|
on Africa |
| By: | John Serieux (Assistant Professor, Dept. of Economics, University of Manitoba) |
| Keywords: | Is Financial Liberalization a Flop? An Africa Assessment |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:opager:48&r=afr |
| By: | Nicole M. Mason; Antony Chapoto; T.S. Jayne; Robert J. Myers |
| Abstract: | Since the southern African food crisis of 2001/02, the ‘new-variant famine’ (NVF) hypothesis first proposed by de Waal and Whiteside (2003) has become an important part of the conventional wisdom surrounding the relationship between HIV/AIDS and food crises in the region. The NVF hypothesis suggests that HIV/AIDS is eroding agrarian livelihoods and exacerbating the effects of drought and other shocks on agrarian communities. These concepts have begun to shape the HIV/AIDS mitigation and food security policies and programs of governments and development agencies. To date, however, there is a dearth of empirical evidence to support the NVF hypothesis, and there have been no studies specifically designed to tests its predictions. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, HIV/AIDS |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-030&r=afr |
| By: | Steven Haggblade; David Tschirley |
| Abstract: | By law, US food aid relies on commodity procurement in the US. A powerful political coalition of US farm groups, shippers and relief agencies vigorously supports these in-kind food aid donation. As an alternative, local procurement of food aid, in Africa, has attracted growing interest because of its potential to reduce landed costs and speed delivery times. For this reason, many food aid donors, other than the US, have switched to local and regional procurement of food aid commodities. This paper reviews experience with local and regional food aid procurement in Zambia. The study focuses primarily on experience of the World Food Programme (WFP), the agency with the most extensive experience conducting local and regional procurement in Africa. WFP’s experience suggests that local or regional procurement of food aid offers significant savings, in both commodity costs and delivery times. On average, maize procured in Africa costs 30% to 50% less than white maize imported from the US and arrives 1 to 2 months faster than commodity imports from the US. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, food aid |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-028&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley; Anne Marie del Castillo |
| Abstract: | This report discusses the potential for procurement of food aid in local/regional markets to improve the effectiveness of response to food emergency victims. The paper examines the relevance of local/regional procurement (LRP) to donors and the rationale for using it, reviews LRP’s efficiency relative to in-kind food aid and to local prices in the markets in which it occurs (focusing on Africa), proposes a classification of risks involved in LRP, discusses a range of potential LRP modalities, and closes by proposing a framework of guiding principles, information systems, and operational procedures for responsible and effective LRP. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, food aid |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-027&r=afr |
| By: | Stephen Kabwe (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | 1. Smallholder farmers in Africa require reliable access to purchased production inputs and credit to take advantage of export opportunities from production of cotton. 2. Unregulated and poorly coordinated markets for cotton, production inputs and credit have too often failed to deliver sustainable production finance to farmers for cotton production resulting in a variety of different approaches to these problems among African countries. 3. Among the countries studied, approaches have varied from State monopolies to private markets with several large firms managing to achieve temporary duopolies. 4. Zambia has been relatively successful in dealing with the input-credit needs of cotton farmers for periods of time but the system has been unsustainable, breaking down from time to time. 5. Currently the Zambia government and private sector participants are proposing highly collaborative regulation of the sector driven by all stakeholders. The revised Cotton Act provides a framework under which this may be able to happen in Zambia and recent activities of ZACOP, in collaboration with CAZ are very much in this spirit. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, cotton |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-028&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Stephen Kabwe (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | 1. Farm yields are one key indicator of the productivity of a cotton sector, and an important determinant of returns to farmers (and thus of cotton’s ability to reduce poverty) 2. Zambia’s relatively good performance on input credit provision means that it has been able to raise yields since reforms in 1994; yet the rate of increase has been slow, and yields remain well below those found in countries of West and Central Africa. 3. Average returns to farmers do not appear to be any higher in Zambia, with good performance on input credit provision, than in Tanzania, where input use and yields are low. 4. Zambia’s concentrated structure gives it the potential to substantially increase farm productivity, and for cotton to make but relatively little of this potential has yet been realized. The key challenge for sector stakeholders, once the Cotton Act is passed, is to agree on a coordinated approach to address this problem |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, cotton |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-026&r=afr |
| By: | Bolt, Jutta; Bezemer, Dirk |
| Abstract: | Long-term growth in developing countries has been explained in four frameworks: ‘extractive colonial institutions’ (Acemoglu et al., 2001), ‘colonial legal origin’ (La Porta et al., 2004) ‘geography’ (Gallup et al., 1998) and ‘colonial human capital’ (Glaeser et al., 2004). In this paper we test the ‘colonial human capital’ explanation for sub-Saharan Africa, controlling for legal origins and geography. Utilizing freshly collected data on colonial-era population density and education, we find that in sub-Saharan Africa, high European population mortality did not lead to low European population densities, contra Acemoglu et al., (2001). Further, we find that instrumented human capital explains long-term growth better, and shows greater stability over time, than instrumented measures for extractive institutions. We therefore suggest that the impact of the disease environment on African long-term growth runs through a human capital channel rather than an extractive-institutions channel. The effect of education is robust to including variables capturing legal origin and geography, which have additional explanatory power. We also find some evidence that institutions are endogenous to education. |
| Keywords: | Africa; growth; institutions; education; colonial history |
| JEL: | O11 O10 P51 P16 |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:7029&r=afr |
| By: | Paul A. Dorosh; Simon Dradri; Steven Haggblade |
| Abstract: | Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, Zambia must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent experience in Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the quantitative impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility— private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, price |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-029&r=afr |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The analysis of African occult belief systems provides a unique example for demonstrating that seemingly outdated and exotic African modes of thought, such as the belief in magic and witchcraft, are modern and have significant impact on social, economic and political structures. Official approaches, designed to cope with the problems of witchcraft violence in Africa, have since the advent of colonial rule, been based on eurocentric views and colonial jurisdiction, legitimised by Western social science. These answers are inadequate; in fact, they constitute part of the problem itself. African religions could provide a framework for valuable indigenous solutions to actual problems of contemporary life, including the problem of witchcraft violence. Besides this, they might, under certain conditions, provide the outside world with an inspiring new dimension of philosophic thought and emancipative action for example, within the realm of conflict resolution and reconciliation. However, even in the case of the ‘domestication’ of witchcraft violence, this holds only in so far as appropriate African answers can be shielded against the negative impact of globalised liberal capitalism. |
| Keywords: | African Renaissance;occult belief;rationality;rational actor |
| JEL: | Z1 Z12 N37 Z13 |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:7019&r=afr |
| By: | Nicole M Mason (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Antony Chapoto (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); T.S Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Robert J. Myers (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | 1. Consistent with the New Variant Famine (NVF) hypothesis, the negative impact of drought on crop output and output per hectare is further exacerbated where HIV prevalence rates are relatively high, particularly in the low- and medium rainfall zones of the country (agro-ecological regions I and II). 2. HIV prevalence rates and AIDS-related mortality rates in Zambia are highest in the lowest rainfall and most drought-prone zone of the country (agro-ecological region I). 3. Only for districts in agro-ecological region I do we find evidence of a robust negative effect of HIV/AIDS on agrarian livelihood indicators. Relatively stable food production zones and/or areas with relatively low HIV prevalence rates appear to be less vulnerable to the adverse effects predicted by the NVF hypothesis, which suggests that HIV/AIDS exacerbates the effects of drought and other shocks on agrarian communities. 4. HIV/AIDS reduces the crop production gains associated with fertilizer subsidy increases in the highest rainfall areas. 5. Increases in the percentage of female-headed households in a district are related to declines in agricultural production indicators, but these effects do not appear to worsen when the HIV/AIDS epidemic is severe. 6. Only in districts whose borders encompass both agro-ecological regions II and III do we consistently find weak evidence that HIV/AIDS reduces the contribution of productive assets to crop output and output per unit of land as would be expected under the NVF hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, HIV/AIDS |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-023&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Stephen Kabwe (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | 1. Zambia has paid among the best nominal seed cotton prices to farmers in SSA since 1995. 2. By a more refined measure (share of FOT), during 1995-1999, Zambia paid prices comparable to those in Tanzania (a very competitive sector), and substantially higher than in Mozambique and WCA. However, from 2000-2005, Zambia's pricing performance fell, and exceeded only Zimbabwe and Mozambique in our sample 3. The recently announced reference price for 2008 of ZKW 1,200/kg of seed cotton was negotiated and jointly announced by ginners and farmers. It amounts to about 53% of FOT at current exchange rates and Index A prices; about equal to recent shares received by farmers in Zambia, but well below levels in WCA and Tanzania. 4. What “rules of the game” are needed for farmers and ginners to continue working together so that the costs and benefits in Zambia’s cotton sector are shared equitably? |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, cotton |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-027&r=afr |
| By: | Durevall, Dick (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Lindskog, Annika (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to analyse the impact of HIV/AIDS on fertility in Malawi. The future course of fertility will have an impact on both macroeconomic variables, such as GDP per capita, and various socioeconomic factors like mother-to-child-transmission of HIV, child mortality, the number of orphans, and public expenditures on schooling. Data on both prime-age adult mortality and HIV prevalence rates at districts level are used to measure the impact of HIV/AIDS, exploiting the large geographical variation in the distribution of HIV/AIDS in Malawi. Fertility is estimated for individual women, and measured as the number of births given during the last five years. Estimations are also carried out for the desired number of children. The major finding is that HIV/AIDS reduces fertility. Uninfected women both give birth to and desire to have fewer children in districts where prime-age adult mortality and HIV-prevalence are high, and vice versa. However, for young women, aged 15-19, there is a positive relationship between fertility and prime-age adult mortality and HIV prevalence, possibly because they wish to have children while being uninfected. This is likely to have negative effects on both educational attainment and child mortality. As also shown by previous studies, HIV-infected women give birth to fewer children than uninfected women. This is probably due to changed fertility preferences, as well as to physiological factors.<p> |
| Keywords: | Adult mortality; Desired fertility; Fertility; HIV/AIDS; Malawi; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | I12 J13 O12 |
| Date: | 2007–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0284&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley; Stephen Kabwe |
| Abstract: | Cotton is one unquestioned success of Zambia’s turn towards a market economy. After liberalization in late 1994, production rose from 20,000 mt to over 100,000 mt in the 1998 harvest year. After collapsing to less than 50,000 mt in 2000, it has risen steadily, nearing 200,000 mt in 2005. Over 2002-2005, exports of cotton lint were first among all agricultural exports in value, 30% higher than any other agricultural export (Export Board of Zambia 2006). The closest competitor to cotton during this time –raw cane sugar –is primarily produced on large operations, while cotton is almost entirely a smallholder crop. Its potential role in poverty alleviation and food security is, thus, very large. The success of this sector has been achieved despite persistent declines in international cotton prices since 1995, serious problems of credit default during the late 1990s, the departure in 1999 of the sector’s biggest company, Lonrho, and a very recent crisis brought on by the appreciation of the Zambian Kwacha during 2006. |
| Keywords: | food security, policy, Zambia, Africa, cotton |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:zm-fsrp-wp-026&r=afr |
| By: | Kohnert, Dirk |
| Abstract: | The political economy of occult belief in Africa can highlight hidden social and political conflict in times of transition which remain otherwise undetected. This has been demonstrated in taking the development of witchcraft accusations over time as indicator, and the Nupe of Northern Nigeria as an example. A tentative long-term study on the growth of the Nupe state since pre-colonial times points towards a close relationship between the content and form of witchcraft accusations and the mode of production under which the stakeholders used to life and work. Over time, witchcraft accusations among the Nupe apparently served different, even antagonistic ends, depending on the mode of production in which they were embedded. Much confusion in literature on the apparent contradiction between ‘emancipating’ and ‘oppressive’ functions of witchcraft beliefs could be avoided by considering this articulation between modes of production, witchcraft accusations, and the underlying vested interests of the ruling powers. |
| Keywords: | witchcraft; modes of production; informal politics; social conflict; occult belief; Nupe; Northern Nigeria JEL classification: Z1; Z12 |
| JEL: | Z12 Z1 Z13 N4 |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:6962&r=afr |
| By: | Cynthia Donovan (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); David Mather (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Using a three-year panel of 4,058 Mozambican households surveyed in 2002 and 2005, we measure how prime-age (PA) adult mortality due to illness affects rural household size and number of adults, crop and non-farm income, total household income, and asset levels. 1) Effects of PA mortality vary considerably by the gender and household position of the deceased individual as well as by region. Results show that when PA males die, households are less able to bring in new adult members, are more likely to lose access to livestock and landholdings, and to suffer income effects. Households in the North/Center with a PA male head death average 25% loss in crop income; in the South, PA male death is associated with an 88% reduction in non-farm income. 2) In spite of these income reductions, net income per adult equivalent (AE) among households with a PA death is not significantly different from those households without a death. Households with a death are also not any more likely than other households to have net income in 2005 below the expenditure-based poverty line. 3) Nevertheless, asset losses, demographic and income shifts all point to vulnerability to future income and asset shocks, especially households with a PA male death. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy Mozambique, HIV/AIDS |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:mz-minag-rl-49e&r=afr |
| By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Stephen Kabwe (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | 1. Changes in spinning technology have increased the premium on high quality lint in the world market and increased the discount for lint contaminated with non-vegetative matter 2. The inherent characteristics of most African lint, plus the fact that it is hand-picked, should give it a substantial premium in the world market. However, because so much African lint is highly contaminated by world standards, much of it trades at a discount to Index A. 3. Zambia has been the outstanding success among a sample of nine SSA countries in improving quality; this achievement is directly attributable to the efforts of Dunavant and Cargill, made possible by company culture and by the concentrated structure of Zambia's industry 4. Quality (and input supply) can be quickly undermined as a sector becomes more competitive. Continued collaboration among ZACOPA and CAZ within the framework of the Cotton Act, facilitated by a non-partisan government role, will be crucial to maintain good performance. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, cotton |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-025&r=afr |
| By: | Bezemer, Dirk; Jong-A-Pin, Richard |
| Abstract: | Recent studies suggest that democracy and globalization lead to ethnic hatred and violence in countries with a rich ethnic minority. We examine the thesis by Chua (2003) that democratization and globalization lead to ethnic violence in the presence of a market-dominant minority. We use different data sets to measure market dominant minorities and employ panel fixed effects regressions for a sample of 107 countries over the period 1984-2003. Our model contains two-way and three-way interactions to examine under which conditions democracy and globalization increase violence. We find no evidence for a worldwide Chua effect, but we do find support for Chua’s thesis for Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Democracy; Ethnic Violence; Market-dominant minorities |
| JEL: | D74 J15 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:7027&r=afr |
| By: | Duncan Boughton (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Rui M.S. Benfica |
| Abstract: | Livelihood strategies among rural HHs in the Zambezi Valley are predominantly based on agricultural activities, but income diversification is increasingly important. Cash income from agriculture comes predominantly from tobacco and cotton production. Due to cash constraints and poor access to input and credit by farmers, and high demand from buyers to meet quality and volume requirements, contract farming (CF) is the dominant form in the organization of transactions in those cash cropping sectors. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Mozambique, marketing, cash crop |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:mz-minag-rr-63e&r=afr |
| By: | Jamsheed Shorish |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:man:sespap:0709&r=afr |
| By: | Duncan Boughton (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Rui M.S. Benfica |
| Abstract: | Poverty is widespread in Mozambique, particularly in rural areas where the highest proportion of the population lives and work. Livelihood strategies among rural HHs in the Zambezi Valley are predominantly based on agricultural activities, but income diversification is increasingly important. Cash income from agriculture comes predominantly from tobacco and cotton production. Due to cash constraints and poor access to input and credit by farmers, and high demand from buyers to meet quality and volume requirements, contract faming is the dominant form in the organization of transactions in those cash cropping sectors. The selective nature of CF implies that not all HHs may have the chance to directly participate in these schemes; some HHs are excluded. A key question, then, is how large and widespread the indirect income effects of these schemes are, compared to the direct effects. The answer to these questions has a lot to say about the poverty reduction effects of such crops, and may generate insights about policies and programs to enhance these effects. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Mozambique, marketing, cash crop |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:mz-minag-rr-64e&r=afr |
| By: | Servaas Van der Berg |
| Abstract: | Massive differentials on achievement tests and examinations reflect South Africa’s divided past. Improving the distribution of educational outcomes is imperative to overcome labour market inequalities. Historically white and Indian schools still outperform black and coloured schools in examinations, and intraclass correlation coefficients (rho) reflect far greater between-school variance compared to overall variance than for other countries. SACMEQ’s rich data sets provide new possibilities for investigating relationships between educational outcomes, socio-economic status (SES), pupil and teacher characteristics, school resources and school processes. As a different data generating process applied in affluent historically white schools (test scores showed bimodal distributions), part of the analysis excluded such schools, sharply reducing rho. Test scores were regressed on various SES measures and school inputs for the full and reduced sample, using survey regression and hierarchical (multilevel) (HLM) models to deal with sample design and nested data. This shows that the school system was not yet systematically able to overcome inherited socio-economic disadvantage, and poor schools least so. Schools diverged in their ability to convert inputs into outcomes, with large standard deviations for random effects in the HLM models. The models explained three quarters of the large between-school variance but little of the smaller within-school variance. Outside of the richest schools, SES had only a mild impact on test scores, which were quite low in SACMEQ context. |
| Keywords: | Analysis of Education |
| JEL: | J21 |
| Date: | 2008–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:cegedp:69&r=afr |
| By: | Antonio Ciccone; Markus Brückner |
| Abstract: | According to the economic approach to political transitions, negative transitory economic shocks can give rise to a window of opportunity for democratic change. We examine this hypothesis using yearly rainfall variation over the 1980-2004 period in 41 Sub-Saharan African countries. We find that a 25% drop in rainfall increases the probability of a transition to democracy during the following two years by around 3 percentage points. A 5% fall in income due to low rainfall raises the probability of democratization by 7 percentage points. We also find that rainfall does not affect transitions from democracy to autocracy. |
| Keywords: | Democratization, transitory economic shocks |
| JEL: | O0 P0 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1063&r=afr |
| By: | Akresh, Richard; Verwimp, Philip; Bundervoet, Tom |
| Abstract: | This paper combines household survey data with event data on the timing and location of armed conflicts to examine the impact of Burundi ' s civil war on children ' s health status. The identification strategy exploits exogenous variation in the war ' s timing across provinces and the exposure of children ' s birth cohorts to the fighting. After controlling for province of residence, birth cohort, individual and household characteristics, and province-specific time trends, the authors find that children exposed to the war have on average 0.515 standard deviations lower height-for-age z-scores than non-exposed children. This negative effect is robust to specifications exploiting alternative sources of exogenous variation. |
| Keywords: | Youth and Governance,Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Post Conflict Reconstruction,Health Monitoring & Evaluation |
| Date: | 2008–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4500&r=afr |
| By: | Paul A. Dorosh; Simon Dradri; Steven Haggblade (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | • Maize production varies widely from year to year, given Zambia’s heavy dependence on rainfed cultivation. Thus consumers face wide swings in availability of their primary food staple. • Typical public responses include increased food aid inflows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. While intended to improve domestic supply, these public responses can inadvertently exacerbate price instability and food insecurity for Zambian consumers. • Two key private sector responses – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of alternate food staples (such as cassava) for maize - can also help to moderate food consumption volatility. • Together, private imports and increased cassava consumption could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years. • But policy changes – including more open borders and greater transparency in public import and pricing decisions – will be required to induce the private sector to expand imports, storage and production of key staples and, in turn, improve food security for the poor consumers in Zambia. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-024&r=afr |
| By: | Enzama Wilson |
| Abstract: | This paper describes and analyzes the operational strategy of West Nile region, a typical low local capability community, in pursuit of local economic development. Special emphasis has been placed on the development of groups of survival beekeeping-enterprises and their integration in the local economy. The region provides an interesting example of what public-private partnerships can offer for local economic development. Secondly, it is an attempt to document, in a coherent manner, the activities and contributions of the key actors in the honey and beeswax value chain, including support from complementary institutions. Finally, it conceptualizes and theorizes the practice of beekeeping, honey extraction, processing and marketing in West Nile. Possible lessons that can be learnt from the experience are also identified and discussed. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iss:wpaper:452&r=afr |
| By: | John Weeks (Professor Emeritus, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London) |
| Abstract: | During 2005-2006, appreciation of the Kwacha, Zambia?s currency, had a significant negative impact on public income. This exchange-rate effect received little notice in the debate over macroeconomic policy. The appreciation reduced fiscal space largely because of binding IMF conditionalities on monetary polices. The fiscal effect had two major revenue components: a fall in the domestic-currency income equivalent of official development assistance and a fall in trade taxes. In 2005, the negative effect on the public budget of the Kwacha appreciation was largely balanced by the positive impact on reducing external debt service. This positive impact ended, however, with debt relief and was almost zero after 2005. Obviously, these revenue effects, though little noticed, had negative implications for Zambia?s ability to achieve the MDGs. The Zambia experience underscores some important general lessons. It indicates, for example, the necessity to coordinate fiscal, monetary and exchange-rate policy in order to achieve sustained growth, employment generation and poverty reduction. Most important, this experience is also a clear example of the dysfunctional consequences of having low-inflation targets rule monetary policy. In the context of currency appreciation, setting limits on the domestic money supply prevents effective exchange-rate management. This necessarily creates, as a by-product, larger fiscal deficits and, consequently, more public borrowing. And these negative fiscal consequences could significantly constrict the resources that some developing countries need to achieve the MDGs. |
| Keywords: | The Reduction of Fiscal Space in Zambia?Dutch Disease and Tight-Money Conditionalities |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipc:cstudy:14&r=afr |
| By: | Duncan Boughton (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); David Tschirley; Danilo Abdula |
| Abstract: | As indicated by the title, this paper is an update of Research Paper 60E. While some of the wording and material are very similar to that paper, this new paper updates nearly all figures, and also deals in more detail with selected topics. Of special focus in this paper is demonstrating, explaining the reasons for, and assessing the importance of the very high prices of food staples in Mozambique. Mozambique’s food production and marketing system faces a huge set of challenges now and over the next decade, driven by structural constraints, population and income growth, and a rapidly rising urban share of population. We examine this challenge through the lens of the country’s primary staple, maize, focusing primarily on the central and southern regions of the country. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Mozambique, marketing, trade |
| JEL: | Q18 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpwrk:mz-minag-rr-62e&r=afr |
| By: | Klaus Abbink (CREED, University of Amsterdam,); T.S. Jayne (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Lars C. Moller (the World Bank) |
| Abstract: | • Strategic interaction between market players affects the performance of grain markets and the risk of food crises. Strategic dilemmas can arise if traders don’t trust government announcements on future maize purchases or if the government does not trust stock estimates provided by the private sector. • Government “pre-commitment” (announcing in advance how and when it will operate in the market and then behaving in a consistent manner) is found to produce superior welfare outcomes to “discretionary intervention” whereby the government operates in an unpredictable and ad hoc manner in markets. Situations of food shortage and over-supply were much more frequent under a discretionary policy environment because of the risk of poor coordination between the government and the private sector. • Exploring mechanisms that can support more predictable and rules-based policy responses may therefore be beneficial to the Government of Zambia and the country as a whole. |
| Keywords: | food security, food policy, Zambia, maize, marketing |
| JEL: | Q20 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:icpbrf:zm-fsrp-pb-029&r=afr |
| By: | Mohamed Lamine Doumbouya (LEFI - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Firme et des Institutions - Université Lumière - Lyon II) |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous étudions les conditions d’accès des populations, notamment les plus démunies, aux soins de santé. Nous nous appuyons pour à cet effet sur les résultats de l’Enquête Intégrée de Base pour l’Évaluation de la Pauvreté en Guinée (EIBEP, 2002-2003), réalisée par le Gouvernement guinéen et la Banque mondiale. Nous montrons qu’en dépit d’une nette amélioration de l’offre de santé faisant suite à l’application de l’initiative de Bamako (1987) et l’essor croissant des mutuelles d’assurance, de nombreux obstacles persistent : dysfonctionnement institutionnel, mauvaise qualité des prestations, clientélisme dans les centres de soins, etc. Le desserrement de ces étaux permettra de pallier l’essoufflement de la politique de santé en place et d’inscrire les réformes dans la continuité. Un engagement soutenu de l’État est suggéré pour consolider les infrastructures hospitalières et favoriser un bon fonctionnement du système de santé national. |
| Keywords: | Santé;financement;micro-assurance;Guinée |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00229696_v1&r=afr |
| By: | Leonard, Kenneth; Hammer, Jeffrey; Das, Jishnu |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of recent work on quality measurement of medical care and its correlates in four low and middle-income countries-India, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Paraguay. The authors describe two methods-testing doctors and watching doctors-that are relatively easy to implement and yield important insights about the nature of medical care in these countries. The paper discusses the properties of these measures, their correlates, and how they may be used to evaluate policy changes. Finally, the authors outline an agenda for further research and measurement. |
| Keywords: | Health Monitoring & Evaluation,Health Systems Development & Reform,Gender and Health,Health Economics & Finance,Disease Control & Prevention |
| Date: | 2008–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4501&r=afr |
| By: | David Roodman |
| Abstract: | The cross-country literature on foreign aid effectiveness has relied on the use of instruments to distinguish causality from mere correlation. This paper uses simple non-instrumental techniques in the spirit of Granger to demonstrate that the main aid-growth connection is a negative causal relationship from growth to aid—-aid, that is, as a fraction of recipient GDP. Coarsely, when GDP goes up, aid/GDP goes down. The endogeneity of aid, long suspected, is real. Less understood is that adding certain common controls to regressions puts this relationship through the looking glass, flipping both its sign and apparent direction: aid seems to cause growth. Ideally, instrumentation expunges the endogeneity shown here. In practice, estimates of aid’s impact have run into problems. Autocorrelation in the errors is widespread, and can render endogenous lagged variables used as regressors or instruments. The pitfalls of “difference” and “system” include invalidity and proliferation of instruments. Multicollinearity in term pairs of interest, such as aid and aid2 or “project” and “program” aid, can amplify endogeneity bias. The combination of specification problems and widespread fragility (shown in earlier work) leads to pessimism about the ability of cross-country econometrics to demonstrate aid effectiveness. This does not rule an average positive effect, nor does it contradict the fact that aid has saved millions of lives, but it does suggest that the average effect on economic growth is too small to be detected statistically. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid, economic growth |
| JEL: | B40 F35 O11 |
| Date: | 2008–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:137&r=afr |