|
on Africa |
| By: | Brian Lucey; Thomas Lagoarde-Segot |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to investigate the MENA’s potential for portfolio diversification benefits by examining long run equity linkages with daily data over the 1998-2004 periods. Our analysis is based on several co-integration analyses and an extension of Akdogan measures of financial integration. We first compare financial integration with the EU and the US. Results suggest that the MENA region is growingly segmented from both regions. Although integration is relatively higher with the EMU, diversification benefits for both EU and US investors are possible since segmentation levels appear converging. At the country level, our analysis displays no evidence of regional integration, thereby suggesting potential for local diversification. Integration scores also show that Egypt and Turkey should be relatively more appealing for the US investor and Israel, and Jordan and Morocco for the EU investor. Lebanon and Tunisia are two specific cases displaying opposite dynamics. A moving average analysis also shows that financial events, internal reforms and political shocks do not affect the region stock market linkages homogeneously; real economic integration seems to diminish financial segmentation. Finally, we approach the issue of short run linkages with a VAR-VECM methodology. Impulse response analysis shows that all markets seem to respond to each other, but that Turkey is unaffected by shocks occurring in the other markets. This ultimately raises questions on the dynamics of intra-regional contagion. |
| Keywords: | Stock Market Integration, Portfolio Diversification, MENA markets, Time-varying methods. |
| Date: | 2005–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp071&r=afr |
| By: | Jean-Christophe Bureau; Sébastien Jean, Alan Matthews |
| Abstract: | Recent analyses suggest that the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on developing countries will be very uneven. Some simulations suggest that the effects of agricultural trade liberalization will be small, overall, and are likely to be negative for a significant number of developing countries. The Doha Round focuses on tariff issues, but these countries currently have practically duty-free access to European and North American markets under preferential regimes. Multilateral liberalization will erode the benefits of these preferences, which are presently rather well utilized in the agricultural sector. The main obstacles to the exports of sub-Saharan African and least developed countries appear to be in the non-tariff area (sanitary, phytosanitary standards) which increasingly originate from the private sector and are not dealt with under the Doha framework (traceability requirements, etc.). An agreement in Doha is unlikely to solve these problems and open large markets for the poorest countries. It might even increase their handicap relative to developing countries that are more advanced from a technical and commercial standpoint. While this is not an argument to give up multilateral liberalization, a more specific and differentiated treatment should be considered in WTO rules, and corrective measures should be implemented. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Trade, Liberalization, WTO |
| Date: | 2005–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp073&r=afr |
| By: | Howard White (OED, World Bank); Edoardo Masset (OED, World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates that the delivery of hardware inputs to Ghana’s basic education system – building classrooms and supplying textbooks – has had a substantial impact on higher enrollments and better learning outcomes. The Bank’s support for school building has been a major factor behind Ghana being on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goal of Universal Primary Education. The context for these improvements was a government strongly committed to implementing a program of educational reform that refocused government resources away from secondary and tertiary education and onto the basic sector. But the Bank’s support played a critical role in allowing the government to carry out its plans. Partly because of increased reliance on community contributions, a gap is opening up between the majority of schools and those in poorer communities, particularly in off-road rural areas. Facilities in schools in poorer areas are usually inferior and teacher absenteeism high, so that little learning can take place. Special attention needs to be paid to these least-privileged schools if Ghana is to remain on track to meet the education MDG. |
| Keywords: | Impact evaluation, education, Ghana, Africa |
| JEL: | O P |
| Date: | 2005–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wpa:wuwpdc:0504013&r=afr |
| By: | ESAU (Unassigned) |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh, Kenya, economic growth, corruption, low-income countries |
| Date: | 2005–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:bpaper:3&r=afr |
| By: | ESAU (Unassigned) |
| Keywords: | Fiscal, aid, aid effectiveness, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, budget, economic growth |
| Date: | 2005–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:bpaper:4&r=afr |
| By: | Sonja Fagernäs; John Roberts |
| Abstract: | Working Paper 10 forms part of a set of four ESAU papers on the fiscal effects of aid in African countries. The others are on Malawi (Working Paper 7), on Uganda (Working Paper 9) and a literature Survey and Synthesis (Working Paper 11). The first, historical and analytical background, part of the paper charts the course of Zambia’s economic decline and impoverishment from the high point reached in the early 1970s to the 1990s, when a tentative recovery began in the wake of radical but incomplete reforms. The fall in mining revenues caused a fall in real public expenditure only partly offset by substantial aid inflows, and public services declined. The second part, devoted to the analysis of time-series data from the early 1970s to the late 1990s, shows that the main effect of aid has been to augment the capital budget, though it has also temporarily raised recurrent expenditure. Large aid inflows have not produced satisfactory development results because they have been overwhelmed by adverse economic circumstances and uncertain economic and public expenditure management. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal, aid, aid effectiveness, Zambia, budget, economic growth |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:10&r=afr |
| By: | Sonja Fagernäs; John Roberts |
| Abstract: | Working Paper 11 gives a synthesis of Working Papers 7, 9 and 10 (see the relevant Summaries for further details). It also provides a brief synthesis of earlier literature on the fiscal effects of aid, which is related to the wider literature on the development impact of aid and on budget choice. The paper presents the econometric methodology used in the country studies of Malawi, Uganda and Zambia (vector autoregression) and its application, and discusses the problem of reconciling data on aid from donor and recipient sources. It makes some general observations from the three country studies relevant to aid effectiveness – the sui generis character of recipient countries’ policies and institutions that govern the impact of aid, the heterogeneity of calculated fiscal impacts, the persistent rigidities in countries’ uses of aid, and the absence of significant aid-financed expenditures from countries’ budgets. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal, aid, aid effectiveness, Malawi, Uganda, Zambia, budget, economic growth |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:11&r=afr |
| By: | Jonathan Beynon |
| Abstract: | Recent World Bank research has sparked a major debate about aid effectiveness and its implications for aid allocations. The main focus of attention has been the importance of good policy as a determinant of aid effectiveness and criterion for aid allocations. This paper briefly recaps the main arguments and evidence generated by Burnside/Collier/Dollar and their critics. It then focuses on the Collier/Dollar aid allocation models, subjecting them to a wider range of sensitivity tests to assess the robustness of their results. Finally, it analyses the relative efficiency of aid allocations over time and between donors. |
| Keywords: | Collier, Dollar, aid allocation, aid effectiveness, donors |
| Date: | 2003–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:2&r=afr |
| By: | Sonja Fagernäs |
| Abstract: | ESAU Working Paper 4 applies a standard (IFPRI) macroeconomic CGE model to Zimbabwe to ascertain the likely income distribution impacts of alternative policy instruments for stabilising the economy, specifically for eliminating the current account deficit, viz. devaluation or fiscal adjustment. The author finds, however, that the model is unable for structural reasons to simulate the impact of expenditure reduction on the current account; its closure procedure offsets decreases in public consumption with increases in private consumption. This leaves devaluation as the only analysable policy instrument for balance of payments adjustment. Devaluation is likely to be contractionary for GDP, and in all sectors except agriculture and export-oriented production. Profits and labour incomes in commercial farming rise, but in other sectors fall. |
| Keywords: | CGE model, stabilisation policy, Zimbabwe, PSIA, expenditure switching, expenditure reduction |
| Date: | 2004–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:4&r=afr |
| By: | John Roberts; Sonja Fagernäs |
| Abstract: | ESAU Working Paper 5 examines the contrasting growth experiences of Kenya and Bangladesh since the 1960s. The paper finds that, before 1980, Kenya grew strongly, and the economy diversified. Factors behind its subsequent deterioration in the 1990s were the government’s erratic, inflation-prone macroeconomic management, the overexpansion of the public sector, domestic and external indebtedness, its uncertain conduct of structural reforms, worsening cronyism and corruption, a high-cost, non-competitive, environment for the private sector and disappointing export performance. Bangladesh’s recent relative success was built on policies of macroeconomic stability, low public expenditure and taxation, the avoidance of non-concessional debt and a competitive real exchange rate. Savings and investment, once very low, rose steadily after 1990. Agriculture revived with investment in Green Revolution technology. An indigenous private sector emerged, operating in competitive conditions, out of which emerged a very successful export-oriented garment manufacturing sector. |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh, Kenya, economic growth, corruption, low-income countries |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:5&r=afr |
| By: | Sonja Fagernäs; Cedrik Schurich |
| Abstract: | Working Paper 7 is the first of three ESAU monographs on the fiscal effects of aid - the two others covering Uganda (Working Paper 9) and Zambia (Working Paper 10). Their methodology and general conclusions are summarised in a separate Survey and Synthesis paper (Working Paper 11). The purpose of this research was to find out how aid has been absorbed through recipients’ fiscal processes with a view to better understanding how aid is effective in promoting growth. Each country paper combines historical and institutional analysis with the econometric analysis of time series data. In Malawi, growth has been slow and fitful, and there has been a record of uneven macroeconomic management, poor fiscal control and debt problems, often leaving public services underfunded. The government has practised fiscal dichotomy – allocating aid to the development budget, while financing its recurrent budget from revenue and domestic borrowing. The econometric evidence confirms that aid has been used to finance the development budget. It also shows that aid has, if anything, been a stabilising influence, being associated with higher domestic revenues and lower borrowing. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal, aid, aid effectiveness, Malawi, absorption, economic growth |
| Date: | 2004–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:7&r=afr |
| By: | Anna McCord |
| Abstract: | ESAU Working Paper 8 presents evidence from sample surveys, conducted among beneficiary households in Limpopo and KwaZulu Natal provinces, of the effectiveness of public works programmes in solving the problems of unemployment and poverty in South Africa. The programmes are implemented under the auspices of provincial public works departments. The paper contrasts the Limpopo programme, which provides full-time temporary employment in the majority of cases for dependents who are half male and half female, with the KwaZulu Natal programme, which provides part-time but permanent employment for beneficiaries who are poorer, almost all women and, in majority, household heads. Though the wages paid make a significant contribution to beneficiary households’ cash incomes, the research finds that the multiplicity of objectives set for public works leads to inefficient targeting. The temporary public employment model does not increase the longer-term employability of selected beneficiaries, in a labour market characterised by an excess supply of unskilled and semi-skilled labour. Former beneficiaries return to unemployment, and their household incomes drop. The permanent,part-time, employment model implemented in KwaZulu Natal, in which beneficiaries are selected by their communities on grounds of poverty, is more effective as a means of supplementing the incomes of the poor. |
| Keywords: | Unemployment, poverty, public works programmes, South Africa, labour market |
| Date: | 2004–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:8&r=afr |
| By: | Sonja Fagernäs; John Roberts |
| Abstract: | Working Paper 9 forms part of a set of four ESAU papers on the fiscal effects of aid in African countries. The others are on Malawi (Working Paper 7), on Zambia (Working Paper 10) and a literature Survey and Synthesis (Working Paper 11). The first, historical and analytical background, part of the paper contrasts the pre-1986 period of misrule, instability, conflict, the exodus of entrepreneurs and professionals, dwindling aid and economic decline, with the subsequent period when growth resumed, poverty fell, economic stability was restored, aid was substantial, and the government implemented budget management and pro-poor expenditure reforms. The second, econometric, part shows that the main effect of aid between the 1970s and 1990s was to increase development budget expenditure, with lesser positive impacts on recurrent budget expenditure and domestic revenue. The effectiveness of aid has therefore turned on the (rising) quality of development budget expenditure and on the (growing) credibility of accompanying economic policies. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal, aid, aid effectiveness, Uganda, budget, economic growth |
| Date: | 2004–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:odi:wpaper:9&r=afr |