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on Africa |
| By: | Panicos O. Demetriades; Gregory A. James |
| Abstract: | Utilizing the latest panel cointegration methods we provide new empirical evidence from 18 countries that suggests that the link between finance and growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is ‘broken’. Specifically, our findings suggest that banking system development in this region follows economic growth. They also indicate that there is no link between bank credit and economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Panel cointegration; cross-sectional dependence; African financial under-development; African credit markets |
| JEL: | G21 O16 |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lec:leecon:11/17&r=afr |
| By: | Gbewopo Attila (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the microeconomic determinants of the perception of corruption in twelve Sub-Saharan African countries. Unlike the indicators of corruption based on the opinion of international experts, the study focuses on corrupt practices as experienced by the African people themselves. The results of our estimates, using an ordered probit indicate that the individual characteristics such as age and sex significantly affect the perception people have of corruption as do social and political factors like access to information (press, media, radio). However, neither democracy nor participation in demonstrations, seem to affect the attitude of individuals towards corruption. |
| Keywords: | corruption;Sub-Saharan Africa;Ordered Probit |
| Date: | 2011–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556805&r=afr |
| By: | Huillery, Elise |
| Abstract: | Did colonization change the distribution of prosperity within French-speaking West Africa? Using a new database on both pre-colonial and colonial contexts, this paper gives evidence that Europeans tended to settle in more prosperous pre-colonial areas and that the European settlement had a strong positive impact on current outcomes, even in an extractive colonial context, resulting in a positive relationship between pre and post-colonial performances. I argue that the African hostility towards colonial power to colonisation provides a random variation in European settlement since it damaged the profitability of colonial activities and dissuaded European from settling, but does not have a direct effect on current outcomes. Rich and hostile areas received less European settlers than they would have received had they not been so hostile, resulting in lower current performances partly due to lower colonial investments. Despite the absence of a “reversal of fortune” within former French West Africa, some of the most prosperous pre-colonial areas lost their advantage because of their hostility: other areas caught up and became the new leaders in the region. |
| Keywords: | Economic history; West Africa; Colonization; |
| JEL: | O11 P16 N37 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/4316&r=afr |
| By: | Patrick Guillaumont (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | While after a long stagnation growth seems to have come back in Africa, the issue remains to know whether the new African growth is sustainable. This paper examines to what extent African growth is vulnerable to exogeneous shocks and what are the implications for international development finance. First it evidences the persistent vulnerability of African economies with regard to the U.N. Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI), using a first retrospective series of that index. Second, relying on several recent works, it underlinesthat structural vulnerability matters, in particular in Africa. Finally it considers how international development finance can be used to face the vulnerability of African economies, suggesting to use structural vulnerability as one of the aid allocation criteria and to adapt aid modalities so that it can effectively serve as an insurance. |
| Keywords: | cerdi |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00557161&r=afr |
| By: | Bocquier, Philippe; Nordman, Christophe J.; Vescovo, Aude |
| Abstract: | This article develops indicators of vulnerability in employment in seven economic capitals of West Africa and studies their links with individual incomes. Quantitative, distributional and qualitative analyses show that vulnerability compensating mechanism is mainly seen in the informal sector, in the upper tail of the earnings distribution and particularly in the circumstance of visible underemployment. Employment vulnerability is not compensated for the poorest workers in the private sector. Long “job queues” and weak institutional protection of workers may have reduced bargaining power in the formal sector. |
| Keywords: | Afrique de l'Ouest; West Africa; secteur informel; revenus; différentiels compensatoires; conditions de travail; vulnérabilité; vulnerability; working conditions; compensating differentials; earnings; informal sector; |
| JEL: | O12 J31 J24 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/4294&r=afr |
| By: | Patrick Guillaumont (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Catherine Korachais (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | The recent literature on the determinants of poverty changes across countries has been focused on the change of average level of income per capita and its distribution, generally measured by a Gini coefficient. While the instability of income is more and more considered as an explaining factor of the average rate of income, it is not generally considered as a factor of higher poverty for a given level of income. However it can be expected that income volatility is a factor of poverty, due to the existence of poverty traps. In this paper we argue that income instability may result in higher poverty for a given level of income. Considering that in Africa poverty during the last two decades has been increasing whereas it was decreasing in other developing countries, and that income instability is higher in Africa than it is elsewhere, it is relevant to examine whether this higher instability has been a factor of higher poverty beyond the fact that it lowers growth. In order to answer to this question, the paper first summarizes the evolution of poverty from available statistical data, and then introduces income instability in an appropriate model of a poverty change. The econometric results corresponding to this model show that income instability may have, besides income growth and Gini coefficient change, an additional impact on poverty change. Even if it is low, since income instability is higher among Sub Saharan African countries, this impact can explain a part of their larger poverty incidence. |
| Keywords: | cerdi |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00557174&r=afr |
| By: | Lavallée, Emmanuelle; Razafindrakoto, Mireille; Roubaud, François |
| Abstract: | Quels sont les individus les plus enclins à recourir à la corruption ? A qui demande-t-on des pots-devin ? Qui en payent ? Cet article explore ces questions à partir d’un riche corpus d’enquêtes-ménages comparables réalisées dans continent où la corruption sévit avec beaucoup d’acuité : les enquêtes Afrobaromètre. Afin de répondre à ces questions, il s’interroge également sur les caractéristiques des utilisateurs des services publics en Afrique. Notre article apporte des résultats nouveaux tant sur la propension à corrompre et l’exposition à la corruption que sur les déterminants de l’utilisation des services publics. Nos estimations montrent notamment que les facteurs d’appartenance ethnique, traditionnellement mis en avant en Afrique, ne jouent pas un rôle aussi clair sur la corruption que ne le suggère la littérature. |
| Abstract: | Who are the most prone to pay bribes? Who are angled for bribes? Who pay? This article explores these issues in sub-Saharan Africa, an area of the world where corruption is widespread. This paper empirical basis is a rich collection of comparable data provided by the Afrobarometer surveys conducted in 18 sub-Saharan African countries. So as to answer these questions properly, this paper also analyses the characteristics of users of governmental services in Africa. Our study yields new results about the exposure to corruption and the use of public services as well. Our findings notably show that ethnic and religious belongings, which are traditionally put forward in the literature about corruption in this continent, do not have a so clear effect on corruption. |
| Keywords: | Corruption; Afrique; Services publics; |
| JEL: | D73 H4 H31 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/223&r=afr |
| By: | Raballand, Gael; Thornton, Rebecca; Yang, Dean; Goldberg, Jessica; Keleher, Niall; Muller, Annika |
| Abstract: | This paper draws lessons from an original randomized experiment in Malawi. In order to understand why roads in relatively good condition in rural areas may not be used by buses, a minibus service was subsidized over a six-month period over a distance of 20 kilometers to serve five villages. Using randomly allocated prices for use of the bus, this experiment demonstrates that at very low prices, bus usage is high. Bus usage decreases rapidly with increased prices. However, based on the results on take-up and minibus provider surveys, the experiment demonstrates that at any price, low (with high usage) or high (with low usage), a bus service provider never breaks even on this road. This can contribute to explain why walking or cycling is so widespread on most rural roads in Sub-Saharan Africa. In terms of policy implications, this experiment explains that motorized services need to be subsidized; otherwise a road in good condition will most probably not lead to provision of service at an affordable price for the local population. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Transport in Urban Areas,Urban Transport,Markets and Market Access,Rural Roads&Transport |
| Date: | 2011–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5535&r=afr |
| By: | Cyprien Awono (GREDI, Département d'économique, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Catherine Laroche Dupraz (Agrocampus Ouest, Rennes, France); Dominique Vermersch (Agrocampus Ouest, Rennes, France) |
| Abstract: | Consumer concerns in food purchasing contain a number of attributes, including the nutritional and sanitary values, conditions of breeding and selling, and other social issues. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an analytical and an empirical approaches to estimating the marginal willingness to pay (WTP) for chicken attributes in Cameroon using data from an investigation on the field. First we constructed a theoretical model of implicit price. Secondly, we assumed that WTP for chicken attributes can be derived from estimate hedonic function, there by expressing the prices consumers are willing to pay as function of implicit price of each chicken attributes. Two models are proposed and discussed. Our findings indicate that in spite of the possibility of bargaining the price of the local flesh chicken, consumer’s substituted it by imported frozen cut chicken which main attributes are low cost, sold in separated parts and available in all urban markets. |
| Keywords: | West Africa, attributes, poultry, marginal willingness to pay, implicit price |
| JEL: | C5 D12 Q18 |
| Date: | 2011–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:11-01&r=afr |
| By: | Lisa Chauvet (DIAL - Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme - IRD); Patrick Guillaumont (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | In two previous papers we have argued that aid is likely to mitigate the negative effects of external shocks on economic growth (i.e. that aid is more effective in countries which are more vulnerable to external shocks). Recently an important debate has emerged about the possible negative effects of aid volatility itself. However, the cushioning effect of aid may involve some volatility in aid flows, hence not necessarily negative for growth. In this paper we examine to what extent the time profile of aid disbursements may contribute to an increase or a decrease of aid effectiveness in Africa. We first show that aid, even if volatile, is not clearly as pro-cyclical as often argued, and that, even if pro-cyclical, is not necessarily destabilizing. We measure aid volatility by two methods and assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to exports, thus departing from previous literature, which usually assess pro-cyclicality of aid with respect to national income or fiscal receipts. The stabilizing/destabilizing nature of aid is measured by the difference in the volatility of aid and the volatility of the a aid plus exports. We then evidence through growth regressions that the higher effectiveness of aid in vulnerable countries is to a large extent due to a stabilizing effect. Finally we consider the implications of this effect for income volatility. |
| Keywords: | cerdi |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00557163&r=afr |
| By: | Samuel Guerineau (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | Developing countries are being urged to extent public spending to reach The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Following a series of debt cancellations, the public debt of many developing countries has reached low levels, so that external borrowing is a plausible option. However, developing countries can not exclusively rely on external financing. Consequently, is an increase in the domestic debt possible and desirable? This paper investigates this issue in the case of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), of which several countries have benefited from important debt cancellations. We show that an increase in the domestic debt is feasible for some of the WAEMU countries since 1) there exist excess bank liquidity and foreign reserves which involve a low cost for public finance, 2) the main macroeconomic risks (debt distress, crowding out of private investment and real exchange rate appreciation) can be averted and 3) absorptive capacity may be enlarged by giving larger role to regional institutions or local communities. |
| Keywords: | cerdi |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00557005&r=afr |
| By: | Kangni Kpodar (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie les effets d'une augmentation des prix des produits pétroliers sur la distribution des revenus au Mali en utilisant une analyse micro-macro basée sur la combinaison de données d'enquête-ménages et d'une matrice input-output. Les résultats montrent que, parmi les produits pétroliers consommés par les ménages, l'accroissement du prix du pétrole lampant affecte négativement le revenu des ménages pauvres plus que l'accroissement du prix de l'essence et du gasoil. Globalement, l'impact de la hausse du prix des produits pétroliers suit une relation en U inversé avec le niveau de dépense par tête, les ménages des classes moyennes étant moins affectés que les ménages pauvres et les ménages riches. Par ailleurs, quel que soit le produit pétrolier considéré, les prix subventionnés à la pompe bénéficient plus aux ménages à haut revenu qu'aux ménages à faible revenu. Ceci suggère que les subventions implicites ou explicites aux prix domestiques des produits pétroliers sont des mécanismes peu efficaces, comparés à des subventions ciblées, pour protéger les ménages pauvres. Une réforme du système de fixation des prix domestiques est par conséquent souhaitable afin de réorienter l'affectation des ressources budgétaires aux objectifs de réduction de la pauvreté. |
| Keywords: | analyse input-output;subventions;petrole;distribution des revenus;analyse de bien-être |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00557133&r=afr |
| By: | Robilliard, Anne-Sophie; Rakotomanana, Faly; Nordman, Christophe J. |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous analysons les différences de genre en matière de performances sur le marché du travail de Madagascar à l’aide d’enquêtes ménages menées au niveau national en 2001 et en 2005. Grâce à ces deux points dans le temps, nous examinons la dynamique des déterminants de l’allocation sectorielle et de l’écart de gains entre sexes. Nos résultats montrent que l’écart salarial moyen entre sexes est relativement faible et stable entre ces deux périodes. L’écart salarial est le plus faible dans le secteur public et le plus élevé dans le secteur informel. Pour les travailleurs indépendants hors- agriculture, l’écart de gains est beaucoup plus élevé et a décliné entre 2001 et 2005, une période de crise économique. A l’aide de décompositions de ces écarts, nous montrons que les différences de localisation sectorielle selon les sexes expliquent une grande part de l’écart de gains pour les deux années. L’estimation de fonctions de gains augmentées de caractéristiques des micro-entreprises des travailleurs indépendants suggère par ailleurs que l’écart de genre dans ce secteur s’explique en grande partie par une répartition inégale entre sexes des attributs des micro-entreprises, en particulier du capital physique. Ce résultat met en évidence une source potentielle de discrimination souvent ignorée dans la littérature, à savoir l’accès au capital physique par les femmes. |
| Abstract: | n this study, we address the issue of gender differences in labour market performances for Madagascar using data from two national household surveys carried out in 2001 and 2005. The data collected in these surveys allow us to measure the gender pay gap at two points in time, and to analyze the determinants of occupational choices across sectors of employment as well as of wages and earnings. Our results show that the average gender wage gap is relatively small and stable over time. Across wage employment sectors, the gender gap appears to be the lowest in the public sector and the highest in the informal sector. In non-farm self-employment, however, the gender earnings gap is much higher and declined between 2001 and 2005. Using full decomposition techniques, we provide evidence that gender specific sectoral location explains a significant share of the gender wage gap in both years. Augmented earnings equations estimates carried out for the non-farm self-employment sector suggest that the gap in this sector is driven by the very unequal distribution of micro-firm attributes between men and women. This results points to a potential source of earnings differential often ignored in the gender gap literature which is access to physical capital by women. |
| Keywords: | écart de genre; participation au marché du travail; allocation sectorielle; équations de gains; écart salarial de genre; gender wage gap; Madagascar; labour force participation; sectoral allocation; earnings equations; |
| JEL: | J31 J24 O12 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:dauphi:urn:hdl:123456789/4304&r=afr |
| By: | François Joseph Cabral (Faculté des sciences économiques et de gestion (FASEG), Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar (UCAD); Consortium pour la Recherche Economique et Sociale (CRES); Groupe de recherche sur le développement international (GREDI), Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | L’objectif attendu du Programme détaillé de développement de l’agriculture africaine (PDDAA) impulsé dans le cadre du NEPAD est d’accroître le rythme de la croissance agricole afin de concourir à le réduction de moitié de la pauvreté conformément au premier objectif du millénaire pour le développement (OMD) en 2015. Pour un pays moins avancé comme la Guinée Bissau dont près de la moitié du Pib provient du secteur agricole, ce programme sera crucial dans la quête des OMD. Dans cet article, nous développons un modèle d’équilibre général calculable dynamique afin de simuler l’implémentation du PDDAA dans le cas de l’économie bissau-guinéenne et en évaluons l’impact sur la pauvreté et, en conséquence, sur la poursuite des objectifs définis par les OMD. Les résultats obtenus font ressortir que la Guinée Bissau ne pourrait pas réaliser le premier OMD en 2015 même sous l’hypothèse d’une implémentation du programme PDDA. Seule une mise en œuvre soutenue du programme PDDA sur un horizon temporel plus long et une politique volontariste de relèvement de la productivité agricole permettrait aux décideurs de mener l’économie vers un chemin de croissance apte à conduire à la réduction de moitié de la pauvreté en 2020. |
| Date: | 2011–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:11-03&r=afr |
| By: | Martine Audibert (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Jean-François Brun (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Jacky Mathonnat (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); M.-C. Henry (CREC - CREC - CREC) |
| Abstract: | The sectors of coffee and cocoa represented in Côte d'Ivoire, before the political crisis, approximately 15% of the GDP and 40% of exports. The zones of production of these two cultures are in the forest area which is infected with malaria. The culture of these products is less constraining than that of the food crops such as rice or yam (one does not need to replant each year for example). However, the maintenance of the ground and of the trees and pest management contribute to obtain high yields. In addition, these products allow the producers to obtain monetary income. However, output is not the sole determinant of the level of income: precocity and speed of gathering, by permitting early sale, contribute to get higher income. In addition, food crops such as rice growing, are produced in the area. The objective of this paper is twofold, first, to evaluate the role of malaria on coffee and cocoa productions, second, to assess if the behaviour of rural households facing a liberalisation of the coffee and cocoa chains has an impact on their income. Three functions are thus estimated: production of coffee, production of cocoa and income. Data are taken from a survey carried out on 800 households (21 villages) in 1999 in the forest area of Danané. The main results are the absence of malaria impact on productions and the dominance of individual over collective sale strategies. |
| Keywords: | cocoa;coffee;lowland rice;malaria;sharecropping;Côte d'Ivoire |
| Date: | 2011–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00557214&r=afr |
| By: | Olivier Degomme (University of Ghent) |
| Abstract: | In recent years there has been considerable debate over how best to formulate reliable estimates of conflict mortality rates. However, in formulating humanitarian policy to respond to violent conflicts it is important to go beyond crude mortality rates to look at the causes and timings of deaths. This Policy Briefing presents the results of a MICROCON study on Darfur which disaggregates causes of death, and discusses the implications for humanitarian policy. The results of the study demonstrate the importance of improving sanitation and health services in displacement camps. It also provides some evidence of the human impact of shortfalls in humanitarian funding, and highlights the vital importance of consistent and adequate financial support for relief efforts. |
| Keywords: | violent conflict; Darfur; Sudan; humanitarian aid; population displacement |
| JEL: | D74 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcn:polbrf:7&r=afr |
| By: | Cyprien Awono (GREDI, Département d'économique, Faculte d'administration, Université de Sherbrooke); Michel Havard (Centre de Coopération internationale en recherche agricole pour le développement, UMR Innovation, Montpellier, France) |
| Abstract: | Les émeutes de la faim de février 2008 ont révélé la fragilité de la sécurité alimentaire du Cameroun. Selon les associations de défense des consommateurs, ceci serait lié aux importations massives de denrées de première nécessité, qui aurait pour conséquence une dégradation constante du taux de couverture des besoins alimentaires et une dépendance accrue à l’égard de l’extérieur. L’objectif de cet article, en s’appuyant sur les données de l’Institut camerounais de la statistique et de FAOSTAT depuis l’indépendance, est de montrer que cette dégradation n’est pas confirmée par les chiffres sur les importations alimentaires, dès lors qu’on prend en compte la mondialisation des échanges agricoles. Ensuite, cet article discute le rôle des importations comme instrument de la politique alimentaire du Cameroun, et pose la question d’une politique stratégique de valorisation et de promotion des produits alimentaires locaux. |
| Keywords: | Importations, alimentation, politique alimentaire, sécurité alimentaire, dépendance alimentaire, Cameroun |
| Date: | 2011–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:11-02&r=afr |
| By: | Catherine Araujo Bonjean (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS : UMR6587 - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Magali Aubert (MOISE - INRA - INRA); Johny Egg (MOISE - INRA - INRA) |
| Abstract: | L'objectif de ce papier est de déterminer les zones d'intégration des marchés du mil au sein du sous espace régional africain constitué par le Niger, le Mali et le Burkina Faso en croisant différents indicateurs construits à partir des prix de marchés. Dans un premier temps une analyse de la persistance des chocs de prix est conduite à partir de modèles univariés sur les écarts de prix entre deux marchés. Dans un deuxième temps, les liens entre les différents marchés sont examinés à partir des tests de causalité de Granger et des fonctions de réponses impulsionnelles dérivées de modèles VAR multivariés. Les fonctions impulsionnelles, identifiées à partir de la méthodologie développée par Pesaran et Shin (1998) et Koop et al. (1996), permettent de prendre en compte le fait que des chocs non anticipés peuvent perturber simultanément tous les marchés. Les résultats montrent une bonne intégration des marchés au sein des espaces nationaux mais une mauvaise intégration des marchés entre pays voisins. Bien que les pays étudiés appartiennent à une même union monétaire et une même union douanière, l'analyse révèle la persistance d'un « effet frontière » traduisant la présence de couts de transaction liés au commerce transfrontalier. |
| Keywords: | effet frontière;integration des marches;prix céréaliers;afrique;VAR |
| Date: | 2011–01–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00556667&r=afr |