|
on Africa |
| By: | Adato,Michelle; Hoddinott,John |
| Abstract: | "Social protection involves policies and programs that protect people against risk and vulnerability, mitigate the impacts of shocks, and support people who suffer from chronic incapacities to secure basic livelihoods. It can also build assets, reducing both short-term and intergenerational transmission of poverty. It includes social insurance (such as health, life, and asset insurance, which may involve contributions from employers and/or beneficiaries); social assistance (mainly cash, food, vouchers, or subsidies); and services (such as maternal and child health and nutrition programs). Interventions that provide training and credit for income-generating activities also have a social protection component. Interest in social protection is growing across Africa, fueled by persistent high rates of poverty and malnutrition; the undermining of livelihoods and family-based support systems by shocks such as the AIDS epidemic; volatile food prices and the calamities of weather and war; extensive evidence that denying children basic nutrition, health, and education has lifelong, irreversible, and intergenerational consequences; and growing evidence of the effectiveness of social protection in low-income countries throughout the world—particularly in contributing to poverty reduction and improved health, nutrition, and education. Approaches vary across regions and countries, with a notable introduction or scale-up of cash transfers for the very poor in southern and East Africa. While many programs have been undertaken on a pilot basis, successful implementation of large-scale social protection programs in Ethiopia and South Africa—each with more than 8 million beneficiaries—has demonstrated that social protection systems are no longer only within the reach of rich countries." from Author's text |
| Keywords: | Social protection, Poverty reduction, Hunger, Cash transfers, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:polbrf:5&r=afr |
| By: | Sehili, Saloua; Wodon, Quentin |
| Abstract: | Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa are confronted with the need to raise tax revenues in order to be able to provide a range of services to their populations. Yet taxes and other government revenues as a proportion of GDP are lowest in the poorest countries that need to expand their services the most. In addition, because of high level of informality in their economies, very-low-income countries obtain a large share of tax revenues through consumption taxes which tend to be more regressive than taxes on incomes levied in richer countries. Such a situation poses a difficult dilemma. Very-low-income countries are trying to increase their tax revenues to provide better services to their populations in need, but at the same time a substantial part of the burden of increased taxation may fall on the poor. Furthermore, because the poor in very-low-income countries are often extremely poor, even small increases in the price of the goods they consume related to an increase in tax rates on those goods may have important negative implications for the households’ ability to meet their basic needs. This implies that government must be especially careful when raising taxes in order to provide social services. The type of household survey-based analysis that can be conducted to inform governments in this area is illustrated in this paper with a case study on Niger. |
| Keywords: | Indirect taxes; social services; poverty; Niger |
| JEL: | E62 I38 D61 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11074&r=afr |
| By: | Adama Konseiga (GREDI, Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | Parental migration is often found to be negatively correlated with child health in Africa, yet the causal mechanisms are poorly understood. The paper uses a dataset that provides information from the respondent parent on child morbidity both in the rural and urban settings. Households first endogenously determine whether they will gain from participating in migration and, if they do, whether they will leave the children behind or not. The final choice is made to ensure the optimal survival chances for the child. This paper contributes to understanding the health consequences of raising the children in the context of increasing urban poverty in Nairobi, Kenya. The findings indicate that households who migrated together with their children in the slums of Nairobi experience higher child morbidity (43 per cent have at least one sick child in the last one month) as compared to households who leave children in their upcountry homes (31 per cent of morbidity rate). Even though children of migrants are safer upcountry, not all households can afford this strategy. Households are able to choose this strategy only if they have a strong social support network in their origin community and/or they are big size households. This is an important finding in targeting the Millennium Development Goals. |
| Keywords: | Childhood morbidity, Split migration, Incidental truncation, Informal settlements Nairobi, Kenya |
| JEL: | C31 D13 I12 R23 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:08-07&r=afr |
| By: | Wouterse, F. S. |
| Abstract: | "This paper applies Gini and concentration coefficient decomposition as well as the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty index and a welfare function to new data from Burkina Faso to test the relationship between long-distance international migration and internal migration within the African continent and inequality, poverty, and social welfare in rural households. Findings support our theoretical expectation that this relationship varies by migrant destination. We find evidence of a negative correlation between internal migration and inequality and a positive correlation between international migration and inequality. International migration, which involves high costs and risks, appears to be mainly accessible to already wealthy households. Comparatively high remittances from this form of migration are associated with greater inequality. We also find that although international migration is associated with a much lower incidence, depth, and severity of poverty, its impact on social welfare is limited because the beneficiaries of international migration do not include the rural poor." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | International migration, Internal migration, Rural households, Poverty, Social welfare, Urban-rural linkages, nonfarm, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:786&r=afr |
| By: | Aureo de Paula (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Gil Shapira (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania); Petra Todd (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Many HIV testing programs in Africa and elsewhere aim to reduce risk-taking behaviors by providing individuals with information about their own HIV status. This paper examines how beliefs about own HIV status affect risky sexual behavior using data from married couples living in three regions of Malawi. Risky behavior is measured as the propensity to engage in extramarital affairs or to not use condoms. The empirical analysis is based on two panel surveys for years 2004 and 2006 from the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP) and from an experimental HIV testing intervention carried out in 2004 that provided randomized incentives for picking up test results. Most individuals participating in the MDICP testing learned that they were HIV negative and a small fraction that they were positive. Controlling for potential endogeneity between beliefs and risk-taking, we find that downward revisions in the subjective belief of being HIV positive lead to decreases in the propensity to engage in extra-marital affairs but have no effect on condom use. These results are generally supported by survey questions that directly elicited from respondents how participating in testing altered their behavior. We show that the estimates provide a lower bound in the presence of measurement error in extra-marital affairs. |
| Keywords: | Beliefs, AIDS, Malawi |
| JEL: | I12 |
| Date: | 2008–10–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:08-035&r=afr |
| By: | Fleming, Euan; Fleming, Pauline |
| Abstract: | The ability of African countries to achieve sustained improvements in agricultural incomes depends on their ability to generate total factor productivity (TFP) change in their agricultural sectors and adjust to movements in agricultural output and input prices. The single factoral terms of trade index measures these changes, calculated as changes in the product of TFP and the agricultural terms of trade. Estimates of the single factoral terms of trade index for the selected commodities over the period 1970-2002 are reported and discussed for 33 African countries for which data sets are available. The index is estimated for producers of coffee, cocoa, copra, palm kernel oil, coconut oil, palm oil, rice, cotton and sugar using annual agricultural sector data. Few countries managed to achieve an increase in the index over this period and it declined in many countries. In the light of the empirical evidence assembled, three broad strategic 2 2 options are considered, covering agricultural trade reform, economic diversification strategies and strategies to improve total factor productivity in commodity production. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, |
| Date: | 2008–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes007:7980&r=afr |
| By: | Nin Pratt, Alejandro; Yu, Bingxin |
| Abstract: | "We analyze the evolution of Sub-Saharan Africa's agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) over the past 40 years, looking for evidence of recent changes in growth patterns using a nonparametric Malmquist index. Our TFP estimates show a remarkable recovery in the performance of Sub-Saharan Africa's agriculture during the 1984–2003 period after a long period of poor performance and decline. That recovery is the consequence of improved efficiency in production resulting from changes in the output structure and an adjustment in the use of inputs, including an overall net reduction in fertilizer use but increased fertilizer use in most of the best-performing countries. Policy changes African countries conducted between the mid-1980s and the second half of the 1990s together with technological innovations available at that time appear to have played an important role in improving agriculture's performance. As TFP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is mainly a result of catching up to the frontier, we expect growth to slow in the coming years unless African countries accelerate the incorporation of innovations into the production process and increase the speed of technical change." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Efficiency, Malmquist index, Total factor productivity, Technical change, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:787&r=afr |
| By: | Deressa, Temesgen; Hassan, R. M.; Alemu, Tekie; Yesuf, Mahmud; Ringler, Claudia |
| Abstract: | "This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers' choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints. Moreover, the analysis reveals that age of the household head, wealth, information on climate change, social capital, and agroecological settings have significant effects on farmers' perceptions of climate change." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Adaptation, Perception on climate change, Agriculture, Climate change, Nile Basin of Ethiopia, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:798&r=afr |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | "Encouraging signs of growth acceleration in Africa may herald a new development era of rapid transformation. In an effort to promote the future success of African transformation, we herein provide an extensive literature review on development economics and empirical observations from successfully transformed countries, along with analytic narratives on the transformations of Thailand and Mexico. To conclude, we derive six key messages for African transformation. We find that the traditional development economics theory is consistent with the transformation practice of successful countries. However, this theory needs to be broadened in light of rising inequalities during transformation. Success vitally depends on agricultural development; early withdrawal of public support away from agriculture slows down transformation, and the resulting inequalities are recognized as a persistent development challenge. Transformation also depends on industrialization strategies, but we find that winner-picking industrialization negatively affects other aspects of development, whereas home-grown, export-oriented industrialization led by private entrepreneurs opens up broader opportunities for sustainable growth. Finally, government support will be required to create a business-promoting environment and to offer incentives for African entrepreneurs to lead growth." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Economic transformation, Agricultural growth, structural change, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:797&r=afr |
| By: | Philip Verwimp; Tom Bundervoet |
| Abstract: | We analyse the effect of civil war on household welfare. Using Burundian panel data for the 1998-2007 period in which we re-interviewed original as well as newly formed households (split-offs), we show that headcount poverty decreased by 3.5 % points when split-off households are taken into account and 1% when splits are left out. Poverty is persistent while prosperity is not, in particular in war-affected areas. We find that 25 war-related deaths or wounded at the village level reduce consumption growth by 13%. We also find that violence afflicted on household members decreases growth whereas membership of rebel groups increases it. Apart from such war-related effects - and controlling for initial levels of consumption - we find that temporarily famine-induced migration and illness decrease growth while good harvests, more split-offs and higher initial levels of education increase it. Good harvests are found to have persistent positive effects on growth. Our results are robust for different household and province fixed effects specifications. |
| Keywords: | consumption, growth, split-off households, civil war, panel data, Africa |
| JEL: | C81 I32 O12 N47 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2008_023&r=afr |
| By: | Mogues, Tewodaj; Morris, Michael; Freinkman, Lev; Adubi, Abimbola; Simeon, Ehui; Nwoko, Chinedum; Taiwo, Olufemi; Nege, Caroline; Okonji, Patrick; Chete, Louis |
| Abstract: | "Public spending on agriculture in Nigeria is exceedingly low. Less than 2 percent of total federal expenditure was allotted to agriculture during 2001 to 2005, far lower than spending in other key sectors such as education, health, and water. This spending contrasts dramatically with the sector's importance in the Nigerian economy and the policy emphasis on diversifying away from oil, and falls well below the 10 percent goal set by African leaders in the 2003 Maputo agreement. Nigeria also falls far behind in agricultural expenditure by international standards, even when accounting for the relationship between agricultural expenditures and national income. The spending that is extant is highly concentrated in a few areas. Three out of 179 programs account for more than 81 percent of federal capital spending, of which nearly three-quarters go to government purchase of agricultural inputs and agricultural outputs alone. The analysis finds that many of the Presidential Initiatives—which differ greatly in target crops, technologies, research, seed multiplication, and distribution—have identical budgetary provisions. This pattern suggests that the needs assessment and costing for these initiatives may have been inadequate, and that decisions may have been based on political considerations rather than economic assessment. Budget execution is also poor. The Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) best practice standard for budget execution is no more than 3 percent discrepancy between budgeted and actual expenditures. In contrast, during the period covered by the study, the Nigerian federal budget execution averaged only 79 percent, meaning 21 percent of the approved budget was never spent. Budget execution at the state and local levels was even less impressive, ranging from 71 percent to 44 percent. However, other sectors showed similar low levels of budget execution, suggesting that the problem is a general one going beyond agriculture. There is an urgent need to improve internal systems for tracking, recording, and disseminating information about public spending in the agriculture sector. Consolidated and up-to-date expenditure data are not available within the Ministry of Agriculture, not even for its own use. Without this information, authorities cannot undertake empirically-based policy analysis, program planning, and impact assessment. There is also a need for clarification of the roles of the three tiers of government in agricultural services delivery. This is important to reduce overlaps and gaps in agricultural interventions and improve efficiency and effectiveness of public investments and service delivery in the sector. Finally, applied research is needed to address critical knowledge gaps in several areas: (i) Spending on fertilizer programs makes up a sizeable portion of overall agricultural spending in Nigeria, yet very little is known about the impact of this spending. (ii) To date, only a small portion of the national grain storage system has been constructed, but if the entire network is completed as planned, the cost will be enormous. Supporting even the current modest level of grain marketing activities is consuming significant amounts of public resources. Is an investment on this order of magnitude desirable? What has been the impact of these investments? (iii) There is a need for an analytical study focusing on the economics of the National Special Program for Food Security (NSPFS). The total cost of NSPFS II is estimated at US$364 million. Detailed financial information about the NSPFS is not publicly available, however, making it difficult to assess whether the considerable investment in NSPFS I generated attractive returns, and whether NSPFS II merits support as currently designed. A rigorous external evaluation is needed to assess the performance of NPSFS and generate information that could be used to make design adjustments." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Public spending, Expenditure policy, Kaduna, Cross River, Bauchi, Public investment, rural areas, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:789&r=afr |
| By: | Jennifer Coates; James Wirth; Fayera Abdissa; Berhanu Wendeferew; Mulugeta Girma |
| Keywords: | agriculture, food policy, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | I38 Q18 |
| Date: | 2008–07–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fsn:wpaper:39&r=afr |
| By: | NWAOBI, GODWIN |
| Abstract: | Information and communication technologies are one of the most pervasive technologies in the world, second only to 'human intelligence' or the human brain. Thus, understanding the factors that determine the diffusion of new technologies across african countries is important to understanding the process of economic development. And whereas, energy is linked with the capacity to perform, the rate at which energy is consumed for the acceleration of the pace of socio-economic activities is regarded as power. Consequently, it will be obvious that the magnitude of the standard of living in any society; the growth and development of such an economy; and its ability to affect the course of events(such as ICT revolution)will be a function of the extent to which its energy(power) resources are developed and utilised. This paper therefore argued for the need to provide assistance in reducing vulnerability and building the capacity of african countries to more widely reap the benefits of the clean development mechanism in areas such as the development of cleaner and renewable energies. Inevitably, this is the critical condition for the sustainability of the emergent e-learning platforms and digital networks in africa. |
| Keywords: | ICT; learning; elearning; development; energy; power; information; communication; solar; electricity; wind; governance; africa; electronics; telecommunications; internet; digital; satellite; renewable energy; gas turbine; power plants; bandwidth; coal; hydro; biomass; steam; transmission; distribution; utilisation |
| JEL: | O30 I20 Q40 O33 D80 |
| Date: | 2008–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11136&r=afr |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Thurlow, James; Diao, Xinshen; Kalinda, Henrietta; Kalinda, Thomson |
| Abstract: | "Zambia has experienced strong economic performance since 1999. However, agriculture has not performed as well as the rest of the economy, and although the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Zambian government, within the framework of the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes the agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive rural development component under Zambia's FNDP, in alignment with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include the achievement of six percent agricultural growth and allocation of at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model results indicate that it is possible for Zambia to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth, but this will require additional growth in all crops and sub-sectors. Zambia cannot rely on only maize or higher-value export crops to achieve this growth target; broader-based agricultural growth, including increases in fisheries and livestock, will be important. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government's total budget on agriculture. In order to meet the CAADP target, the Government of Zambia must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 17–27 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and spend about 8–18 percent of its total expenditure on the sector by 2015. Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy and its growth will result in substantial overall growth in the economy and the household incomes of rural and urban populations, achieving the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth will not be sufficient to meet the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1) of halving poverty by 2015. To achieve this more ambitious target, both agricultural and non-agricultural sectors would need an average annual growth rate of around ten percent per year. These growth requirements are substantial, as are the associated resource requirements. Thus, while the MDG1 target appears to be beyond reach for Zambia, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as its more reasonable growth and expenditure scenarios will still substantially reduce the number of poor people living below the poverty line by 2015, and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Poverty, Public investment, GDP, Millennium Development Goals, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:791&r=afr |
| By: | Nkamleu, Guy Blaise; Sylla, Kalilou; Zonon, Abdoulaye |
| Abstract: | Empirical relationships between the rates of growth and total factor productivity growth, physical input accumulation, as well as institutional and agro-ecological change is evaluated using an international panel data set on 26 African countries and covering the period 1970-2000. The analysis employs the broader framework provided by empirical growth literature and recent developments in TFP measurement. Results suggest a positive evolution of the total factor productivity during the studied period. This positive performance of the productivity of the agricultural sector was due to positive technological progress rather than technology absorption. However, growth accounting computation highlights the fact that factor accumulation accounts for a large share of agricultural output growth and fertilizer has been the most statistically important physical input contributor to agricultural growth. The study also highlights the extent to which agricultural growth contributors vary across countries and regions in relation with different country conditions, institutions and politico-historical factors. |
| Keywords: | Growth accounting; total factor productivity; factor accumulation; capital absorption; africa |
| JEL: | O47 N5 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11102&r=afr |
| By: | Minot,Nicholas |
| Abstract: | "Given that Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest incidence of poverty and malnutrition in the world, the stagnation in per capita grain production there is worrisome. Since 1970, per capita grain production in Sub-Saharan Africa has declined more than 10 percent. Increasing the productivity of staple foodcrops will help poor farmers and consumers, and one of the most sustainable ways to expand food production in Sub-Saharan Africa is to generate new technologies—including staple seed varieties—that are adapted to the constraints of the continent's small-scale farmers. The region thus requires a cost-effective system of seed production and distribution to ensure that appropriate seeds are delivered to farmers. Both the private and public sectors have a role to play in developing the seed sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. Although the private sector can effectively carry out many seed production and distribution activities, for reasons discussed in this brief, private companies acting on their own will not develop and produce optimal amounts of appropriate seeds for Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus the public sector also has a role to play." from Author's text |
| Keywords: | Seed systems, Private sector, Public sector, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:polbrf:6&r=afr |
| By: | Azam, Jean-Paul; Dia, Magueye; Tsimpo, Clarence; Wodon, Quentin |
| Abstract: | The devaluation of the CFA Franc in 1994 generated a public investment boom in Senegal. The increase in public investment was made possible thanks to an improved budgetary situation related to the reduction in real terms of the public wage bill which had been too large for some time. The rise in public investment was subsequently accompanied by a (smaller) increase in private investment due in part to the attractiveness of Senegal as a place to do business within West Africa, at least compared to other West African nations. In turn, higher public, and to some extent private, investment led to higher growth rates and substantial poverty reduction, with the share of the population living in poverty declining from 67.9 to 57.1 percent. Poverty in urban areas was reduced faster than in rural areas, as most of the investment benefited the manufacturing and services sectors. Also, a few years of poor rainfall in the second half of the 1990s coupled with an initial drop in the real prices of crops in the aftermath of the devaluation affected negatively rural incomes. As a result, while virtually all segments of the population (including the rural poor) benefited from improved standards of living in 2001 as compared to 1994, growth was not strictly speaking “pro-poor” because the growth in consumption per equivalent adult in the upper half of the distribution was larger than that observed among the poor. |
| Keywords: | Poverty; Senegal; devaluation; pro-poor |
| JEL: | O24 F43 I32 |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11110&r=afr |
| By: | Ngongi, Namanga |
| Abstract: | "African agriculture is at a crossroads. The current high food prices and the instability they have provoked in several countries have added impetus for African countries to review their agricultural policies and programs. New agricultural policies will have to be more focused on staple food crops and on their main producers—smallholders, most of whom are women. The new policies must remove constraints that impede access by smallholder farmers to the knowledge, technology, and financial services they need to increase farm productivity in a profitable and environmentally sustainable manner. Institutional mechanisms that lower the risks of lending to the agriculture sector and to smallholders in particular should be established and programs developed to leverage financial resources from the commercial banking sector. Governments and the private sector have an opportunity to work together to support the procurement, blending, and packaging of fertilizers. Together they can also support the breeding and multiplication of improved seeds. Government policies should support agro-dealers to ensure that improved seeds and other inputs are available to farmers. The many issues that African countries must address will be beyond the capacity of most countries, even after financial resources in private banks are leveraged. External assistance will be very much needed, especially to develop essential road infrastructure, irrigation, and rural energy. Other issues, including land policy, will also need attention. The road ahead for African agricultural development, especially the attainment of food security, will not be easy. African governments will need to formulate and implement bold pro-poor, pro-smallholder farmer policies that will increase farm productivity, trigger a sustainable green revolution, and end the cycle of food crises in Africa." from Text |
| Keywords: | Food prices, Poverty reduction, Globalization, Food security Developing countries, Agricultural systems, trade, Markets, Natural resources, World food situation, Social protection, Science and technology, Nutrition, Capacity strengthening, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:anress:2008essay3&r=afr |
| By: | Gruère, Guillaume P.; Sengupta, Debdatta |
| Abstract: | "South Africa is the only country in Africa that has both adopted genetically modified (GM) crops and developed a functional biosafety system to manage any risks related to the use of GM products. But it is also one of the only countries that trade both GM and non-GM crops, despite being surrounded by countries banning the use of GM products. In this paper, we analyze the marketing and trade policies for GM products in South Africa that have been successful in the past and critically review recent reforms to these policies. By providing trade volume estimates of potentially GM products, we show that South Africa is effectively a significant exporter and importer of both GM and non-GM products. We then show that although its import approval system has been effective, recent reforms have allowed regulators to use biosafety regulations as an apparent nontariff barrier to trade. On the export side, South Africa has been able to adapt to each specific demand, but potential export risks have gradually entered the decisionmaking process through the inclusion of socioeconomic considerations. On the marketing side, we show that although non-GM maize segregation has been successful so far, it has generated some adjustment costs and could be improved. At the same time, by excluding all current GM products, the GM food labeling regulation in place has not been fully satisfactory and is bound to change; it could be heading toward a strict mandatory system, despite limited public demand. Therefore, there is a clear movement toward more costly and rigid trade and marketing regulations for GM products in South Africa, with local special-interest groups having an increasing influence on decisionmaking. Yet, the past 10 years have demonstrated that South Africa's success in taking advantage of biotechnologies under changing global conditions stems mainly from its adaptation capacity and the flexibility of its system. Based on the analysis presented in this paper, we provide six policy recommendations to improve rather than rigidify market and trade regulations—policies that would allow South Africa to better adapt to global changes, to manage risks rigorously but efficiently, and to take advantage of safe and potentially promising new GM technologies." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Trade regulations, Genetically modified crops, Marketing, trade policies, Genetically modified products, Biosafety, Genetic resources, Science and technology, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:796&r=afr |
| By: | Johannes Gräb (Georg-August-Universität Göttingen / Germany); Michael Grimm (ISS, The Hague / The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | The literature shows that regional disparities in growth and poverty are often relatively high, that these regional disparities do not necessarily disappear as the economies grow and develop and that these disparities are itself in many cases an important driver of the overall performance of an economy. In this paper we make use of the advantage of a multilevel random coefficient model to explain spatial disparities in incomes among Burkinab`e households. Our findings show that it is not a geographical concentration of people with poor endowments that make areas poor in Burkina Faso. Household income disparities are largely driven by differences in neighborhood endowments and to a smaller extent by provincial or regional characteristics. We conclude that the policy should target small scale geographical units, such as villages. Providing infrastructure, enhancing the functioning of labor markets and fostering demand for education can compensate for climatical disadvantages. |
| Keywords: | Spatial inequality, poverty, multilevel modeling, decomposition, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | C21 I32 O12 R12 |
| Date: | 2008–07–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:iaidps:173&r=afr |
| By: | GASMI, Farid; IVALDI, Marc; RECUERO, Laura |
| JEL: | C31 D12 D40 L96 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ide:wpaper:9593&r=afr |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Thurlow, James; Diao, Xinshen; Kebba, Allen; Ofwono, Nelson |
| Abstract: | "Over the past two decades, Uganda has experienced strong economic growth. However, agriculture has not performed as well as the rest of the economy in recent years, and while the incidence of poverty has declined, it is still substantially higher in rural rather than urban areas. The Ugandan government, within the framework of its Plan for the Modernization of Agriculture (PMA) and the Prosperity for All (PFA) initiative, and in support of the upcoming National Development Plan, is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes the agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive rural development component under Uganda's National Development Plan in alignment with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include achievement of six percent agricultural growth and allocation of at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the agricultural sector. Our CGE modeling results indicate that it is possible for Uganda to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth, but this will require additional growth in a number of crops and sub-sectors. Uganda cannot rely on a few crops or sub-sectors to achieve its growth targets. Broader-based agricultural growth, including increases in fisheries and livestock, will be important if this target is to be achieved. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government's total budget on agriculture. In fact, even under a more optimistic and efficient spending scenario, the Government of Uganda will have to increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 25.3 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and account for at least 14 percent of its total expenditure by 2015. While Uganda is currently on track to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015, achieving the CAADP growth target should remain a high priority, since it will substantially reduce the number of people living below the poverty line and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Poverty, Public investment, GDP, Millennium Development Goals, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:790&r=afr |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Thurlow, James; Diao, Xinshen; McCool, Christen; Simtowe, Franklin |
| Abstract: | "Malawi has experienced modest economic growth over the last decade and a half. However, agricultural growth has been particularly erratic, and while the incidence of poverty has declined, it still remains high. The Malawian government, within the framework of the Agricultural Development Plan (ADP), is in the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), which provides an integrated framework of development priorities aimed at restoring agricultural growth, rural development and food security. This paper analyzes agricultural growth and investment options that can support the development of a comprehensive agricultural development strategy consistent with the principles and objectives of the CAADP, which include achieving six percent agricultural growth and allocating at least ten percent of budgetary resources to the sector. Economic modeling results indicate that it is possible for Malawi to reach the CAADP target of six percent agricultural growth. However, achievement of these goals will require additional growth in most crops and agricultural sub-sectors, meaning that Malawi cannot rely solely on growth in maize or tobacco to reach this growth target. Broader-based agricultural growth, including growth in pulses and horticultural crops, will be important if this target is to be achieved. So, too, is meeting the Maputo declaration of spending at least ten percent of the government's total budget on agriculture. In fact, even under a more optimistic and efficient spending scenario, the Government of Malawi must increase its spending on agriculture in real value terms by about 20 percent per year between 2006 and 2015, and account for at least 24 percent of its total expenditure by 2015 if the CAADP goals are to be met. Although agriculture has strong linkages to the rest of the economy, with agricultural growth typically resulting in substantial overall growth in the economy and rising incomes in rural and urban areas, simply achieving the CAADP target of six percent will not be sufficient to halve poverty by 2015, i.e. achieving the first Millennium Development Goal (MDG1). To achieve this more ambitious target, agriculture and non-agriculture would need an average annual growth rate above seven percent. This growth requirement is substantial, as is the associated resource requirements, indicating that the MDG1 target may be beyond reach. However, achieving the CAADP target should remain a priority, as this goal has more reasonable growth and expenditure requirements, and will substantially reduce the number of people living below the poverty line by 2015 and significantly improve the well-being of both rural and urban households." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, GDP, Poverty, Public investment, MDGs, Development strategies, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:794&r=afr |