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on Sports and Economics |
| By: | Wiper, Michael Peter; Tena, Juan de Dios; Forrest, David; Corona, Francisco |
| Abstract: | The paper discusses how to evaluate alternative seeding systems in sports competitions. Prior papers have developed an approach which uses a forecasting model at the level of the individual match and then applies Monte Carlo simulation of the whole tournament to estimate the probabilities associated with various outcomes or combinations of outcomes. This allows, for example, a measure of outcome uncertainty to be attached to each proposed seeding regime. However, this established approach takes no note of the uncertainty surrounding the parameter estimates in the underlying match forecasting model and this precludes testing for statistically significant differences between probabilities or outcome uncertainty measures under alternative regimes. We propose a Bayesian approach which resolves this weakness in standard methodology and illustrate its potential by examining the effect of seeding rule changes implemented in the UEFA Champions League, a major football tournament, in 2015. The reform appears to have increased outcome uncertainty. We identify which clubs and which sorts of clubs were favourably or unfavourably affected by the reform, distinguishing effects on probabilities of progression to different phases of the competition. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian; Monte Carlo simulation; football; seeding; OR in sports |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:wsrepe:24521&r=spo |
| By: | Sahm, Marco |
| Abstract: | I examine sequential round-robin tournaments with three and four symmetric players. Each player is matched once with each other player. If the matches are organized as Tullock contests (all-pay auctions), the tournament will be almost fair (highly discriminatory): subject to the position of their matches in the sequence of the tournament, the differences in players' ex-ante winning probabilities and expected payoffs will be small (large). The differing results originate from the higher discriminating power of the all-pay auction. Moreover, the resulting discouragement effect in tournaments with all-pay auctions implies lower aggregate effort than in tournaments with suitable Tullock contests. The fairness of round-robin tournaments may be improved by the use of an endogenous sequence of matches or the requirement that players fix their effort ex-ante. |
| Keywords: | Sequential Round-Robin Tournament,Contest Success Function,Discriminatory Power,Tullock Contest,All-Pay Auction |
| JEL: | C72 D72 Z20 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bamber:121&r=spo |
| By: | Budzinski, Oliver; Schneider, Sonja |
| Abstract: | Smart Fitness bezeichnet die digitale Erfassung individualisierter Fitness- und Lifestyledaten mit Hilfe von Wearables, Smartwatches, Apps und anderen Instrumenten. Die so generierten Daten sind für eine Reihe von Akteure wie Sportartikelhersteller, Pharmaunternehmen, Arbeitgeber sowie insbesondere auch Krankenversicherungen ökonomisch interessant. Wegen der hohen Aktualität sowohl des gesellschaftlichen Trends zur Selbstvermessung und -optimierung als auch der Verwendung personalisierter Daten im Zuge der Digitalisierung handelt es sich um ein dynamisch wachsendes und sich entwickelndes Gebiet, welches aber bisher kaum aus einer ökonomischen Perspektive untersucht wurde. In dem vorliegenden Beitrag wenden wir die ökonomische Theorie personalisierter Daten auf das Phänomen Smart Fitness an und leiten mögliche Effekte her, insbesondere auch für die Konsumentenwohlfahrt. Außerdem präsentieren wir eine nicht-repräsentative empirische Studie, welche einen ersten Einblick ermöglicht und dabei helfen kann, die empirisch relevanten Theorierichtungen zu identifizieren. Dabei stellen wir Bereiche heraus, in denen eher positive Wohlfahrtswirkungen zu erwarten sind, aber betonen auch solche, wo Wohlfahrtsgefahren lauern und daher Regulierungsrechtfertigungen bestehen. Letzteres gilt insbesondere, wenn personalisierte Fitness- und Lebensstildaten für die Individualisierung von Krankenversicherungstarifen oder Karriereentscheidungen durch Arbeitgeber verwendet werden. |
| Keywords: | smart fitness,wearables,smartwatches,Ökonomik personalisierter Daten,economics of privacy,big data,Digitalisierung,Selbstvermessung,Sportökonomik,Medienökonomik,Gesundheitsökonomik,Fitnessarmband |
| JEL: | L83 Z20 D03 I10 L82 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:105&r=spo |
| By: | Budzinski, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Eine Reihe von Autoren - vor allem im deutschsprachigen - Raum begründet die Notwendigkeit regulatorischer Eingriffe in Profisportmärkte damit, dass der Wettbewerb auf diesen Märkten systematisch versage. Als wesentliche Ursache für Wettbewerbsprobleme innerhalb dieser Ligen oder Meisterschaften gilt dem-nach das Auftreten eines ruinösen Wettbewerbs in Form von Rattenrennen à la Akerlof. Der vorliegende Beitrag untersucht die Frage, ob Rattenrennenmodelle eine geeignete Erklärung des ökonomischen Wettbewerbs in einer Sportliga darstellen und legt regulatorische Implikationen dar. |
| Keywords: | Rattenrennen,ruinöse Konkurrenz,Wettbewerb,Medienrechte,Sportökonomik,Zentralvermarktung |
| JEL: | Z20 Z23 L40 L10 L83 K21 L51 K31 L82 Z22 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuiedp:104&r=spo |
| By: | Simon Spika (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz); Friedrich Breyer (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Physical activity has been shown to be associated with reduced direct health care utilization and expenditure. For the health effect of physical activity, however, not only the total amount but also the intensity and frequency of physical activity is important. This paper uses data from the Konstanz Life-Study and a hurdle-model to estimate the impact of physical activity patterns on the number of physician visits. The results indicate that in the case of women, vigorous physical activity reduces the number of visits given a positive usage, whereas in the case of men, vigorous physical activity reduces the probability of a first visit. The results however, have to be interpreted with caution because of the limited accuracy of the self-declared physical activity by the participants of the Konstanz Life-Study, collected with the IPAQ-SF questionnaire. |
| Keywords: | Physical activity; health care utilization; Konstanz Life Study |
| Date: | 2017–01–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1702&r=spo |