|
on Africa |
Issue of 2007‒04‒28
twenty-one papers chosen by Suzanne McCoskey Foreign Service Institute, US Department of State |
By: | Murray Leibbrandt; Laura Poswell; Pranushka Naidoo; Matthew Welch; Ingrid Woolard (University of Cape Town) |
Abstract: | Abstract: The paper analyses poverty and inequality changes in South Africa for the period 1996 to 2001 using Census data. To gain a broader picture of well-being in South Africa, both income-based and access-based measurement approaches are employed. At the national level, findings from the income-based approach show that inequality has unambiguously increased from 1996 to 2001. As regards population group inequality, within-group inequality has increased; while between-group inequality has decreased (inequality has also increased in each province and across the rural/urban divide). The poverty analysis reveals that poverty has worsened in the nation, particularly for Africans. Provincially, the Eastern Cape and Limpopo have the highest poverty rates while the Western Cape and Gauteng have the lowest poverty rates. Poverty differs across the urban-rural divide with rural areas being relatively worse off than urban areas. However, due to the large extent of rural-urban migration, the proportion of the poor in rural areas is declining. The access-based approach focuses on type of dwelling, access to water, energy for lighting, energy for cooking, sanitation and refuse removal. The data reveal significant improvements in these access measures between 1996 and 2001. The proportion of households occupying traditional dwellings has decreased while the proportion of households occupying formal dwellings has risen slightly (approximately two-thirds of households occupy formal dwellings). Access to basic services has improved, especially with regard to access to electricity for lighting and access to telephones. On a provincial level, Limpopo and the Eastern Cape display the poorest performance in terms of access to basic services. The paper concludes by contrasting the measured changes in well-being that emerge from the income and access approaches. While income measures show worsening well-being via increases in income poverty and inequality, access measures show that well-being in South Africa has improved in a number of important dimensions. |
Keywords: | South Africa: poverty, well-being, inequality, Census data, income-based and access-based measurement |
JEL: | A1 |
Date: | 2005–06 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:9629&r=afr |
By: | Rosa Dias; Dorrit Posel (Division of Economics,University of KwaZulu-Natal) |
Abstract: | Abstract: This paper investigates the relationship between education and unemployment in Post-Apartheid South Africa, and probes the argument that employment growth has been inhibited particularly by skills constraints. We use probit regression analysis to show that higher education protected against unemployment in both 1995 and 2003, and that overall, the relative benefits to tertiary education rose over the period. We show also that these aggregate trends mask substantial variation among race groups and within race groups, among men and women. However, after taking into account changes in the survey instruments used to measure employment, we find only modest evidence of skills-intensive employment growth. Rather, the increase in formally qualified labour was considerably larger than the increase in demand for skilled and semi-skilled labour over the period, and so unemployment rates even among graduates increased over the period. |
Keywords: | South Africa: education, unemployment, skills constraints |
JEL: | A1 |
Date: | 2007–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:9626&r=afr |
By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
Abstract: | Many developing countries have experienced significant developments in their telecommunications network. Countries in Africa are no exception to this. The paper examines what factor facilitates most network expansion using micro data from 45 fixed-line and mobile telephone operators in 18 African countries. In theory the telecommunications sector has two sector-specific characteristics: network externalities and discrimina tory pricing. It finds that many telephone operators in the region use peak and off-peak prices and termination-based price discrimination, but are less likely to rely on strategic fee schedules such as tie-in arrangements. The estimated demand function based on a discreet consumer choice model indicates that termination-based discriminatory pricing can facilitate network expansion. It also shows that the implied price-cost margins are significantly high. Thus, price liberalization could be conducive to development of the telecommunications network led by the private sector. Some countries in Africa are still imposing certain price restrictions. But more important, it remains a policy issue how the authorities should ensure reciprocal access between operators at reasonable cost. |
Keywords: | Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory & Research,Access to Markets,Rural Communications,Infrastructure Regulation |
Date: | 2007–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4200&r=afr |
By: | Fabrice Murtin (GREDI, Université de Sherbrooke); Federica Marzo (CREST, INSEE) |
Abstract: | In this paper we assess the causal impact of HIV/AIDS on monetary poverty using a panel data-set from South Africa and modeling the consequences of the illness on both earnings and transfers. Two major econometric problems are likely to bias the estimation: endogeneity of the HIV/AIDS dummy variable, and autoselection of the individuals participating to the labour market or to transfers networks. We solve both of them by proposing an original framework where we include correlated fixed-effects both in the level and the participation equations, which are estimated simultaneously with original Bayesian methods. The procedure is tested and very well-behaved. Splitting the sample into urban and rural population, we show that HIV/AIDS has a significant but moderate impact on poverty for urban population, because transfers partly compensate the fall of earnings entailed by the decrease in labour market participation. On the contrary, HIV/AIDS has an important impact on poverty for the rural population because it causes a fall of transfers. Surprisingly the effect on earnings is not significant . We argue that those results can be explained by the existence of an efficient public safety net in urban settings, while in contrast private transfers are subject to moral hazard and imperfect commitment that characterize risk-sharing in rural settings. |
Keywords: | DHIV/AIDS, MCMC, Selection Models |
JEL: | C3 D1 I1 |
Date: | 2007 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:07-08&r=afr |
By: | Geeta Kingdon; John Knight (Department of Economics, University of Oxford) |
Abstract: | Abstract: Using a South African data set, the paper poses six questions about the determinants of subjective well-being. Much of the paper is concerned with the role of relative concepts. We find that comparator income – measured as average income of others in the local residential cluster – enters the household’s utility function positively but that income of more distant others (others in the district or province) enters negatively. The ordered probit equations indicate that, as well as comparator groups based on spatial proximity, race-based comparator groups are important in the racially divided South African society. It is also found that relative income is more important to happiness at higher levels of absolute income. Potential explanations of these results, and their implications, are considered. |
Keywords: | South Africa: poverty, well-being, absolute income, household’s utility function |
JEL: | A1 |
Date: | 2005–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:9628&r=afr |
By: | Collier, Paul; Venables, Anthony J. |
Abstract: | This paper argues that the contribution of trade preferences to economic development needs to be reappraised in light of the growth of globalized trade in manufactures. Trade preferences may be able to act as a catalyst for manufacturing exports, leading to rapid growth in exports and employment. To do so, preferences need to be designed to be consistent with international trade in fragmented ‘tasks’ (as opposed to complete products) and need to be open to countries with sufficient levels of complementary inputs such as skills and infrastructure. Recent experience with the African Growth and Opportunities Act shows that, in the right conditions, Sub-Saharan African countries have had large manufacturing export supply response to trade preferences. |
Keywords: | AGOA; EBA; export diversification; rules of origin; Trade preferences |
JEL: | F12 F13 F14 O14 |
Date: | 2007–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6262&r=afr |
By: | David Tschirley (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); John Staatz (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University); Cynthia Donovan (Department of Agricultural Economics, Michigan State University) |
Abstract: | When an emergency occurs, agencies must make quick decisions on how to help people facing severe food insecurity. This paper addresses the challenges of designing appropriate responses that are linked to identified needs of affected households and individuals. The primary goal of any response is to save lives now and protect the food security of households and individuals now and in the future. However, instrumental goals and the specific means of achieving them are varied, and must be responsive to the setting in which the emergency occurs. The paper conceives the costs and benefits of a response as the product of how efficiently a resource is delivered (resource transfer efficiency) and the effectiveness of the resource and its mode of delivery in achieving the objectives of the response (resource use efficiency). Those designing emergency response operations need to focus on the combination of these efficiencies,not just on one of them. |
Keywords: | Africa, food security, food policy, food aid, emergency response |
JEL: | Q18 |
Date: | 2007 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msu:idpwrk:092&r=afr |
By: | Zevenbergen, Jaap; Holden, Stein; Ali, Daniel Ayalew; Deininger, Klaus |
Abstract: | Although many African countries have recently adopted highly innovative and pro-poor land laws, lack of implementation thwarts their potentially far-reaching impact on productivity, poverty reduction, and governance. The authors use a representative household survey from Ethiopia where, over a short period, certificates to more than 20 million plots were issued to describe the certification process, explore its incidence and preliminary impact, and quantify the costs. While this provides many suggestions to ensure sustainability and enhance impact, Ethiopia ' s highly cost-effective first-time registration process provides important lessons. |
Keywords: | Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Common Property Resource Development,Land Use and Policies,Municipal Housing and Land |
Date: | 2007–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4218&r=afr |
By: | Uwe Böwer (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); André Geis (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.); Adalbert Winkler (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.) |
Abstract: | Commodity prices play an important role in economic developments in most of the 24 Western and Central African (WCA) countries covered in this paper. It is confirmed that in the light of rising commodity prices between 1999 and 2005, net oil exporters recorded strong growth rates while net oil-importing countries – albeit benefiting from increases in their major non-oil commodity export prices – displayed somewhat lower growth. For most WCA economies, inflation rates appear less affected by commodity price changes and more determined by exchange rate regimes as well as monetary and fiscal policies. While passthrough effects from international to domestic energy prices were significant, notably in oilimporting countries, second-round effects on overall prices seem limited. Governments of oil-rich countries reacted prudently to windfall revenues, partly running sizable fiscal surpluses. A favourable supply response to rising spending as well as sterilisation efforts and increasing money demand also helped to dampen inflationary pressures. However, substantial excess reserves of commercial banks reflect challenges in financial sector developments and the effectiveness of monetary policy in many WCA countries. Given currently widelyused fixed exchange rate regimes, fiscal policy will continue to carry the main burden of macroeconomic adjustment and of sustaining non-inflationary growth, which remains the key policy challenge facing WCA authorities. |
Date: | 2007–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:20070060&r=afr |
By: | Bundervoet, Tom; Verwimp, Philip; Akresh, Richard |
Abstract: | Economic shocks at birth have lasting effects on children ' s health several years after the shock. The authors calculate height for age z-scores for children under age five using data from a Rwandan nationally representative household survey conducted in 1992. They exploit district and time variation in crop failure and civil conflict to measure the impact of exogenous shocks that children experience at birth on their height several years later. They find that boys and girls born after the shock in regions experiencing civil conflict are both negatively affected with height for age z-scores 0.30 and 0.72 standard deviations lower, respectively. Conversely, only girls are negat ively affected by crop failure, with these girls exhibiting 0.41 standard deviation lower height for age z-scores and the impact is worse for girls in poor households. Results are robust to using sibling difference estimators, household level production, and rainfall shocks as alternative measures of crop failure. |
Keywords: | Youth and Governance,Population Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction,Children and Youth,Adolescent Health |
Date: | 2007–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4208&r=afr |
By: | Emily Oster |
Abstract: | The response of sexual behavior to HIV in Africa is an important input to predicting the path of the epidemic and to focusing prevention efforts. Existing estimates suggest limited behavioral response, but fail to take into account possible differences across individuals. A simple model of sexual behavior choice among forward-looking individuals implies that behavioral response should be larger for those with lower non-HIV mortality risks and those who are richer. I estimate behavioral response using a new instrumental variables strategy, instrumenting for HIV prevalence with distance to the origin of the virus. I find low response on average, consistent with existing literature, but larger responses for those who face lower non-HIV mortality and for those who are richer. I also show suggestive evidence, based on a very simple calibration, that the magnitude of behavioral response in Africa is of a similar order of magnitude to that among gay men in the United States, once differences in income and life expectancy are taken into account. |
JEL: | I10 J17 O12 |
Date: | 2007–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13049&r=afr |
By: | Geeta Kingdon; John Knight (Department of Economics, University of Oxford) |
Abstract: | Abstract: The conventional approach of economists to the measurement of poverty in poor countries is to use measures of income or consumption. This has been challenged by those who favour broader criteria for poverty and its avoidance. These include the fulfilment of ‘basic needs’, the ‘capabilities’ to be and to do things of intrinsic worth, and safety from insecurity and vulnerability. This paper asks: to what extent are these different concepts measurable, to what extent are they competing and to what extent complementary, and is it possible for them to be accommodated within an encompassing framework? There are two remarkable gaps in the rapidly growing literature on subjective well-being. First, reflecting the availability of data, there is little research on poor countries. Second, within any country, there is little research on the relationship between well-being and the notion of poverty. This paper attempts to fill these gaps. Any attempt to define poverty involves a value judgement as to what constitutes a good quality of life or a bad one. We argue that an approach which examines the individual’s own perception of well-being is less imperfect, or more quantifiable, or both, as a guide to forming that value judgement than are the other potential approaches.We develop a methodology for using subjective well-being as the criterion for poverty, and illustrate its use by reference to a South African data set containing much socio-economic information on the individual, the household and the community, as well as information on reported subjective well-being. We conclude that it is possible to view subjective well-being as an encompassing concept, which permits us to quantify the relevance and importance of the other approaches and of their component variables. The estimated subjective well-being functions for South Africa contain some variables corresponding to the income approach, some to the basic needs (or physical functioning) approach, some to the relative (or social functioning) approach, and some to the security approach. Thus, our methodology effectively provides weights of the relative importance of these various components of subjective well-being poverty. |
Keywords: | South Africa: poverty, well-being, measures of income, consumption |
JEL: | A1 |
Date: | 2005–07 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctw:wpaper:9627&r=afr |
By: | Iimi, Atsushi |
Abstract: | Trade preferences are expected to facilitate global market integration and offer the potential for rapid economic growth and poverty reduction for developing countries. But those preferences do not always guarantee sustainable external competitiveness to beneficiary countries and may risk discouraging their efforts to improve underlying productivity. This paper examines the EU beef import market where several African countries have been granted preferential treatment. The estimation results suggest that profitability improvement achieved by countries under the Cotonou protocol compares unfavorably with the returns to nonbeneficiary countries in recent years. Rather, it shows that public infrastructure, such as paved roads, has an important role in lowering production costs and thus increasing external competitiveness and market shares. |
Keywords: | Livestock & Animal Husbandry,Economic Theory & Research,Markets and Market Access,Transport Economics Policy & Planning,Free Trade |
Date: | 2007–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4201&r=afr |
By: | Fida Karam (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Bernard Decaluwé (Université de Laval - Département d'Economie) |
Abstract: | Recent economic literature on the impact of migration on the country of origin has not successfully analyzed the effect of migration on unemployment and wage rate especially in urban area. Using a detailed CGE model applied to the moroccan economy, we are able to show that if we take into account simultaneously moroccan emigration to European Union, immigration from Sub-Saharan Africa into Morocco and rural-urban migration, the impact on wage rate and unemployment is ambiguous. |
Keywords: | Imperfect labor market, migration, computable general equilibrium model. |
JEL: | C68 F22 J44 J61 J64 |
Date: | 2007–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:bla07016&r=afr |
By: | Jeffrey Frankel |
Abstract: | This paper is an econometric investigation of the determinants of the real value of the South African rand over the period 1984-2006. The results show a relatively good fit. As so often with exchange rate equations, there is substantial weight on the lagged exchange rate, which can be attributed to a momentum component. Nevertheless, economic fundamentals are significant and important. This is especially true of an index of the real prices of South African mineral commodities, which even drives out real income as a significant determinant of the rand's value. An implication is that the 2003-2006 real appreciation can be attributed to the Dutch Disease. In other respects, the rand behaves like currencies of industrialized countries with well-developed financial markets. In particular, high South African interest rates raise international demand for the rand and lead to real appreciation, controlling for a forward-looking measure of expected inflation and a measure of default risk or country risk. It is in the latter respects, in particular, that the paper hopes to have improved on earlier studies of the rand. |
JEL: | F31 |
Date: | 2007–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13050&r=afr |
By: | Sangraula, Prem; Chen, Shaohua; Ravallion, Martin |
Abstract: | The authors provide new evidence on the extent to which absolute poverty has urbanized in the developing world, and the role that population urbanization has played in overall poverty reduction. They find that one-quarter of the world ' s consumption poor live in urban areas and that the proportion has been rising over time. By fostering economic growth, urbanization helped reduce absolute poverty in the aggregate but did little for urban poverty. Over 1993-2002, the count of the " $1 a day " poor fell by 150 million in rural areas but rose by 50 million in urban areas. The poor have been urbanizing even more rapidly than the population as a whole. Looking forward, the recent pace of urbanization and current forecasts for urban population growth imply that a majority of the poor will still live in rural areas for many decades to come. There are marked regional differences: Latin America has the most urbanized poverty problem, East Asia has the least; there has been a " ruralization " of poverty in Eastern Europe and Central Asia; in marked contrast to other regions, Africa ' s urbanization process has not been associated with falling overall poverty. |
Keywords: | Rural Poverty Reduction,Population Policies,Pro-Poor Growth and Inequality,Poverty Reduction Strategies |
Date: | 2007–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4199&r=afr |
By: | Josselin Thuilliez (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne) |
Abstract: | This paper explores the link between P. Falciparum malaria - most of malaria morbidity and mortality is due to the malignant Plasmodium Falciparum - and primary education in terms of school performances at the macroeconomic stage. Cross-country regression analysis shows that the relation between school results (measured by repetition and completion rates) and the P. Falciparum malaria index is strong. The results implies that the achievement of the education Millennium Development Goals will require more than just focusing on expenditure in primary education. It does not imply that resources in education are unnecessary but that increasing resources in education and improving education resources management alone are unlikely to be sufficient. This paper suggests that health conditions and especially diseases that alter cognitive capacities of children such as malaria should be taken into account much more seriously. This study also sees the need to place emphasis on research that will improve the quality of interventions to prevent malaria. Specific education expenditure to face Malaria should be examined in addition to health policies. |
Keywords: | Malaria incidence, human capital, development. |
JEL: | O15 I10 I20 |
Date: | 2007–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:bla07013&r=afr |
By: | Mohamed Ayadi; AbdelRahmen El Lahga; Naouel Chtioui |
Abstract: | Dans ce travail nous construisons un indice composite de bien-être (ICBE) basé sur des attributs non monétaires des conditions de vie des ménages afin d'analyser l'évolution de la pauvreté et des inégalités en Tunisie, entre 1988 et 2001, dans une perspective multidimensionnelle. Nous montrons que la pauvreté a connu une baisse significative durant la période d'étude, bien que les disparités régionales et celles entre milieux de résidence aient connu une certaine constance. La pauvreté est restée toujours un phénomène rural et les régions les plus pauvres du pays, en l'occurence le nord (NO) et le centre ouest (CO) sont toujours les régions les plus démunies. Par ailleurs, l'amélioration des conditions de logement et l'accès aux moyens de communications sont des options non exploitées pouvant avoir des effets marginaux assez importants dans la réduction de la pauvreté. Par ailleurs les inégalités ont connu une forte baisse durant la période d'étude. Toutefois, les régions les plus pauvres et le milieu rural contribuent le plus aux inégalités totales. La décomposition des inégalités par source motnre que l'accès aux moyens de communication et la possession des biens durables contribuent fortement aux écarts de bien-être entre les ménages. |
Keywords: | pauvreté, inégalité, Tunisie |
JEL: | D31 D63 I30 I32 |
Date: | 2007 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:pmmacr:2007-05&r=afr |
By: | Abdoulaye Diagne; François Joseph Cabral; Fatou Cisse; Mamadou Dansokho; Samba Ba |
Abstract: | Dans le cadre de l'intégration économique sous-régionale conduite par l'UÉMOA, le Sénégal a adopté depuis janvier 2002 l'instauration d'un tarif extérieur commun (TEC) et l'harmonisation de la fiscalité. Ces mesures ont fortement réduit la protection de son économie (baisse de 50% des droits de douane) et renforcé sa fiscalité intérieure. Ces réformes commerciales provoquent d'importants effets d'équilibre général. Nous évaluons dans ce papier, l'impact de scénario de libéralisation des échanges au Sénégal sur le bien-être des ménages ruraux et urbains. Il ressort des résultats que dans la mise en oeuvre du TEC, le Gouvernement a davantage privilégié l'amélioration des finances publiques par rapport aux effets négatifs qu'aurait une plus forte TVA sur la répartition des revenus et le bien-être des ménages. Cet arbitrage s'inscrit ainsi dans la tradition des politiques de stabilisation et d'ajustement interne qui ont toujours été marquées par la primauté de la restauration des finances publiques sur l'amélioration de la compétitivité et la relance de la croissance économique. |
Keywords: | Modèle d'équilibre général calculable, analyse de pauvreté, politique commerciale, distribution des revenus, intégration régionale |
JEL: | D58 D31 F41 I32 |
Date: | 2007 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2007-15&r=afr |
By: | Davies, Victor A. B. |
Abstract: | The author provides empirical evidence on the effects of inflation on post-war capital flight flows. He tests the hypothesis that inflation has a positive additional impact on capital flight flows after war. He uses a new panel dataset of 77 developing countries, of which 35 experienced at least one episode of war between 1971 and 2000. The author uses a range of estimation methods and four capital flight measures-Cline, World Bank Residual, Morgan Guarantee, and Dooley. The results consistently support the research hypothesis: Post-war inflation increases annual capital flight flows by about 0.005 to 0.01 percentage points of GDP. This ef fect is substantial in total at high inflation rates. The implication is that low inflation helps to curb capital flight in post-conflict economies. |
Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Banks & Banking Reform,Investment and Investment Climate,Settlement of Investment Disputes,Pro-Poor Growth and Inequality |
Date: | 2007–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4210&r=afr |
By: | Xavier Le Roy (Dynamiques environnementales entre forêt, agriculture et biodiversité : des pratiques locales sur la nature aux politiques de conservation - [IRD : UR168]) |
Abstract: | Deux passages, à quatorze ans d'intervalle, dans deux villages sénoufo du nord de la Côte-d'ivoire, permettent d'analyser les évolutions survenues et de mettre en évidence l'écart entre deux agricultures pratiquées. Syonfan est dynamique, avec une augmentation importante des superficies cultivées, rendue possible par le développement de la mécanisation. Karakpo est plus timide dans l'acceptation de l'innovation : stagnation de la mécanisation et progression modérée des superficies. Paradoxalement, les jachères précédant la mise en culture des parcelles sont plus longues dans le premier village, où la pression foncière est pourtant plus forte. Le surpâturage, dû à l'installation de troupeaux peuhl en est peut-être responsable. La seconde localité, dont la disponibilité en terres est importante, voit par contre un développement naturel de la végétation après abandon d'une parcelle. |
Keywords: | AGRICULTURE TRADITIONNELLE ; TERROIR ; SYSTEME AGRAIRE ; JACHERE ; INTENSIFICATION DE L'AGRICULTURE ; COTE D'IVOIRE NORD |
Date: | 2007–04–17 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:ird-00142182_v1&r=afr |