|
on Africa |
|
Issue of 2006‒06‒03
nineteen papers chosen by Suzanne McCoskey Foreign Service Institute, US Department of State |
| By: | Sumon Kumar Bhaumik; ; |
| Abstract: | In an attempt to better understand the impact of the World Bank on human development in poor countries, we use cross-country data on African countries, for the 1990-2002 period, to examine this relationship. The coefficient estimates of our parsimonious fixed-effects models indicate that while loans and grants of the Bank have had a positive impact on some relatively short-term indicators of health and education in an average African country, there is little evidence to suggest that such loans and grants have helped these countries to consolidate on the short-term gains. |
| Keywords: | Development, Health, Education, World Bank, Africa |
| JEL: | O15 O19 O55 P45 |
| Date: | 2005–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wdi:papers:2005-784&r=afr |
| By: | Kisukyabo Simwaka (Reserve Bank of Malawi, P.O. Box 30063, Lilongwe, Malawi) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the main determinants of real effective exchange rate in Malawi and South Africa. In our empirical analysis, we conducted unit root and cointegration test in order to determine the time series properties of the data and establish whether there is a long run relationship between real effective exchange rate and explanatory variables. Having ascertained that almost all variables are integrated of order one and cointegrated, an error correction model is formulated and estimated for the two real effective exchange rate equations using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. The empirical results for both Malawi and South Africa are highly supportive of the real exchange rate model. In particular, we find a negative and significant relationship between real effective exchange rate and the degree of openness for both countries. On the other hand, while there is an inverse relationship between real effective exchange rate and governmernt consumption in the case of Malawi, a positive ralationship between real effective exchange rate and government consumption obtains in the case of South Africa. Additionally, whereas there is a positive relationship between real effective exchange rate and international capital flows in the case of Malawi, a negative relationship obtains in the case of South Africa.. However, results from both countries indicate a positive relationship between real exchange rate one hand and excess domestic credit and lagged real effective exchange rate on the other hand. They also indicate a negative relationship between real effective exchange rate and nominal devaluation in both countries. The study yields some policy implications. First, it has been learnt that excessive domestic credit causes the real exchange rate to appreciate for both countries. This therefore calls for prudent fiscal and monetary policy measures. Such measures include mopping out excess liquidity from the market to stem the growth of money supply. For both countries, the most powerful policy is just an intermediate policy and can only be successful if there is fiscal discipline. With fiscal discipline there can be no excess liquidity. Second, the study has found that policies aimed at eliminating trade restrictions depreciate the REER. One policy implication that can be drawn from this finding is that the government should continue implementing trade liberalisation policies that it had already started in 1988. Furthermore, developments in the external sector of the economy (changes in terms of trade, degree of openness anf international capital flows) which are not under the control of domestic authorities seemingly contribute more to changes in real effective exchange rate. The policy implications are that the government ability in influencing the behaviour of real effective exchange rate is limited. This is because the ability of a small open economy like that of Malawi to insulate itself from external shock is limited, at best. In the long- run however, appropriate structural changes and conducive competitive policy could be designed and implemented. These may include export diversification (to counter deteriorating terms of trade in specific commodities) and implementing measures to limit market imperfection. Based on the available evidence, it can be concluded that macroeconomic fundamentals play a vital role in explaining changes in real effective exchange rate in both Malawi and South Africa. Key words: real effective exchange rate, stationarity, cointegration |
| Keywords: | real effective exchange rate, stationarity, cointegration |
| JEL: | F1 F2 |
| Date: | 2004–07–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0407006&r=afr |
| By: | Kisu Simwaka (Reserve Bank of Malawi, P.O. Box 30063, Lilongwe, Malawi) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the main determinants of real effective exchange rate in Malawi and South Africa. In our empirical analysis, we conducted unit root and cointegration test in order to determine the time series properties of the data and establish whether there is a long run relationship between real effective exchange rate and explanatory variables. Having ascertained that almost all variiables are integrated of order one and cointegrated, an error correction model is formulated and estimated for the two real effective exchange rate equations using the Ordinary Least Squre (OLS) method. The empirical results for both Malawi and South Africa are highly supportive of the real exchange rate model. In particular, we find a negative and significant relationship between real effective exchange rate and the degree of openness for both countries. On the other hand, while there is an inverse relationship between real effetcive exchange rate and governmernt consumption in the case of Malawi, a positive ralationship between real effective exchange rate and government consumption obtains in the case of South Africa. Additionally, whereas there is a positive relationship between real effetcive exchange rate and international capital flows in the case of Malawi, a negative realtionship obtains in the case of South Africa.. However, results from both countries indicate a positive relationship between real exchange rate one hand and excess domestic credit and lagged real effective exchange rate on the other hand. They also indicate a negative relationship between real effective exchange rate and nominal devaluation in both countries. The study yields some policy implications. First, it has been learnt that excessive domestic credit causes the real exchange rate to appreciate for both countries. This therefore calls for prudent fiscal and monetary policy measures. Such measures include mopping out excess liquidity from the market to stem the growth of money supply. For both countries, the most powerful policy is just an intermediate policy and can only be successful if there is fiscal discipline. With fiscal discipline there can be no excess liquidity. Second, the study has found that policies aimed at eliminating trade restrictions depreciate the REER. One policy implication that can be drawn from this finding is that the government should continue implementing trade liberalisation policies that it had already started in 1988. Furthermore, developments in the external sector of the economy (changes in terms of trade, degree of openness anf international capital flows) which are not under the control of domestic authorities seemingly contribute more to changes in real effective exchange rate. The policy implications are that the government ability in influencing the behaviour of real effective exchange rate is limited. This is because the ability of a small open economy like that of Malawi to insulate itself from external shock is limited, at best. In the long- run however, appropriate structural changes and conducive competitive policy could be designed and implemented. These may include export diversification (to counter deteorating terms of trade in specific commodities) and implementing measures to limit market imperfection. Based on the available evidence, it can be concluded that macroeconomic fundamentals play a vital role in explaining changes in real effective exchange rate in both Malawi and South Africa. Keywords: real effective exchange rate, cointegration; error correction model |
| Keywords: | real effective exchange rate, cointegration; error correction model |
| JEL: | F3 F4 |
| Date: | 2004–07–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0407009&r=afr |
| By: | Bruno Venditto (ISSM); Dirk Hanshom (NEPRU); John Ashipala (NEPRU) |
| Abstract: | Namibia does not represent a case of structural adjustment, that is, a kind of economic reform in a situation of crisis with a high leverage of external actors (IMF, World Bank). Rather, the agenda for economic reform is set by the government, and addresses the problems of the high poverty and extreme inequality of a dualistic economy which emanate from a mineral-based enclave economy and from a past policy of racial segregation (apartheid), which restricted the benefits of education and other social services to the privileged. Government policy is aimed at promoting growth and employment and reducing poverty and inequality. Key instruments for achieving these aims are high expenditures on education, health, a universal pension system, and other social services. Further to this, measures have been taken to create employment and to redress inequities on the labour market. At the same time, the Namibian Government follows a market-oriented and open economic policy, based on acknowledgement of the fact that the problems of poverty and inequality can only be overcome in the context of economic growth. The aims of the government include a balanced budget, a conservative approach to foreign debt, and public sector reform. However, progress in the achievement of these remains limited. Namibia’s economic record since independence in 1990 compares favourably to both the pre-independence decade and the sub-Saharan African (SSA) average, but remains inadequate to the task of significantly raising per capita incomes - in fact, since 1994 per capita incomes have been stagnating. Independent Namibia inherited a highly segmented labour market, where every defined ‘ethnic group’ had differentiated access to employment and to wages, with a major underlying factor being unequal access to education. Figures do not exist for tracing the record in social development precisely, but it is clear that poverty and inequality remain a major problem. Unemployment has increased, as the declining importance of agricultural employment has not been compensated by commensurate increases in employment in the industrial and services sectors. Namibia’s formal sector is characterised by its large size and high incomes. Sheltered by the high tariffs of the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), these are increasing and outstripping productivity increases. They also reflect the high degree of unionisation and the scarcity of skills. Then there are the small non-agricultural informal sector and agriculture, with low, market-determined incomes. Poverty is concentrated among the rural population (subsistence farmers, agricultural and other workers). Significant progress has been made when one compares the present to the inequitable situation of the past. However, despite high expenditures in the social sectors, the outcome remains limited, due to inefficiencies. Confrontational labour relations were inherited and have not yet been overcome, despite a policy of reconciliation and collective bargaining, and are identified as a key problem by investors. A related problem is that the trade unions represent mainly the predominantly non-poor urban workers and employees. The involvement of labour market institutions in the process of economic reform is limited, due to two principal factors. Firstly, the institutions do not yet represent the social partners in their totality, and secondly, this capacity of economic policy analysis is itself limited. Measures to augment the role of social partners in the formulation of economic policy reform include the following: • strengthening the voice of presently underrepresented groups (low-paid workers, especially in the informal sector; informal sector operators) • strengthening the capacity of the social partners in economic policy analysis • strengthening institutionalised tripartite mechanisms • providing better information to the general public (e.g. capacity- building of economic policy journalists) • providing timely and comprehensive economic information (statistics) to facilitate an informed debate). |
| Keywords: | Development Cooperation , Southern Africa, Labour market Economic Reforms |
| JEL: | O P |
| Date: | 2004–08–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0408006&r=afr |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Lachaud (CED, IFReDE/GRES, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV) |
| Abstract: | Based on the data of the Demographic and Health Survey, and of the Household Priority Survey, carried out in 2003, the present study, examining the factors of the HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, provides two conclusions. Firstly, the fight against poverty is not necessarily a means of reducing at the same time in a drastic way the HIV/AIDS prevalence, an assertion based on several elements of empirical analysis. First of all, the concentration curve, measuring the « socioeconomic » inequality of the seroprevalence, is « pro-poor ». Then, the micro-econometric estimates of the probit models suggest a positive relation between the HIV prevalence of the adult women and men, and the standard of living of the individuals. At the same time, the probit models highlight a probability of HIV prevalence increasing with : (i) the age, and ; (ii) the localization in Ouagadougou, the capital, and in the majority of the areas of the west and south-west of the country, compared to the other zones. On the other hand, the sexual relations with condoms reduce the chances of seroprevalence, an effect growing with the wealth of the households. Lastly, the macro-econometric approach reveals the existence of a positive (negative) relation between, on the one hand, the level of the regional HIV prevalence, and, on the other hand, the average monetary provincial standard of living (the poverty) of the households. At the same time, the relation between the HIV prevalence and the poverty, apprehended at the regional level, is not linear. Moreover, the estimate of the spatial econometrics models indicates an impact of the crisis of Côte d’Ivoire on the HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, consecutively with the massive return of a large number of refugees, displaced or repatriated persons originating from Côte d’Ivoire – in particular, since 2000 –, country where the seroprevalence is, on average, five times higher than in Burkina Faso. Secondly, and correlatively, the relation between the HIV prevalence and poverty is questioned. First of all, some structural factors could contribute to skew the relation between the resources of the households and the prevalence of the HIV/AIDS. On the one hand, the persistence of cognitive and behavioral factors inherent to the traditional society, in spite of the high rate of economic growth per capita which prevailed during two last decades. In particular, the social construction of the female attributes and roles confers to men a statute of « decision-makers » with regard to the sexual intercourse, while the persistence of the secular beliefs contributes to minimize the perception of the HIV/SIDA in terms of risks, independently of the standard of living. In addition, the two geographical subsets where the HIV prevalence is higher than the national average, tend to have higher regional averages per capita expenditure, compared to the other zones. In addition, the enclavement of Burkina Faso required a development of the road and railway traffic with the countries bordering, in particular Côte d’Ivoire. So, it may be that the structural conditions of the process of development of Burkina Faso, concomitant with significant flows of exchange of goods, services and labour with a country where the prevalence of the HIV is particularly high, constitute an element of explanation of the positive relation between the resources of the households and the HIV seroprevalence. Then, factors related to the conjuncture probably contributed to reinforce the opposite relation between the HIV seroprevalence and poverty, the macro-econometric analysis highlighting a direct relation between the massive return of the migrants of Côte d'Ivoire and the level of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso. (Full text in english) |
| JEL: | I12 I32 |
| Date: | 2005–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mon:ceddtr:113&r=afr |
| By: | Axel Dreher; Jan-Egbert Sturm |
| Abstract: | Using panel data for 188 countries over the period 1970-2002 this paper empirically analyzes the influence of the IMF and the World Bank on voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. Countries receiving adjustment programs and larger non-concessional loans from the World Bank vote more frequently in line with the average G7 country. The same is true for countries obtaining non-concessional IMF programs. Regarding voting coincidence with the US, World Bank (concessional and non-concessional) loans have a significant impact, while the IMF has not. These results are robust to the inclusion of control variables and method of estimation. |
| Keywords: | IMF, World Bank, UN General Assembly, voting, aid |
| JEL: | F33 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1724&r=afr |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Lachaud (CED / IFReDE-GRES, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV) |
| Abstract: | L’étude propose de contribuer au débat sur la croissance pro-pauvres au Burkina Faso, et présente une nouvelle évidence empirique, fondée sur une approche ex ante du bien-être à partir de données transversales, permettant de lever partiellement l’« axiome d’anonymat » – identifier les effets de croissance et de distribution selon les formes de pauvreté et de vulnérabilité, entre 1994-95 et 2003. Premièrement, au niveau de l’ensemble de l’économie, la mise en évidence du caractère pro-pauvres de la croissance négative des dépenses, en présence de l’axiome d’anonymat, imputable à l’interférence positive de l’inégalité, contribuant à réduire la progression des privations, contraste avec les enseignements de l’approche ex ante du bien-être, suggérant un processus de croissance, certes pro-pauvres, mais plus complexe. En effet, la baisse de la pauvreté durable et transitoire involutive est due à l’interférence positive de l’inégalité, ce qui signifie que la récession des dépenses des ménages au cours de la période a été fortement pro-pauvres durables et pro-pauvres transitoires involutifs. Par contre, les changements inhérents à l’inégalité n’ont contribué qu’à freiner marginalement la progression de la pauvreté transitoire évolutive – processus faiblement pro-pauvres. Deuxièmement, l’analyse selon le milieu révèle également un processus de croissance contrasté en fonction des formes de pauvreté. D’une part, dans les villes, alors que l’approche en termes de bien-être ex post évoque l’existence d’une croissance « anti-pauvres », la récession des dépenses des ménages urbains au cours de la période a été seulement anti-pauvres durables, la dynamique des formes transitoires de pauvreté exhibant un processus de croissance faiblement pro-pauvres. D’autre part, en milieu rural, l’analyse en présence de l’axiome d’anonymat enseigne que les changements inhérents à l’inégalité ont contribué à freiner la progression du ratio de pauvreté globale. Or, si la dynamique de pauvreté durable et transitoire involutive traduit un processus de croissance pro-pauvres, s’agissant de la pauvreté transitoire évolutive, un processus de croissance anti-pauvres semble prévaloir. Les courbes de croissance de pauvreté illustrent ces évolutions. Ainsi, la distinction des formes de pauvreté, fondée sur une dissociation ex ante du bien-être et de la vulnérabilité, contribue à mieux caractériser le processus de croissance. Par exemple, au niveau de l’ensemble de l’économie, l’accroissement observé du ratio de pauvreté entre 1994-95 et 2003 est expliqué par la progression de la pauvreté transitoire évolutive, c’est-à-dire la réduction du bien-être des individus ayant au moins 60 pour cent de chance de ne plus être pauvres à court terme. Or, c’est précisément pour ces groupes que le processus de croissance a été très faiblement pro-pauvres. Néanmoins, les données disponibles ne permettent que de lever partiellement l’axiome d’anonymat, puisqu’il est impossible d’appréhender la mobilité ascendante ou descendante, ainsi que la variation des gains des individus. The study proposes to contribute to the debate on pro-poor growth in Burkina Faso, and presents anew empirical evidence, based on an ex ante approach of welfare with cross-sections data, allowing to eliminate partially the « anonymity axiom » – the specification of the effects of growth and distribution according to the forms of poverty and vulnerability, between 1994-95 and 2003. Firstly, for the whole of the economy, the description of the pro-poor character of the negative growth of the expenditure, in the presence of the anonymity axiom, due to the positive interference of the inequality, contributing to reduce the progression of the deprivations, contrasts with the lesson of the ex ante approach of welfare, indicating a more complex process of pro-poor growth. Indeed, the fall of durable and involutive transient poverty is due to the positive interference of the inequality, which means that the recession of the households’ expenditure during the period was strongly pro-poor durable and pro-poor involutive transient. On the other hand, the changes in relation to the inequality contributed only marginally to slow down the progression of the evolutive transient poverty – process slightly pro-poor. Secondly, the analysis according to the areas also reveals a process of growth contrasted according to the forms of poverty. On the one hand, in the cities, whereas the approach in terms of ex post welfare evokes the existence of an « anti-poor » growth, the recession of the urban households’ expenditure during the period was only anti-poor durable, the dynamics of the transient forms of poverty highlighting a process of growth slightly pro-poor. However, if the dynamics of durable and involutive transient poverty represents a process of pro-poor growth, with regard to the evolutive transient poverty, a process of anti-poor growth seems to prevail. The poverty growth curves illustrate these evolutions. Thus, the distinction of the forms of poverty, based on an ex ante dissociation of the welfare and vulnerability, contributes to better characterizing the process of growth. For example, for the whole of the economy, the increase observed of the poverty headcount between 1994-95 and 2003 is explained by the progression of evolutive transient poverty, i.e. the reduction of the welfare of the individuals having at least 60 percent of chance not to be poor in the short-term. However, it is precisely for these groups that the process of growth was very slightly pro-poor. Nevertheless, the data available only allow to eliminate partially the anonymity axiom, since it is impossible to apprehend ascending or downward mobility, as well as the variation of the individuals’ income. (Full text in french) |
| JEL: | I12 I32 |
| Date: | 2006–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mon:ceddtr:126&r=afr |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Lachaud (CED, IFReDE/GRES, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV) |
| Abstract: | Fondée sur les données des enquêtes démographique et de santé, et des conditions de vie des ménages, effectuées en 2003, la présente étude, examinant les facteurs de la prévalence du VIH au Burkina Faso, conduit à deux conclusions. Premièrement, la lutte contre la pauvreté n’est pas nécessairement un moyen de réduire en même temps de manière drastique la prévalence du VIH/SIDA, une assertion basée sur plusieurs éléments d’analyse empirique. Tout d’abord, la courbe de concentration, appréhendant l’inégalité « socio-économique » de la seroprévalence, est « pro-pauvres ». Ensuite, les estimations micro-économétriques des modèles probit suggèrent une relation positive entre la prévalence du VIH des femmes et des hommes adultes, et le niveau de vie des individus. En même temps, les modèles probit mettent en évidence une probabilité de prévalence du VIH croissante avec : (i) l’âge, et ; (ii) la localisation à Ouagadougou, la capitale, et dans la quasi-totalité des régions de l’ouest et du sud-ouest du pays, par rapport aux autres zones. Par contre, l’utilisation des condoms lors des rapports sexuels réduit les chances de séroprévalence, un effet croissant avec la richesse des ménages. Enfin, l’approche macro-économétrique révèle l’existence d’une relation positive (négative) entre, d’une part, le niveau de la prévalence régionale du VIH, et, d’autre part, le niveau de vie monétaire moyen provincial (la pauvreté) des ménages. En même temps, la relation entre la prévalence du VIH et la pauvreté, appréhendée au niveau régional, n’est pas linéaire. En outre, l’estimation des modèles d’économétrie spatiale montre un impact de la crise ivoirienne sur la prévalence du VIH en Burkina Faso, consécutivement au retour massif des migrants burkinabè de Côte d’Ivoire – notamment, à partir de 2000 –, pays où la séroprévalence est, en moyenne, cinq fois plus élevée qu’au Burkina Faso. Deuxièmement, et corrélativement, la relation entre la prévalence du VIH et la pauvreté est questionnée. Tout d’abord, des facteurs structurels pourraient contribuer à biaiser la relation entre les ressources des ménages et la prévalence du VIH/SIDA. D’une part, la persistance de facteurs cognitifs et comportementaux inhérents à la société traditionnelle, malgré le rythme élevé de croissance économique par tête qui a prévalu au cours des deux dernières décennies. En particulier, la construction sociale des attributs et des rôles féminins confère aux hommes un statut de « decision-makers » en ce qui concerne les relations sexuelles, tandis que la persistance des croyances séculaires contribue à minimiser la perception du VIH/SIDA en termes de risques, indépendamment du niveau de vie. D’autre part, les deux sous-ensembles géographiques où la prévalence du VIH est plus élevée que la moyenne nationale, tendent à exhiber des moyennes régionales des dépenses par tête plus élevées, comparativement aux autres zones. Par ailleurs, l’enclavement du Burkina Faso a exigé un développement du trafic routier et ferroviaire avec les pays limitrophes, notamment la Côte d’Ivoire. De ce fait, il se peut que les conditions structurelles du processus de développement burkinabè, concomitantes avec d’importants flux d’échange de biens, de services et de main-d’oeuvre avec un pays où la prévalence du VIH est particulièrement élevée, constituent un élément d’explication de la relation positive entre les ressources des ménages et la séroprévalence. Ensuite, des facteurs conjoncturels ont probablement contribué à renforcer la relation inverse entre la prévalence du VIH et la pauvreté, l’analyse macro-économétrique mettant en évidence une relation directe entre le retour massif des migrants de Côte d’ivoire et le niveau de prévalence du VIH au Burkina Faso. Based on the data of the Demographic and Health Survey, and of the Household Priority Survey, carried out in 2003, the present study, examining the factors of the HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, provides two conclusions. Firstly, the fight against poverty is not necessarily a means of reducing at the same time in a drastic way the HIV/AIDS prevalence, an assertion based on several elements of empirical analysis. First of all, the concentration curve, measuring the « socioeconomic » inequality of the seroprevalence, is « pro-poor ». Then, the micro-econometric estimates of the probit models suggest a positive relation between the HIV prevalence of the adult women and men, and the standard of living of the individuals. At the same time, the probit models highlight a probability of HIV prevalence increasing with : (i) the age, and ; (ii) the localization in Ouagadougou, the capital, and in the majority of the areas of the west and south-west of the country, compared to the other zones. On the other hand, the sexual relations with condoms reduce the chances of seroprevalence, an effect growing with the wealth of the households. Lastly, the macro-econometric approach reveals the existence of a positive (negative) relation between, on the one hand, the level of the regional HIV prevalence, and, on the other hand, the average monetary provincial standard of living (the poverty) of the households. At the same time, the relation between the HIV prevalence and the poverty, apprehended at the regional level, is not linear. Moreover, the estimate of the spatial econometrics models indicates an impact of the crisis of Côte d’Ivoire on the HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, consecutively with the massive return of a large number of refugees, displaced or repatriated persons originating from Côte d’Ivoire – in particular, since 2000 –, country where the seroprevalence is, on average, five times higher than in Burkina Faso. Secondly, and correlatively, the relation between the HIV prevalence and poverty is questioned. First of all, some structural factors could contribute to skew the relation between the resources of the households and the prevalence of the HIV/AIDS. On the one hand, the persistence of cognitive and behavioral factors inherent to the traditional society, in spite of the high rate of economic growth per capita which prevailed during two last decades. In particular, the social construction of the female attributes and roles confers to men a statute of « decision-makers » with regard to the sexual intercourse, while the persistence of the secular beliefs contributes to minimize the perception of the HIV/SIDA in terms of risks, independently of the standard of living. In addition, the two geographical subsets where the HIV prevalence is higher than the national average, tend to have higher regional averages per capita expenditure, compared to the other zones. In addition, the enclavement of Burkina Faso required a development of the road and railway traffic with the countries bordering, in particular Côte d’Ivoire. So, it may be that the structural conditions of the process of development of Burkina Faso, concomitant with significant flows of exchange of goods, services and labour with a country where the prevalence of the HIV is particularly high, constitute an element of explanation of the positive relation between the resources of the households and the HIV seroprevalence. Then, factors related to the conjuncture probably contributed to reinforce the opposite relation between the HIV seroprevalence and poverty, the macro-econometric analysis highlighting a direct relation between the massive return of the migrants of Côte d'Ivoire and the level of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso. (Full text in french) |
| JEL: | I12 I32 |
| Date: | 2005–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mon:ceddtr:112&r=afr |
| By: | Nkonya, Ephraim M.; Pender, John; Kaizzi, Crammer; Edward, Kato; Mugarura, Samuel |
| Abstract: | "This study was conducted with the main objective of determining the linkages between poverty and land management practices in Uganda. The study used the 2002/03 Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) and more focused data collected from a sub-sample of 851 households of the 2002/03 UNHS sample households. We found that farmers in Uganda deplete about 1.2 percent of the nutrient stock stored in the topsoil per year, which leads to a predicted 0.31 percent reduction in crop productivity. The value of replacing the depleted nutrients using the cheapest inorganic fertilizers is equivalent to about 20 percent of household income obtained from agricultural production. Econometric analysis of the survey results provides evidence of linkages between poverty and land management practices. Land investments increase agricultural productivity and income and conserve natural resources. Many inputs and land management practices increase crop production per acre. We observed an inverse farm size – crop productivity relationship but a negative association of farm size and per capita income. Education of female household members has generally a limited impact on land management, while male education is associated with greater use of inorganic fertilizer. Both female post-secondary and male primary and secondary education are associated with higher crop productivity. Larger families use more erosive practices but realize higher value of crop production per acre but have lower per capita income. Access to financial capital, markets and roads has limited effect on land management. However, access to financial capital and non-farm opportunities increase crop productivity and per capita household income and access to roads contributes to higher per capita household income and less soil nutrient depletion. These results support the Uganda government poverty reduction strategy through building rural roads, and increasing access to financial capital and non-farm opportunities. Both the traditional and the new agricultural extension program increase use of fertilizer and crop productivity, suggesting that investment in extension services could significantly contribute to agricultural modernization and poverty reduction. The results suggest the need to give incentives for technical assistance programs to operate in remote areas, where access to extension services is limited. Perennial crop producers deplete soil nutrients more rapidly, implying the need to promote measures to restore soil nutrients in perennial (especially banana) production areas. We find no significant differences in crop productivity or income per capita associated with differences in land tenure systems. Our findings suggest that customary land tenure, which is the most common form of tenure, is not a constraint to improvements in land productivity or use of sustainable land management. Overall, our results provide general support for the hypothesis that promotion of poverty reduction and agricultural modernization through technical assistance programs and investments in infrastructure and education can improve agricultural productivity and help reduce poverty. However, they also show that some of these investments do not necessarily reduce land degradation, and may contribute to worsening land degradation in the near term. Thus, investing in poverty reduction and agricultural modernization is not sufficient to address the problem of land degradation in Uganda, and must be complemented by greater efforts to address this problem." Authors' Abstract |
| Date: | 2005 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:eptddp:134&r=afr |
| By: | Stephan Klasen (University of Goettingen) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the link between population and per capita economic growth in Uganda. After showing that Uganda has one of the highest population growth rates in the world which, due to the inherent demographic momentum, will persist for some time to come, it then considers the impact of population growth on per capita economic growth. It finds that both theoretical considerations as well as strong empirical evidence suggest that the currently high population growth puts a considerable break on per capita growth prospects in Uganda. Moreover, it contributes significantly to low achievements in education, health, and poverty reduction and will make improvements in these areas very difficult. It may also be an important factor in the increase of inequality. If Uganda began a period of sustained fertility decline, the estimates reviewed here would suggest that this could boost medium term per capita growth rates by between 0.5-0.6 percentage points per year; considering the favourable age structure dynamics such a fertility decline would generate, per capita growth could increase by between 1.5 and 3 percentage points. It could also significantly contribute to improvements in poverty, inequality, education, and health outcomes. The note emphasizes the importance of a concerted effort to promote female education (including progression, completion, and secondary education), female formal sector employment, investments in reproductive and child health as well as family planning services, and government political leadership to promote smaller families. |
| Keywords: | poverty, inequality, population growth, Mozambique |
| JEL: | J1 I32 O15 |
| Date: | 2005–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:got:vwldps:125&r=afr |
| By: | Ganguly, Sushma; Feder, Gershon; Anderson, Jock R. |
| Abstract: | The paper reviews the origins and evolution of the Training and Visit (T & V) extension system, which was promoted by the World Bank in 1975-98 in over 50 developing countries. The discussion seeks to clarify the context within which the approach was implemented, and to analyze the causes for its lack of sustainability and its ultimate abandonment. The paper identifies some of the challenges faced by the T & V approach as being typical of a large public extension system, where issues of scale, interaction with the agricultural research systems, inability to attribute benefits, weak accountability, and lack of political support tend to lead to incentive problems among staff and managers of extension, and limited budgetary resources. The different incentives and outlook of domestic stakeholders and external donor agencies are also reviewed. The main cause of the T & V system ' s disappearance is attributed to the incompatibility of its high recurrent costs with the limited budgets available domestically, leading to fiscal unsustainability. The paper concludes with some lessons that apply to donor-driven public extension initiatives, and more generally to rural development fads. The role of timely, independent, and rigorous evaluative studies is specifically highlighted. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Rural Poverty Reduction,ICT Policy and Strategies,Banks & Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2006–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3928&r=afr |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Lachaud (CED, IFReDE/GRES, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV) |
| Abstract: | L'étude propose de contribuer au débat qui prévaut quant à la dynamique de pauvreté au Burkina Faso entre 1998 et 2003, et présente une nouvelle évidence empirique de cette dernière en termes non monétaires. L'analyse produit deux conclusions. En premier lieu, la mise en évidence récente par la Banque mondiale d'une diminution de la pauvreté, fondée sur l'élaboration d'un indicateur partiel des dépenses des ménages - dont le niveau pour 1998 est quasiment influencé par le seul « retrait » d'un « facteur de correction saisonnier », introduit « confidentiellement » à cette date en vue d'une comparaison avec 1994 -, soulève plusieurs questionnements. Premièrement, le processus de diffusion de l'information s'avère insuffisant, voire incohérent. Deuxièmement, l'introduction du facteur de correction, uniquement en référence à l'évolution des comptes nationaux, est à contre-courant de ce qu'enseigne la littérature. D'ailleurs, la présente étude produit des estimations de la pauvreté, fondées sur la comptabilité macro-économique, précisément cohérentes avec celles qui omettent le facteur de correction de 12,5 pour cent en 1998. En outre, l'augmentation possible de la consommation en période post-récolte en 1994, comparativement à la période de soudure de 1998, a pu être compensée par l'effet d’une période de référence plus longue en 1994 qu'en 1998 ou 2003 - 30 jours contre 15 jours -, en ce qui concerne la mesure de la consommation alimentaire. Dans ces conditions, la stabilité de la pauvreté entre 1994 et 2003 est fortement probable. Troisièmement, il est hasardeux d'inférer une dynamique du niveau de vie monétaire des ménages fondée sur l'évolution d'indicateurs non monétaires partiels : on peut identifier autant d'indicateurs partiels des capabilités ayant eu une évolution favorable - alphabétisation, scolarisation - que défavorable - malnutrition et mortalité des enfants. Quatrièmement, l'absence de dissociation ex ante des types de pauvreté par rapport à la vulnérabilité, c'est-à-dire de distinction entre la pauvreté chronique et transitoire, appauvrit l'analyse. En deuxième lieu, ces questionnements conduisent à tester la dynamique des privations par rapport à la disponibilité d'un ensemble d'actifs : possession d'actifs physiques au niveau des familles, ampleur du capital humain en termes d'éducation, et ressources sociales appréhendées par les envois de fonds nationaux et étrangers. La principale conclusion qui émane de l'étude est une relative stabilité - voire, une légère augmentation - de la pauvreté au cours de la période 1998-2003. D'une part, une analyse en composantes principales non linéaire suggère, au niveau national, une stabilisation de la pauvreté non monétaire, quels que soient les seuils de référence - 25e et 40e percentiles - et les mesures cardinales utilisées - incidence, intensité et inégalité. La robustesse de ce résultat est vérifiée à la fois par la statistique et les mesures ordinales de la pauvreté non monétaire. D'autre part, la prise en compte d'un indicateur micro-multidimensionnel et la considération de la statistique, montrent que l'incidence de la pauvreté non monétaire nationale a faiblement augmenté entre 1998 et 2003, alors que la profondeur et l'inégalité des privations sont demeurées stables. Dans ce contexte, le rôle des transferts dans l'explication de la pauvreté non monétaire est prédominant. En définitive, les approches non monétaires de la pauvreté ne confirment pas le déclin de cette dernière en termes monétaire entre 1998 et 2003, suggéré par la récente étude de la Banque mondiale. Elles sont plutôt cohérentes avec les estimations qui ont été faites à l'aide des données originelles de l'INSD de 1998. Bien que les approches non monétaires de la pauvreté se réfèrent davantage à des indices de moyen ou de long terme du bien-être des ménages, l'incertitude quant à la dynamique de pauvreté au Burkina Faso demeure. The study proposes to contribute to the debate which prevails as for the dynamics of poverty in Burkina Faso between 1998 and 2003, and presents a new empirical evidence of the latter in non-monetary terms. The analysis produces two conclusions. First of all, the recent description by the World Bank of a reduction in poverty, based on a partial indicator of the household expenses - whose level for 1998 is almost influenced by the only « withdrawal» of a « seasonal factor of correction », introduced « confidentially » on this date for a comparison with 1994 -, raises several questions. Firstly, the process of diffusion of information proves to be insufficient, even incoherent. Secondly, the introduction of the factor of correction, only in reference to the evolution of the national accounts, is against the conclusions of the literature. Furthermore, the present study produces estimates of poverty, based on macro-economic accountancy, precisely coherent with those which omit the factor of correction of 12.5 percent in 1998. Moreover, the possible increase in consumption in post-harvest period in 1994, compared to the pre-harvest period of 1998, could be compensated by the effect of the longer reference period in 1994 than in 1998 or 2003 - 30 days against 15 days -, with regard to the measurement of food consumption. Under these conditions, the stability of poverty between 1994 and 2003 is strongly probable. Thirdly, it is hazardous to characterize a dynamics of the households monetary welfare based on the evolution of partial non-monetary indicators: one can identify as many partial indicators of capabilities having had a favorable evolution - illiteracy, schooling - that unfavorable - malnutrition and child mortality. Fourthly, the absence of an ex ante dissociation of the types of poverty in relation to the vulnerability, i.e. the distinction between chronic and transitory poverty, impoverishes the analysis. In second place, these questions conduce to test the dynamics of the deprivations based on the availability of assets: possession of physical assets by the families, importance of human capital in terms of education, and social resources apprehended by the national and foreign remittances. The main conclusion which emanates from the study is a relative stability of poverty - even a weak increase - during the period 1998-2003. On the one hand, a nonlinear principal components analysis suggests, at the national level, a stability of the non-monetary poverty, whatever the thresholds of reference - 25e and 40e percentiles - and cardinal measurements used - incidence, intensity and inequality. The robustness of this result is checked at the same time by the statistics and ordinal measurements of non-monetary poverty. In addition, the use of a micro-multidimensional indicator and the consideration of the statistics, show that the incidence of the national non-monetary poverty slightly increased between 1998 and 2003, whereas the intensity and the inequality of the deprivations remained stable. In this context, the role of the remittances in the explanation of non-monetary poverty is prevalent. Finally, the non-monetary approaches of poverty do not confirm the decline of the latter in monetary terms between 1998 and 2003, suggested by the recent study of the World Bank. They are rather coherent with the estimates which were made using the original data of the INSD of 1998. Although the non-monetary approaches of poverty refer rather to middle or long term indices of welfare of the households, uncertainty as for the dynamics of poverty in Burkina Faso remains. (Full text in french) |
| JEL: | I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mon:ceddtr:103&r=afr |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Lachaud (CED / IFReDE-GRES, Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV) |
| Abstract: | La recherche propose de contribuer au débat sur la croissance pro-pauvres, et présente une nouvelle évidence empirique pour le Burkina Faso, fondée à la fois sur l’espace de l’utilité et celui des capacités. Dans un premier temps, l’analyse comparative de la croissance pro-pauvres montre que les dimensions monétaire et non monétaire produisent des résultats très similaires, indépendamment des mesures « globales » ou « partielles » mises en oeuvre. Ainsi, au cours de la période 1994-2003, malgré une légère progression des privations en termes d’utilité et des capacités, la croissance économique nationale a été pro-pauvres, dans la mesure où les pauvres ont été proportionnellement moins affectés que les non pauvres par la baisse des dépenses et des capacités – une conclusion à nuancer selon le milieu. Corrélativement, au niveau national et dans le secteur rural, l’hypothèse d’une croissance monétaire pro-pauvres en termes absolus n’est pas vérifiée – contrairement à ce qu’indiquent d’autres études –, alors qu’un consensus semble prévaloir quant au caractère anti-pauvres de la croissance monétaire dans les villes, en termes absolus et relatifs. Ces divergences s’expliquent par des options méthodologiques différentes. Dans ces conditions, l’approche de la croissance pro-pauvres, à la fois par les capacités et l’utilité, peut susciter des questionnements additionnels quant aux méthodologies utilisées lors de la quête de la dynamique du progrès social, et relativiser les conclusions de certaines études. Dans un second temps, cette approche duale de la croissance pro-pauvres permet de tester la robustesse de quelques relations postulées entre la pauvreté, la croissance économique et l’inégalité. A cet égard, l’analyse comparative, mobilisant l’économétrie spatiale, vérifie deux faits stylisés. D’une part, l’élasticité provinciale de la pauvreté monétaire ou des capacités, par rapport à l’indicateur de bien-être approprié, est d’autant plus faible que l’indice de Gini initial (monétaire ou non monétaire) est élevé. De plus, la relative faiblesse des élasticités de pauvreté monétaire et non monétaire, dans les provinces relativement sensibles aux conditions climatiques ou les plus urbanisées, est susceptible de réduire les risques de l’environnement macro-économique instable. D’autre part, alors que l’évolution de l’indicateur de bien-être est un déterminant décisif de la variation de la pauvreté au cours de la période, les changements de la distribution des dépenses et des capacités constituent également un facteur important. Par ailleurs, l’analyse comparative montre que l’effet de la croissance sur la réduction de la pauvreté, monétaire ou non monétaire, est plus fort lorsque le niveau initial de développement est élevé. En définitive, l’approche de la croissance pro-pauvres en termes des capacités peut concourir non seulement à vérifier la robustesse de la dynamique stipulée du processus de croissance économique monétaire, mais également à appréhender ce dernier en l’absence d’informations fiables sur les conditions de vie monétaires des ménages. The research proposes to contribute to the debate on pro-poor growth, and presents a new empirical evidence for Burkina Faso, based at the same time on the spaces of utility and capabilities. Firstly, the comparative analysis of pro-poor growth shows that the monetary and non-monetary dimensions produce very similar results, independently of the implementations of « partial » or « full approach » measures. Thus, over the period 1994-2003, in spite of a small increase of poverty in terms of utility and capabilities, the national economic growth was pro-poor, insofar as the poor were proportionally less affected than the non-poor by the fall of the expenditures and capabilities – a conclusion to be moderated according to areas. Correlatively, at the national level and in the rural sector, the assumption of a monetary pro-poor growth in absolute terms is not checked – contrary to what certain studies have indicated –-, whereas a consensus seems to prevail as for the anti-poor monetary growth in the cities, in absolute and relative terms. These divergences are explained by different methodological options. In this context, the approach of pro-poor growth, at the same time by the capabilities and utility, can cause additional °questioning° as for the methodologies implemented at the time of the quest of the dynamics of social progress, and relativize the conclusions of some studies. Secondly, this dual approach of pro-poor growth makes it possible to test the robustness of certain postulated relations between poverty, economic growth and inequality. In this respect, the comparative analysis, mobilizing spatial econometrics, confirms two stylized facts. On the one hand, the provincial growth-elasticity of monetary or capabilities poverty is much lower when the initial index |Gini| (monetary or non-monetary) is high. Moreover, the relative lowness of growth-elasticities of monetary and non-monetary poverty, in the provinces relatively sensitive to climatic conditions or the most urbanized, is likely to reduce the risks of the unstable macroeconomic environment. In addition, whereas the evolution of the welfare indicator is an important determinant of the variation of poverty during the period, the changes of the expenditures and capacities’ distribution also constitute a significant factor. Moreover, the comparative analysis shows that the effect of the growth on monetary or non-monetary poverty reduction, is stronger when the initial level of development is high. Ultimately, the approach of pro-poor growth in terms of capabilities can contribute not only to check the robustness of the stipulated dynamics of the process of monetary economic growth, but also to have a good proxy of this last in the absence of reliable information on the monetary living standard of households. (Full text in french) |
| JEL: | I12 I32 |
| Date: | 2006–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mon:ceddtr:122&r=afr |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Lachaud (CED, IFReDE/GRES, Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV) |
| Abstract: | Fondée sur l(enquête intégrale auprès des ménages de 2004, la modélisation des déterminants de la pauvreté durable et transitoire aux Comores conduit à deux principales conclusions. En premier lieu, la relation entre les privations monétaires et le capital social est complexe. Le fait pour les ménages de recevoir des envois de fonds de l(étranger contribue à réduire à la fois la pauvreté durable et transitoire à Ngazidja, alors qu(aucun effet n(est observé à Ndzouani et Mwali. Inversement, l(existence de transferts internes est positivement corrélée avec la probabilité de pauvreté durable et transitoire uniquement dans ces deux dernières îles. Par ailleurs, la validité de l(hypothèse du capital social à l(origine d(externalités rehaussant l(efficience de l(échange social semble vérifiée, indépendamment de la localisation insulaire, bien que la réduction de la pauvreté durable, consécutivement à une plus grande participation à une association, ne soit réellement sensible qu(à Ngazidja. Enfin, l(accroissement des transferts nets en termes des dépenses par tête rehausse partout la probabilité d(appartenir aux groupes pauvres, plutôt que riches. En deuxième lieu, la pauvreté dépend également de la mobilisation et du rendement de multiples actifs physiques, matériels et humains, régis à la fois par les marchés, et diverses institutions, normes et valeurs. Premièrement, le fonctionnement du marché du travail affecte différemment le niveau de vie des familles selon les îles. Par exemple, à Ngazidja, les ménages dont le chef est éleveur ont près de 60 pour cent de chance d(être pauvres durables ou transitoires, alors qu(à Ndzouani et Mwali, ce niveau de vulnérabilité concerne les familles ayant à leur tête un micro-entrepreneur et ou un pêcheur. Par ailleurs, si le rehaussement du taux d(emploi par ménage réduit le risque de pauvreté durable dans les trois îles, la probabilité de pauvreté transitoire est beaucoup moins sensible à la variation de ce ratio, surtout à Ndzouani et Mwali où prédomine une plus grande proportion d(agriculteurs. Deuxièmement, le capital humain est un facteur de réduction des privations, mais l(impact varie selon les formes de pauvreté. Troisièmement, le rôle des facteurs démographiques apparaît nettement. La probabilité de pauvreté est inversement reliée à la taille du ménage, et la sensibilité est plus accentuée à Ndzouani et Mwali qu(à Ngazidja, notamment en ce qui concerne la pauvreté transitoire. De plus, dans toutes les îles, les ménages gérés par une femme ont une plus faible probabilité de pauvreté durable que ceux dirigés par un homme, mais l(avantage des ménages féminins en termes de pauvreté transitoire ne s(observe qu(à Ndzouani et Mwali. Enfin, l(âge du chef de ménage est directement relié avec la probabilité prédite de pauvreté transitoire, alors que l(inverse prévaut en ce qui concerne la pauvreté durable. Quatrièmement, la considération de la dimension spatiale montre que les ménages ont d(autant plus de chance d(être pauvres durables qu(ils sont localisés dans le milieu rural de Ngazidja et de Ndzouani, et, surtout, dans les villes ou les campagnes de Mwali. De même, les familles vivant dans les zones rurales de Ndzouani ont la plus forte probabilité de pauvreté transitoire. Based on the integrated households survey of 2004, the modeling of the determinants of durable and transient poverty in the Comoros leads to two principal conclusions. First of all, the relation between the monetary deprivations and the social capital is complex. The fact for the households of receiving remittances contributes to reduce at the same time durable and transient poverty to Ngazidja, whereas no effect is observed in Ndzouani and Mwali. Conversely, the existence of internal transfers is correlated positively with the probability of the durable and transient poverty only in these two last islands. In addition, the validity of the assumption that the social capital is at the origin of externalities increasing the efficiency of the social exchange seems checked, independently of the insular localization, although the reduction of durable poverty, consecutively with a greater participation in an association, is really observable only in Ngazidja. Lastly, the increase of net transfers in terms of the expenditure per capita raises everywhere the probability of belonging to the poor groups, rather than rich. In second place, poverty also depends on the availability and the return of multiple physical, material and human assets, governed at the same time by the markets, and various institutions, standards and values. Firstly, the operation of the labour market affects differently the welfare of the families according to islands. For example, in Ngazidja, the households whose head is stock-breeder have nearly 60 percent of chance to be durable or transient poor, whereas in Ndzouani and Mwali, this level of vulnerability concerns the families having at their head an informal worker or a fisherman. In addition, if the increase of the rate of employment by household reduces the risk of durable poverty in the three islands, the probability of transient poverty is much less sensitive to the variation of this ratio, especially in Ndzouani and Mwali where prevail a greater proportion of farmers. Secondly, the human capital is a factor of reduction of poverty, but the impact varies according to forms of deprivation. Thirdly, the role of the demographic factors appears clearly. The probability of poverty is conversely related to the size of the household, and the sensitivity is more accentuated in Ndzouani and Mwali than in Ngazidja, in particular with regard to transient poverty. Moreover, in all the islands, the households managed by a woman have a weaker probability of durable poverty than those directed by a man, but the advantage of the female households in terms of transient poverty is observed only in Ndzouani and Mwali. Lastly, the age of the household head is directly connected with the predicted probability of transient poverty, whereas the reverse prevails with regard to durable poverty. Fourthly, the consideration of spatial dimension shows that the households have more chance to be durable poor if they are localized in the rural areas of Ngazidja and Ndzouani, and, especially, in the cities or the fields of Mwali. In the same way, the families living in the rural areas of Ndzouani have the strongest probability of transient poverty. (Full text in french) |
| JEL: | I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2005–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mon:ceddtr:108&r=afr |
| By: | Mwangi S. Kimenyi (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the link between economic rights and institutions. Simple analysis of data is used to demonstrate countries' human development effort in advancing economics rights of the citizens. A country's human development effort is evaluated on the basis of the well-being of the poorest members of the society. An analysis of data reveals that there is a wide variation in countries' pro-poor stance. While it is accepted that positive rights are pro-poor, this paper argues that so too are negative economic rights and in fact the two are complements rather than substitutes. Classifying countries into human development income deficit and human development effort deficit, it is demonstrated that a large number of countries could achieve higher welfare levels for the poor if they improved on bother positive and negative economic rights. The paper attempts to explain variations in the observed commitment to economic rights by focusing on pro-poor institutions. The basic thesis advanced in the paper is that pro-poor policies are more likely to be implemented and sustained in those institutions where power is sufficiently diffused such that even the poor have leverage over policy outcomes. The paper focuses on how institutions impact on power diffusion and therefore the adoption of pro-poor growth and policies. The failure of countries to adopt pro-poor growth and policies is attributed to institutional failures manifested in concentration of power. The policy recommendations emanating from the analysis focus on institutional reforms to enhance power diffusion. These policies include enlarging the political space through democratization, strengthening institutions and capacity to fight corruption and improve transparency, and bringing the government closer to the people through appropriate design and implementation of decentralization schemes. Some recent examples of improvements in economic rights following power diffusion are provided. |
| JEL: | O15 I30 I31 |
| Date: | 2005–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2005-40&r=afr |
| By: | Thomas Munthali (Leeds University Business School) |
| Abstract: | Malawi has been implementing structural adjustment reforms since 1981 in search of a way to revive its declining economic growth triggered by the oil shocks and general world economic recession of the mid and late 1970’s. These structural reforms were meant to liberalise the economy, broaden and diversify the production base towards non-primary products and allocate resources more productively. Since the theory of Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) has industrial growth, manufacturing in particular, at the centre of its argument for reviving economic growth, this paper primarily aims at establishing whether or not the claim that structural adjustments lead to manufacturing growth has been applicable to Malawi. By comparing the before (1960-1980) and after SAP (1981-1998) manufacturing industry’s growth levels, this study has found out that SAPs have assisted in improving manufacturing growth in Malawi though dismally. This dismal performance is evidenced by manufacturing growth volatilities and low average annual growth rates of 2.8% during the SAP implementation period compared to an average of 1.9% per annum before SAPs. However, despite this dismal growth of the manufacturing sector, there has been a production shift in the economy though not much from agriculture to industry as was the thrust of the structural adjustment. The manufacturing sector’s share of GDP has been rising over the SAP implementation period while that of agriculture especially the agricultural tradable sector has been declining giving hope for a structural move towards industry. This is evidenced by increased share of manufacturing in GDP from 16% before SAPs to 23% in the SAP period while decreasing the share of agriculture from 46% to 41% during similar periods. Despite this economy shift towards the industrial sector, however, GDP growth has been both volatile and declining averaging only 2.5% per annum during the entire SAP implementation period unlike the vibrant 6% per annum before SAPs. This only shows how much little effect the SAPs have had in reversing the declining economic growth trend of the Malawi economy with much of the growth still largely dependent on the agricultural sector. Malawi has continued to produce more and more volumes of agricultural produce for exports and yet due to declining terms of trade, the export values have been very small to assist in bringing the economy back on track. The study further reveals that despite the SAPs having assisted in improving manufacturing growth in Malawi, the sector’s growth has been characterised with incessant volatilities especially in the later part of the 1990’s when Malawi’s traditional donors were withholding economic reform funds due to the government’s failure to meet key economic stabilisation targets of low inflation, low interest rates and prudential spending. Malawi, being an agrarian economy dependent on external factors like climatic changes and international terms of trade, already faces volatilities in the availability of foreign exchange at various times of the year. This has in turn led to volatilities in the exchange rates, inflation levels, interest rates and GDP growth rates making sustainable manufacturing industry growth difficult. The study then, amongst others, recommends that Malawi needs to continue to fully implement economic reforms that are aimed at macroeconomic stability and promotion of industrial sector such as the formulation of an industrial policy separate from the Trade policy which can help to shape the course and pace of industrialisation in Malawi. Further, in order to draw meaningful government interventions and sound implementation of SAPs, it is important to conduct a micro-level study on manufacturing firms so as to find out how SAPs have so far impacted on manufacturing firm’s technical efficiency, capacity utilisation, allocative efficiency, market attaining distributive efficiency, and labour efficiency. Such a study would help in identifying if SAPs have been on the right track in helping to achieve their other main purpose of economic efficiency in the manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Manufacuring, growth, SAPs, economic reforms, malawi |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2004–10–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0410002&r=afr |
| By: | Wahba, Jackline |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the influence of adult market wages and having parents who were child labourers on child labour, when this decision is jointly determined with child schooling, using data from Egypt. The empirical results suggest that low adult market wages are key determinants of child labour; a 10 percent increase in the illiterate male market wage decreases the probability of child labour by 22 percent for boys and 13 percent for girls. The findings also indicate the importance of social norms in the inter-generational persistence of child labour: parents who were child labourers themselves are on average 10 percent more likely to send their children to work. In addition, higher local regional income inequality increases the likelihood of child labour. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stn:sotoec:0603&r=afr |
| By: | kisu simwaka (Reserve Bank of Malawi) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is therefore twofold. First, to establish the claim that currency in circulation has been rising. Second, to empirically quantify and give a full account of the reasons determining the dynamics and volatility of currency in circulation. Using annual data for the 1965-2004 period, this paper confirms that currency in circulation as a proportion of money stock has increased. From the initial estimation results, the paper establishes strong positive effects of inflation rate, underground economy activities, financial deepening on the CU/M2 ratio, and significant negative effect of interest rates on this ratio. The other highlight result from this study is the positive and significant association between small-scale agriculture produce and CU/M2 ratio. Using annual data, among other things, this study confirms findings from other studies that cash preference is a function of real interest rates. However, one striking finding here is the importance small-scale agriculture as a determinant of currency in circulation. This reflects the agriculture-dependent nature of the economy. Better performance of this sector injects cash in the economy and because of the lack of banking facilities in rural areas, most of the injected cash remains in circulation. The message from empirical results using monthly data is similar, with interest rates, financial deepening, tobacco selling season dummy and inflation rate playing significant roles in determining movements in currency in circulation. As expected, technological innovations in the banking system or payment systems, particularly cash dispensers (ATMs) have a significant impact on the overall level of currency in circulation, whereas no major impact seems to come from the MALSWITCH smart card, however, initial indications reveal its negative effect on the CU/M2 ratio. Policy implications from these results are many. First, of late the Bank has reduced the bank rate and as is normally the case, all other interest rates were similarly adjusted. While the policy move has or is on course to achieve its intended goals, it has other side repercussions such as deposit taking capabilities by commercial banks. Currently, the minimum saving rate for the four major commercial banks averages around 7.5%. This against the current monthly inflation rate of 12.2 (for October 2004) leaves real savings rate of around –4.7% which rationally discourages savings mobilisation and consequent reduction in the availability of loanable funds for productive investment and economic growth. The public is most likely to hold their assets in cash rather than bank deposit form since the opportunity cost of doing so is essentially zero. However, due to high inflation in the past, savers in Malawi were used to high interest rates so that current demand deposits are considered as unattractive and non-worthwhile form of holding money. It is time the public get used to lower interest rates as in other countries and on the belief that causality direction is from interest rates to inflation, the reduction in the bank rate could eventually lead to a drop in inflation and, therefore, an increase in the real interest rate. Second, if the Bank intends to focus on reducing the CU/M2 ratio, intensification of smart card use and publicity could play an important role. The smart card is a direct alternative of cash as a means of payment so that its widespread use can directly reduce currency in circulation. This, as is the case in other countries could also reduce the positive impact of ATM transactions on the overall level of currency in circulation. Third, the overall civic education on the use of banking facilities, in rural areas as well as to small-scale business men (vendors) is important for increased deposit taking and, therefore, the reduction in the amount of currency in circulation. |
| Keywords: | Currency in circulation, Seasonality, Money demand model |
| JEL: | E |
| Date: | 2005–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0504018&r=afr |
| By: | Dekhili, S.; D'Hauteville, F. |
| Abstract: | The literature in marketing indicates that the country (or region) of origin may be an attribute of a product. However practically its use as a competitive advantage is less than efficient, due to insufficient definition of the images associated to these regions. This paper explores some the dimensions of the image of a country (region), using olive oil as a case study on the basis of a recent model tested by Van Ittersum and al. (2003). In order to take in account cultural differences, we conducted interviews with experts in olive oil sector from two countries, Tunisia and France (Delphi method). 15 experts was selected, and 2 turns was realised in each country. Results show that consumption habits are depending on nationalities. Tunisian consumers are more familiar with the product, which may explain the consideration of many intrinsic attributes. Whatever the consumer nationality, geographic origin is an important choice cue and a quality judgement indicator. It is more interesting to consider the region level for the characterisation of the olive oil. The image is multidimensional. Our results suggest that we should include further dimensions to the Van Ittersum model, such as the variety of olives and the reputation of a producing country in terms of food safety. From a managerial point of view, these first results support the idea that a national policy promoting region of origin as a quality attribute might be relevant in both countries. ...French Abstract : Nous nous proposons de déterminer les dimensions de l'image Pays/Région d'origine dans le cas de l'huile d'olive, en nous basant sur un modèle récent testé par Van Ittersum et al. (2003). Pour tenir compte des différences liées à la culture, nous avons réalisé ce travail dans deux pays de traditions différentes : la France et la Tunisie. Dans chaque pays, nous avons mené des enquêtes avec des experts de la filière oléicole (méthode Delphi). 15 experts ont été sélectionnés et deux tours ont été effectués, dans chaque pays. Il ressort que les habitudes de consommation sont très différentes selon le pays. Mais quelle que soit la nationalité des consommateurs, l'origine géographique constitue un critère de choix important et un facteur de jugement de la qualité. Il apparaît que le niveau " Région " pourrait être plus pertinent que le niveau " Pays " pour la caractérisation de l'huile d'olive. Nous retrouvons les deux dimensions mises en évidence par Van Ittersum et al. (2003), les conditions naturelles (climat, sol) et le facteur humain (savoir-faire de transformation et de production, habitudes et traditions locales). Nous constatons que la variété et l'hygiène alimentaire, constitueraient deux nouvelles facettes déterminantes de l'image région d'origine, dans le cas de l'huile d'olive. D'un point de vue managerial, ces premiers résultats soutiennent l'idée qu'une politique nationale mettant en avant la région d'origine comme attribut de qualité peut être appropriée dans les deux pays. |
| Keywords: | OLIVE OIL; PERCEIVED QUALITY; COUNTRY OF ORIGIN; REGION OF ORIGIN; IMAGE |
| JEL: | L15 L66 M31 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umr:wpaper:200602&r=afr |