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on Africa |
| By: | Till Bärnighausen; David E. Bloom |
| Abstract: | Without large increases in the number of health workers to treat HIV/AIDS (HAHW), most developing countries will be unable to achieve universal coverage with antiretroviral treatment (ART), leading to large numbers of potentially avoidable deaths among people living with HIV/AIDS. We use Markov Monte Carlo microsimulation to estimate the expected net present value (eNPV) of a scholarship for health care education that is conditional on the recipient entering into a contract to work for a number of years after graduation delivering ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Such a scholarship could increase the number of health workers educated in the region and decrease the probability of HAHW emigration. "Conditional scholarships" for a team of health workers sufficient to provide ART for 500 patients have an eNPV of 1.23 million year-2000 US dollars, assuming that the scholarship recipients are in addition to the health workers who would have been educated without scholarships and that the scholarships reduce annual HAHW emigration probabilities from 15% to 5% for five years. When individual variable values are varied from this base case within plausible bounds suggested by the literature, eNPV of the "conditional scholarships" never falls below 0.5 million year-2000 US dollars. |
| JEL: | I18 I22 J2 J24 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13396&r=afr |
| By: | Thierfelder, Karen; Robinson, Sherman; Korman, Vijdan; Kearney, Marna; Go, Delfin S.; Essama-Nssah, B. |
| Abstract: | As crude oil prices reach new highs, there is renewed concern about how external shocks will affect growth and poverty in developing countries. This paper describes a macro-micro framework for examining the structural and distributional consequences of a significant external shock-an increase in the world price of oil-on the South African economy. The authors merge results from a highly disaggregative computable general equilibrium model and a micro-simulation analysis of earnings and occupational choice based on socio-demographic characteristics of the household. The model provides changes in employment, wages, and prices that are used in the micro-simulation. The analysis finds that a 125 percent increase in the price of crude oil and refined petroleum reduces employment and GDP by approximately 2 percent, and reduces household consumption by approximately 7 percent. The oil price shock tends to increase the disparity between rich and poor. The adverse impact of the oil price shock is felt by the poorer segment of the formal labor market in the form of declining wages and increased unemployment. Unemployment hits mostly low and medium-skilled workers in the services sector. High-skilled households, on average, gain from the oil price shock. Their income rises and their spending basket is less skewed toward food and other goods that are most affected by changes in oil prices. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,,Labor Policies,Markets and Market Access,Access to Finance |
| Date: | 2007–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4354&r=afr |
| By: | Lambi, Cornelius M.; Molua, Ernest L. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of climate change on crop farming in Cameroon. The country ' s economy is predominantly agrarian and agriculture and the exploitation of natural resources remain the driving force for the country ' s economic development. Fluctuations in national income are due not merely to the decline in world demand for Cameroon ' s traditional agricultural exports or to mistakes in economic policy making, but also to the vagaries of the weather. Based on a farm-level survey of more than 800 farms, the study employs a Ricardian cross-sectional approach to measure the relationship between climate and the net revenue from crops. Net revenue is regressed on climate, water flow, soil, and economic variables. Further, uniform scenarios assume that only one aspect of climate changes and the change is uniform across the whole country. The analysis finds that net revenues fall as precipitation decreases or temperatures increase across all the surveyed farms. The study reaffirms that agr iculture in Cameroon is often limited by seasonality and the availability of moisture. Although other physical factors, such as soil and relief, have an important influence on agriculture, climate remains the dominant influence on the variety of crops cultivated and the types of agriculture practiced. |
| Keywords: | Climate Change,Environmental Economics & Policies,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2007–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4364&r=afr |
| By: | Gautam, Madhur; Dercon, Stefan; Ali, Daniel Ayalew |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence from one of the poorest countries of the world that the property rights matter for efficiency, investment, and growth. With all land state-owned, the threat of land redistribution never appears far off the agenda. Land rental and leasing have been made legal, but transfer rights remain restricted and the perception of continuing tenure insecurity remains quite strong. Using a unique panel data set, this study investigates whether transfer rights and tenure insecurity affect household investment decisions, focusing on trees and shrubs. The panel data estimates suggest that limited perceived transfer rights, and the threat of expropriation, negatively affect long-term investment in Ethiopian agriculture, contributing to the low returns from land and perpetuating low growth and poverty. |
| Keywords: | Common Property Resource Development,Forestry,Municipal Housing and Land,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Urban Housing |
| Date: | 2007–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4363&r=afr |
| By: | Suwa Eisenmann, Akiko; Verdier, Thierry |
| Abstract: | The paper surveys the interactions between aid and trade, distinguishing between policies and outcomes as well as between various instruments. It first discusses the theoretical literature, focusing on the causal impact of aid on the recipient’s welfare via the trade channel, before turning to the empirical and institutional literature on the topic. It dentifies the main conclusions that are suggested by the literature and discusses the gaps that need to be filled out in order to get plausible policy recommendations. |
| Keywords: | aid; development; trade |
| JEL: | F13 F35 O10 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6465&r=afr |