|
on Africa |
| By: | Larry Sawers; Eileen Stillwaggon |
| Abstract: | Background: Adult HIV prevalence in the nine countries of southern Africa averages more than 16 times the prevalence in other low- and middle-income countries. Previous studies argue that the intensity of the HIV epidemic in southern Africa results from regional characteristics, such as apartheid labor regulations and regional mineral wealth, which contributed to circular migration patterns and highly skewed income distribution. The present study also emphasizes the importance of cofactor diseases, which are suspected of raising HIV prevalence by increasing HIV viral load in infected persons or by making uninfected persons more vulnerable to HIV infection through lower immunity or genital lesions and/or inflammation. Method: the study uses multiple regression analysis on country-level data with HIV prevalence as the dependent variable. Regressors are ten socio-economic variables used in most previous cross-national analyses of HIV, two measures of cross-border migration, and measures of six cofactor infections. Results: The 10 socio-economic variables “explain” statistically only 25% of the difference in HIV prevalence between southern Africa and other low- and middle-income countries, but adding the four cofactor infection variables to the model allows us to “explain” 80% of the southern Africa difference in HIV prevalence. Conclusion: The relative affluence of southern Africa and historical migration patterns have tended to mask the vulnerability of the majority of the population who are poor and who have very high prevalence of infectious and parasitic diseases. Those diseases replicate a cycle of poverty that can lead not just to social vulnerability to HIV through risky behaviors but also to biological vulnerability through coinfections. An important implication of this research is that integrating treatment of endemic diseases with other HIVprevention policies may be necessary to slow the spread of HIV. Treatment of cofactor infections is a lowcost, policy-sensitive, high-impact variable. |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:amu:wpaper:1108&r=afr |
| By: | Jones Govereh (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University); T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University); A. Chapoto (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | The economic reforms in maize marketing and trade policies implemented during the 1990s have been highly controversial, and there remains a lack of solid empirical investigation on the impacts of these reforms on national food security, price stability and rural income growth. This study aims to provide a detailed evidence-based analysis of the impacts of maize marketing and trade policies on smallholder agricultural production growth, access to food by consumers, and other important national policy objectives. These insights from Zambia can hopefully move forward the continuing debate in the region on how maize marketing and trade policies should be structured in the future. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, maize, trade |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-033&r=afr |
| By: | Nhemachena, Charles; Hassan, Rashid M. |
| Abstract: | "Agricultural production remains the main source of livelihood for rural communities in Sub-Saharan Africa, providing employment to more than 60 percent of the population and contributing about 30 percent of gross domestic product. With likely long-term changes in rainfall patterns and shifting temperature zones, climate change is expected to significantly affect agricultural production, which could be detrimental to the region's food security and economic growth. An assessment of the factors influencing farm-level adaptation can facilitate the formation of policies and investment strategies that help moderate potential adverse consequences of long-term climate change. Because smallholder farmers tend to have a low capacity to adapt to changes in climatic conditions, policies that help these farmers adapt to global warming and associated climatic extremes are particularly important. This brief is based on a study that assesses smallholder farmers' adaptation to climate change in southern Africa. The study identifies farmers' perceptions of climate change and the determinants of farm-level adaptation strategies, and recommends policies that could help stabilize national and regional food production given the anticipated adverse effects of climate change." from text |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Small farmers, farm-level adaptation strategies, credit policies, barriers to research information, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resbrf:15(7)&r=afr |
| By: | Degol Hailu (UNDP SURF) |
| Abstract: | African economies are growing. Between 2000 and 2007, GDP growth for the whole region averaged 4.4 per cent. Five countries managed to grow by more than 7 per cent. This magical number is often used as a benchmark for achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In another 14 countries, growth rates were at 5?6 per cent, even despite negative per capita growth for 12 of the 47 sub-Saharan countries. For instance, growth shrank by 5.6 per cent in Zimbabwe, by 2.2 in Cote d?Ivoire, by 3.3 per cent in Eritrea, and by 1.4 per cent in the Central African Republic. |
| Keywords: | Are the Cheetahs Tracking the Tigers? Probing High Growth Rates in Africa |
| Date: | 2008–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:70&r=afr |
| By: | Shewmake, Sharon |
| Abstract: | "This paper uses farmers' responses to exogenous weather shocks in South Africa's Limpopo River Basin to gauge how farmers are apt to respond to future climate change-induced shocks, in particular drought. Droughts are expected to increase in both frequency and intensity as a result of climate change. This study examines the costs of drought today and who it affects the most, in an effort to guide policy adaptations in the future. A combination of descriptive statistics and econometric analysis is used to approximate the potential impact of droughts on rural South African households. This paper also estimates household vulnerability. After controlling for household heterogeneity using propensity score matching, it is noted that there is no statistically significant impact of droughts on income, thus suggesting households have already adapted to living in a drought-prone environment. The types of households that were more vulnerable to climate shocks are analyzed using two measures of vulnerability: the probability of falling below income of 7,800 South African Rand (R), and the probability of income falling below 16,000 R. Residents of the Limpopo province were the least vulnerable under both metrics. Setswana and SeSwati households were more vulnerable than other ethnic groups. Households that do not own livestock and households that rely on rainfed agriculture were also more vulnerable than other households." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Vulnerability, Climate change, drought, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:804&r=afr |
| By: | Arne Bigsten (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.); Sven Tengstam (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between income diversification and income change within Zambian smallholder households, and investigates what the constraints of income diversification are in this group. A panel data set of roughly 7000 smallholder farmer households interviewed in 2001 and 2004 is used. Different combinations of the four main income generating activities – farm income, agricultural wage work, non-agricultural wagework, and own-business income – are analyzed. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, smallholder, income |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-031&r=afr |
| By: | Arne Bigsten (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.); Sven Tengstam (Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden.) |
| Abstract: | 1) One can achieve poverty reduction in rural areas of Zambia by both growth and inequality reduction, but growth must be the main driver; 2) Rural income growth does not come from agriculture alone so options to diversify income are very important and should be pursued; 3) But careful attention is required to focus on improved endowments and reduced constraints facing households trying to improve agriculture directly as well as trying to improve possibilities of income diversification away from agriculture; and 4) Land per labourer, education, and location (market access and infrastructure) are key dimensions to understand and figure out how to improve. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, small holder, poverty, income |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-030&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University); T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Concern about humanitarian crises in southern Africa, especially in light of the surge in world food prices since 2007, has been accompanied by calls for direct government action in food markets. This paper reviews how Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique handled private food markets during the food crises of 2001/02, 2002/03, and 2005/06, which may provide important lessons for the management of future crises. Lack of trust between government and traders can lead to behavior that undermines the interests of each and harms consumers and farmers; Malawi and Zambia have persistently fallen into this trap while Mozambique has partially avoided it. Empirical policy analysis can make an important contribution to resolution only within a consultative process involving a broad range of (often fractious) stakeholders. |
| Keywords: | Southern Africa, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, markets, emergency response, trust |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:idpwrk:094&r=afr |
| By: | Isaac Minde; T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resouce Economics, Michigan State University); Eric Crawford (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resouce Economics, Michigan State University); Joshua Ariga (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resouce Economics, Michigan State University); Jones Govereh (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resouce Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | It is generally agreed that increasing agricultural productivity is critical to stimulating the rate of economic growth in Africa. There are many important and often complementary determinants of agricultural productivity. In this brief and the full paper it draws from, the focus is on fertilizer and improved seed, without intending to imply that they are the only or most significant productivity determinants. Promoting the use of fertilizer and improved seed involves addressing the supply and demand constraints that keep usage rates low, especially among smallholder farmers. Such inputs must be available, affordable, and profitable—for suppliers and farmers alike—without creating untenable financial risks. Agricultural research, input market development, and direct promotion of input use through provision of credit and subsidized distribution are used to improve access to improved inputs and the incentive to use them. Recently, the role of input subsidies in stimulating growth and addressing food security and poverty alleviation objectives has re-emerged as an important agricultural policy debate. Sharp increases in world food and fertilizer prices in 2007 and 2008 have created a sense of urgency in meeting productivity and social welfare goals, and have put fertilizer promotion programs and fertilizer subsidies high on the list of options for government and donor responses to the crisis. |
| Keywords: | Africa, food security, food policy, fertilizer |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:polbrf:083&r=afr |
| By: | Yesuf, Mahmud; Bluffstone, Randy |
| Abstract: | "Agricultural production remains the main source of livelihood for rural communities in Sub-Saharan Africa, providing employment to more than 60 percent of the population and contributing about 30 percent of gross domestic product. With likely long-term changes in rainfall patterns and shifting temperature zones, climate change is expected to significantly affect agricultural production, which could be detrimental to the region's food security and economic growth. An assessment of the factors influencing farm-level adaptation can facilitate the formation of policies and investment strategies that help moderate potential adverse consequences of long-term climate change. Because smallholder farmers tend to have a low capacity to adapt to changes in climatic conditions, policies that help these farmers adapt to global warming and associated climatic extremes are particularly important. This brief is based on a study that assesses smallholder farmers' adaptation to climate change in southern Africa. The study identifies farmers' perceptions of climate change and the determinants of farm-level adaptation strategies, and recommends policies that could help stabilize national and regional food production given the anticipated adverse effects of climate change." from text |
| Keywords: | Risk aversion, farm-level adaptation strategies, Small farmers, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resbrf:15(16)&r=afr |
| By: | Philip Verwimp (Fund for Scientific Research (FWO), University of Antwerp); Tom Bundervoet (Vrije Universiteit Brussel) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effect of civil war on household welfare. Using Burundian panel data for the 1998-2007 period in which we re-interviewed original as well as newly formed households (split-offs), we show that headcount poverty decreased by 3.5 % points when split-off households are taken into account and 1% when splits are left out. Poverty is persistent while prosperity is not, in particular in war-affected areas. We find that 25 war-related deaths or wounded at the village level reduce consumption growth by 13%. We also find that violence afflicted on household members decreases growth whereas membership of rebel groups increases it. Apart from such war-related effects - and controlling for initial levels of consumption - we find that temporarily famine-induced migration and illness decrease growth while good harvests, more split-offs and higher initial levels of education increase it. Good harvests are found to have persistent positive effects on growth. Our results are robust for different household and province fixed effects specifications. |
| Keywords: | Consumption, Growth, Split-off households, Civil war, Panel data, Africa |
| JEL: | C81 I32 O12 N47 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcn:rwpapr:9&r=afr |
| By: | Steven Haggblade (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University); Misheck Nyembe (Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Cassava production has grown rapidly in Zambia since the early 1990’s. Available evidence suggests that volumes of traded cassava have been increasing roughly twice as fast as production. Yet this cassava production boom could stall unless commercial markets for it develop. To help accelerate commercial development of cassava and cassava-based products at the national level, Zambia’s Agricultural Consultative Forum (ACF) initiated an Acceleration of Cassava Utilization (ACU) Task Force, beginning in August 2005. At a regional level, efforts such as the Cassava Transformation in Southern Africa (CATISA) project aim to complement national efforts and help facilitate regional spillovers, so that new products, new technologies or new lessons can help to accelerate cassava-based commercial growth throughout the region. This paper aims to provide empirical content in support of both the ACU Task Force and CATISA activities. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, cassava |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-032&r=afr |
| By: | Antony Chapoto (Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics Department, Michigan State University); Steven Haggblade (Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics Department, Michigan State University); Julius Shawa; Thomas Jayne (Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics Department, Michigan State University); Michael Weber (Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics Department, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | 1) Maize prices are rising rapidly in 2008 and are fast approaching import parity levels. 2) Maize traders, millers and farmers all agree that Zambia will likely require imports by early 2009 in order to avoid domestic maize supply shortages. 3) Official food balance sheets appear to have underestimated the demand for maize this year. They may also have slightly overestimated the size of the 2007/08 maize crop. Hence the slow government recognition of the need for maize imports. 4) As of late September 2008, neither the Government of Zambia (GRZ) nor the private sector have arranged to import maize from South Africa. Trade sources suggest informal imports from Tanzania are helping to relieve the likely shortfall. 5) Zambian policy makers face a delicate balancing act: they need to maintain remunerative prices for farmers, in order to stimulate maize supply response during the coming 2008/09 production season, while at the same time moderating maize meal price increases to protect urban consumers and the many rural households who are net buyers of maize. 6) The time to respond to this balancing act challenge is now rather than later in the marketing season when costs of supplies and transport will increase. 7) Several policy actions offer potential win/win options for balancing these twin concerns: |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, maize, marketing |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-031&r=afr |
| By: | Shewmake, Sharon |
| Abstract: | "With likely long-term changes in rainfall patterns and shifting temperature zones, climate change is expected to increase the frequency of climate-related shocks, such as floods and droughts in Sub-Saharan Africa. For farm households, an increase in the frequency of climate-related income shocks could lead not only to lower expected income, but also to higher income variance, which in turn can cause them to pursue costly risk-coping strategies and to fall below poverty trap thresholds. For this reason, it is important to understand how a changing distribution of risk will lead to increased vulnerability, not just decreased expected income. This brief is based on a paper that uses farm households' responses to climate-related shocks in South Africa's Limpopo River Basin to gauge how farmers are likely to respond to future climate change shocks. The increased frequency and severity of droughts associated with global warming may induce farmers to change their behavior to reduce their risk of negative impacts from future climaterelated shocks. While it is difficult to predict farmers' behavior and how it will affect welfare, coping strategies used in response to shocks today can be used to predict whether and how rural South Africans will cope in the future. The study examines household responses to droughts in 2005 and household vulnerability to future climate change by assessing their probability of falling below an income threshold as a result of future climate-related shocks. Assessing household vulnerability is important because efficient social policy needs to go beyond poverty alleviation in the present to prevent poverty in the future. A poverty reduction strategy that does not distinguish between transient and structural poverty leads to inefficient use of resources, in that it focuses on those who are temporarily poor but may be able to escape poverty on their own, at the expense of those who have a high probability of becoming chronically poor." from text |
| Keywords: | Vulnerability, Climate change, drought, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resbrf:15(2)&r=afr |