| Abstract: |
We study how delays in NIH grant funding affect the career outcomes of
research personnel. Using comprehensive earnings and tax records linked to
university transaction data along with a difference-in-differences design, we
find that a funding interruption of more than 30 days has a substantial effect
on job placements for personnel who work in labs with a single NIH R01
research grant, including a 3 percentage point (40%) increase in the
probability of not working in the US. Incorporating information from the full
2020 Decennial Census and data on publications, we find that about half of
those induced into nonemployment appear to permanently leave the US and are
90% less likely to publish in a given year, with even larger impacts for
trainees (postdocs and graduate students). Among personnel who continue to
work in the US, we find that interrupted personnel earn 20% less than their
continuously-funded peers, with the largest declines concentrated among
trainees and other non-faculty personnel (such as staff and undergraduates).
Overall, funding delays account for about 5% of US nonemployment in our data,
indicating that they have a meaningful effect on the scientific labor force at
the national level. |