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on Africa |
| By: | Margaret Chitiga (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Bernard Decaluwe (Department of Economics, Laval University, Quebec, Canada); Ramos Mabugu (Financial and Fiscal Commission); Helene Maisonnave (Financial and Fiscal Commission); Veronique Robichaud (Department of Economics, Laval University, Quebec, Canada); Debra Shepherd (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Servaas van der Berg (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University); Dieter von Fintel (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | This paper reports on a study to provide insights into the magnitude of the shocks associated with the recent global economic crisis in macroeconomic terms in South Africa, the country’s capacity to withstand or cushion these shocks, and the extent of fragility in terms of poverty levels and child wellbeing. The analysis combines macro-economic and micro-economic tools to assess the extent of the crisis’ impact on the country. The study finds that the poverty headcount ratio increases little in the moderate crisis scenario, but substantially under the severe scenario. However, under both scenarios there is a relatively successful return to close to the business as usual trend. It is important to note though that under both scenarios, more poverty sensitive measures (the poverty gap ratio and the poverty severity ratio) decline more, and remain in negative territory longer, showing that the major impact of the crisis is on the poorest, and that this impact is most difficult to overcome. |
| Keywords: | ECONOMIC CRISIS, COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, FORECASTING AND SIMULATION, ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEMS, CHILD POVERTY MEASUREMENT, SOUTH AFRICA |
| JEL: | C31 C68 D31 E37 I32 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201015&r=afr |
| By: | Bertrand BLANCHETON (GREThA UMR CNRS 5113); Lambert OPARA-OPIMBA (Université de Bordeaux) |
| Abstract: | This input, essentially empirical by nature, analyses the FDI determinants in Africa independently from the already clearly identified attraction of natural resources. Do powers of anticipation as to the general prospects for these economies influence incoming flows of capital? What role is played by socio-political instability connected to the social consequences caused by conflicts? Are the processes of regionalization enhancing the appeal of countries that are going down that path? From a panel of 28 African countries, the results from estimations obtained using the Hausman-Taylor method of instrumental variables show that the impact of projections on any ongoing decision to invest in the continent is not statistically significant. Our results also show that, although negative, the direct correlation between social risk, a proxy of socio-political instability, and flows of foreign investment is not systematically significant.. However, the fact remains that these instabilities undermine national competencies (human capital) and compound certain ills such as HIV/Aids, whose impact on foreign investment increases along a negative curve in the presence of social risk. However, the simultaneous introduction of regionalization processes into our estimations tends to lower the adverse effects of instability on certain explicative FDI variables. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), African economies, projections/anticipations, risk and socio-political instability, regional integration |
| JEL: | C33 F15 F2 O16 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grt:wpegrt:2010-14&r=afr |
| By: | Fenske, James |
| Abstract: | Nigeria's Benin region was a major rubber producer in 1960. In 1921, however, the government abandoned the industry as a failure. I explain why rubber did not take hold before 1921. British conquest was motivated in part by the region's wild rubber resources. The government was unable to protect Benin's rubber forests from over-exploitation. Expatriate firms were reticent to invest in plantations, and private African plantations remained small. The colonial government promoted the development of ``communal'' plantations, but these suffered from labor scarcity, a weak state, limited information, and global competition. |
| Keywords: | Nigeria; Benin; rubber; development |
| JEL: | N57 O13 |
| Date: | 2010–06–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23415&r=afr |
| By: | Croser, Johanna; Anderson, Kym |
| Abstract: | For decades, agricultural price and trade policies in Sub-Saharan Africa have hampered farmers’ contributions to economic growth and poverty reduction. Although there has been much policy reform over the past two decades, the injections of agricultural development funding, together with ongoing regional and global trade negotiations, have brought distortionary policies under the spotlight once again. A key question asked of those policies is: How much are they still reducing national economic welfare and trade? Economy-wide models are able to address that question, but they are not available for many poor countries. Even where they are, typically they apply to just one particular previous year and so are unable to provide trends in effects over time. This paper provides a partial-equilibrium alternative to economy-wide modeling, by drawing on a modification of so-called trade restrictiveness indexes to provide theoretically precise indicators of the trade and welfare effects of agricultural policy distortions to producer and consumer prices over the past half-century. The authors generate time series of country level indexes, as well as Africa-wide aggregates. They also provide annual commodity market indexes for the region, and a sense of the relative importance of the key policy instruments used. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Emerging Markets,Trade Policy,Free Trade |
| Date: | 2010–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5344&r=afr |
| By: | Amartya Sen |
| Abstract: | There is a great deal that can be learnt from the respective successes andsuccesses of Africa and India in different fields and this is what is presented in this paper.[Working Paper 19] |
| Keywords: | respective, successes, successes, Africa, India |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2609&r=afr |
| By: | Tony Addison; George Mavrotas; Mark McGillivray |
| Abstract: | The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) have lofty expectations regarding the impact of official development aid. Are these expectations valid? This paper surveys the literature on aid and growth. It finds that practically all aid studies since the late 1990s conclude that aid increases economic growth. By implication, therefore, it can be inferred that poverty would be higher in the absence of aid. As such the above- mentioned expectations are, to a certain extent, valid. The paper then reviews volumes of and trends in official development assistance since 1960, highlighting flows to Sub-Saharan Africa. A downturn in volumes in the 1990s is demonstrated. It asserts that poverty is higher and the MDGs are hard to achieve because of this downturn. It also asserts that while aid will be important, other sources of external finance are required to achieve the MDGs. The paper concludes by examining recent proposals regarding new sources of such finance. [Research Paper No. 2005/09] |
| Keywords: | official development assistance, debt relief, growth, poverty, Millennium Development Goals, Sub-Saharan Africa, innovative sources of finance |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2592&r=afr |
| By: | Christoph Kurowski; Anne Mills |
| Abstract: | This study was carried out under the auspices of the LSHTM Health Economics and Financing Program, which, at the time of the work, received a research programme grant from DFID. The findings, conclusions and interpretations expressed in this report, however, are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of DFID or the WB, its Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The version of the QTP model presented here benefited from the experiences gathered in two case studies carried out in Tanzania and Chad. Kaspar Wyss and N’Diekhor Yemadji led the case study in Chad and Salim Abdulla participated in the Tanzania team.[HEFP working paper 01/06, LSHTM, 2006] |
| Keywords: | LSHTM, Health Economics and Financing Program, DFID, interpretations, WB, Executive Directors, Kaspar Wyss, N’Diekhor Yemadji, Tanzania, Chad, Salim Abdulla |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2608&r=afr |
| By: | Orkodashvili, Mariam |
| Abstract: | The aim of the paper is to discuss the system of double-shift schooling and assess it from economic, social and educational angles referring to different cases from Sub-Saharan African countries. The paper makes an attempt to prove that despite certain challenges that it faces, the system of double-shift schooling is the best solution for poor countries to achieve the millennium goal of Education for All with limited resources, and an optimum strategy for rich countries to use resources more efficiently. |
| Keywords: | cost-benfit analysis; investment in school infrastructure; salaries; enrrollment; capital and recurrent costs; social equity; student scores; improved efficiency; extra-curricualr activities; universal education. |
| JEL: | A13 N30 I21 I28 A21 H52 I22 |
| Date: | 2009–09–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23519&r=afr |
| By: | Mustapha Ibn Boamah; Robert Ackrill; Juan Carlos Cuestas |
| Abstract: | The central bank of Ghana officially adopted an explicit inflating targeting monetary policy in May 2007 following its operational independence in March 2002. This paper explores monetary policy rules and conduct in Ghana. The paper uses time series estimations of Taylor-type reactions functions to characterise monetary policy conduct. The long-run interest rate response to inflation, output gap, and other inflation precursors from estimated reaction functions is compared with Taylor’s reference values. We conclude monetary policy was largely ineffective in controlling inflation. The paper suggests possible reasons for the non effectiveness of monetary policy and offers policy recommendations for long-term inflation control. |
| Keywords: | Central bank, Ghana, Inflation targeting, Monetary Policy |
| JEL: | E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbs:wpaper:2010/7&r=afr |
| By: | Baafi Antwi, Joseph |
| Abstract: | Economic growth around the world has not been equal for a long time. Some economics grow faster while others grow slower. But economists have predicted that the slower growing economics will eventually converge with the faster growing economy as some point in the future. This is known as the convergence hypothesis. In this study, we test this hypothesis for Ghana and the Western Europeans countries with UK been a proxy for these countries, using time series data to determine whether or not it holds. We determine how fast or slow this convergence process is by using the returns to scale concept on Ghana’s economy and latter account for factor that determines economic growth in sectors. The study supported the null hypothesis of convergence i.e. Ghana is catching up with the Western European countries. The study also shown that Ghana growth accounting exhibit decreasing returns meaning convergence is relatively slow and also signifies that Ghana is not on a balanced growth path (this refers to the simultaneous, coordinated expansion of several sectors of the economy). The study showed a negative relationship between GDP and labour both in the long run and short run relationship. Again the study showed a positive relationship between GDP and capital, Agric and Industrial sector. Lastly, the study showed a negative relationship between GDP and AID and Service in the long run and positive relationship in the short run. |
| Keywords: | Convergence; Economic Growth; Time series |
| JEL: | C32 O41 O47 O4 |
| Date: | 2010–05–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23455&r=afr |
| By: | Divya Rajaraman; S Jody Heymann |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the distribution of HIV testing in Botswana in 2002 and 2004. Botswana is a country with a high prevalence of HIV in the general population and HIV testing is considered to be a critical component of prevention and care efforts. The study found that people who had a higher level of education, had become parents since the establishment of the Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission of HIV (PMTCT) programme, and who had provided care for someone they suspected was HIV positive/ had known someone who was HIV positive were more likely to have taken an HIV test. In a population-based sample, women were more likely to have taken an HIV test. The findings indicate the effectiveness of a routine health intervention such as PMTCT in increasing knowledge of HIV status. They also provide empirical evidence of a socio-economic differential in HIV testing, underscoring the need to design and implement health care programmes in such a way as to reduce the socio-economic gap in health protective behaviour and health outcomes.[HEFP Working Paper 02/07, LSHTM, 2007] |
| Keywords: | HIV testing, Botswana, VCT, PMTCT, SES, Poverty |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:2606&r=afr |
| By: | Fabio Veras Soares (International Poverty Centre); Guilherme Issamu Hirata (International Poverty Centre); Rafael Perez Ribas (International Poverty Centre) |
| Abstract: | The Food Subsidy Programme (Programa Subsidio de Alimentos, PSA) is the main basic social protection programme of the government of Mozambique in terms of coverage. It was established in 1990 to help the destitute elderly (women above 55 and men above 60), people living with a disability, the chronically sick and their dependants by providing a monthly cash transfer. The programme falls under the mandate of the Ministry for Women and Social Action (MMAS), while implementation is the responsibility of the National Institute for Social Action (INAS), the Ministry?s executing agency. By the end of 2008, the PSA covered 143,455 households with a total of 287,454 beneficiaries. The main direct beneficiaries were the elderly (93 per cent), followed by people living with disabilities (6 per cent) and the chronically ill (1 per cent). The general eligibility criteria are: age, residency for more than six months in the selected area, per capita earnings less than the minimum benefit on the PSA scale, and/or recognised by medical declaration to be chronically ill or living with a disability. Potential beneficiaries are selected by a local intermediary (known as a Permanente) chosen by the community and appointed by INAS, after which the application undergoes an approval process within the INAS delegation. Although the PSA is a national programme, it does not reach the entire eligible population and its coverage is unequally distributed across districts. This is the result of the absence of an expansion strategy based on poverty incidence and population density. Expansion of the PSA was initially restricted to urban areas in order to mitigate the effects of the post-war structural adjustment programme on the urban population (Low et al., 1999). Currently, expansion to remote rural areas is a programme priority. The programme?s administrative cost is considered high relative to the amount transferred to the beneficiaries (Ellis, 2007). Though the programme is the largest in terms of the number of beneficiaries, its coverage is low relative to the potential universe of beneficiaries. Expansion of the programme tends to diminish the administrative costs in relative terms. In 2008, the PSA underwent two important reforms. First, the subsidy scale increased. The subsidy amount for the first (direct) beneficiaries rose from 70 to 100 meticais (US$2.5 to US$3.6), and the additional benefit for dependants increased from 10 to 50 meticais (US$0.36 to US$1.80) per dependant up to four. The second reform was the greater focus on the inclusion of eligible dependants as indirect beneficiaries in the payment scheme, and the monitoring and evaluation system. Though it is a relatively old programme, it has never been evaluated before. An opportunity to conduct an evaluation has arisen in the context of the reforms. This Policy Research Brief seeks to improve knowledge of the PSA by presenting the first part of the PSA impact evaluation?that is, the summary of the baseline report. |
| Keywords: | The Programa Subsidio de Alimentos in Mozambique: Baseline Evaluation |
| Date: | 2010–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:pbrief:14&r=afr |