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on Africa |
| By: | de Walque, Damien; Kline, Rachel |
| Abstract: | Based on nationally representative samples from 13 Sub-Saharan African countries, this paper reinforces and expands previous findings that condom use in general is low in this region, men report using condoms more frequently than women, and unmarried individuals report they use condoms more frequently than married individuals with their spouse. Based on descriptive, bivariate, and multivariate analyses, the authors also demonstrate to a degree not previously shown in the current literature that married men from most countries report using condoms with extramarital partners about as frequently as unmarried men. However, married women from most countries included use condoms with extramarital partners less frequently than unmarried women. This result is especially troubling because marriage usually ensures regular sexual intercourse, providing more opportunities to pass HIV from extramarital partner to spouse than an unmarried person who may also have multiple partners but not as regular sexual intercourse. |
| Keywords: | Population Policies,Gender and Health,Adolescent Health,HIV AIDS,Gender and Law |
| Date: | 2009–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5130&r=afr |
| By: | Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Alain Kabundi (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg); Mampho P. Modise (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria and South African Treasury, Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the impact of a monetary policy shock on 15 key macroeconomic variables of South Africa, in the pre- and post-inflation targeting periods. For this purpose, we use a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model comprising of 107 monthly time series over two equal sub-samples of 1989:01-1997:12 and 2000:01-2008:12. The results, based on impulse response functions, are in line with economic theory and indicate no puzzling effects often observed with small-scale monetary Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. More importantly, we find that the ability of monetary policy in affecting key macroeconomic variables, including inflation, has increased in the post-targeting period. But, majority of the effects are insignificant, which could, however, also be due to the shorter-lengths of the sub-samples relative to the number of variables used in this study, rather than depicting the inability of monetary policy to significantly affect the South African economy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy Shock, Inflation Targeting, Impulse Response Functions, FAVAR |
| JEL: | C32 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2009–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:200925&r=afr |
| By: | Badiane, Ousmane; Ulimwengu, John |
| Abstract: | The need to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) has raised the profile of social sector investments in Africa and other developing countries. As a result, many African countries are pressured to emphasize short-term concerns related to the symptoms of poverty at the expense of the longer-term needs to raise productivity and incomes, and thereby tackle the real roots of poverty. Because of scarce budget resources, there is a major challenge for African governments in terms of ensuring the necessary consistency of policies and strategies to promote long-term economic growth, raise smallholder productivity, achieve food security, and reduce poverty, while providing the social services that respond to immediate welfare requirements. The main objective of the convergence agenda exposed in this paper is to identify strategies that would allow developing countries to improve the management of public expenditures so as to raise the chances of meeting the income growth and social needs of their populations under tight budget constraints. In this paper we have (1) discussed the terminology used in describing the problem being studied and formulated the assumptions and hypotheses underlying the research; (2) defined a typology of growth–poverty pathways; (3) developed metrics to measure the strength of the relationship between growth and poverty reduction; (4) laid out the theory for the measurement of the degree of convergence of public expenditures on social services, that is, the extent to which they are optimized with respect to their impact on labor productivity and growth; and (5) outlined models for (a) the quantification of social services availability at the local level using a single-score concept, (b) the evaluation of the quality and efficiency of public expenditures in social services sectors in rural areas, and (c) the optimization of public expenditures allocation to maximize the impact on growth and poverty reduction; as well as (6) provided initial evidence proving the validity of the theory of convergence. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Expenditure, Social services, Convergence, Agriculture, Poverty overhang, Growth deficit, Public investment, |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:906&r=afr |
| By: | Tamim Bayoumi; Alun H. Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the Permanent Income Model to the non-oil current accounts of the major oil exporters to assess the extent to which national consumption decisions in these countries are made on the basis of permanent versus current income. A test of whether the return on oil wealth and oil balance coefficients sum to unity is accepted for all specifications that adjust the return on wealth for future population changes. For oil-exporting countries outside Africa, around half of the fluctuations in the private sector non-oil balance are driven by considerations of changes in permanent income (the return on oil wealth) rather than current income. By contrast, for the public sector and African countries permanent income has little or no effect. |
| Keywords: | Africa , Consumption , Current account balances , Economic models , National income , Nonoil sector , Oil exporting countries , Oil prices , Oil revenues , Private sector , Public sector , |
| Date: | 2009–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/248&r=afr |
| By: | Duflo, Esther; Kremer, Michael; Robinson, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | While many developing-country policymakers see heavy fertilizer subsidies as critical to raising agricultural productivity, most economists see them as distortionary, regressive, environmentally unsound, and argue that they result in politicized, inefficient distribution of fertilizer supply. We model farmers as facing small fixed costs of purchasing fertilizer, and assume some are stochastically present-biased and not fully sophisticated about this bias. Even when relatively patient, such farmers may procrastinate, postponing fertilizer purchases until later periods, when they may be too impatient to purchase fertilizer. Consistent with the model, many farmers in Western Kenya fail to take advantage of apparently profitable fertilizer investments, but they do invest in response to small, time-limited discounts on the cost of acquiring fertilizer (free delivery) just after harvest. Later discounts have a smaller impact, and when given a choice of price schedules, many farmers choose schedules that induce advance purchase. Calibration suggests such small, time-limited discounts yield higher welfare than either laissez faire or heavy subsidies by helping present-biased farmers commit to fertilizer use without inducing those with standard preferences to substantially overuse fertilizer. |
| Keywords: | hyperbolic discounting; technology adoption |
| JEL: | O12 O38 |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7402&r=afr |
| By: | Drimie, Scott; Weinand, Julia; Gillespie, Stuart; Wagah, Margaret |
| Abstract: | The Lake Victoria region has the highest HIV prevalence in the East African Community, which comprises Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. This region also has a significant concentration of commercial agricultural plantations, which rely on mobile workers, an extensive system of out-grower schemes, and linkages with neighboring communities and transportation routes. This paper reviews the relationships between the various components of the plantation system and the spread of HIV, which is a complex and dynamic process. There has been relatively little research on these dynamic interactions, and the relevant policies and programs are generally silent on mobility-induced vulnerability to HIV. As such, this review first examines how the conditions and structure of the migration process may increase HIV vulnerability for migrants, thereby illuminating key challenges. Second, the review considers what may be done to address these issues, particularly within the plantation system. A comprehensive response to HIV would require that the plantation companies engage in efforts against HIV/AIDS across its entire time line (that is, ranging from efforts to prevent infection to attempts to mitigate its full impact on both agricultural workers and the business as a whole). Despite the logic of this argument, we do not yet have strong financial evidence proving that companies should invest in a comprehensive strategy. This critical gap should be addressed. For example, pilot programs on select plantations could be used to show the cost-benefits of addressing HIV/AIDS through a well-designed set of interventions aimed at the different target groups. |
| Keywords: | HIV/AIDS, Mobility, Migrant workers, Agricultural plantations, |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:905&r=afr |
| By: | Mika Saito; Daehaeng Kim |
| Abstract: | A zero net domestic financing (NDF) target has served Tanzania well in recent years, contributing to prudent expenditure policy, improved fiscal sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. Moving to a more flexible fiscal policy, however, may serve Tanzania better. The "diamond rule" proposed in this paper incorporates a permanent hard ceiling on debt and annual benchmark limits on NDF, expenditure growth, and nonconcessional external financing. This rule would provide flexibility for countercyclical policy and help define the fiscal space for infrastructure spending that is consistent with longrun fiscal sustainability. An illustrative simulation shows that Tanzania has considerable fiscal space for development spending. |
| Keywords: | Budgetary policy , Budgeting , Cross country analysis , Debt sustainability , External borrowing , External debt , Fiscal policy , Fiscal sustainability , Government expenditures , Public investment , Revenues , Tanzania , |
| Date: | 2009–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:09/244&r=afr |
| By: | Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano |
| Abstract: | Nowadays, the impact of oil price shocks is pervasive as it virtually affects all facets of human endeavor. As such, it is pertinent that we should know the relationship between oil price shocks and the macroeconomy. Therefore, this paper assesses empirically, the effects of oil price shocks on the real macroeconomic activity in Nigeria. Granger causality tests and multivariate VAR analysis were carried out using both linear and non-linear specifications. Inter alia, the latter category includes two approaches employed in the literature, namely, the asymmetric and net specifications oil price specifications. The paper finds evidence of both linear and non-linear impact of oil price shocks on real GDP. In particular, asymmetric oil price increases in the non-linear models are found to have positive impact on real GDP growth of a larger magnitude than asymmetric oil price decreases adversely affects real GDP. The non-linear estimation records significant improvement over the linear estimation and the one reported earlier by Aliyu (2009). Further, utilizing the Wald and the Granger multivariate and bivariate causality tests, results from the latter indicate that linear price change and all the other oil price transformations are significant for the system as a whole. The Wald test indicates that our oil price coefficients in linear and asymmetric specifications are statistically significant. |
| Keywords: | Oil Shocks; Macroeconomy; Granger Causality; Asymmetry; Vector Autoregressive |
| JEL: | E37 Q43 |
| Date: | 2009–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:18726&r=afr |
| By: | Lall, Somik V.; Wang, Hyoung; Munthali, Thomas |
| Abstract: | What are the main determinants of transport costs: network access or competition among transport providers? The focus in the transport sector has often been on improving the coverage of"hard"infrastructure, whereas in reality the cost of transporting goods is quite sensitive to the extent of competition among transport providers and scale economies in the freight transport industry, creating monopolistic behavior and circular causation between lower transport costs and greater trade and traffic. This paper contributes to the discussion on transport costs in Malawi, providing fresh empirical evidence based on a specially commissioned survey of transport providers and spatial analysis of the country’s infrastructure network. The main finding is that both infrastructure quality and market structure of the trucking industry are important contributors to regional differences in transport costs. The quality of the trunk road network is not a major constraint but differences in the quality of feeder roads connecting villages to the main road network have significant bearing on transport costs. And costs due to poor feeder roads are exacerbated by low volumes of trade between rural locations and market centers. With empty backhauls and journeys covering small distances, only a few transport service providers enter the market, charging disproportionately high prices to cover fixed costs and maximize markups. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Rural Roads&Transport,Roads&Highways,Banks&Banking Reform,Rural Transport |
| Date: | 2009–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5133&r=afr |
| By: | Fafchamps, Marcel; Moradi, Alexander |
| Abstract: | As formalized by Montgomery (1991), referral by employees improves efficiency if the unobserved quality of a new worker is higher than that of unrefereed workers. Using data compiled from army archives, we test whether the referral system in use in the British colonial army in Ghana served to improve the unobserved quality of new recruits. We find that it did not: referred recruits were more likely than unreferred recruits to desert or be dismissed as 'inefficient' or 'unfit'. We find instead evidence of referee opportunism. The fact that referred recruits have better observed characteristics at the time of recruitment suggests that army recruiters may have been aware of this problem. |
| Keywords: | employee referral; hidden attributes; worker productivity |
| JEL: | J63 N47 O15 |
| Date: | 2009–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7408&r=afr |