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on Sports and Economics |
| By: | Giovanni Angelini (Department of Economics, University of Bologna); Luca De Angelis (Department of Economics, University of Bologna); Carl Singleton (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | We propose a practical framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets, especially in how prices react to news. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There is mispricing in these markets and inefficiency, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias. This is systematically absorbed or amplified after a goal, depending on the match conditions. We find that prices respond correctly when news is expected but overreact when it is a surprise. |
| Keywords: | Market efficiency, Favourite-longshot bias, Mispricing, Sports forecasting, Probability forecasting, Behavioural bias, Betting strategy |
| JEL: | G14 D01 L83 C58 Z2 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2019-20&r=all |
| By: | John C. Whitehead; Pamela Wicker |
| Abstract: | The purposes of this study are to examine the effect of training satisfaction and weather on the intention to revisit a sport event and to assign a monetary value to these event attributes considering attribute non-attendance. It uses survey data from four sport events in the United States in 2017 and 2018. Respondents answered a series of hypothetical scenarios that randomly assign travel costs per mile and travel distances for the return visit along with weather forecasts and training satisfaction. Logit models estimated with and without attribute non-attendance reveal the extent of preference heterogeneity and respondent attention to trip attributes. The monetary value of training satisfaction and favorable weather is obtained by converting willingness-to-travel into willingness-to-pay estimates based on travel costs. The results indicate that attribute non-attendance is an issue in each data set and that willingness-to-pay for event attributes differs across event and time. Key Words: Intention to revisit; Monetary valuation; Sport event; Willingness-to-pay; Willingness-to-travel |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apl:wpaper:19-13&r=all |