|
on Africa |
| By: | Fan, Shenggen; Johnson, Michael; Saurkar, Anuja; Makombe, Tsitsi |
| Abstract: | "This paper proposes a simple methodology to estimate the agricultural spending that will be required to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of halving poverty by 2015 (MDG1) in 30 sub-Saharan African countries. This method uses growth-poverty and growth-expenditure elasticities to estimate the financial resources required to meet the MDG1, considering both the direct and indirect impacts of agricultural spending on poverty reduction. The paper attempts to address a key knowledge gap by improving estimation of MDG costs at both the regional and country levels." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Poverty, Millennium Development Goals, Investment, Sub-Saharan Africa, Agriculture, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:751&r=afr |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | "Today's resource boom in Africa, driven by Asian economic growth, offers new opportunities for resource-rich African countries. Contrary to the experience of previous booms, however, most mining profits now accrue to foreign companies, leaving little room for governments to use revenues for pro-poor investments or to mitigate adverse distributional impacts. Taking Zambia as a case study, this paper shows that despite privatization, Dutch disease remains a valid concern and may hamper economic diversification, worsen income distribution, and undermine poverty reduction strategies. Mining royalties must, therefore, be increased and used to finance growth-inducing investments that encourage pro-poor economic diversification, else many African countries will remain caught in a resource trap." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Dutch disease, Resource booms, Privatization, Income distribution, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:747&r=afr |
| By: | Nhemachena, Charles; Hassan, Rashid M. |
| Abstract: | "Adaptation to climate change involves changes in agricultural management practices in response to changes in climate conditions. It often involves a combination of various individual responses at the farm-level and assumes that farmers have access to alternative practices and technologies available in the region. This study examines farmer adaptation strategies to climate change in Southern Africa based on a cross-section database of three countries (South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe) collected as part of the Global Environment Facility/World Bank (GEF/WB) Climate Change and African Agriculture Project. The study describes farmer perceptions to changes in long-term temperature and precipitation as well as various farm-level adaptation measures and barriers to adaptation at the farm household level. A multivariate discrete choice model is used to identify the determinants of farm-level adaptation strategies. Results confirm that access to credit and extension and awareness of climate change are some of the important determinants of farm-level adaptation. An important policy message from these results is that enhanced access to credit, information (climatic and agronomic) as well as to markets (input and output) can significantly increase farm-level adaptation. Government policies should support research and development on appropriate technologies to help farmers adapt to changes in climatic conditions. Examples of such policy measures include crop development, improving climate information forecasting, and promoting appropriate farm-level adaptation measures such as use of irrigation technologies." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Adaptation, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:714&r=afr |
| By: | Yoshiko Matsumoto-Izadifar |
| Abstract: | The recent expansion of African horticultural exports has proven that business is changing on the continent. The experience of Senegal and Mali suggests that the two countries are facing major challenges in strengthening policy co-ordination, improving business environment and realising market opportunities. Deepening public-private dialogue will help address these challenges. * This Policy Insights introduces the African Economic Outlook 2007. |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:43-en&r=afr |
| By: | Smith, Lisa C.; Wiesmann, Doris |
| Abstract: | "This paper uses data from national household expenditure surveys to explore whether food insecurity is more severe in South Asia or Sub-Saharan Africa. It employs two indicators of the diet quantity dimension of food insecurity, or the inability to access sufficient food: the prevalence of food energy deficiency and the prevalence of severe food energy deficiency. It also employs two indicators of the diet quality dimension, indicating lack of access to nutritious food: the prevalence of low diet diversity and the percent of energy from staple foods. It finds the regions' food energy deficiency prevalences to be quite close (51 percent in South Asia, 57 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa). However, the prevalence of severe food energy deficiency, which is more life threatening, is higher in Sub-Saharan Africa (51 percent versus 35 percent in South Asia). From a diet quality standpoint, the regions appear to suffer from a comparable and high reliance on staple foods in the diet to the neglect of foods rich in protein and micronutrients, but that Sub-Saharan Africa may be doing worse, as reflected in less diverse diets. The results confirm that both regions suffer from deep food insecurity problems but point to Sub-Saharan Africa as the region with the more severe problem, particularly when it comes to the diet quantity dimension of food insecurity. In deciding which region should be given greater emphasis in the international allocation of scarce development resources, the fact that the numbers of people affected by food insecurity are higher in South Asia should be taken into consideration." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | food security, Food energy deficiency, Diet quality, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:712&r=afr |
| By: | Georg Caspary; Céline Kauffmann |
| Abstract: | Limited capacity to pay, large infrastructure needs and a huge backlog in the construction of sanitation facilities make recourse to cross-subsidies and government-funded subsidies a necessity in Africa. * This Policy Insights introduces the African Economic Outlook 2007. |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:42-en&r=afr |
| By: | Abdeslam Marfouk (DULBEA-CERT, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the determinants of highly-skilled emigration from Africa with recent original data set on international migration. The analysis shows that 10 out of the 53 African countries have lost more than 35 per cent of the their tertiary educated labor force and countries such as Cape Verde (68 percent), Gambia (63 percent), Seychelles (56 percent), Maurice (56 percent) and Sierra Leone (53 percent) suffered from a massive brain drain. Regression models reveal that economic and noneconomic considerations have a strong impact on the African brain drain. This study finds that the degree of fractionalization (ethnic, linguistic and religious) at origin countries, jobs opportunities at destination countries, selective immigration policies, wage gap, geographical distance, former colonial links, and linguistic proximity between countries of origin and destination are the main forces driving highly-skilled emigration from Africa. |
| Keywords: | International Migration, Human Capital, African Brain Drain, Labor Mobility |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dul:wpaper:08-07rs&r=afr |
| By: | Davis, Kristin; Ekboir, Javier; Mekasha, Wendmsyamregne; Ochieng, Cosmas M.O.; Spielman, David J.; Zerfu, Elias |
| Abstract: | "This paper examines the role of postsecondary agricultural education and training (AET) in Sub-Saharan Africa in the context of the region's agricultural innovation systems. Specifically, the paper looks at how AET in Sub-Saharan Africa can contribute to agricultural development by strengthening innovative capabilities, or the ability to introduce new products and processes that are socially or economically relevant to smallholder farmers and other agents in the agricultural sector. Using AET in Ethiopia and Mozambique as case studies, the paper argues that while AET is conventionally viewed in terms of its role in building human and scientific capital, it also has a vital role to play in building the capacity of organizations and individuals to transmit and adapt new applications of existing information, new products and processes, and new organizational cultures and behaviors. The paper emphasizes the importance of improving AET systems by strengthening the innovative capabilities of AET organizations and professionals; changing organizational cultures, behaviors, and incentives; and building innovation networks and linkages. The paper draws on two main sources of information: the emerging literature on innovation systems in developing-country agriculture, and data gathered from secondary sources and semi-structured key informant interviews conducted in Ethiopia and Mozambique in late 2006. The paper offers several recommendations that can contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of AET's contribution to agricultural innovation and development. Key reforms include aligning the mandates of AET organizations with national development aspirations by promoting new educational programs that are more strategically attuned to the different needs of society; inducing change in the cultures of AET organizations through the introduction of educational programs and linkages beyond the formal AET system; and strengthening individual and organizational capacity by improving incentives to forge stronger linkages between AET and diverse user communities, knowledge sources, and private industry." - from authors' abstract. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural education and training, Innovation systems, Sub-Saharan Africa, case studies, Small farmers, agricultural sector, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:736&r=afr |
| By: | Zhang, Xiaobo; Rockmore, Marc; Chamberlin, Jordan |
| Abstract: | "This paper considers vulnerability reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from a more aggregated macro viewpoint. We focus on risk related to agriculture, since vulnerability and agriculture are intimately linked in SSA due to the location of the poor, their dependence on agriculture and the inherent risks of an agricultural livelihood. We argue that agricultural growth is one of the most effective means for improving permanent incomes and reducing vulnerability. However, agriculture is not homogeneous, and the inherent risks vary across countries and regions. Therefore, we also discuss appropriate investment strategies and policy instruments for different sets of risks." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Vulnerability, Typology, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:734&r=afr |
| By: | Andrea Goldstein; Federica Marzo |
| Abstract: | The long-term decline in political instability continued in 2006 and armed conflicts, though still widespread, have diminished. Multiparty elections have taken place in several African countries and progress towards participative democracy is encouraging. Progress in economic governance is still insufficient, with corruption continuing to hamper socio-economic development. |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:45-en&r=afr |
| By: | Lourdes Diaz Olvera (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat); Didier Plat (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat); Pascal Pochet (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat) |
| Abstract: | In Sub-Saharan Africa the cost of transport faced by city dwellers, particularly the poor, tends to add to their travel and economic difficulties. Knowledge of the burden of transport expenditure in the household budget seems essential for passenger transport policy formulation in order to improve their travel conditions and social equity. <br />The literature review and the three case studies (Dar es Salaam, Niamey, Ouagadougou) show that estimates of travel expenditure are partially conditioned by survey data collection methodologies and by the choice of equivalence scales used to compare the standard of living of households. According to consumption and expenditure survey data, the relative amount spent on transport increases as household expenditure rises. Conversely, the share of transport decreases as income rises when analysing travel survey data. The sensitivity to the equivalence scale is tested for several transport expenditure indicators: the share of travel expenditure by household budget quintile, the concentration indices for public and private household transport expenditure and the average monthly expenditure per person on public and private transport. Results also highlight the fact that transport is a major component of household expenditure, that there are considerable inequalities between households and that regular use of motorized transport is unaffordable for poor populations. These findings have implications for both improving expenditure data collection methodologies in the transport area and formulating pro-poor urban policies. |
| Keywords: | Transport expenditure ; Urban transport ; Survey methodology ; Equivalence scale ; Poverty ; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00264231_v1&r=afr |
| By: | Céline Kauffmann |
| Abstract: | Africa is unlikely to reach the drinking water and sanitation Millennium Development Goals. Disparities among countries are large, and the deficit in sanitation is greater than that for drinking water. Serious reforms in institutions, legal frameworks, and policies are needed. |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaac:41-en&r=afr |
| By: | Thomas Harjes; Luca Antonio Ricci |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within an inflation targeting framework, by incorporating forward-looking behavior of private agents and of the monetary authority. The model is able to display important empirical features of the monetary transmission mechanism that have been found in other studies. It helps to integrate the short-term inflation outlook into a consistent medium-term framework and to design the policy response for various shocks that affect inflation. |
| Keywords: | Inflation targeting , South Africa , Inflation , Energy prices , Exchange rate instability , Demand , |
| Date: | 2008–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:08/48&r=afr |
| By: | Thurlow, James |
| Abstract: | "Despite its strong growth record, Botswana faces two prominent development challenges: the onslaught of HIV/AIDS and the slowdown in diamond mining. This study estimates the growth and distributional impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and considers its implications for the country's development prospects, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium and microsimulation model that accounts for the cost of treatment. The results of this analysis indicate that HIV/AIDS reduces GDP growth by 1.6 percent, increases the absolute poverty headcount by 1.5 percentage points and disproportionately hurts labor-intensive manufacturing. Therefore, while mining has dominated the recent slowdown in Botswana's growth, the present findings suggest that HIV/AIDS is undermining economic diversification. Although providing treatment is projected to reclaim a quarter of the lost growth and a third of the poverty caused by the pandemic, the fiscal burden of treatment will constrain diversification, thus underscoring Botswana's need for development assistance. Furthermore, focusing resources toward treatment may worsen inequality, since the primary beneficiaries will be middle-income and urban households. Therefore, while HIV/AIDS is undermining Botswana's success story, both unemployment and a stagnant rural economy will remain binding constraints against further pro-poor development." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Growth, Poverty, Economic development, HIV/AIDS, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:697&r=afr |
| By: | Yamauchi, Futoshi |
| Abstract: | "The institution of marriage plays some role in determining one's risk of exposure to HIV. Since the transmission of HIV in the population is mainly through sexual activity, avoiding infection depends on risk-avoiding behavior. Consistently, empirical results show that excess mortality is concentrated in not-yet married adults aged 20-39 among both men and women. Therefore, the choice of when and who to marry appears to be related to risk of exposure. The objective of this paper is to determine the effect that schooling has on HIV/AIDS excess mortality, using panel data from South Africa. This paper tests the hypothesis that schooling affects when and who one marries and thus impacts the risk of mortality from HIV/AIDS. The effect could be negative or positive. On the one hand, since educated agents have incentives to secure returns to their human capital in the future, more education implies earlier marriage, given that the marriage institution effectively decreases the HIV-related mortality risk. On the other hand, education increases the opportunity costs of marriage especially for women, who need to increase their time spent in the household. Thus, schooling may increase mortality risks due to the increased risk of HIV infection... Results show that schooling increases excess mortality among women, but not among men... In sum, schooling increases the opportunity cost of marriage for women, which delays marriage and increases their mortality risks in high HIV-prevalence societies, but has the opposite effect on men. Our analysis demonstrated the need to integrate our understandings of the marriage market, the labor market, schooling investments, and youth behavior to identify the determinants of AIDS-related excess mortality." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Marriage, Schooling, Excess mortality, HIV/AIDS, Gender, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:691&r=afr |
| By: | Breisinger, Clemens; Diao, Xinshen; Thurlow, James; Yu, Bingxin; Kolavalli, Shashidhara |
| Abstract: | "Ghana is an emerging success story in Africa and in a couple of years will become the first African country to achieve the first Millennium Development Goal of halving its national poverty rate. The government of Ghana has therefore extended its development vision and recently declared the goal of reaching middle-income-country (MIC) status by 2015. To analyze possible pathways and implications of achieving MIC status, this paper examines other countries' experiences on their way to becoming MICs and emphasizes the important role of growth acceleration, export diversification, and economic structural change in the transformation process. The paper further analyzes Ghana's growth options and their structural implications using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model recently developed for Ghana. The results of the model simulation suggest that Ghana's annual GDP growth rate must accelerate from the recent 5.5 percent to 7.6 percent to achieve MIC status by 2015. Unlike in other countries, agriculture in Ghana is likely to remain the mainstay of growth and export earnings, while the role of manufacturing growth in achieving MIC status may be constrained by the manufacturing sector's dependency on agricultural inputs and small size. Services may not become the prime mover of accelerated growth, but improved efficiency in trade, transport, and business services will be a key for growth acceleration in other sectors." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Growth and development, Middle income country, Applied general equilibrium modeling, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:750&r=afr |
| By: | You, Liangzhi; Wood, Stanley; Wood-Sichra, Ulrike |
| Abstract: | "Agricultural production statistics reported at country or sub-national geopolitical scales are used in a wide range of economic analyses, and spatially explicit (geo-referenced) production data are increasingly needed to support improved approaches to the planning and implementation of agricultural development. However, it is extremely challenging to compile and maintain collections of sub-national crop production data, particularly for poorer regions of the world. Large gaps exist in our knowledge of the current geographic distribution and spatial patterns of crop performance, and these gaps are unlikely to be filled in the near future. Regardless, the spatial scale of many sub-national statistical reporting units remains too coarse to capture the patterns of spatial heterogeneity in crop production and performance that are likely to be important from a policy and investment planning perspective. To fill these spatial data gaps, we have developed and applied a meso-scale model for the spatial disaggregation of crop production. Using a cross-entropy approach, our model makes plausible pixel-scale assessment of the spatial distribution of crop production within geopolitical units (e.g. countries or sub-national provinces and districts). The pixel-scale allocations are performed through the compilation and judicious fusion of relevant spatially explicit data, including production statistics, land use data, satellite imagery, biophysical crop “suitability” assessments, population density, and distance to urban centers, as wells as any prior knowledge about the spatial distribution of individual crops. The development, application and validation of a prior version of the model using data from Brazil strongly suggested that our spatial allocation approach shows considerable promise. This paper describes efforts to generate crop distribution maps for Sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2000 using this approach. Apart from the empirical challenge of applying the approach across many countries, the application includes three significant model improvements, namely (1) the ability to cope with production data sources that provided different degrees of spatial disaggregation for different crops within a single country; (2) the inclusion of a digital map of irrigation intensity as a new input layer; and (3) increased disaggregation of rainfed production systems. Using the modified spatial allocation model, we generated 5-minute (approximately 10-km) resolution grid maps for 20 major crops across Sub-Saharan Africa, namely barley, dry beans, cassava, cocoa, coffee, cotton, cowpeas, groundnuts, maize, millet, oil palm, plantain, potato, rice, sorghum, soybeans, sugar cane, sweet potato, wheat, and yam. The approach provides plausible results but also highlights the need for much more reliable input data for the region, especially with regard to sub-national production statistics and satellite-based estimates of cropland extent and intensity." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Cross entropy, Spatial allocation, Agricultural production, crop suitability, Geographic information systems, Satellite image, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:725&r=afr |
| By: | Okello, Julius Juma; Narrod, Clare; Roy, Devesh |
| Abstract: | "Many African countries have moved into the production of non-traditional agricultural products, in an effort to diversify their exports and increase foreign currency earnings. However, in order to access developed country markets and urban domestic markets, these products must meet food safety requirements, including protocols relating to pesticide residues, field and pack house operations, and traceability. Faced with stringent food safety requirements, companies that establish production centers in low-income countries might exclude poor farmers, thus negatively impacting the poor. We herein study this issue in the case of the green bean export sectors in three African countries: Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia. In the short-term, stringent food safety standards have screened out smallholders in all these countries, excluding them from the green bean export chain. However, some institutional arrangements have helped support the smallholders who continue to function in the export-oriented green bean supply chains. In particular, public-private partnerships have played a key role in creating farm-to-fork linkages that can satisfy market demands for food safety while retaining smallholders in the supply chain. Furthermore, organized producer groups capable of monitoring their own food safety requirements through collective action have become attractive to buyers who are looking for ways to ensure traceability and reduce transaction costs." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | International food safety standards, Small farmers, Supply chains, Agricultural trade, Public-private partnerships, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:737&r=afr |
| By: | Pender, John; Alemu, Dawit |
| Abstract: | "In this paper, we develop a theoretical farm household model of food crop production and marketing decisions, derive testable hypotheses concerning the determinants of these decisions, and test these hypotheses, using data on cereal production and marketing collected from a nationally representative survey of 7,186 farm households in Ethiopia. Focusing on production and marketing decisions for teff and maize, the two most important crops in Ethiopia, we find that most producers of these crops are either autarkic or net buyers (especially for maize) and that net buyers and autarkic households are poorer in many respects than net sellers. This implies that interventions to increase cereal productivity will favorably affect distribution for most producers. The econometric analysis shows that increasing production of teff and maize is the most important factor contributing to increased sales, and that increased smallholder access to roads, land, livestock, farm equipment, and traders is key to enabling increased smallholder production and commercialization of these crops." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Smallholder production, Small farmers, household consumption, Market access, Commercial behavior, Market participation, Cereal crops, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:745&r=afr |
| By: | Ueyama, Mika |
| Abstract: | "A tremendous increase in the number of orphans associated with a sharp rise in prime-age adult mortality due to AIDS has become a serious problem in Sub-Saharan Africa. In fact, more than 30 percent of school-aged children have lost at least one parent in Malawi. Lack of investments in human capital and adverse conditions during childhood are often associated with lower living standards in the future. Therefore, if orphans face an increased risk of poverty, exploitation, malnutrition, and poorer access to health care and schooling, early intervention is critical so as to avoid the potential poverty trap. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of orphanhood/parental death on children's mortality risks, migration behaviors, and schooling outcomes, by using household panel data from Malawi, which has the eighth-highest HIV prevalence rates in the world. A number of studies have analyzed the relationship between parental death and children's school enrollment, but very few have considered mortality and mobility of orphans. This study uses the Malawi Complementary Panel Survey (CPS) conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and another institution between January 2000 and July 2004. Since these panel data do not track individuals that move to other households, we take into account sample attritions of children. This study uses three estimation methodologies to explore different aspects of impacts. First, we analyze regression models with controls for various sets of household and child characteristics and for village fixed effects to examine heterogeneous impacts of orphanhood across different types of households. Second, we employ household fixed-effect models to test the differential effects of orphanhood on welfare outcomes among different types of orphans living in the same household. Third, we examine the impact of recent parental death—parental death between 2000 and 2004—on schooling outcomes. Empirical results show that maternal orphans, as well as double orphans, tend to face higher mortality risks and lower schooling outcomes than paternal and non-orphans do. This is especially so for boys. Similarly, maternal and double orphans tend to move to other households more frequently. Compared to adolescent orphans, the impact on younger orphans who enrolled in school after the introduction of universal free primary education in 1994 is more muted, suggesting that free primary education policies may have mitigated adverse shocks from parental death. More interestingly, the impacts of orphanhood on schooling outcomes are significantly gender-dependent: boys face severer negative impacts of being orphans than girls do. These empirical results are robust to sample attrition due to mortality and mobility." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Orphans, Mortality, HIV/AIDS, Mobility, Sample attrition, Education, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:710&r=afr |
| By: | Falck-Zepeda, Jose; Horna, Daniela; Smale, Melinda |
| Abstract: | "Cotton is the largest source of export receipts of several West African countries. Statistics however show a decreasing tendency in cotton yields and an increasing tendency in pesticide use. Under this circumstances there appear to be potential payoffs from the use of biotechnology products in the farming systems of the region. In this study we estimate different scenarios for the potential deployment of insect resistant cotton in selected countries in West Africa (WA). We use an economic surplus model augmented with a more rigorous sensitivity analysis of model parameters. Hypothetical scenarios of Bt cotton adoption in WA are simulated and single point values of model parameters are substituted with probability distributions. The scenarios include: no adoption in WA; adoption of existing varieties; adoption of WA varieties backcrossed with private sector lines; and fluctuating adoption patterns. According to the simulations, the total net benefits of adopting Bt seem to be small even after including the innovator surplus who accrues a larger share of the benefits. In contrast the WA countries included in the evaluation are worse off if they decide no to adopt Bt cotton. These results are in part explained by the conservative assumptions taken. The adoption pattern and the length of the adoption period affect the share of benefits earned by producers as compared to innovators. This study provides tools and information that can be used to build greater confidence in the process of setting agricultural research investment priorities." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Economic impacts, Bt-cotton, Economic surplus model, Economic surplus, Risk, Probability distributions, Impact assessment, Net benefits, biotechnology, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:718&r=afr |
| By: | Ueyama, Mika |
| Abstract: | "With poverty studies having shifted their focus from household poverty to individual poverty, a number of studies have started to examine intrahousehold resource allocation, especially gender bias within the household as potential causes of poverty. The literature has highlighted the existence of gender inequalities in South Asia, attributed to strong preferences for male offspring stemming from cultural and traditional customs. Only a few studies focused on the regional difference in the extent of gender bias and its response to income growth. To fill a void in previous studies, this study analyzes regional differences in gender discrimination, taking into account time-series variations. Furthermore, we test whether economic factors are responsible for gender bias in child mortality. There are two main objectives in this study. First, through a comprehensive literature review and a careful treatment of data compilation, regional features and recent trends in gender bias in children's health outcomes are updated. We find strong evidence of severe disparity in child health against girls in South Asia; in contrast, no such anti-female gender bias exists in Sub-Saharan Africa. Second, this paper empirically tests the relationship between gender biases in child mortality and income growth using carefully-compiled new country-level panel data, paying attention to the possibility that such relationship differs between regions and changes over time. To investigate the relationship, two types of data sets are used: (1) new cross-country panel data of childhood mortality rates by sex, collected from various sources of macro statistics, such as DHS stat and WHO statistics; and (2) our own estimates for age-specific child mortality rates of children, constructed from the retrospective information on birth and death histories included in micro data of each round of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). The empirical result suggests that income growth is correlated with the reduction of the anti-female bias in childhood mortality in most regions of the developing world—including South Asia. This result is reasonable, since income growth leads to an increase in nutrition intake (food consumption) and in health related inputs. In sharp contrast, the regression result does not show any significant correlation between gender biases in child health outcomes and income growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. While previous studies focused on the severe gender bias in South Asia, this study examined the correlation between income growth and gender bias and found a new dimension of regional contrast between Sub-Saharan Africa and other regions." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Gender bias, Intrahousehold resource allocation, Childhood mortality, Sub-Saharan Africa, Developing countries, Poverty reduction, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:739&r=afr |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Fekadu, Belay; Haggblade, Steven; Seyoum Taffesse, Alemayehu; Wamisho, Kassu; Yu, Bingxin |
| Abstract: | "Accelerating growth and poverty reduction, and the ultimate achievement of structural transformation, are the critical policy challenges in present day Ethiopia. This paper examines relevant growth options in terms of their impact on overall growth and poverty reduction in the country. It deploys a fixed-price semi-input-output model and a flexible-price economy-wide multi-market model for that purpose. The paper finds that agricultural growth can induce higher overall growth and faster poverty reduction than non-agricultural growth, although the latter can also have large growth effects in some cases. Among sub-sectors within agriculture, staple crops have stronger growth linkages. Decomposition of these effects also reveals that consumption linkages are much stronger than production linkages, i.e., the impact of increased consumption demand due to growth (agricultural and non-agricultural) is much larger than that of the corresponding expansion in input demand. Moreover, non-agricultural sectors have to grow in order to match growing supply of agricultural products and increasing demand for non-agricultural products. Otherwise, falling relative prices of agricultural products may dampen the realized gains in growth and poverty reduction." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Poverty reduction, Agricultural growth, Linkages, Staple food crops, non-agricultural sector, agricultural products, Prices, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:695&r=afr |
| By: | Byerlee, Derek; Spielman, David J.; Alemu, Dawit; Gautam, Madhur |
| Abstract: | Dawit Alemu: DCA, Ethiopia |
| Keywords: | Cereal crops, Agricultural development, Agricultural extension work, Fertilizers, Seed industry and trade Developing countries, Public investment, Food policy, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:707&r=afr |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; Nkonya, Ephraim; Okecho, Geresom; Pender, John; Nahdy, Silim; Mugarura, Samuel; Kayobyo, Godfrey |
| Abstract: | "The National Agricultural Advisory Services (NAADS) program of Uganda is an innovative public-private extension service delivery approach, with the goal of increasing market oriented agricultural production by empowering farmers to demand and control agricultural advisory services. Although initial evaluations of NAADS have been quite favourable, these evaluations have been primary qualitative in nature. This study quantifies the initial impacts of NAADS in the districts and sub-counties where the program was operating by 2005. It is based on descriptive analyses of results of a survey of 116 farmer groups and 894 farmers in sixteen districts where the program was operating at the time and four districts where NAADS had not yet begun operating to control for factors that may have contributed to differing initial conditions among the communities. Based on observed differences across the NAADS and non-NAADS sub-counties, it appears that the NAADS program is having substantial positive impacts on the availability and quality of advisory services provided to farmers, promoting adoption of new crop and livestock enterprises as well improving adoption and use of modern agricultural production technologies and practices. NAADS also appears to have promoted greater use of post-harvest technologies and commercial marketing of commodities, consistent with its mission to promote more commercially-oriented agriculture. Despite positive effects of NAADS on adoption of improved production technologies and practices, no significant differences were found in yield growth between NAADS and non-NAADS sub-counties for most crops, reflecting the still low levels of adoption of these technologies even in NAADS sub-counties, as well as other factors affecting productivity. However, NAADS appears to have helped farmers to avoid the large declines in farm income that affected most farmers between 2000 and 2004, due more to encouraging farmers to diversify into profitable new farming enterprises such as groundnuts, maize and rice than to increases in productivity caused by NAADS. NAADS appears to be having more success in promoting adoption of improved varieties of crops and some other yield enhancing technologies than in promoting improved soil fertility management. This raises concern about the sustainability of productivity increases that may occur, since such increases may lead to more rapid soil nutrient mining unless comparable success in promoting improved soil fertility management is achieved. Continued emphasis on improving the market environment, promoting adoption of more remunerative crop enterprises, and applied agronomic research identifying more effective ways to profitably combine inorganic and organic soil fertility measures in different crop systems can help to address this problem. Shortage of capital and credit facilities was often cited by farmers as a critical constraint facing them, in addition to scarcity of agricultural inputs, lack of adequate farmland, unfavorable weather patterns and problems of pests and diseases. These emphasize that the quality of advisory services is not the only important factor influencing technology adoption and productivity, and the need for complementary progress in other areas, especially development of the rural financial system. Implications are drawn for enterprise targeting and ensuring sustainability of improvements in productivity, as well as for designing and implementing service provision programs in other parts of the Uganda and in other countries." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Impact assessment, Agricultural extension, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:724&r=afr |
| By: | Thurlow, James; Kiringai, Jane; Gautam, Madhur |
| Abstract: | "Kenya's economy is relatively diverse, with both agricultural and industrial potential. However, the economy has performed poorly over the last decade, and poverty and inequality have risen. This paper examines the impact of alternative growth paths and rural investments on poverty using an economy-wide model. It finds that if Kenya continues along its current growth path, its economy will have to grow by more than 10 percent per year over the coming decade to meet the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of halving poverty by 2015. Therefore, Kenya must search for alternative sources of poverty-reducing growth. The results of the model indicate that poverty is unlikely to decline significantly without an acceleration of agricultural growth. Growth in agriculture is found to benefit both urban and rural households, whereas industry-led growth benefits a smaller segment of the urban population, thus exacerbating inequality. Kenya's current Economic Recovery Strategy, however, is not optimistic about agriculture's growth potential, focusing more heavily on industry-led growth. Therefore, as Kenya prepares its new national strategy, the country should place greater emphasis on and direct resources toward accelerating agricultural growth. In assessing the impact of rural investments on growth and poverty, the paper finds that increasing agricultural spending to meet the 10 percent target set by the Maputo Declaration would lift an additional 1.5 million people above the poverty line by 2015. Specific agricultural investments have higher returns in different parts of the country, however. Irrigation favors the lowlands and the poorest segment of the population, while research and extension (R&E) favors the midlands and highlands. Investment in R&E is also found to have the highest returns in both growth and poverty reduction. However, increasing agricultural spending to 10 percent of total spending is insufficient to meet either the MDG or the 6 percent agricultural growth target of the Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Program, which Kenya has recently adopted. . Achieving this target requires nonagricultural investments, such as in roads and market development. Building rural roads and reducing agricultural transaction costs significantly reduces poverty and encourages growth beyond rural areas. While it is necessary to increase spending on agriculture, the fiscal burden of an agricultural strategy can be greatly reduced by improving investment efficiency." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agriculture, Rural investment, Public investment, Poverty reduction, Inequality, Pro-poor growth, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:723&r=afr |
| By: | Al-Hassan, Ramatu M.; Diao, Xinshen |
| Abstract: | "The development pattern in Ghana is characterised by a north-south divide in which the north lags far behind the south... This paper sets out to identify avenues for pro-poor growth in Ghana, focussing on agricultural opportunities, particularly in northern Ghana. Using an economywide, multimarket model and based on time series production data between 1991 and 2000 and Ghana Living Standards Survey data of 1991/92 and 1998/99, this paper analyzes the possible poverty reduction trends up to 2015 by assuming different patterns of growth. The results show that agriculture-led growth has a larger poverty reducing effect than nonagriculture-led growth... A review of the literature shows that while the north generally is a net migration area, the rewards of migration have been limited because people who migrate have no skills and are, therefore, limited to entering the informal job market where wages are low. The implication is to enhance this labour with education and skills. Ultimately, the regions must attract production investment to boost economic activity and generate local growth. The state must play a leading role in investing in productive and social infrastructure as a way of facilitating the environment for private sector operators.: from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Pro-poor growth, Pro-poor policies, Regional inequality, Poverty reduction, Agricultural growth, Economywide modeling, Public investment, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:693&r=afr |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Sarpong, Daniel B. |
| Abstract: | "An economywide, multimarket model is constructed for Ghana and the effects of agricultural soil erosion on crop yields are explicitly modeled at the subnational regional level for eight main staple crops. The model is used to evaluate the aggregate economic costs of soil erosion by taking into account economywide linkages between production and consumption, across sectors and agricultural subsectors. To fill a gap in the literature regarding economic cost analysis of soil erosion, this paper also analyzes the poverty implications of land degradation. The model predicts that land degradation reduces agricultural income in Ghana by a total of US$4.2 billion over the period 2006–2015, which is approximately five percent of total agricultural GDP in these ten years. The effect of soil loss on poverty is also significant at the national level, equivalent to a 5.4 percentage point increase in the poverty rate in 2015 compared to the case of no soil loss. Moreover, soil loss causes a slowing of poverty reduction over time in the three northern regions, which currently have the highest poverty rates in the country. Sustainable land management (SLM) is the key to reducing agricultural soil loss. The present findings indicate that through the adoption of conventional SLM practices, the declining trend in land productivity can be reversed, and that use of a combination of conventional and modern SLM practices would generate an aggregate economic benefit of US$6.4 billion over the period 2006–2015. SLM practices would therefore significantly reduce poverty in Ghana, particularly in the three northern regions." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Land degradation, Costs, Agricultural soil loss, Economywide modeling, Modeling cost of land degradation, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:698&r=afr |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Fan, Shenggen; Yu, Bingxin; Kanyarukiga, Sam |
| Abstract: | "An economywide, multimarket (EMM) model was developed for Rwanda to analyze the linkages and trade-offs between growth and poverty reduction goals at both macro- and micro-economic levels. The model includes 30 agricultural commodities or commodity groups from eight broad agricultural subsectors, along with two aggregated nonagricultural sectors. The analysis compares the economic, income, and poverty effects of a variety of growth scenarios based on existing national subsector growth targets. The analysis shows 6 percent of CAADP's agricultural GDP growth target is achievable if growth reaches its target at the agricultural subsectoral level. But it is not enough for the country to achieve the MDG One, although the national poverty rate in 2015 will be 17 percent lower than that in 2005. Moreover, the household groups with the smallest landholding size, female-headed, or with few opportunities to participate cash crop production seem to benefit less from such growth. The study also examines the different growth-poverty linkages at agricultural subsector level, and shows that growth driven by productivity increases in staple crops and livestock production can reduce the poverty more than in the case where growth is driven by export crops or by the nonagricultural sector. The analysis also shows that to achieve growth required by CAADP and MDG One, the country needs to substantially beef up its public investment in agriculture. The share of agricultural spending in total government spending is required to increase from the current level of 5 percent to 10-35 percent in 2015." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agricultural growth, Poverty reduction, Growth dynamics, Public investment, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:689&r=afr |
| By: | Bernard, Tanguy; Gabre-Madhin, Eleni Z.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum |
| Abstract: | "This paper examines the impact of cooperatives on smallholder commercialization of cereals, using detailed household data from rural Ethiopia. We review the involvement of cooperatives, in terms of who participates and where they are located. We then use the strong government role in promoting the establishment of cooperatives to assume that the decision of where to establish a cooperative is largely driven by external considerations, and is thus exogenous to the members themselves justifying the use of propensity-score matching in order to compare households that are cooperative members to similar households in comparable areas without cooperatives. Four conclusions are derived from the analysis. First, despite the spread of cooperatives – they existed in less than 15 percent of districts in 1994 and nearly 35 percent in 2005 – there are important disparities across regions. Within regions, cooperatives tend to be located in areas that already have better access to markets and lower exposure to price and environmental risks. Second, at the household level participation is only 9 percent, with poorer households less likely to participate. Third, while cooperatives obtain higher prices for their members, they are not associated with a significant increase in the overall share of cereal production sold by their members. Fourth, these average results hide considerable heterogeneity in the impact across households. In particular, we find smaller farmers tend to reduce their marketable surplus as a result of higher prices, while the opposite is true for larger farmers." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Smallholders, small farms, Marketing, Cooperatives, Commercialization, Cereal crops, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:722&r=afr |
| By: | Yesuf, Mahmud; Bluffstone, Randy |
| Abstract: | "Production systems in low-income developing countries are generally poorly diversified, focusing on rainfed staple crop production and raising livestock. These activities are inherently risky and investment and production decisions by farm households are therefore made within environments that are affected by risk. Because of poorly developed or absent credit and insurance markets it is difficult to pass any of these risks to a third party. As a result, it is often found that even when the expected net return is high, households are reluctant to adopt new agricultural technologies when they involve risk. Better understanding risk behavior will be essential for identifying appropriate farm-level strategies for adaptation to climate change by low-income farmers. Despite risk's potentially central role in farm investment decisions, there have been few attempts to estimate the magnitude and nature of risk aversion of farm households in low-income developing countries. To partially close this gap, this paper uses an experimental approach applied to 262 households in the Ethiopian highlands with real payoffs. By incorporating both small and large stakes and gains and losses into the experiment, we test for the presence of low stake risk aversion and loss aversion. We find that more than 50 percent of the households are severely or extremely risk averse. This contrasts with studies in Asia where most household decision-makers exhibit moderate to intermediate risk aversion. We find that households that stand to lose as well as gain something from participation in games are significantly more risk averse than households playing gains-only games. This strongly suggests that agricultural extension efforts involving losses as well as gains may face systematic resistance by farmers in low-income, high-risk environments. Promotion of technologies with downside risks – even if the upside potential is enormous – should therefore be combined with insurance or other support. We also find that even without the possibility of losses households are much more averse to risk when stakes are high. Results indicate that insurance or other support can likely be phased out. After initial successes have convinced farmers that technologies are viable, risk aversion declines. There are also significant differences in risk averting behavior between relatively poorer and wealthier farm households, which is consistent with decreasing absolute risk aversion. This suggests that as wealth is built up households are willing to take on more risk in exchange for higher returns. Both these findings suggest a strong path dependence. Efforts to develop poor rural areas through promotion of risky technologies should take this path dependence into account. Early successes are important, but households should also be allowed to build up wealth before they are challenged or tempted to take on more risky ventures. Furthermore, the finding that even without the possibility of losses households are much more risk averse when stakes are higher, suggests that agricultural extension should start modestly before asking households to take on larger gambles." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | experimental studies, loss aversion, risk aversion, Risk management, econometric models, Farm households, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:715&r=afr |
| By: | Siddig, El Fatih Ali; El-Harizi, Khalid; Prato, Bettina |
| Abstract: | "Despite the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which brought to an end 20 years of civil war in the Sudan, this country continues to experience smaller-scale conflicts, particularly around access to and control of natural resources. Some observers lay the blame for this on ethnopolitical or tribal divisions. However, this paper argues that there are a variety of factors at play behind these conflicts, notably the combination of resource scarcity with a crisis of governance that is particularly evident in transitional areas like the Kordofan region. To gain a sense of the range of conflicts around natural resources in Kordofan, the authors reviewed existing records such as government archives; conducted interviews with politicians, federal and state government officials, farmers, pastoralists, and Native Administration leaders; and investigated findings in the field. Interviews also served to examine people's knowledge about government natural resource policies and their perceptions of the roles played by government and the Native Administration in conflict management and resolution. The paper presents 20 cases of stalemate competition or open conflict over natural resources in Kordofan. The cases center on (1) conflicts between farmers and herders over stock routes, gum arabic forests, gardens, watering points, and the use of dars (tribal homelands); (2) conflicts between herders and small farmers and government agents or large private investors over mechanized farming areas, oil infrastructure, and other private investments. In their analysis of natural resource governance in Sudan, the authors find that natural resources policies have often been weak foundations for sustainable resource use, and in some cases they have actually contributed to conflict. In addition, the volatile path of government devolution efforts concerning natural resources has undermined governance of these resources. While conflicts between farmers and herders were managed relatively successful in the past through customary land tenure systems, this is less and less the case today as a result of larger herds, reduced water and pasture, instability and prejudices stirred up by the war, and a proliferation of arms among herders. In addition, patron–client politics, weak natural resource management and development policies, and top-down government institutions have encouraged ethnic polarization and social divisions. The authors find that measures are needed to reform the process of natural resource management, making land use planning more comprehensive, building on local livelihood systems, and increasing public spending on infrastructure. In addition, sustainable property rights on farmland and on mobile resources should be redefined, and informal conflict management mechanisms restored to the extent that this is possible." Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Conflict management, Natural resource management, Small farmers, Land use, Livelihoods, Public spending, infrastructure, Property rights, Governance, Sustainability, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:711&r=afr |
| By: | Benin, Samuel; You, Liangzhi |
| Abstract: | "The Ugandan coffee industry is facing some serious challenges, including low international prices in the international coffee market, aging coffee trees and declining productivity, and, more recently, the appearance of coffee-wilt disease, which have all contributed to the decline in both the quantity and value of coffee exports. The government of Uganda, through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), in 1993/94 started a coffee-replanting program to both replace coffee trees that were old or affected by coffee-wilt and expand coffee production into other suitable areas in northern and eastern Uganda. This program seems to be helping to both combat the industry's problems and reverse the declining trends. However, the UCDA announced in 2004 that it was withdrawing from the replanting program in the 2004/05 season (it had supported nursery operators and purchased and distributed free seedlings to farmers), so the program's achievements may not last. This paper estimates the economic returns (benefit–cost ratio) of the coffee-replanting program, particularly replanting with clonal varieties, and analyzes the welfare implications of the decision to withdraw. We find that the internal rate of return (IRR) and benefit–cost ratio are very high, about 50 percent and 3.7 respectively, suggesting that the replanting program in Uganda is very beneficial to the livelihoods of coffee farmers, the coffee sub-sector, and the economy as a whole. The largest benefits occur in the central region, where the bulk of coffee is grown, followed by the eastern and western regions. The largest return on investment occurs in the eastern region, followed by the central and western regions. Sensitivity analyses show that the results (that is, the net benefits) are robust with respect to the assumptions made, including demand and supply elasticities and level of domestic consumption. Although the results are sensitive to farm production costs and coffee yields, the program still improves welfare. Taken all together, the results suggest that if the government withdraws from the replanting program without putting place adequate alternative measures to ensure the program's sustainability, welfare will be severely reduced in coffee-growing areas." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Clonal coffee, Benefit-cost analysis, IRR, DREAM, Agricultural research, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:744&r=afr |
| By: | Kassie, Menale; Pender, John; Yesuf, Mahmud; Kohlin, Gunnar; Bluffstone, Randy; Mulugeta, Elias |
| Abstract: | "Land degradation, in the form of soil erosion and nutrient depletion, threatens food security and the sustainability of agricultural production in many developing countries. Governments and development agencies have invested substantial resources in promoting soil conservation practices, in an effort to improve environmental conditions and reduce poverty. However, very limited rigorous empirical work has examined the economics of adopting soil conservation technology. This paper investigates the impact of stone bunds on crop production value per hectare in low and high rainfall areas of the Ethiopian highlands using cross-sectional data from more than 900 households having multiple plots per household. We use modified random effects models, stochastic dominance analysis (SDA) and matching methods to ensure robustness. The parametric regression and SDA estimates are based on matched observations obtained from nearest neighbor matching using propensity score estimates. This is important because conventional regression and SDA estimates are obtained without ensuring the existence of comparable conserved and non-conserved plots within the distribution of covariates. Here, we use matching methods, random effects and Mundlak's approach to control for selection and endogeneity biases that may arise due to correlation of unobserved heterogeneity and observed explanatory variables. The three methods used herein consistently show that plots with stone bunds are more productive than those without such technologies in semi-arid areas but not in higher rainfall areas, apparently because the moisture-conserving benefits of this technology are more beneficial in drier areas. This implies that the performance of stone bunds varies by agro-ecological type, suggesting a need for the design and implementation of appropriate site-specific technologies." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Soil conservation, Crop production, Agro-ecology, Matching method, Stochastic dominance, Modified random effects model, Land management, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:733&r=afr |
| By: | Mogues, Tewodaj; Ayele, Gezahegn; Paulos, Zelekawork |
| Abstract: | Gezahegn Ayele: DCA, Ethiopia |
| Keywords: | Public investments, Public spending, Rural welfare, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:702&r=afr |
| By: | Block, Paul J. |
| Abstract: | "Ethiopia is at a critical crossroads with a large and increasing population, a depressed national economy, insufficient agricultural production, and a low number of developed energy sources. The upper Blue Nile basin harbors considerable untapped potential for irrigation and hydropower development and expansion. Numerous hydrologic models have been developed to assess hydropower and agricultural irrigation potential within the basin, yet often fail to adequately address critical aspects, including the transient stages of large-scale reservoirs, relevant flow retention policies and associated downstream ramifications, and the implications of stochastic modeling of variable climate and climate change. A hydrologic model with dynamic climate capabilities is constructed to assess these aspects. The model indicates that large-scale development typically produces benefit-cost ratios from 1.2-1.8 under historical climate regimes for the projects specified. Climate change scenarios indicate potential for small benefit-cost increases, but reflect possible significant decreases. Stochastic modeling of scenarios representing a doubling of the historical frequency of El Niño events indicates benefit-cost ratios as low as 1.0 due to a lack of timely water. An evaluation of expected energy growth rates reinforces the need for significant economic planning and the necessity of securing energy trade contracts prior to extensive development. A Ramsey growth model for energy development specifies project multipliers on total GDP over the 100-year simulation ranging from 1.7-5.2, for various climatologic conditions." Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Water resources development, Hydrologic model, Energy, Climate variability, Climate change, Irrigation, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:700&r=afr |
| By: | Chemingui, Mohamed Abdelbasset |
| Abstract: | "This study is part of a collaborative project between the International Food Policy Research Institute and the Arab Planning Institute in Kuwait on public policy and poverty reduction in the Arab region. The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of an increase in public spending in priority areas on economic growth and poverty reduction in Yemen. To accomplish this objective, the study builds a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model to provide a baseline scenario of changes in the economy and poverty levels in Yemen during the period 1998-2016. Alternative scenarios are then compared to isolate the specific impact of several policies on poverty. The scenarios assume an increase in public spending devoted to three priority areas (agriculture, education, and health), which affect the economy through an increase in sectoral or economy-wide technical factor productivity. Results of public spending experiments show that targeting increased amounts of public spending towards education and health services will generate more economic growth and poverty reduction than increasing public spending solely on the agricultural sector. However, when an oil sector is a prominent part of the economy, as in Yemen, additional public spending on health and education does not improve productivity in the oil sector. Therefore, spending on agriculture becomes the most important channel for poverty reduction and economic growth. While increasing public spending in priority areas appears to be the best solution available for the government to reduce poverty during the next decade, the road is still long for Yemen to be able to achieve its Millennium Development Goals for poverty reduction. Re-allocating public expenditures from defense to key sectors appears to be an additional option for reducing poverty, given the financial constraints facing Yemen. However, in the current context of terrorism concerns, it will be difficult to convince policy-makers to reduce spending on defense and security. Seeking additional resources from international donors seems to be the only option available to increase benefits from increased public spending in the priority areas identified and assessed in this study." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Public investments, Poverty reduction, economic growth, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:701&r=afr |
| By: | Nagarajan, Latha; Audi, Patrick; Jones, Richard; Smale, Melinda |
| Abstract: | "Over the last two decades, several seed-related programs have been initiated in eastern Kenya to improve farmers' access to quality seeds of dryland cereals and legumes. They are provided during two occasions, regular and emergency times. But very often, the formal supply mechanisms limit their role in provision of seeds other than maize. In the absence of any formalized systems of seed provision for other dryland crops, such as sorghum and pigeon pea, farmers have preferred local markets for their seed needs, especially during distress periods. Here we have examined the role of various seed-intervention programs in eastern Kenya, along with the strengths and weaknesses of each program. We have also underscored the importance of local markets and their actors in meeting the needs for non-maize and bean seeds in these marginal environments. For this purpose, detailed, informal interviews were conducted during October–December 2005 with all the stakeholders, namely public and private institutions and vendors in eight major local markets in eastern Kenya. The results of the study call for synergies between existing formal (private, public, and other development initiative) systems and informal (local market) seed systems to enhance crop yields and the diversity of dryland cereals and legumes through effective seed-supply interventions." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Seed interventions, Local markets, Seed systems, Dry lands, Seed access, Eastern Kenya, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:738&r=afr |
| By: | Minten, Bart |
| Abstract: | "Global retail chains are becoming increasingly dominant in the global food trade and their rise leads to dramatic impacts on agricultural supply chains and on small producers. However, the prospects and impacts of a food retail revolution in poor countries are not yet well understood. Here, we examine this question in Madagascar, a poor but stable country where global retailers have been present for over a decade. Our survey and analysis finds that while global retail chains sell better quality food, their prices are 40 to 90% higher, ceteris paribus, than those seen in traditional retail markets. In poor settings, characterized by high food price elasticities, a lack of willingness to pay for quality, and small retail margins, supermarkets appear to set prices with an eye toward maximizing profits based on price-inelastic demands for quality products from a small middle class interested in one-stop shopping. It seems unlikely that global retail chains will further increase their food retail share in such poor settings." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Food retail, Supermarkets, Food quality, Poor Developing countries, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:719&r=afr |
| By: | Smale, Melinda; Diakité, Lamissa; Dembélé, Brahima; Traoré, Issa Seni; Guindo, Oumar; Konta, Bouréma |
| Abstract: | "In Mali, liberalization of seed markets for sorghum and millet, the staple food crops, has not advanced at the same rate or with the same measurable success as liberalization of grain markets. Most seed of these crops is uncertified and continues to be supplied to farmers by farmers, according to clan and ethno-linguistic group. After poor harvests or when replanting after a dry spell, farmers rely on local markets for grain as sources of seed. This paper summarizes the findings of a vendor survey conducted in two marketsheds during weekly fairs. No certified seed is sold. Almost all vendors are women who are also farmers. Variety integrity is maintained particularly for millet seed in the marketshed of the Sahelian zone, where the range of variety adaptation is very limited. Grain that is suitable for seed is brought to market directly from granaries. Varieties are identified by their provenance. Socially prescribed behavior is apparent in price-fixing, price discounts, procurement practices, and the spatial organization of vendors. Preliminary hypotheses are tested with a simple regression. Marketshed, which is highly correlated with the ethnic composition of the population, agro-ecology, market infrastructure and crop sold, has a dominant impact on quantities sold. Quantities sold do not respond to expected prices. Greater specialization of the vendor in trade as compared to farming, younger age, and additional years in school positively influence amounts sold. A better comprehension of this type of trade could contribute to policies that improve the access of poor farmers to valuable crop genetic resources, enhancing their seed security and productivity." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Agricultural development, Informal sector, Seed markets, Traders, Landraces, Millet, Sorghum, Women, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:746&r=afr |
| By: | Schiffer, Eva |
| Abstract: | "This paper presents an innovative participatory method to visualize, discuss and analyze the power of different actors in a given governance field. The Power Mapping Tool was first used to analyze the governance effects of Community-Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) in Namibia. This example is presented as a case study to show how the method works: The actors involved are represented by board game figures that are characterized through “range-of-action-cards” and put on wooden “power towers” to show their power in the governance field. The result is a three dimensional sketch that provides quantitative data and guides the qualitative discussion about reasons for and effects of the power of different actors. In the case of Namibian CBNRM Power Mapping helped to understand how power indeed had been devolved from the national to the local level. However, on the community level elite-capture was seen as a serious problem. In this research the Power Mapping Tool proved to be easy to use with a very diverse mix of interview partners and provided not only a wealth of data but also increased the interviewees' understanding of their own situation." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Governance, Participatory methods, Decentralization, Natural resource management, Political power, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:703&r=afr |
| By: | Prashanth Mahagaonkar (Max Planck Institute of Economics, Entrepreneurship, Growth and Public Policy Group) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides a firm-level empirical analysis on the ways in which corruption affects innovative activity. Particularly with respect to the African continent that is striving to reconcile with instability and poverty, this issue seems to be of utmost importance. Using a newly available dataset on African firms, it is shown that corruption has a negative effect on product innovation and organisational innovation. Corruption does not affect process innovation while it facilitates marketing innovation. |
| Keywords: | Corruption, Developing Economies, Product Innovation, Process Innovation, Organisational Innovation, marketing Innovation, Taxation |
| JEL: | D73 O14 O31 H11 H25 |
| Date: | 2008–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2008-017&r=afr |
| By: | Diakité, Lamissa; Sidibé, Amadou; Smale, Melinda; Grum, Mikkel |
| Abstract: | "This paper reviews the structure and performance of the sorghum and millet seed sector in Mali. The Sahel is the origin of pearl millet and sorghum, seed selection and management of these crops is embedded in local cultures, and most producers of these crops are subsistence oriented. Despite seed sector reform, no certified seed of these crops is sold in local markets and farmers prefer to rely on themselves or each other for seed. The dominant source of certified seed is the national seed service. Certified seed is multiplied by contracted farmers and seed producer groups, and supplied to farmers through farmers' associations, development organizations, and extension services. The informal sector supplies farmers with non-certified seed directly and indirectly through village grain markets. There is no consensus about whether it is lack of effective demand or supply that constrains farmer use of certified sorghum and millet seed, but researchers generally conclude that the process of certifying seed is too lengthy, some mechanism must be established for production and trade of locally-adapted landraces, and Mali's highly structured farmers' associations could play an even stronger role in testing and promoting demand for certified seed. Recommendations have included the use of small packs and seed auctions where market infrastructure is sparse, and in more commercialized areas, involvement of agro-input dealers, shopkeepers and traders. Still, estimated adoption rates for improved millet (under 10 percent of crop area) and sorghum seed (under 20 percent of crop area) could be as high as can be expected in this challenging natural environment and institutional context." from Author's Abstract |
| Keywords: | Seeds, Formal sector, Informal sector, Millet, Sorghum, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:749&r=afr |
| By: | Harizi, Khalid El; Klemick, Heather |
| Abstract: | "Parallel to the growing attention being devoted to the relationship between empowerment and development, an increasing number of tools are being developed to measure empowerment and determine the link between these two phenomena. This paper details the methodological processes used to construct, test and possibly refine one such instrument, the Community Capability Index, an innovative tool to measure community capabilities in the domain of natural resource governance. Empirical reference is made to research conducted in 85 villages in North and South Kordofan, Sudan. Following this, the paper presents findings from analyses of the determinants of community capabilities, including geographic, economic, and institutional variables. The results suggest that in Kordofan a number of factors influence capabilities. Possessing a village market, proximity to the nearest town, and access to credit are economic variables that have a significant and highly positive effect on community capabilities. Regarding the environment, capabilities are found to be greater where there is more rainfall, but access to groundwater from lower-quality aquifers and cracking clay soils have negative impacts on capabilities. War shocks, as might be expected, have a negative and significant effect. Particularly interesting is the generally weak correlation found between capabilities and wealth, along with strong correlations between institutional and social dimensions of community capabilities and participation in donor-funded projects. This combination suggests that development interventions must take into account the non-identity of poverty reduction and empowerment processes, at least when the targeted agents are communities rather than individuals or households. The findings reveal areas for further investigation into the relationship between the determinants and dimensions of capabilities, and the potential significance of the relationship for some dimensions suggests context-specific interventions to strengthen the relevant capabilities." from Authors' Abstract |
| Keywords: | Capabilities, Community Capabilities Index, Empowerment, methodologies, Social capital, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:730&r=afr |
| By: | Duffy, Neal; Ezemenari, Kene; Coulibaly, Kalamogo |
| Abstract: | Trade, financial, and exchange rate reforms are shown to have exerted a positive impact on the growth of total factor productivity in Rwanda during the period 1995-2003. Based on a constant returns-to-scale Cobb-Douglas production function, this paper regresses total factor productivity on indices of trade, financial, and exchange rate reforms. The analysis determines that trade reforms and financial reforms each contributed positively to improvements in total factor productivity. The data also suggest that the allocation of official development assistance to human capital made a significant contribution to productivity. In contrast, the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the late 1980 ' s hindered productivity or the growth of TFP. Taken together, the findings for Rwanda presented in this paper show that the strong growth of the past decade has not just been due to a " bounce back " effect followi ng the genocide. The results support the notion that policies favorable to trade development, a deepening of the financial sector, and formation of human capital have been effective for increasing aggregate productivity of the economy and stimulating growth in Rwanda. For sustained growth, the Rwandan authorities should continue to build on these policies, while also taking care to maintain an appropriate exchange rate. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Emerging Markets,Debt Markets,Currencies and Exchange Rates,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4552&r=afr |
| By: | Negri, Mariano; Porto, Guido G. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies nonmarket institutions that facilitate exports. In Malawi, as in many other developing countries, farmers face numerous constraints that disconnect them from export markets. The paper explores the role of a local institution, the burley tobacco clubs, in bridging smallholders to exports. Burley clubs potentially enable farmers to increase their tobacco farming productivity by providing services related to institutional access, collective action, economies of scale, and supporting network. Using matching methods and instrumental variable techniques, the authors find that tobacco club membership causes an increase of between 40-74 percent in output per acre and an increase of between 45-89 percent in tobacco sales per acre. Instead, neither the land share allocated to tobacco nor the unit value obtained by the producers is affected by club membership. |
| Keywords: | Tobacco Use and Control,Alcohol and Substance Abuse,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Adolescent Health,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2008–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4561&r=afr |
| By: | Okumu, Ibrahim M.; Nakajjo, Alex; Isoke, Doreen |
| Abstract: | Abstract This paper describes the socioeconomic determinants of primary school dropout in Uganda with the aid of a logistic model analysis using the 2004 National Service Delivery Survey data. The Objectives were to establish the; household socioeconomic factors that influence dropout of pupils given free education and any possible policy alternatives to curb dropout of pupils. Various logistic regressions of primary school dropout were estimated and these took the following dimensions; rural-urban, gender, and age-cohort. After model estimation, marginal effects for each of the models were obtained. The analysis of the various coefficients was done across all models. The results showed the insignificance of distance to school, gender of pupil, gender of household head and total average amount of school dues paid by students in influencing dropout of pupils thus showing the profound impact Universal Primary Education has had on both access to primary education and pupil dropout. Also the results vindicated the importance of parental education, household size and proportion of economically active household members in influencing the chances of pupil dropout. The study finally calls for government to; keep a keen eye on non-school fees payments by parents to schools as these have the potential to increase to unsustainable levels by most households especially in rural areas; roll-out adult education across the entire country; and expand free universal education to secondary and vocational levels as it would allow some of those who can not afford secondary education to continue with schooling. This has the effect of reducing the number of unproductive members in the household. |
| Keywords: | socioeconomic determinants; primary education; and dropout |
| JEL: | O1 I2 |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:7851&r=afr |
| By: | Andalon, Mabel (Cornell University); Pagés, Carmen (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the performance of minimum wage legislation in Kenya, both in terms of its coverage and enforcement as well as in terms of their implications for wages and employment. Our findings based on the 1998/99 labor force data – the last labor force survey available – indicate that minimum wages, which, in principle, apply to all salaried employees, were better enforced and had stronger effects in the non-agricultural industry than in the agricultural one. More specifically, our results suggest that (i) compliance rates were higher in occupations other than agriculture, (ii) minimum wages were positively associated with wages of low-educated workers and women in non-agricultural activities, while no such relationship is found for workers in agriculture, and (iii) higher minimum wages were associated with a lower share of workers in formal activities in a given occupation and location. Our estimates indicate that a 10 percent point increase in the minimum to median wage ratio could be associated with a decline in the share of formal employment of between 1.2-5.6 percentage points and an increase of between 2.7-5.9 points in the share of self-employment. |
| Keywords: | Kenya, employment, minimum wages, wage |
| JEL: | J23 J31 J38 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3390&r=afr |
| By: | Olivier Dagnelie; Philippe LeMay-Boucher |
| Abstract: | In the light of first-hand data from a Beninese urban household survey in Cotonou, we investigate several motives aiming to explain participation in Rotating Savings and Credit ASsociations. We provide anecdotal pieces of evidence, descriptive statistics, FIML regressions and matching estimates which tend to indicate that most individuals use their participation in a rosca as a device to commit themselves to save money and to deal with self-control problems. |
| Keywords: | ROSCA, self-control, commitment device, Benin |
| JEL: | G2 O16 O17 |
| Date: | 2008–02–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aub:autbar:735.08&r=afr |
| By: | Solveig Glomsrød, Gang Liu, Taoyuan Wei and Jens B. Aune (Statistics Norway) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of a CDM tree-planting project on carbon sequestration and urban and rural income distribution, taking economy-wide impacts into account. Carbon sequestration in agricultural soil is considered in addition to the carbon in the tree farm itself. The study points to that project designs that raise the general investment level may add substantially to the project's carbon capture by stimulating the productivity of agriculture, thus binding more carbon in soil. As demand for crops is rising, the mode of agricultural production turns more intensive and improved plant growth leaves more plant residues for uptake as soil organic carbon. As for the income effect, the non-poor benefit more than the poor in economic terms, except when the project is hosted by the rural poorest. Foreign owned projects withdrawing the project surplus may turn out to reduce the income of urban poor and does not enhance agricultural productivity and beyond-project carbon sequestration. |
| Keywords: | CDM; afforestation; poverty reduction; CGE; Tanzania |
| JEL: | D58 O13 Q52 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:534&r=afr |
| By: | Getinet Astatike Haile (Policy Studies Institute, London, UK); Beliyou Astatike Haile (Department of economics, Columbia University, NY) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines determinants of work participation and school attendance for children aged 7-15 using survey data from rural Ethiopia. To this effect, a bivariate probit model that addresses the interrelatedness of the two decisions is employed. Given the agrarian nature of the economy, especial focus is given to child labour on family farms and within the household. The trade-off between child labour and educational attainment is also analysed by estimating an equation for age-adjusted educational attainment of children. Male children are found to be more likely to attend school than female children implying gender bias. There is also some 'specialization' in child labour with females having a higher likelihood and intensity of participation in domestic chores while males having a higher likelihood as well as intensity of participation in market work. Besides, while male children are more likely to combine schooling with market work, their female counterparts are more likely to combine domestic work and schooling. With regard to household characteristics, large family size and the number of dependents increase the probability of combining schooling with both work activities. While education of the head increases the likelihood of school attendance, large livestock population increases the likelihood of combining schooling and market work. More importantly, long hour of work is found to reduce educational attainment of working children. |
| Keywords: | Child labour, Child education, Rural Ethiopia |
| JEL: | I21 J22 O15 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpc:wpaper:0608&r=afr |