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on Africa |
| By: | Augustin Kwasi Fosu and Germano Mwabu (World Institute for Development Economics Research, United Nations University; University of Nairobi, Kenya) |
| Abstract: | Human development (HD), a process designed to enhance human lives directly, is contrasted with economic development, which entails the expansion of material things intended to fulfill human needs. Human development empowers people to participate in the improvement of their own well-being. The paper looks at the record of HD in Africa over the period 1970-2005, using half-decadal data derived from United Nations sources and national statistical bureaus. It is found that over the period analyzed, the human development index improved in all African countries except in Zambia, where it declined, due to unfavorable terms of trade and to persistent health and governance problems, among challenges. Nonetheless, despite this progress, African countries continue to lag behind other regions of the world in HD. There has been little advance on the economic development front, where growth plummeted in most African countries, impoverishing nearly 50 per cent of the population. Towards the end of the 1990s, however, African economies began to recover due mainly to reforms in governance and distributive systems, and in mechanisms to protect people against downside risks, including disease pandemics, political instabilities, droughts and adverse terms of trade. The paper argues for a continuation of reforms in order to further improve economic and human development outcomes on the continent. |
| Keywords: | Human development, poverty, political and economic governance, Africa |
| JEL: | I30 I0 O10 F13 Y1 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdr:papers:hdrp-2010-08&r=afr |
| By: | Bichaka Fayissa; Paulos Gutema |
| Abstract: | Conventional growth theories in the literature explain the poor economic performance of African economies by stressing the inadequacy of savings, human capital, and poor institutional quality. However, the key question is how to enhance savings for the accumulation of both physical and human capital in order to spur growth. A common thread that runs through the existing models is that the dependency ratio, not only remains constant over time, but has no long-run negative impact on economic growth. By relaxing this rigid assumption, this paper constructs a growth estimating equation which accommodates this demographic factor. The analytic results from the modified model suggest that economies with high dependency ratio face their stable equilibrium at lower levels of their income per capita. Moreover, econometric results from analysis of panel data drawn from Sub-Saharan Africa economies suggest that the growth puzzle can be well explained in terms of the demographic factors, especially the level and dynamics of dependency ratio of the region. |
| Keywords: | Sub-Saharan Africa, growth model, dependency ratio, steady state, panel data, fixed-effects model, random-effects model |
| JEL: | R11 N3 F43 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mts:wpaper:201010&r=afr |
| By: | Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Belgi Turan |
| Abstract: | Young (2005) argues that HIV related population declines reinforced by the fertility response to the epidemic will lead to higher capital-labor ratios and to higher per capita incomes in the affected countries of Africa. Using household level data on fertility from South Africa and relying on between cohort variation in country level HIV infection, he estimates a large negative effect of HIV prevalence on fertility. However, the studies that utilize the recent rounds of Demographic Health Surveys, where fertility outcomes are linked to HIV status based on testing, find no effect of the disease on the fertility behavior. This paper tries to bridge this gap by revisiting Young's findings. Young (2005) includes data before 1990, when no data are available on HIV prevalence rates. He assigns all the fertility observations before 1990 with HIV prevalence rates of zero, and this appears to drive the significant negative effect found in his study. When one restricts the sample to the period 1990-1998, where actual HIV data are available, the effect of HIV prevalence on fertility turns out to be positive for South Africa. Simulating Young's model utilizing these new estimates shows that the future generations of South Africa are worse off. |
| JEL: | I12 J11 J13 O11 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16115&r=afr |
| By: | Emilie CALDEIRA; Grégoire ROTA-GRAZIOSI (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International); Martial FOUCAULT |
| Abstract: | Without denying particular dimensions of the decentralisation in Sub-Saharan countries, this paper applies standard reasoning from the fiscal federalism literature to a developing country and tests the existence of strategic interactions among local Beninese governments, called 'communes'. We first propose a two-jurisdiction model of public expenditure interactions, considering a constrained Nash equilibrium to capture the extreme poverty of some communes. We show that spillovers among jurisdictions involve strategic behaviours of local officials who have sufficient levels of fiscal resources. Second, by estimating a spatial lag model, our analysis provides evidence for the presence of strategic interactions in Benin, contingent on 'communes fiscal autonomy. Such interactions arise among communes which are geographically or ethnically close. We also highlight both an opportunistic behaviour of local governments before local elections and an effect of partisan affiliations. This African democracy appears to be as concerned as developed democracies with strategic fiscal interactions. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal interactions, benin, decentralisation, local government, dynamic panel data |
| JEL: | H7 H2 D72 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1176&r=afr |
| By: | Potgieter, Petrus H. |
| Abstract: | In this paper we examine the nexus of water an energy scarcity in South Africa. The fresh water resources of the country are close to exhaustion (Business Day, 2009; Turton, 2008), yet safe drinking water is not yet universally available to all in the country – in spite of a government policy to provide water for basic needs, taken to be 25ℓ per person per day (Coovadia, Jewkes, Barron, Sanders, & McIntyre, 2009). A growing economy and a population now close to 50 million have also put considerable strain on the electricity supply and distribution system, including wide-spread residential power outages in the main economic centers and, since January 2008, mandatory cuts for industrial users (Patel, 2008). The paper provides an overview of the current system in South Africa for supplying and managing water and electricity – for residential, industrial and for agricultural use – with a special emphasis on the energy requirements for delivering water as well as the water required in generating electric power. Finally we consider the example of Australia, another country with severe water shortages and one with a comparable demand for electricity, and attempt to draw lessons for South Africa from Australia’s more market-driven approach to energy and water. |
| Keywords: | Water; energy; South Africa |
| JEL: | Q32 N77 O13 Q58 |
| Date: | 2010–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23360&r=afr |
| By: | John Cockburn; Luca Tiberti; Ismaël Fofana; Theodore Antwi-Asare; Edgar A. Cooke; Daniel K. Twerefou; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre; UNICEF West and Central Africa Regional Office (WCARO) |
| Abstract: | Like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Ghana is experiencing the impact of the global crisis and the uncertain economic outlook. Indeed, as Ghana’s economy is among the most open in Africa, it is expected that the country has been and will continue to be severely affected by the crisis, although strong export prices of its main exports (gold and cocoa) may at least partially counteract the effects associated with the crisis. The main goal of this paper is to understand the potential impacts of the 2008/9 global crisis on different dimensions of child poverty (monetary, hunger, school participation, child labour and access to health services) in Ghana and to support the policy-maker in designing the most appropriate policy response to counteract the negative effects of the crisis. As timely data are not available, a combined macro-micro economic model to predict the impact of the global crisis on children was developed. Simulations suggest that the financial crisis would increase monetary poverty and hunger across all regions of Ghana, eroding many of the gains made over the past few years. Indeed, in comparison with the year preceding the crisis, instead of a reduction of four percentage points in child monetary poverty in 2011 predicted in the absence of crisis, the simulations indicate a 6.6 percentage point increase, with a continuous increasing pattern over the period of study. The global crisis is also predicted to severely deepen hunger among children, which is simulated to increase up to 6.6 percentage points in 2011 beginning with a sharp increase already in 2009. For both monetary poverty and hunger, the impact of the crisis differs across all regions, with the Eastern, Volta and Greater Accra regions predicted to be the most affected. Children’s participation in schooling and labour, as well as their access to health services, are forecast to be much less affected by the crisis, although it is found to reverse predicted increases in enrolment and health access (with substitution toward more modern types of health services) and forecasted reductions in child labour. Finally, alternative policy options have been simulated: a cash transfer programme targeted to poor children is found to be generally more effective in protecting children than food subsidies. Indeed, with a total budget equivalent to 1% of 2008 GDP, a cash transfer - equivalent to an individual annual amount of 19.8 Cedis - would cut the predicted increase in monetary poverty by over two percentage points in 2011. Although Ghana might be in a position to rapidly implement a cash transfer programme building on the existing Livelihood Empowerment against Poverty (LEAP) programme, other interventions (or mix of policies) might be more cost-effective in the short run. A combination of a universal or regionally targeted cash transfer programmes for children aged 0 to 5 years old, together with a school-feeding programme in poorer regions, might represent an effective way to intervene quickly to improve child well-being. |
| Keywords: | child education; child health; child labour; child poverty; econometric models; economic crisis; hunger; social protection; |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa601&r=afr |
| By: | John Cockburn; Luca Tiberti; Ismaël Fofana |
| Abstract: | The current global financial and economic crisis, which exacerbates the impacts of the energy and food crises that immediately preceded it, has spread to the developing countries endangering recent gains in terms of economic growth and poverty reduction. The effects of the crisis are likely to vary substantially between countries and between individuals within the same country. Children are among the most vulnerable population, particularly in a period of crisis. Especially in least developed countries, where social safety nets programs are missing or poorly performing and public fiscal space is extremely limited, households with few economic opportunities are at a higher risk of falling into (monetary) poverty, suffering from hunger, removing children from school and into work, and losing access to health services. This study simulates the impacts of the global economic crisis and alternative policy responses on different dimensions of child welfare in Western and Central Africa (WCA) over the period 2009-2011. It is based on country studies for Burkina Faso, Cameroon, and Ghana, which broadly represent the diversity of economic conditions in WCA countries. In order to capture the complex macro-economic effects of the crisis and the various policy responses - on trade, investment, remittances, aid flows, goods and factor markets - and to then trace their consequences in terms of child welfare - monetary poverty, hunger (caloric poverty), school participation, child labour, and access to health services - a combination of macro- and micro-analysis was adopted. The simulations suggest that the strongest effects are registered in terms of monetary poverty and hunger, although large differences between countries emerge. More moderate impacts are predicted in terms of school participation, child labour, and access to health care, although these are still significant and require urgent policy responses. Specifically, Ghana is the country where children are predicted to suffer the most in terms of monetary poverty and hunger, while Burkina Faso is where the largest deteriorations in schooling, child labour and access to health services are simulated. Among the policy responses examined to counteract the negative effects of the crisis on child wellbeing, a targeted cash transfer to predicted poor children is by far the most effective program. A comparison between a universal and targeted approach is also presented. |
| Keywords: | child education; child health; child poverty; child well-being; economic crisis; hunger; |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa596&r=afr |
| By: | Olivier Parent (Olivier Parent: University of Cincinnati); Abdallah Zouache |
| Abstract: | This paper examines Africa’s and Middle East’s growth performance for the period 1990- 2005. It employs a Bayesian Model Averaging method that constructs estimates as a weighted average of Spatial Autoregressive estimates for every possible combination of included variables. One of the results of the paper is that the inclusion of spatial dependencies has a direct impact on the determinants of growth in Africa and Middle-East. Indeed, the methodology used in the paper offers an interesting response to the institution/geography debate on the explanation of growth and development. In particular, our methodology allows a selection of the institutional variables that count to explain low development since the geographical variables are partially integrated in the spatial dependence effect. |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:490&r=afr |
| By: | Benczes, István; Szent-Iványi, Balázs |
| Abstract: | According to the textbook approach, the developmental states of the Far East have been considered as strong and autonomous entities. Although their bureaucratic elites have remained isolated from direct pressures stemming from society, the state capacity has also been utilised in order to allocate resources in the interest of the whole society. Yet, society – by and large –has remained weak and subordinated to the state elite. On the other hand, the general perception of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been just the opposite. The violent and permanent conflict amongst rent-seeking groups for influence and authority over resources has culminated in a situation where states have become extremely weak and fragmented, while society – depending on the capacity of competing groups for mobilising resources to organise themselves mostly on a regional or local level (resulting in local petty kingdoms) – has never had the chance to evolve as a strong player. State failure in the literature, therefore, – in the context of SSA – refers not just to a weak and captured state but also to a non-functioning, and sometimes even non-existent society, too. Recently, however, the driving forces of globalisation might have triggered serious changes in the above described status quo. Accordingly, our hypothesis is the following: globalisation, especially the dynamic changes of technology, capital and communication have made the simplistic “strong state–weak society” (in Asia) and “weak state–weak society” (in Africa) categorisation somewhat obsolete. While our comparative study has a strong emphasis on the empirical scrutiny of trying to uncover the dynamics of changes in state–society relations in the two chosen regions both qualitatively and quantitatively, it also aims at complementing the meaning and essence of the concepts and methodology of stateness, state capacity and state-society relations, the well-known building blocks of the seminal works of Evans (1995), Leftwich (1995), Migdal (1988) or Myrdal (1968). |
| Keywords: | development state; failed state; state autonomy; state capacity |
| JEL: | O25 P45 P51 |
| Date: | 2010–06–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:23384&r=afr |
| By: | Sami Bibi; John Cockburn; Luca Tiberti; Ismaël Fofana; Paul Ningaye; Christian Arnault Emini; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre; UNICEF West and Central Africa Regional Office (WCARO) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of the 2008/09 global economic crisis on child poverty in Cameroon. It also explores the potential effects that policy responses to such a crisis could have on children. In order to do this, the study uses a macro-micro methodology. A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to simulate various scenarios of the economic crisis together with policies which respond to the crisis, taking into account the different transmission channels of the global crisis to the Cameroonian economy. The results of the CGE model are then used in a micro-econometric module in order to evaluate the impacts of the simulated shocks on households in general and children in particular. Five dimensions of child poverty are examined: monetary poverty, caloric poverty, child school participation and child labour, and children’s access to health care services. The study shows that the crisis is projected to lower the real GDP growth rate by 1.3 percentage points in 2009, 0.9 in 2010 and 0.8 in 2011. The crisis would also bring about a 1.05% increase in the number of children who were poor in monetary terms in 2008 and a 4% increase in 2009, 2010 and 2011, compared to the situation without a crisis. With respect to this reference scenario, the crisis is simulated to increase the number of children who are poor in caloric terms by 0.56% in 2009, 1.08% in 2010 and 1.60% in 2011, and negatively affects, albeit lightly, both children’s school participation rate and their access to health care services. Four alternative policy responses to the crisis are simulated: a reduction in the VAT levied on the sale of food products; elimination of customs tariffs applied on imports of food products; free access to school canteens for children under the age of 15 in districts where monetary poverty is higher than the national average; and granting cash transfers to poor children. These policies, with a cost of 1%, 0.4%, 0.19% and 1% of Cameroon’s before-crisis GDP respectively, are financed either by foreign aid or by draining the state’s foreign reserves. Results from these simulations show that, in terms of poverty reduction, cash transfers appear to be the most effective of the four policy responses mentioned above, but this policy is the most ineffective at improving the real GDP growth rate. At the national level, the cash transfer policy completely counters the increase in monetary and caloric poverty engendered by the crisis over the entire period of the study. It even lowers these two types of poverty to less than the situation where the crisis did not occur. Moreover, these transfers have beneficial, although small, effects on children’s school and labour participation rates. Furthermore, beside the cash transfer policy, the subsidy for school canteens has a relatively low cost but carries fairly considerable benefits in response to the crisis, especially in alleviating caloric poverty; while the other two policies are quite ineffective, regardless of which dimension of poverty is considered. |
| Keywords: | child education; child health; child labour; child poverty; econometric models; economic crisis; hunger; social protection; |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa598&r=afr |
| By: | John Cockburn; Luca Tiberti; Ismaël Fofana; Lacina Balma; Samuel Kaboré; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre; UNICEF West and Central Africa Regional Office (WCARO) |
| Abstract: | Le Burkina Faso à vu ses gains économiques, durement acquis ces dernières années, rongés par la crise financière et économique mondiale du 2008-09. Il subit particulièrement les conséquences de la crise économie mondiale vu le lien étroit qu’il entretient avec l’économie globale. La plupart des effets néfastes sont d’abord transmis aux ménages, puis répercutés aux enfants. Ainsi, la situation des enfants dépend principalement du bien-être monétaire et non monétaire de leurs ménages. Par conséquent et étant donné leur plus grande vulnérabilité, les enfants risquent de souffrir davantage et plus longtemps des impacts de la crise. Il est nécessaire et urgent de comprendre et anticiper les effets potentiels de la crise sur les enfants au Burkina Faso, et ensuite de proposer des options de protection sociale pour les contrer. A cette fin, nous proposons une approche macro-micro économique. L’analyse macro-économique fait recours à un modèle d’équilibre général calculable (MEGC) pour simuler l’impact des divers canaux de transmission du choc de crise à l’économie Burkinabé. Les résultats de ces simulations nourrissent ensuite une analyse micro-économétrique qui intègre les comportements microéconomiques des individus et des ménages pour évaluer l'impact de la crise sur le bien-être des enfants. Selon nos simulations, conduites sur la période 2009-2011, la crise financière engendra une augmentation de l’incidence de la pauvreté monétaire et de pauvreté calorique chez les enfants Burkinabé par environ 5 et 1 points de pourcentage, respectivement. Par ailleurs, face à la crise, le taux de scolarisation chez les 7-14 ans baissera d’environ 0,7 point de pourcentage, alors que le travail des enfants augmentera d’environ 1 point de pourcentage. Finalement, une baisse dans le taux de consultation chez les enfants malades d’environ 1 point de pourcentage est attendu, ainsi qu’une substitution vers la médecine traditionnelle aux dépens des services de santé modernes. Des écarts régionaux et rural-urbain importants sont également mis en évidence. Une politique de transfert monétaire ciblant les enfants pauvres se révèle la plus efficace à contrer les effets pervers de la crise et à rétablir les tendances hors crise. Une telle politique, financée par un budget équivalent à 1% du PIB fourni par de l’aide extérieure, rétablit les tendances hors crise de pauvreté monétaire et mène même à une réduction de la faim, tout en atténuant les effets pervers de la crise sur la scolarisation, le travail des enfants et l’accès des enfants malades aux services modernes de santé. Une variante universelle (non-ciblée) de cette politique de transfert pour les 0-5 ans donne des résultats semblables et serait plus facile à appliquer. Des politiques de subventions alimentaires et céréalières, ainsi que des politiques de transferts monétaires visant les régions du Centre et du Boucle de Mouhon (les régions les plus affectées par les inondations du 1er septembre 2009) ont également été analysées. |
| Keywords: | child education; child health; child labour; child poverty; econometric models; economic crisis; hunger; social protection; |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa599&r=afr |
| By: | Sami Bibi; John Cockburn; Luca Tiberti; Ismaël Fofana; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre; UNICEF West and Central Africa Regional Office (WCARO) |
| Abstract: | This paper outlines the methodology of a UNICEF research project on the impact of the global economic crisis on children in Western and Central Africa, which can also be applied to study the effects of other socio-economic shocks on households and, particularly on children in developing countries. To understand the nature and the extent of the effects of a crisis in developing countries requires a rigorous analysis of the transmission mechanisms at both the macro and micro levels. This paper provides a tool to attempt to predict ex ante the impacts of the crisis, and possible policy responses, on households and their children. As timely data monitoring child well-being are not readily available to guide the rapid implementation of policies to protect children, predictive model was developed that anticipates the impacts of the crisis on various essential dimensions of child wellbeing. Specifically, this paper proposes and discusses a combined macro-micro model following a top-down approach. |
| Keywords: | child education; child health; child labour; child poverty; econometric models; economic crisis; hunger; social protection; |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa602&r=afr |
| By: | Danuta Chmielewska (International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth); Darana Souza (International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth) |
| Abstract: | Policies that support the livelihoods of smallholder farmers are crucial in efforts to tackle poverty and hunger, especially when they are designed to combine different sectors of public intervention. Small farmers account for a significant share of developing countries? rural poor, who in turn account for 75 per cent of the total poor population in those countries (World Bank, 2008). Smallholdings are typically operated by the poor, who make substantial use of labour from their own households and from their equally poor or even poorer neighbours. Moreover, much of their income is usually spent on locally produced goods and services, thereby stimulating the rural off-farm economy and creating additional jobs (Hazell et al., 2007). They are also vital for food production and can play a significant role in increasing the availability of and access to food (United Nations, 2008). Small farmers use several different strategies to secure their livelihoods, with a view to ensuring that their food requirements are met and that they generate enough income for their immediate consumption needs, social purposes and investments. Interaction with agricultural markets is an essential part of these strategies. Markets are where, as producers, smallholders buy their agricultural inputs and sell their products; they are where, as consumers, smallholders use income from the sale of crops or from their non-agricultural activities to buy food and other consumption goods. Improved market access, therefore, is not only important for better-off producers or for the production of cash crops rather than food crops; it is also very important for smallholder farmers (IFAD, 2003). (?) |
| Keywords: | Policies that support the livelihoods of smallholder farmers are crucial in efforts to tackle poverty and hunger, especially when they are designed t |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:wpaper:64&r=afr |
| By: | Sami Bibi; John Cockburn; Luca Tiberti; Ismaël Fofana; Paul Ningaye; Christian Arnault Emini; UNICEF Innocenti Research Centre; UNICEF West and Central Africa Regional Office (WCARO) |
| Abstract: | Cette étude vise, d’une part, à explorer les effets potentiels de la crise économique mondiale de 2008/09 sur la pauvreté des enfants au Cameroun. D’autre part, elle a pour but d’explorer les effets potentiels, sur cette même population-cible, des politiques qui seraient prises en réponse à ladite crise. Pour ce faire l’étude utilise une approche méthodologique top/down où, dans un premier temps, un modèle d’équilibre général calculable (EGC) de dynamique récursive est employé pour simuler les divers scénarios de crise économique et de politiques de réponse à la crise, en prenant en compte les différents canaux de transmission de la crise mondiale à l’économie camerounaise. Par la suite, les résultats produits par le modèle EGC sont utilisés dans un module micro-économétrique afin d'évaluer l’incidence des chocs simulés, sur les ménages en général et les enfants en particulier. Cinque dimensions de pauvreté des enfants sont examinées: la pauvreté monétaire; la pauvreté calorique; le taux de scolarité et/ou de participation des enfants au travail; enfin, l’accès des enfants aux soins de santé. L’étude montre que la crise engendrait une augmentation de 1,05% du nombre d’enfants pauvres en termes monétaires en 2008, de plus de 4% en 2009, 2010 et 2011, comparativement à la situation où elle ne serait pas survenue. Par rapport à cette même situation de référence, les simulations suggèrent que la crise augmenterait le nombre d’enfants pauvres sur le plan calorique de 0,56% en 2009, 1,08% en 2010 et de 1,60% en 2011, et influencerait négativement bien que légèrement la scolarité et l’accès des enfants aux soins de santé. Quatre politiques alternatives de réponse à cette crise sont simulées: une réduction de la TVA prélevée sur la vente des produits alimentaires; une suppression des droits de douane appliqués sur les importations de produits alimentaires; la gratuité de l’inscription des enfants de moins de 15 ans aux cantines scolaires dans les districts où le taux de pauvreté monétaire est supérieur au taux national; l’octroi de transferts en espèces aux ménages dont les enfants sont pauvres. Ces mesures, avec un cout respectif équivalent à 1%, 0,4%, 0,19% et 1% du PIB d’avant-crise au Cameroun, sont financées soit par l’aide internationale, soit par une ponction des réserves extérieures de l’Etat. Il ressort des simulations qu’en termes de réduction de la pauvreté, l’octroi des transferts en espèces se révèle comme étant la plus efficace des quatre politiques de réponse susmentionnées, bien que cette politique soit la plus inefficace de toutes pour améliorer le taux de croissance du PIB réel. Au plan national, la politique des transferts en espèces annihile intégralement l’augmentation des pauvretés monétaire et calorique due à la crise, durant toute la période d’étude. Qui plus est, elle entraîne une baisse sensible de ces deux types de pauvreté, comparativement aux niveaux de prévalence respectifs de ceux-ci dans la situation où la crise ne serait pas survenue. Par ailleurs, les effets des transferts sur le plan de la scolarité, de la participation des enfants au travail et sur l’accès de ces derniers aux soins de santé sont globalement meilleurs bien que légers. Derrière la politique des transferts en espèces, celle de la subvention des cantines scolaires, avec pourtant un coût relativement bas, donne aussi une réponse considérablement bénéfique face à la crise, surtout sur le plan de la pauvreté calorique; tandis que les deux autres politiques s’avèrent inefficaces, quelle que soit la dimension de la pauvreté considérée. |
| Keywords: | child education; child health; child labour; child poverty; econometric models; economic crisis; hunger; social protection; |
| JEL: | I32 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucf:inwopa:inwopa600&r=afr |
| By: | Kondylis, Florence; Manacorda, Marco |
| Abstract: | Is improved school accessibility an effective policy tool for reducing child labor in developing countries? We address this question using micro data from rural Tanzania and a regression strategy that attempts to control for non-random location of households around schools as well as classical and nonclassical measurement error in self-reported distance to school. Consistent with a simple model of child labor supply, but contrary to what appears to be a widespread perception, our analysis shows that school proximity leads to a rise in school attendance but no fall in child labor. |
| Keywords: | child labor; distance to school; school enrollment |
| JEL: | J22 J82 O12 O55 |
| Date: | 2010–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7890&r=afr |