|
on Africa |
| By: | Minot, Nicholas |
| Keywords: | error correction model, food crisis, Food prices, Price transmission, Staple food, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1059&r=afr |
| By: | Ulimwengu, John; Sanyal, Prabuddha |
| Abstract: | The NEPAD Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) has been endorsed by African Heads of State and Governments as a vision for the restoration of agricultural growth, food security, and rural development in Africa. The program aims at stimulating agriculture-led development to alleviate poverty and hunger, and achieve sustainable food security. The creation of a union is often rationalized on grounds of moving the equilibrium toward the first best solution whenever independent policies generate spillovers. This arises as a common agenda can significantly reduce the scope of free-riding behavior among member countries. In addition, cross-border externalities arising out of higher levels of market integration entails countries to agree on policy coordination. Using a Spatial Durbin Model for panel data, the present study explores the extent and magnitude of agricultural production spillover that might validate the adoption of CAADP agenda among African countries, especially among Sub-Saharan African countries. Overall, our results suggest the presence of positive and significant agricultural production spillover. No evidence of beggar-thy-neighbor or negative spillover policies was found; on average, each country received 2.5 percent growth as a result of spillover. Finally, our results suggest that convergence dynamics is much stronger when spillover is accounted for which provides a rationale for a common agenda such as CAADP. |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, CAADP, Convergence, Growth, production, spatial model, Spillover, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1069&r=afr |
| By: | Kai Thaler (University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | Given the high levels of crime and violence in South Africa, there may be a temptation for citizens to arm themselves for protection. Using quantitative survey data from the Cape Area Panel Study and qualitative interviews with residents of high-violence neighborhoods, this paper examines the question of who carries weapons outside the home in Cape Town and what the effects of weapon carrying may be. Multiple regression analysis is used to test the significance of possible socioeconomic drivers of weapon carrying and the results are discussed in the South African social context. Weapon carrying is found to be associated with both assault perpetration and victimization, suggesting that it is part of a violent lifestyle in which weapon carriers are likely to use their weapons both offensively and defensively. Possible weaponrelated policies for violence reduction are also discussed. |
| Date: | 2010–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:85&r=afr |
| By: | Madani , Dorsati H.; Mas-Guix, Natalia |
| Abstract: | The original goal of the Motor Industry Development Program was to help the automotive industry in South Africa adjust to trade liberalization and become internationally competitive. In simple terms, it consists of an import/export complementation arrangement, whereby the local value-added of components or built-up vehicles exported earns credits that can be used to rebate import duties on components and vehicles. This study provides a first attempt at a quantitative analysis of the Motor Industry Development Program using the difference-in-difference methodology, in order to assess to what extent the program was effective in improving South Africa's automotive export performance during 1996-2006. The authors take a two-tier approach. First, they perform a comparative study using different manufacturing sectors within South Africa; second, they apply this methodology to analyze South Africa and a number of comparator countries that are automotive producers and exporters. The analysis finds that the impact of the program on automotive exports in South Africa is positive and significant. In particular, (i) the largest response to the program in terms of improved manufacturing exports occurs with a delay after the adoption of the law, suggesting that exports need time to fully react to the incentives; and (ii) in turn, the effectiveness of the tax incentives fades in time, reaffirming the common belief that tax incentives may affect some business decisions particularly in the short run, but they are not a primary consideration for investors in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Free Trade,Debt Markets,Tax Law |
| Date: | 2011–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5585&r=afr |
| By: | Kelly, Valerie; Boughton, Duncan; Magen, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | In 2009, the World Bank published a comparative study of cotton sector reforms, based on detailed case studies carried out during 2007/08 in nine of Africaâs main cotton producing countries. The purpose of the study was to draw practical insights from the diversity of experiences in institutional reforms of cotton sectors and to better understand the strengths and weaknesses of the different types of sectors operating in Africa, the likely effects of specific types of policy change, and the possible ways forward. This paper develops a concept note for additional research that would address the perceived weaknesses of the earlier work. The underlying hypothesis of the proposed study is that technology research, farmer training, and policy and institutional reforms to improve cotton sector productivity and incomes tend to be designed for typical or model farmers. This often fails to take into account the diversity among cotton farmers and what this diversity implies for cotton sector development in general and the ability of the cotton sector to contribute to poverty reduction in particular. The proposed research is expected to contribute to aggregate growth in cotton productivity and incomes through the design of more targeted support interventions based on a better understanding of the strategies, capacities, and constraints of the different types of cotton farmers. |
| Keywords: | Africa, Cotton, Sustainability, Profitability, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midiwp:101163&r=afr |
| By: | Kirimi, Lilian; Sitko, Nicholas; Jayne, T.S.; Karin, Francis; Muyanga, Milu; Sheahan, Megan; Flock, James; Bor, Gilbert |
| Abstract: | Based on the findings of this study, the following actions are proposed for consideration by the Government of Kenya: 1. Raise public investment in maize seed breeding and agronomic research to make it possible for improvements in smallholder crop productivity. Based on research evaluating the returns to alternative investments in agriculture, public expenditures in maize seed breeding and agronomy may constitute the single most important investment to promote broad-based productivity growth and poverty reduction in Kenya. 2. Explore options for improving public and private extension programs to enable farmers to adopt improved farm technologies generated from point 1. 3. Examine options for bringing more land in Kenya under potential cultivation by smallholder farmers. Unless the land constraints in currently densely populated rural areas of Kenya are relieved, it is unlikely that a large portion of farmers in Kenya that own less than one hectare will be able to rise out of the semi-subsistence conditions that keep them trapped in poverty. 4. Support training programs to enable smallholders to develop more effective marketing strategies and to negotiate more effectively with traders, in order to raise the prices that they receive for their maize. 5. Raise public investment in road, rail, and port infrastructure to reduce marketing costs as well as the cost of modern inputs such as fertilizer to the farm gate. Rehabilitating the Kenyan railway system would be a key priority. If this were done prior to 2009, maize imports could have arrived in greater volumes much faster in early 2009 and pushed food prices down faster. 6. When early warning estimates predict a need for large import quantities, remove the import tariff soon enough to allow traders to import over a sufficiently long period to avoid transport capacity constraints and domestic stockouts. 7. Review the rationale for denying import licenses when applied for by traders. 8. Consider the costs and benefits from the standpoint of governments of transitioning from discretionary trade and marketing policy to adherence to more systematic rules-based policies. Nurturing credible commitment in regard to trade policy is likely to promote market predictability and therefore, lead to greater supplies and price stability in food markets during times of domestic production shortfalls. 9. Consider whether current proposals for international stockholding would be effective in the presence of domestic transport capacity constraints. International physical or financial reserves would not be able to relieve localized food production shortfalls unless local transport capacity is adequate to absorb sufficient imports within a concentrated period or unless import licenses are provided or the state carries out or contracts for the importation from the international stock source. |
| Keywords: | Kenya, maize, marketing, food security, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midiwp:101172&r=afr |
| By: | Mogues, Tewodaj; Petracco, Carly; Randriamamonjy, Josee |
| Keywords: | agricultural extension, benefit incidence analysis, Development strategies, Food Security Program, water facilities, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1057&r=afr |
| By: | Bashaasha, Bernard; Mangheni, Margaret Najjingo; Nkonya, Ephraim |
| Keywords: | Decentralization, Development strategies, rural service delivery, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1063&r=afr |
| By: | Tanguy Bernard; Stefan Dercon; Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse |
| Abstract: | Fatalism is considered pervaisve, not leaste within many poor communities. In this paper, we explore whether 'fatalistic' beliefs have implications for the attitudes and behaviour of poor rural households towards investment in the future. We first explore the idea of fatalos, drawing inspiration from theories in psychology focusing on the role of locus of control and self-efficacy, and from the theoretical framework of aspiration failure as developed in recent economic literature. using survey data from rural Ethiopia, we find evidence of fatalistic beliefs among a substantial group of rural households, as well as indicators consistent withy a small aspiration gap and low self-efficay. We also find that such beliefs consistently correlate with lower demand for credit, in terms of loan size, repayment horizon and productive purposes. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2011-03&r=afr |
| By: | Sean Archer (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | One of the most dangerous aspects of the global knowledge-based economy lies in the tensions created by the growing ‘knowledge gap’ between the knowledge-rich countries of the North and the (generally) knowledge-poor countries of the South. Wealth creates the ability to create the knowledge that can be used to create further wealth. But, without adequate means to distribute the benefits accruing from such knowledge, social disparities, and the jealousies they invoke, will only increase. Editorial, Nature 6714, 1999: 1. |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:52&r=afr |
| By: | Diallo, Amadou Sekou |
| Abstract: | In most developing countries, historically, the main strategy for improving the food sector has focused on increasing farm-level production. But in recent years, with the emphasis on value chain analysis, there has been much more focus on subsector studies, demand-driven approaches, and improving vertical coordination to assure product quality to final consumption markets. Millet, sorghum, and later rice were the traditional leading three cereal crops produced and consumed in Mali. Maize has trailed them for more than two decades, but from mid 1990s on, it has been produced and consumed in much larger quantities. Given the potentials of maize, developing and better organizing its subsector has the potential to not only increase revenues for maize farmers, but also create profitable opportunities for other actors in the subsector (traders, marketers, processors, industries, and consumers). This paper seeks to provide a description of the changing supply and demand dynamics for maize in Mali, the organization of the marketing channels and players, and the characteristics of the main consumption markets. The main conceptual tools to be used are subsector analysis and the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) approach. The paper will draw on literature reviews, the authorâs personal interviews with value chain participants, and tabular and graphical analysis of production and price data to address the reasons behind the changes in production and demand, how the demand is likely to evolve, how the structure of the subsector might be affected, and what will be the implications for public sector investments and policies. |
| Keywords: | maize, value chain, Mali, cereals, food security, agricultural marketing, livestock feed, industrial organization, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, Marketing, L11-Production, Pricing, and Market Structure, Size Distribution of Firms, N57-Africa, Oceania, O17-Formal and Informal Sectors, Shadow Economy, Institutional Arrangements, O33-Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes, Q12-Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q13-Agricultural Markets and Marketing, Cooperatives, Agribusiness, Q18-Agricultural Policy, Food Policy, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:midagr:101316&r=afr |
| By: | Carlos Bozzoli; Tilman Brück; Tony Muhumuza |
| Abstract: | We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust. |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcn:rwpapr:40&r=afr |
| By: | Annim, Samuel Kobina; Dasmani, Isaac; Armah, Mark |
| Abstract: | The study relies on Ghana’s Living Standard Measurement Survey to test the hypothesis of no relationship between credit and household food consumption expenditure. We use single stage and pooled least squares given the non-availability of national panel data in Ghana and lack of better instruments in the Living Standard data. While cognisant of the adverse effect of endogeneity we observe that our finding fails to provide enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. This suggests that access to credit does not contribute to the smoothening of household consumption. This observation cuts across different sub-samples based on socio-economic classification. We recommend caution in propagating the ability of credit in smoothening consumption. |
| Keywords: | FINANCE; HOUSEHOLD; CONSUMPTION; INCOME |
| JEL: | I30 G21 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:29278&r=afr |
| By: | Carlos Bozzoli (German Institute of Economic Research); Tilman Brück (German Institute of Economic Research); Tony Muhumuza (German Institute of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust. |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:88&r=afr |
| By: | Melesse, Wondemhunegn Ezezew |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia’s exchange rate policies have been a bone of contention for concerned economic analysts and commentators alike. This study takes a new look at the record to explore the impact of exchange rate liberalization reforms on export growth in Ethiopia. I employ generalized method of moments estimators (GMM) techniques on time series data for the period 1981-2009. The study does not support the widely held view that exchange rate reforms induce export growth. But world income was found to positively impact Ethiopia’s export receipts over time. |
| Keywords: | Real Exchange Rate; Devaluation; Export Performance |
| JEL: | F00 B22 C22 A10 |
| Date: | 2011–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:29316&r=afr |
| By: | Rashid, Shahidur; Lemma, Solomon |
| Abstract: | Holding strategic grain reserves to address food price hikes has received renewed attentions in recent years. This paper examines such a program in Ethiopia that has been successful in addressing several emergencies since the 1990s. The analysis suggests that the key ingredients behind the success are a unique institutional design, coordination during emergencies with food-based safety net programs, and keeping the grain stocks to a minimum. Institutional design is unique because, unlike similar agencies in other countries, Ethiopia's Emergency Food Security Reserve Administration (EFSRA) is independent of price stabilization and hence is not engaged in buying and selling of grain. The paper also demonstrates that scaling up school feeding programs will generate additional food demand and an effective outlet for stock rotation; and that increasing the stock level for price stabilization will adversely affect both grain markets and the performance of the EFSRA. |
| Keywords: | strategic grain reserves, agricultural price policies, safety net programs, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:01054&r=afr |
| By: | Katherine Eyal (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Ingrid Woolard (SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of the child support grant on mothers' labour supply in South Africa. Identification is based on the use of specific samples, such as black mothers, aged 20 to 45, whose youngest child is aged within 2 years of the age eligibility cut-off, and unanticipated variation over the years in the age eligibility cut-off. Balancing tests across the age cut-o s are used to show that there are no signi cant di erences between mothers of eligible and ineligible children in the samples used, over the years. Different techniques are used to estimate the effect of the child support grant from many angles, including simple OLS as a bench mark, a difference in difference estimator, using appropriately constructed treatment and control groups, instrumental variables estimates, and descriptive analysis. The effect of having an age eligible child is large. Mothers who become recipients in their twenties see an average increase in employment probability of 15%, and in labour force participation of 9%. Many robustness and specification checks are used, including placebo regressions in the pre-treatment years, to ensure the estimated effect is not due to age or another variable. |
| Date: | 2011–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:53&r=afr |
| By: | Ulimwengu, John; Sanyal, Prabuddha |
| Abstract: | In many developing countries, to sustain the provision of agricultural services to farmers, many have advocated the use of service fees. Successful implementation of such schemes requires understanding of determinants of farmers' willingness to pay. In this paper we use a multivariate probit approach to investigate farmers' stated willingness to pay for different agricultural services including soil fertility management, crop protection, farm management, improved produce quality /varieties, on-farm storage (post-harvest), improved individual and group marketing, and disease control. Data are from the Uganda National Household Survey 2005/2006. Controlling for individual characteristics and regional heterogeneity, our results suggest that farmers with access to information on proposed agricultural service are less willing to pay for it. Similarly, access to extension service tends to reduce farmers' willingness to pay. Market access plays also a significant role; farmers with available market are more willing to pay for agricultural services than those without available market. On the reverse, distance to the market is inversely correlated with the willingness to pay for agricultural services. The results also suggest that land ownership matters; indeed, increase in the size of land owned by farmers increases their willingness to pay for agricultural services. As expected, farmers' income, especially agricultural income significantly increases farmers' willingness to pay for agricultural services. Overall, decisions to pay or not for these services are not independent from each other implying that joint supply of these services should be recommended. |
| Keywords: | agricultural services, Farmers, multivariate probit, willingness to pay, Markets, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1070&r=afr |
| By: | Bereket Kebede; Marcela Tarazona; Alistair Munro; Arjan Verschoor |
| Abstract: | Using data from experimental games and household survey from 1, 200 married couples in three sites in Ethipoia, this paer uses different versions of a voluntary contribution mechanism to test for household efficiency. The experimental and econometric analyses provide many interesting results that have far-reaching implications for intra-houisehold models. Efficiency in contribution behaviour is decisively rejected in all treatments casting doubt on 'unitary' and 'collective' household models that assume Pareto optimality - significant amounts of potential surplus are not realised. Contribution rates by males and females are not significantly different from each other undermining models that argue females tend to contribute more to the family (for example, Sen 1990). Information on itital endowments of spouses improves contribution rates (efficiency) in some treatments while not having effect in others suggesting that the effect of information is context dependent. Actual and expected contribution rates of spouses are systematically different; husbands' expect their wives will contribute more than their actual contributions and wives expect their husbands will contribute lower than actual contribution. These systematic errors in expectations imply that the attainment if equilibrium in a game theoretic framework is unlikely. Statistical tests indicate that instead of efficiency considerations other norms are likely important. For example, in many of the treatments spouses contributed around half of their endowments implying either a norm like fairness or focal points influence decisions. Overall, most of the empirical resulst cast doubt on cooperative models and provide some support for behaviour guided either by farirness or other norms. |
| Keywords: | household efficiency, intra-household models, experiemental games, ethiopia |
| JEL: | D13 C93 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2011-01&r=afr |
| By: | Linguère Mously MBAYE; Jean-Louis ARCAND |
| Abstract: | Illegal immigration from the developing world to rich countries is one of the most controversial topics today. Using a unique data set on potential illegal migrants collected in Dakar, Senegal, we characterize the preferences and characteristics of illegal migrants, and the manner in which these factors interact so as to yield observed behavior. On the basis of our theoretical model, we evaluate a measure of the time and risk preferences through the individual discount rates and the individual coefficients of absolute risk aversion. Then, we test empirically our theoretical propositions and we show that these variables play a role, in the illegal migration decision, in the willingness to pay a smuggler and in the choice of the method of migration, at least as important as "classical" migration determinants such as the expected wage in the host country. |
| Keywords: | Illegal Migration; Preferences; Expectations |
| JEL: | R23 O16 O15 F22 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1243&r=afr |
| By: | Kwikiriza, Norman; Katungi, Enid; Horna, Daniela |
| Abstract: | Increasingly, research has indicated that in more risky production environments, genetic variation within species and within population increases the ability to respond to the increasing challenges of environmental stress. This paper analyses the role of banana variety diversity in reducing yield losses associated with biophysical production constraints in Uganda. A damage abatement framework is applied to enable estimation of the contribution of both direct and indirect inputs to the banana yield per unit of area. Primary data were gathered from 120 households. Results indicate that banana variety diversity contributes positively to reducing yield losses caused by biophysical constraints, particularly pests and diseases, but trade-offs exist. High banana variety diversity also has a significant but negative direct impact on banana yields. These trade-offs imply that while banana variety diversity should be promoted for its risk-reducing effects, its adoption beyond what farmers are practicing will largely depend on their objectives, access to alternative abatement agents, and their ability to bear risk. Given the current banana production environment of limited abatement agents and high biotic stress, enhancing diversity appears to be an important option despite trade-offs. |
| Keywords: | banana diversity, direct inputs, indirect/damage abatement inputs, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:01051&r=afr |
| By: | Jean-Louis Arcand (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Linguère M'Baye (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | Illegal immigration from the developing world to rich countries is one of the most controversial topics today. Using a unique data set on potential illegal migrants collected in Dakar, Senegal, we characterize the preferences and characteristics of illegal migrants, and the manner in which these factors interact so as to yield observed behavior. On the basis of our theoretical model, we evaluate a measure of the time and risk preferences through the individual discount rates and the individual coefficients of absolute risk aversion. Then, we test empirically our theoretical propositions and we show that these variables play a role, in the illegal migration decision, in the willingness to pay a smuggler and in the choice of the method of migration, at least as important as "classical" migration determinants such as the expected wage in the host country. |
| Keywords: | Illegal Migration; Preferences; Expectations |
| Date: | 2011–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00575606&r=afr |
| By: | Wouterse, Fleur |
| Abstract: | This study applies regression analysis as well as a non-parametric method to survey data from Burkina Faso to analyze the role of human capital in explaining technical efficiency in smallholder agricultural production. Exploiting the panel nature of the data and explicitly treating human capital inputs as endogenous, a two-stage estimation method is used for the analysis of determinants of data envelopment analysis (DEA) technical efficiency scores in a double-bootstrap procedure. Findings suggest that the impact of human capital on technical efficiency differs strongly by gender. Strong positive returns exist for education of females, whereas male education is associated with higher inefficiency. Body mass index of adult females also positively relates to technical efficiency. At the community level, presence of a clinic, connection to the electrical grid, presence of a secondary school, and year-round accessibility of the community are found to be vital for human capital formation. |
| Keywords: | Human capital, non-parametrics, public services, Smallholders, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1068&r=afr |
| By: | Richard Akresh (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Leonardo Lucchetti (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Harsha Thirumurthy (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) |
| Abstract: | This is the first paper using household survey data from two countries involved in an international war (Eritrea and Ethiopia) to measure the conflict’s impact on children’s health in both nations. The identification strategy uses event data to exploit exogenous variation in the conflict’s geographic extent and timing and the exposure of different children’s birth cohorts to the fighting. The paper uniquely incorporates GPS information on the distance between survey villages and conflict sites to more accurately measure a child’s war exposure. War-exposed children in both countries have lower height-for-age Z-scores, with the children in the warinstigating and losing country (Eritrea) suffering more than the winning nation (Ethiopia). Negative impacts on boys and girls of being born during the conflict are comparable to impacts for children alive at the time of the war. Effects are robust to including region-specific time trends, alternative conflict exposure measures, and an instrumental variables strategy. |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:89&r=afr |
| By: | Martens, Anja Kristina |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes drivers of global change and their impacts on the current and future availability and accessibility of water resources in the Nile Basin. Drivers include changes in demography, climate, the socioeconomy, and politics, all of which are likely to increase the demand for freshwater and thus competition over its use across riparian countries. As a result of historic bilateral agreements, Egypt, as the most downstream country, uses the lion's share of the Nile's waters, which makes reallocation particularly difficult. Egypt is nearly totally dependent on water from upstream countries but considers any change of the status quo a threat to its national (water) security. Ninety-six percent of Egypt's water originates outside its territory—86 percent in Ethiopia. This paper assesses the special upstream–downstream relationship in the Nile Basin and the potential for change as a result of global change. It hypothesizes that under global change, not only will water availability in the Nile Basin change but so will the current hydropolitical situation in the basin. In any case, meeting the challenges in the Nile Basin depends on cooperation among countries and regulation of competing interests and demands. Avenues for hydropolitical reform, including the Nile Basin Initiative, and the role of China and other donors or investors are discussed. The findings—that global change might well bring down the old hydropolitical regime—are confirmed by recent developments, in particular, the signing by five upstream countries of a new framework agreement for management and development of the Nile Basin. |
| Keywords: | Nile Basin, hydropolitics, Cooperation, Conflict, global change, Reform, |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:01052&r=afr |
| By: | Menji, Sisay |
| Abstract: | Abstract In this study analysis of factors affecting export supply of Ethiopia, during the period 1981 – 2004, have been made using co integration analysis. Data trend reveals that Ethiopian export performance was highly volatile during the period, on average merchandise exports have been growing at 7% per annum, while manufacturing exports were growing at 4% per annum. The trend also reveals that Ethiopia’s export sector is mainly dominated by few primary commodities, where manufacturing exports account for less than 15% of merchandise exports on average. The two models estimated depict that merchandise export volumes are significantly influenced by gross capital formation (proxy for production capacity) and share of trade in GDP (proxy for trade liberalization) while other variables; terms of trade, real effective exchange rate, foreign income, and foreign direct investment were found to be insignificant. Manufacturing exports equation reveals an interesting result, manufacturing exports supply was found to be negatively & significantly affected by foreign income. Similar to merchandise export results, manufacturing exports were also found to be positively affected by gross capital formation. Terms of trade, real effective exchange rate, share of trade in GDP, and foreign direct investment were found to be insignificant. The study concludes with recommendations to increase share of manufactured exports and diversify export base of the country. |
| Keywords: | Export Growth; Merchandise Exports; Manufacturing Exports; Error-Correction (Co-Integration) Method |
| JEL: | F41 |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:29427&r=afr |
| By: | Kati Schindler (German Institute for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of intra-household time allocation in post-war Rwanda. A decade after the 1994 genocide, Rwanda still bears the demographic impact of the war, in which at least 800,000 people died and the majority of casualties were adult males. The paper explores two unique features: exogenous variation in household types and large variation in regional cohort-specific sex ratios. Results indicate that, first, exposure to violence and male death can be a trigger of change in gender roles. Second, there is little flexibility to negotiate responsibilities within the household. Third, the local marriage market impacts the division of labor. Young, unmarried women engage more intensely in typical female activities when the shortage of men is severe. Conforming to the female gender role may be a strategy to improve their chances to marry. |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hic:wpaper:90&r=afr |