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on Africa |
| By: | Nicole Mason; T.S. Jayne; Cynthia Donovan; Antony Chapoto |
| Abstract: | d food and financial crises threaten to undermine the real incomes of an consumers in eastern and southern Africa. This study investigates patterns in staple food prices, wage rates, and marketing margins for urban consumers in Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia between 1993 and 2009. There is high correlation among wage rate series for various government and private sector categories. We find that average formal sector wages rose at a faster rate than retail maize meal and bread prices in urban Kenya and Zambia between the mid-1990s and 2007. Although the 2007/08 food price crisis partially reversed this trend, the quantities of staple foods affordable per daily wage in urban Kenya and Zambia during the 2008/09 marketing season were still roughly double their levels of the mid-1990s. The national minimum wage in Mozambique also grew more rapidly than rice and wheat flour prices in Maputo from the mid-1990s through the 2004/05 and 2006/07 marketing seasons, respectively. During the 2008/09 marketing season, Maputo minimum wage earners’ rice and wheat flour purchasing power was still higher than in the mid-1990s and roughly similar to levels at the millennium. These findings obtain for formal sector wage earners in Kenya and Zambia and minimum wage earners in Mozambique only. The majority of the urban labor force in these countries is employed in the informal sector; therefore, the general conclusion of improved food purchasing power over the past 15 years may not hold for a significant portion of urban workers. Maize marketing margins trended downward between 1994 and 2004 in urban Kenya, Malawi, and Zambia, while wheat marketing margins declined only in Kenya and Zambia. For the public sector, important strategies for keeping food prices at tolerable levels include strengthening and improving crop forecasting and the food balance sheet approach for estimating need for imports, facilitating imports in a timely manner when needed, and ensuring the continued availability of low- cost staple food options for urban consumers through small-scale processing and marketing channels. |
| Keywords: | agriculture, africa, food, price |
| JEL: | Q11 |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:idpwrk:98&r=afr |
| By: | Romoen, Maria (Faculty of Medicine); Sundby, Johanne (Faculty of Medicine); Hjortdahl, Per (Faculty of Medicine); Hussein, Fatrima (Ministry of Health); Steen, Tore W. (Ministry of Health); Velauthapillai, Manonmany (Ministry of Health); Kristiansen, Ivar Sønbø (Institute of Health Management and Health Economics) |
| Abstract: | Objectives: Chlamydia is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection worldwide and a major cause of morbidity – particularly among women and neonates. We compared costs and health consequences of using point-of-care (POC) tests with current syndromic management among antenatal care attendees in sub-Saharan Africa. We also compared erythromycin with azithromycin treatment and universal with age-based chlamydia management. Methods: A decision analytic model was developed to compare diagnostic and treatment strategies, using Botswana as a case. Model input was based upon 1) a study of pregnant women in Botswana, 2) literature reviews and 3) expert opinion. We expressed the study outcome in terms of costs (US$), cases cured, magnitude of overtreatment and successful partner treatment. Results: Azithromycin was less costly and more effective than was erythromycin. Compared to syndromic management, testing all attendees on their first visit with a 75% sensitive POC test increased the number of cases cured from 1 500 to 3 500 in a population of 100 000 women, at a cost of US$38 per additional case cured. This cost was lower in high-prevalence populations or if testing was restricted to teenagers. The specific POC tests provided the advantage of substantial reductions in overtreatment with antibiotics and improved partner management. Conclusions: Using POC tests to diagnose chlamydia during antenatal care in sub-Saharan Africa entails greater health benefits than syndromic management does – and at acceptable costs – especially when restricted to younger women. Changes in diagnostic strategy and treatment regimens may improve people’s health and even reduce health care budgets. |
| Keywords: | Chlamydia trachomatis (MeSH); Cost-effectiveness analysis (non-MeSH); Cost Analysis (MeSH); Developing countries (MeSH); Africa (MeSH); Sub-Saharan Africa (MeSH) Maternal health (non-MeSH); Maternal Health Services (MeSH); Women’s Health (MeSH); Point-of-care tests (non-MeSH); Diagnostic tests (non-MeSH); Diagnosis (MeSH); Syndromic approach (non-MeSH); STI management (non-MeSH) |
| JEL: | I18 |
| Date: | 2009–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oslohe:2007_010&r=afr |
| By: | Thurlow, James; George, Gavin; Gow, Jeff |
| Abstract: | "This paper estimates the economic impact of HIV/AIDS on KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) and the rest of South Africa (RSA). We extend previous studies by employing an integrated analytical framework that combines the following: firm-level surveys of workers' HIV prevalence by sector and occupation; a demographic model that produces both population and workforce projections; and a regionalized economywide model linked to a survey-based micro-simulation module. This framework permits a full macro-microeconomic assessment. The results indicate that HIV/AIDS greatly reduces annual economic growth, mainly by lowering the long-term rate of technical change. However, the impacts on income poverty are small, and inequality is reduced by HIV/AIDS. This is because high unemployment among low-income households minimizes the economic costs of increased mortality. In contrast, slower economic growth hurts higher-income households despite the lower prevalence of HIV among these households. We conclude that the increase in economic growth achieved through addressing HIV/AIDS is sufficient to offset the population pressure this move will place on income poverty. Moreover, incentives to mitigate HIV/AIDS lie not only with poorer infected households, but also with uninfected higher-income households. Our findings reveal that HIV/AIDS will place a substantial burden on future economic development in KZN and RSA, confirming the need for policies to curb the economic costs of this pandemic." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | HIV/AIDS, Growth, Poverty, Development strategies, KwaZulu-Natal, |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:864&r=afr |
| By: | Monique Reid (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | The inflation expectations channel of the transmission mechanism is generally recognised as crucial for the implementation of modern monetary policy. This paper briefly reviews the practices commonly employed for measuring inflation expectations in South Africa and offers an additional method, which is market based. The methodologies of Nelson and Siegel (1987) and Svensson (1994) are applied to determine implied nominal and real forward interest rates. The difference between the nominal and real forward rates (called inflation compensation) on a particular day is then used as a proxy for the market’s inflation expectations. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for other measures of inflation expectations, but should rather supplement these in order to offer an additional insight. |
| Keywords: | South Africa, Inflation expectations, Monetary policy transmission mechanism, Implied forward rates, Term structure of interest rates |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers81&r=afr |
| By: | Kate Bayliss (Independent Consultant, Brighton, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | Policies to promote privatisation in developing-country infrastructure gained momentum in the early 1990s as donors grew increasingly frustrated with efforts to strengthen public sector services that continued to fail. The strategy was intended to bring both finance and efficiency to ailing infrastructure throughout the developing world. Nearly two decades later the results have been disappointing, particularly in the areas of greatest need. The extent of investor interest in water and electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was massively overestimated and the hoped-for private investment failed to materialise. Rates of access to electricity and water remain far below those of other developing regions. In response to the failings of privatisation there has been a redoubling of efforts to attract investors, albeit with the recognition that this might take longer than originally thought. Privatisation in various guises is still prominent on the policy agenda. This paper critically assesses the motives behind the drive for private sector participation (PSP) in water and electricity in SSA, and reviews measures adopted by governments and donors to entice investors. In terms of restructuring and pricing, sector policies have the underlying objective of facilitating private investment and reducing the risk exposure for potential investors. In addition, a plethora of donor initiatives have emerged with the aim of bringing private investment into the region, and these too focus on reducing risk for the private sector. As a result, on offer to the private sector are the least challenging and most lucrative aspects of delivery, which are tightly ring-fenced and bound by guarantees. In industrialised economies, discussions of the merits of PSP highlight the importance of transferring risk to the private sector in order to generate efficiency gains. In contrast, as regards attracting PSP into utilities in SSA, the focus is on reducing the risk to which the private sector is exposed. But this risk is not reduced, it is transferred. As a result, African governments, taxpayers and end-users bear high levels of risk in order to accommodate the priorities of investors. (...) |
| Keywords: | Private Sector Participation in African Infrastructure: Is it Worth the Risk? |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:wpaper:55&r=afr |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | "We use a dynamic CGE model to quantitatively assess the economywide impact of HPAI in Ghana. The likely effect of an avian flu outbreak is modeled as demand or supply shocks to the poultry sector. Our analysis shows that, while chicken is a quite small sector of the Ghanaian economy, the shock in chicken demand due to consumers' anxieties is the dominant factor in causing chicken production to fall. The indirect effect on soybean and maize that are used as chicken feed is also large. Under the worst-case scenario, soybean production will fall by 37 percent and maize by 6.4 percent. However, the economywide impact on both AgGDP and GDP is very small. In the worst-case scenario, in which chicken production falls by 70 percent in 2011, AgGDP falls by only 0.4 percent and GDP is almost unchanged. However, the livelihood impacts of a HPAI outbreak could be significant for some sections of the population in Ghana particularly those involved in the poultry sector. Micro-level analysis of chicken producers' livelihood, therefore, is necessary." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Avian influenza Developing countries, General equilibrium model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Food safety, Water quality, Water policies, |
| Date: | 2009 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:866&r=afr |
| By: | John Serieux (Assistant Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Manitoba) |
| Keywords: | ¿Por qué la Asistencia no Aumenta las Tasas de Ahorro en África Subsahariana? |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opespa:75&r=afr |
| By: | Antony Chapoto; T.S. Jayne |
| Abstract: | events in the 2008/09 season have amply demonstrated, instability in food market remains a major problem in Zambia. A rise in world food price levels and instability, which is projected to occur in the near future according to several international institutes, will make it all more important for developing countries to consider the strengths and weaknesses of alternative approaches for buffering their domestic food systems from potential high volatility in world markets. These findings suggest that promoting more “rules based” approaches to marketing and trade policy may reduce the level of policy uncertainty and the price instability associated with it. Greater policy stability may also contribute to broader grain market development. For the most part, addressing problems of policy uncertainty involve very little cost per se, but do require greater coordination and more efficient management of government operations. However, policy makers may feel that rules-based and non-discretionary marketing and trade policies entails a loss of control and autonomy – leaders are bound to act according to predefined rules and triggers. Successfully addressing these dilemmas may lie at the heart of efforts to move to a new post-liberalization system in which governments retain the ability to influence prices to achieve national food security objectives but within a clear and transparent framework of credible commitment to support long run private investment in the development of markets. |
| Keywords: | zambia, maize, trade, price |
| JEL: | Q11 |
| Date: | 2009–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:icpw-zm-fsrp-wp-38&r=afr |
| By: | Degol Hailu (UNDP SURF) |
| Keywords: | ¿Las Chitas Están Siguiendo el Camino de los Tigres? Analizando las Altas Tasas de Crecimiento en África |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opespa:70&r=afr |
| By: | Degol Hailu (UNDP SURF) |
| Keywords: | La Macroeconomía del Aumento de la Asistencia: lo que Sabemos de Kenia, Malaui y Zambia |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opespa:67&r=afr |
| By: | Degol Hailu (UNDP SURF) |
| Keywords: | Expansión de los Ricos, Contracción de los Pobres. La Paradoja de la Política Macroeconómica en Etiopía |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opespa:78&r=afr |