d’évaluation politique non ethnique. Comme des alternances se sont produites au Ghana plusieurs fois, les motivations de l’électeur pivot sont cruciales. Nos résultats montrent donc que les facteurs non-ethniques semblent déterminer les résultats des élections. |
| Keywords: | Vote, Ethnicity, Elections, Africa. |
| JEL: | D72 O1 |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201105&r=afr |
| By: | Marisa Coetzee (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | The paper estimates the impact of the South African Child Support Grant (CSG) on child health, nutrition and education. Data from the 2008 South African National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) are used. Two non-experimental treatment evaluation techniques, both relying on propensity scores, are applied to six different outcome variables. Using propensity score matching with a binary outcome variable, no convincing evidence of improvements on any of the outcome variables is found. A second technique is therefore also applied, using a generalised form of the propensity scores. This follows the approach of Hirano and Imbens (2004) and Agüero et al. (2009). The generalised approach estimates a positive treatment effect for children’s height-for-age and progress through the school system. Although these estimates do provide some evidence of the positive effect of the Child Support Grant on the lives of children, the estimates are small and do not provide clear evidence that the transfers received by caregivers are spent mainly on improving the well-being of beneficiary children. Some potential and plausible explanations for this result are discussed in the paper. Nevertheless, the findings seem to suggest that some of the cash transferred through the Child Support Grant appears to be spent on improving the well-being of children. |
| Keywords: | Conditional cash transfers, child health and nutrition, continuous treatment estimator, South Africa |
| JEL: | I38 H53 C21 D13 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers144&r=afr |
| By: | Tatiana Lysenko; Geoff Barnard |
| Abstract: | South Africa’s macroeconomic framework has served the economy well, but should be strengthened to make the economy more resilient to external shocks. Enhancing the credibility of the inflation target would provide the monetary authorities with more space for flexibility in the face of exogenous shocks. To ease the pressure on the exchange rate emanating from high commodity prices and sentiment-driven surges in capital inflows, the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves by the central bank should be more rapid, and the removal of remaining controls on capital outflows should be accelerated. Fiscal policy has been generally sound, but should be tighter and more counter-cyclical during the economic upswings to prevent a structural deterioration of the fiscal balance and to create more room for manoeuvre during downturns. A fiscal rule that institutionally constrains discretionary policy may facilitate this task. It would also help ensure that the strong public commitment to address major social challenges, improve access to public services and promote long-term growth by investing in physical infrastructure and human capital can be sustained. In conjunction with a greater effort to identify and tax economic rents from natural resource extraction, consideration should be given to establishing a mechanism to manage commodity price windfalls. This paper relates to the 2010 Economic Survey of South Africa (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/southafrica).<P>Renforcer le dispositif de la politique macroéconomique en Afrique du Sud<BR>Le dispositif de politique macroéconomique de l’Afrique du Sud a produit de bons résultats, mais il convient de le renforcer pour assurer une plus grande résistance aux chocs externes. Améliorer la crédibilité de l’objectif d’inflation donnerait aux autorités monétaires plus de latitude pour réagir aux chocs exogènes. Afin de réduire la pression à la hausse du taux de change, résultant du prix élevé des matières premières et d’entrées de capitaux spéculatifs, il faudrait que la banque centrale laisse augmenter plus rapidement ses réserves de change et que la suppression des contrôles des mouvements de capitaux encore en vigueur s’accélère. La politique budgétaire a généralement été saine, mais devrait être resserrée et devenir plus anticyclique pendant les phases de reprise, pour éviter une dégradation structurelle du solde budgétaire et élargir la marge de manoeuvre disponible pendant les récessions. Une règle budgétaire faciliterait la tâche en soumettant les mesures discrétionnaires à une contrainte institutionnelle. Elle aiderait à garantir aussi le respect durable du ferme engagement de l’État de relever les grands défis sociaux, d’améliorer l’accès aux services publics et de promouvoir la croissance à long terme en investissant dans les infrastructures physiques et le capital humain. Tout en s’efforçant davantage de recenser et de taxer les rentes économiques liées à l’exploitation des ressources naturelles, on pourrait envisager d’instituer un mécanisme de gestion des recettes exceptionnelles tirées des matières premières. Ce document se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de l’Afrique du Sud 2010 (www.oecd.org/eco/etudes/afriquedusud). |
| Keywords: | fiscal policy, exchange rates, capital flows, monetary policy, fiscal rules, exchange rate policy, economy, inflation, inflation targeting, South Africa, interest rates, politique budgétaire, taux de change, politique monétaire, règles budgétaires, économie, inflation, taux d'intérêt, ciblage de l’inflation, Afrique du Sud, politique de taux de change |
| JEL: | E30 E31 E50 E52 E58 E61 E62 F32 |
| Date: | 2011–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:847-en&r=afr |
| By: | Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Deininger, Klaus; Goldstein, Markus |
| Abstract: | Although increased global demand for land has led to renewed interest in African land tenure, few models to address these issues quickly and at the required scale have been identified or evaluated. The case of Rwanda's nation-wide and relatively low-cost land tenure regularization program is thus of great interest. This paper evaluates the short-term impact (some 2.5 years after completion) of the pilots undertaken to fine-tune the approach using a geographic discontinuity design with spatial fixed effects. Three key findings emerge from the analysis. First, the program improved land access for legally married women (about 76 percent of married couples) and prompted better recordation of inheritance rights without gender bias. Second, the analysis finds a very large impact on investment and maintenance of soil conservation measures. This effect was particularly pronounced for female headed households, suggesting that this group had suffered from high levels of tenure insecurity, which the program managed to reduce. Third, land market activity declined, allowing rejection of the hypothesis that the program caused a wave of distress sales or widespread landlessness by vulnerable people. Implications for program design and policy are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Common Property Resource Development,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Housing and Land,Urban Housing,Rural Land Policies for Poverty Reduction |
| Date: | 2011–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5765&r=afr |
| By: | Pierre André (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA); Sandrine Mesplé-Somps (DIAL, IRD, Paris) |
| Abstract: | The body of literature on purely democratic countries can sometimes fail to explain the behavior of government in semi-democratic African countries. Empirical and theoretical political economic papers find that public funds target ruling party supporters and swing districts. Our results, however, suggest that the opposite was true of Ghana. We observe that pro-government districts received less public investment when the NDC was in power. We posit that this finding is partially driven by the government's will to curry favor with opposition politicians. Indeed, in addition to pursuing its electoral objectives, the government of an emerging democracy may fear political instability and keep the lid on potential unrest by bargaining with opposition leaders. Our analysis also shows that, when controlling for votes and other covariates (including wealth, urbanization and density), public goods allocation is not driven by ethnic group targeting either. _________________________________ La littérature économique portant sur la compréhension des comportements distributifs des gouvernements de pays démocratiques peut échouer à comprendre les mécanismes distributifs à l’oeuvre dans des pays semi-démocratiques africains. Les travaux théoriques et empiriques d’économie politique trouvent généralement que les partis au pouvoir ciblent les fonds publics soit vers les populations qui les soutiennent fortement, soit vers les endroits où les résultats des élections antérieures sont en ballotage séré. Cependant, nous montrons le contraire dans le cas du Ghana. Nous observons que, lorsque le parti NDC était au pouvoir, les districts les plus pro-gouvernementaux ont reçus moins de biens publics que les autres districts. De même nous ne décelons pas de ciblage vers les districts en ballotage. Nous soutenons qu’un tel phénomène est en partie du au fait que le gouvernement, pour rester en place, souhaite avoir les bonnes grâces de l’opposition. C’est ainsi que dans un pays semi-démocratique tel que le Ghana, le gouvernement tout en poursuivant des objectifs électoralistes craint l’instabilité politique et tente de maitriser toute agitation politique potentielle en négociant avec les leadeurs de l’opposition. Notre analyse montre aussi qu’en contrôlant par les votes et autres co-variables telles que le taux d’urbanisation, le niveau de richesse et la densité de population, les allocations de fonds publics ne sont pas fonction de considérations ethniques. |
| Keywords: | Public goods, Elections, Politics, Ghana. |
| JEL: | D72 O55 R53 |
| Date: | 2011–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201104&r=afr |
| By: | Richard J. Grimbeek (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Sunel Grimbeek (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Steven F. Koch (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | Merger decisions made by the South African Competition Commission from April 2002 to March 2010 are analyzed to empirically identify the factors, which have historically in uenced prohibition, conditional approval and unconditional approval. The key explanatory variables are linked to provisions of the 1998 Competition Act, as well as the timing of merger notications, such that the analysis provides insight into the consistency of merger decisions with respect to the legal requirements specied in the Act. Although the legislation includes standard economic concerns, it also includes a provision for advancing public interests and development concerns. Initial results point to diering behaviour over the time period, which suggests that the Commission is inconsistent; however, the majority of those inconsistencies are removed, once additional measures of market contestibility are included in the analysis. The nal results suggest that the Commission is less likely to approve mergers that they link to markets that are less contestable. Furthermore, in addition to protecting competition, the Commission is simultaneously protecting other public interests. Therefore, our research supports the hypothesis that the Commission consistantly applies its legislative remit. |
| Keywords: | South African Competition Commission, Merger Decisions |
| JEL: | K21 L40 D78 |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201117&r=afr |
| By: | Gboyega, Alex; Soreide, Tina; Le, Tuan Minh; Shukla, G. P. |
| Abstract: | The relatively slow pace of Nigeria's development has often been attributed to the phenomenon of the resource curse whereby the nature of the state as a"rentier"dilutes accountability for development and political actors are able to manipulate institutions to sustain poor governance. The impact of the political elite's resource-control and allocation of revenues on core democratic mechanisms is central to understand the obstacles to development and governance failure. Given that problems of petroleum sector governance are extremely entrenched in Nigeria, the key question is whether and how it is possible to get out of a poor equilibrium after fifty years of oil production. This paper uses a political economy perspective to analyze the governance weaknesses along the petroleum sector value chain and attempts to establish the links between challenges in sector regulation and the following major political and economic attributes: (i) strong executive control on petroleum governance in a political environment of weak checks and balances; (ii) regulatory and operating roles bundled into one institution, thereby creating conflict of interest; and (iii) manipulation of elections and political appointments. The restoration of democratic government has helped improve transparency and management of oil revenue and reforms at the federal level and proposed reforms of the petroleum sector hold much promise. At the same time, the judiciary has started to restore confidence that it will serve as a check and balance on the executive and the electoral process. Yet, these reforms are fragile and need to be deepened and institutionalized. They must be addressed not as purely technocratic matters but as issues of political economy and vested interests that must, through regulation and reform, be aligned with the public interest and a vision of Nigerian development. |
| Keywords: | National Governance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Energy Production and Transportation,Public Sector Corruption&Anticorruption Measures |
| Date: | 2011–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5779&r=afr |