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on Investment |
| By: | Julian di Giovanni; Åžebnem Kalemli-Özcan; Alvaro Silva; Muhammed A Yildirim |
| Abstract: | We estimate a multi-country multi-sector New Keynesian model to quantify the drivers of domestic inflation during 2020–2023 in several countries, including the United States. The model matches observed inflation together with sector-level prices and wages. We further measure the relative importance of different types of shocks on inflation across countries over time. The key mechanism, the international transmission of demand, supply and energy shocks through global linkages helps us to match the behavior of the USD/Euro exchange rate. The quantification exercise yields four key findings. First, negative supply shocks to factors of production, labor and intermediate inputs, initially sparked inflation in 2020–2021. Global supply chains and complementarities in production played an amplification role in this initial phase. Second, positive aggregate demand shocks, due to stimulative policies, widened demand-supply imbalances, amplifying inflation further during 2021–2022. Third, the reallocation of consumption between goods and service sectors, a relative sector-level demand shock, played a role in transmitting these imbalances across countries through the global trade and production network. Fourth, global energy shocks have differential impacts on the US relative to other countries' inflation rates. Further, complementarities between energy and other inputs to production play a particularly important role in the quantitative impact of these shocks on inflation. |
| Keywords: | inflation; supply chains; trade economics; structural global network model; supply shocks |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rba:rbaacp:acp2023-01&r=inv |
| By: | Cho, Jaehan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Cho, Eun Kyo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kyung, Heewon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Choi, Mincheol (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Yong (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Hanhin (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The Biden-Harris Administration issued an Executive Order in August to limit the financing of and investment in advanced technologies in China. Semiconductors, quantum computers, and artificial intelligence (AI) were specifically targeted. Beijing is expected to respond to the White House’s Executive Order by introducing its own financial restrictions targeting American companies, such as delays in the authorization of merger-and-acquisition (M&A) deals, while also taking measures to accelerate the fragmentation of the world economy into blocs by its augmenting technological competitiveness and related ecosystems. The direct recent order and its ramifications on South Korea are likely to be limited because financial linkages between China and Korea in many key technologies are weak. Nevertheless, Korean policymakers need to devise strategies that enhance the competitiveness of Korean certain technologies and attract investments from international investors, while navigating an increase in uncertainties over technology financing and investment stemming from White House action. The Korean strategy ought to (1) prepare for greater uncertainties in the financial markets of certain technologies and for a broadening of scope of certain technologies in the future, and potential calls to cooperate in US-led efforts to contain China, (2) prepare for an escalation of the US-China technology hegemony rivalry across all fronts, now that the US's China policy measures encompass the financial markets, (3) increase support for and technological cooperation with foreign investors, with a view toward attracting friend-shoring investments in Korean technologies, and (4) reinforce financial and investment strategies and loosen regulations to attract cutting-edge technologies through strategic M&A with foreign companies. |
| Keywords: | US-China rivalry; protectionism; reshoring; friendshoring; economic security; economic nationalism; chips; semiconductors; batteries; electric vehicles; EVs; manufacturing; trade policy; trade protectionism; advanced technologies; Korea |
| JEL: | F02 F13 F21 F50 F51 F52 |
| Date: | 2023–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2023_003&r=inv |
| By: | Lim, Soyoung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | However, the global economy is in the midst of a polycrisis. Major issues in every sector worldwide have prompted a paradigm shift in industrial ODA. In calling for an adjustment to this new paradigm, this report outlines an updated industrial ODA strategy: Industrial ODA 2.0. The Korean Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) has announced plans to reform its industrial ODA programs to emphasize supply-chain, green, and technological ODA. These different areas of industrial ODA should be combined to enable developing countries to better deal with the global polycrisis, and also to strengthen the resilience of their industries and trade. The Korean government should expressly include supply-chain and trade ODA in its country partnership strategies (CPS). A system needs to be established in the long run to ensure effective performance management, monitoring, and evaluation in industrial ODA. The Korean government also needs to actively cooperate with the private sector to seize and develop new ODA opportunities, expand the Korean ODA ecosystem, and maximize the intended effects of its ODA activities. |
| Keywords: | Official Development Assistance; ODA; industrial ODA; sustainable development; industrial development; strategic ODA; Korea |
| JEL: | F53 F55 H77 H81 H87 O14 O25 |
| Date: | 2023–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietia:2023_002&r=inv |
| By: | Kyung, Heewon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kim, Sanghoon (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In 2022, the global semiconductor market was valued at USD 600 billion (approximately KRW 780 trillion). Memory chips represented 23.9 percent of that estimated market, while non-memory chips claimed the remaining 76.1 percent. In the global non-memory semiconductor market, South Korea is ranked sixth, after the United States, Europe, Taiwan, Japan, and China. Much of the revenue Korean non-memory semiconductor companies generate is concentrated in the consumer electronics sector, fueled by strong domestic demand for products such as smartphones and televisions produced by large corporations. The non-memory semiconductor market is incredibly varied and complex, as the demand sectors for these chips require them for a wide variety of functions and broad performance envelope. Industries that use these chips are also far more diverse than the industries that use memory chips. The subsegments of the non-memory chip market are dominated by established players, and these niches are protected from latecomers by extremely high barriers to entry. The geopolitical landscape is rapidly shifting, with the US-China rivalry intensifying at the same time that semiconductor technologies are becoming more and more sophisticated. It is in this global environment that the Korean government is primed to pour fiscal resources into an effort to foster the domestic non-memory semiconductors industry. But in order for this kind of investment to be effective, the government first needs to objectively assess Korean companies’ position in the global non-memory semiconductor market, and execute its investment following a comprehensive and maximally efficient national strategy. |
| Keywords: | semiconductors; chips; non-memory semiconductors; non-memory chips; system semiconductors; system chips; system semiconductors market; market analysis; US-China rivalry; investment; industrial strategy; Korea |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F51 F52 L10 L11 L16 L60 L63 O24 |
| Date: | 2023–08–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_018&r=inv |
| By: | Kim, Yangpaeng (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The global semiconductor industry has grown at an astonishing rate ever since semiconductors became a major part of the global economy in the 1980s. Not only has the industry been growing at a rate of upwards of 10 percent each year, but the time it takes for the semiconductor market to grow another USD 100 billion keeps getting shorter. Semiconductors can be divided into two main categories: memory chips and system chips. Over the last decade, the global markets for both have grown at consistent rates. New devices and electronics require both types of semiconductors and will continue to do so into the future. Semiconductors are integral to not just consumer electronics, but also to the development and growth of new technologies and industries. It is therefore not surprising that governments have begun to take active steps to secure access to semiconductors. However, the US and China are competing in a global fight for technological hegemony, and this battle has had adverse effects on the South Korean semiconductor industry. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the governments of major economies worldwide have adopted various measures, including subsidies and grants, to attract semiconductor manufacturers to their respective jurisdictions. The recent downturn in the semiconductor business cycle is an outcome of a confluence of factors. These include the slower innovation cycle in semiconductor technologies, falling demand since the end of the pandemic, and ongoing uncertainties in the global economy. Booms in the chip market are fueled by strong demand, but signs of such a recovery are dim amid gloomy consumer and investor sentiment. In the long run, however, the global semiconductor market is poised to achieve significant growth, and at even more astonishing rates than before, thanks to the emergence of new technologies, including artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, and self-driving cars. |
| Keywords: | semiconductors; manufacturing; memory semiconductors; system semiconductors; chips; US-China rivalry; semiconductor politics; chip wars; chip market; semiconductor market; chip market analysis; Korea |
| JEL: | E66 F02 F13 F17 F52 L60 L63 |
| Date: | 2023–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_015&r=inv |
| By: | Kim, Key Hwan (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade); Kang, Ji Hyun (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | The new green industry bill (known as la loi industrie verte) in France can be seen as the French version of the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The bill introduces new subsidies for electric vehicles (EVs), necessitating an analysis of the possible impact of these subsidies on Korean industries. The EV subsidies of the IRA are designed to relocate production and assembly of finished vehicles and key components parts back to the United States or the countries with which the US has free trade agreements (FTAs) in place. The EV subsidies introduced by the new bill in France, on the other hand, base subsidization on the carbon footprints of EV production and distribution. The new system of EV subsidies seeks to reduce the carbon footprint in six major areas of EV manufacturing: steel, aluminum, other materials, battery production, assembly, and transportation. This system effectively favors EVs produced in European countries, whose industries make more use of renewable energy and which are closer to France, at the cost of EV makers in China and elsewhere in Asia, as the long distances involved in transportation essentially preclude them from subsidization, and constitute non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Serving environmental and industrial objectives simultaneously, the new bill embodies an important paradigm shift in policymaking. From a trade perspective, this shift in the focus of protectionist policymaking from intermediate goods such as EV batteries to finished goods such as EVs threatens to see NTBs erected at every stage of the value chain in which these finished goods are produced. More barriers to trade under protectionist statutes like the IRA and France’s new green industry are likely to prompt the reintegration of markets and production bases after decades of geographical separation. Korean businesses will therefore be forced to change their business model, from an export-led approach that favored production in Korea to a model in which they increasingly produce goods in target markets. This has the potential to hollow out Korean industries. The manufacturing-driven Korean economy needs to adapt to new global reality radically different from the heyday of globalization, when major importing countries were neutral about foreign manufacturers. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles; EVs; batteries; secondary batteries; Inflation Reduction Act; IRA; la loi industrie verte; France; subsidies; EV subsidies; non-tariff barriers; NTBs; protectionism; economic nationalism; economic security; reshoring; France; Korea |
| JEL: | H23 H25 K32 L60 L62 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_016&r=inv |
| By: | Goo, Jin Kyung (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | As data plays an increasingly important role in many service industries, there has been a growing need for a more effective and systematic legislative and regulatory support structure to foster greater data use in these industries. This report examines the current state of data use in Korean service industries, and proposes ways to further promote data utilization. The demand for data by service firms in South Korea has been growing rapidly. Data use is more common among large corporations and businesses with short business histories. Relative to non-service industries, firm size has a weaker correlation with firm data utilization in the service sector. The extremely diverse nature of the service industry also means that data use is concentrated in a handful of segments, such as the information and communications, finance, and trade and logistics sectors. A survey of service businesses on data use shows that firms in these industries mainly collect and use data for two reasons: to develop and improve their products and services and to support marketing efforts. Of the various types of data available, customer information is most commonly used. However, the survey also found that various laws and regulations constrain firms’ utilization of data. In Korea, the Personal Information Protection Act sets limits on how firms may use customer data, and firms also identified the possibility of legal disputes erupting over personal data use as a significant barrier. In addition, both firms that use data and firms that do not pointed to a quantitative and qualitative lack of skilled workers as the biggest hindrance to increased data use. Policy support should therefore be focused primarily on developing human resources with data skills to facilitate increased data use in service industries. The Korean government has already undertaken various initiatives to educate and train data specialists, but these efforts have been insufficient, and a number of factors have conspired to limit the effectiveness of the programs. Policymakers need to strengthen ties between various courses and extend the training periods of data specialists, while also introducing new Ph.D programs at specialized graduate schools. Guidelines are also needed to expedite data standardization and integration across industries. Systems of governance should also be established in different service industries to help alleviate the legal burden on firms that use data. |
| Keywords: | service industry; data; data utilization; commercial data; personal data; data protection; personal information; regulation; reform; regulatory reform; personal information protection; Korea |
| JEL: | L80 L81 L86 L88 |
| Date: | 2023–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kietrp:2023_017&r=inv |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena (University of Groningen); Cnossen, Femke (University of Groningen); Nikolaev, Boris (Colorado State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper is the first to examine the impact of robotization on work meaningfulness and autonomy, competence, and relatedness, which are essential to motivation and well-being at work. Drawing on surveys from workers and industry-specific robotization data across 14 industries in 20 European countries from 2005 to 2021, our analysis reveals a consistent negative impact of robotization on perceived work meaningfulness and autonomy. Using instrumental variables, we find that doubling robotization correlates with a 0.9% decrease in work meaningfulness and a 1% decrease in autonomy. To put this in perspective, aligning the robotization intensity of the top five industry with the leading industry's robotization level in 2020—which would mean a 7.5-fold increase—would lead to a 6.8% reduction in work meaningfulness and a 7.5% reduction in autonomy. The link between robotization, competence, and relatedness is also negative but less robust. We also examine how tasks, skills, and socio-demographic characteristics moderate the relationship. We find that workers with routine tasks drive the negative effects of robotization on autonomy. However, we also discover that engaging in social tasks and utilizing computers as tools for independent work can help workers maintain a sense of autonomy in industries and job roles that adopt robots. Our results highlight that by deteriorating work meaningfulness and self-determination, robotization can impact work life above and beyond its consequences for employment and wages. |
| Keywords: | work meaningfulness, self-determination theory, robotization, automation |
| JEL: | J01 J30 J32 J81 I30 I31 M50 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16656&r=inv |
| By: | Chahir Zaki (University of Orléans); Alzaki Alhelo (University of Khartoum); Kabbashi Suliman (University of Khartoum) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to examine the nexus between trade, food security and the war in Ukraine with a special focus on Egypt and Sudan. Given the high dependency of the two countries on wheat imports, both experienced high inflation and lower economic growth, threatening their food security. Thus, the contribution of the paper is threefold: first, it examines the macroeconomic implications of the war on the two economies. Second, it analyzes the extent to which food security deteriorated and finally how trade can partially help improve food security in the two countries. To do so, using an error correction model, our results show that the exchange rate pass through was high in Egypt and Sudan and can have long-term implications on inflation. To move forward, we explore how the two countries might develop bilateral capacities targeting agriculture, electricity, and infrastructure with the view to scale-up the economic cooperation. We show, using the trade complementarity index that despite a limited complementarity between their trade structures, there is room to increase their bilateral exports if infrastructure and other behind-theborder barriers are addressed. |
| Date: | 2023–11–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1659&r=inv |
| By: | Rutledge, Zach; Richards, Timothy; Martin, Philip |
| Abstract: | Adverse Effect Wage Rates (AEWRs) are regional minimum wages paid to foreign employees working in the United States under the H-2A visa non-immigrant agricultural guest worker program. AEWRs were established as a mechanism to prevent US farmworkers from adverse effects due to the employment of foreign guest workers. However, AEWRs may have unintended consequences. We develop a simple theoretical framework to gain insights into how the AEWRs may influence the wages of non-H-2A farm employees. Our model predicts that higher AEWRs cause the wages of non-H-2A farm employees to rise through two channels: (i) a substitution effect and (ii) a market signalling effect, or “lighthouse effect, ” where non-H-2A employees use the AEWR as a benchmark to demand higher wages from employers. We test these hypotheses using a regression framework with data from the National Agricultural Workers Survey. Our estimates suggest that a 10% increase in the AEWR causes a three percent wage increase of non-H-2A farm employees across the nation and a five percent increase in the top five H-2A employment states where more than half the H-2A jobs are certified. We find that one-year AEWR freeze would reduce the growth of wages paid to US-based farm employees by about $500 million. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:assa24:339074&r=inv |
| By: | Guzmán-Tordecilla, Nicolas (Universidad de los Andes); Torres, Jorge Enrique (Universidad de los Andes); Guzmán-Ruiz, Yenny (Universidad de los Andes); Lucumí, Diego (Universidad de los Andes) |
| Abstract: | Las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles están principalmente asociados a la inactividad física, alimentación no saludable, el consumo de tabaco y excesivo alcohol. Afectan a todos los grupos de edad y a todas las regiones del país. No obstante, son las personas mayores de treinta años, quienes, por acumulación de riesgos, suelen tener una mayor predisposición al desarrollo de estas condiciones. En Colombia, 70 % de todas las muertes al año se deben a ECNT. En el país, seis de cada diez adultos presentan sobrepeso u obesidad, y una cuarta parte de la población adulta tiene hipertensión arterial (HTA), siendo estos los dos factores de riesgo más proximales asociados al desarrollo de enfermedades cardiovasculares. Además, el riesgo de presentar enfermedades cardiovasculares se ha incrementado en la población joven. Así mismo, se ha identificado que cada año aproximadamente 20.000 personas desarrollan enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC) atribuible al consumo de tabaco y otras 10.000 más son diagnosticadas de algún cáncer asociado al consumo de tabaco. Parte de estos resultados pueden estar asociados al hecho de que en Colombia la mitad de los adultos no cumplen con las recomendaciones de actividad física y consumen menos de una fruta o verdura al día. |
| Keywords: | Salud pública; enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles; COVID-19; Colombia; hábitos saludables |
| JEL: | D04 D31 D60 D63 |
| Date: | 2023–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000547:020990&r=inv |
| By: | Chantal Pezold; Simon Jäger; Patrick Nüss |
| Abstract: | We study how labor market conditions affect unionization decisions. Tight labor markets might spur unionization, e.g., by reducing the threat of unemployment after management opposition or employer retaliation in response to a unionization attempt. Tightness might also weaken unionization by providing attractive outside alternatives to engaging in costly unionization. Drawing on a large-scale, representative survey experiment among U.S. workers, we show that an increase in worker beliefs about labor market tightness moderately raises support for union activity. Effect sizes are small as they imply that moving from trough to peak of the business cycle increases workers’ probability of voting for a union by one percentage point. To study equilibrium effects, we draw on three quasi-experimental research designs using data from across U.S. states and counties over several decades. We find no systematic effect of changes in aggregate labor market tightness on union membership, union elections, and strikes. Overall, our results challenge the notion that labor market tightness significantly drives U.S. unionization. |
| JEL: | D83 E32 J21 J23 J51 J52 J53 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31988&r=inv |
| By: | MOLICA Francesco (European Commission - JRC); MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC); CONTE Andrea (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates Cohesion Policy programmes’ ability to define accurate policy outputs, in the form of output targets, to monitor their own performance. More specifically, the analysis explores the extent to which targets set by ERDF programmes are revised over time and seeks to identify specific patterns in relation to different areas (spending categories; typology of regions; etc.). Our results point to significant challenges faced by programmes in producing realistic targets as changes are frequently introduced for a vast majority of them. The paper provides useful evidence in the context of the emerging debate as to whether embracing a full performance based model conditioning the access to funds to the achievement of results/outputs would improve the efficiency and effectiveness of Cohesion Policy. |
| Keywords: | cohesion policy; Recovery and Resilience Facility; ERDF; performance; European Union |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:termod:202312&r=inv |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Guinea Bissau’s socio-political context remained stable during the transition to an opposition-led new government, but the country is facing an adverse external shock. Disappointing cashew nut exports have widened the current account deficit substantially, while financing is constrained by tighter regional financial conditions. High food prices are causing food insecurity risks. Against this backdrop, the authorities have requested augmentation of access of 40 percent of quota (SDR 11.36 million) to meet pressing financing needs, bringing the total program access to 140 percent of quota (SDR 39.76 million). The ECF-supported program has been catalyzing much-needed highly concessional financing, especially additional budget support. |
| Date: | 2023–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2023/403&r=inv |
| By: | Nicola Daniele Coniglio (University of Bari Aldo Moro, Italy. School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu, Estonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the local community-level effects of Filipino labor migration on the income and expenditure of households. Using the IV method, it examines the effects of district-level migration rates on fifteen different categories of household income and expenditure, which altogether form the core of household income and expenditure structure. Migration is shown to have no significant impact on families’ total income or expenditure. However, it is negatively associated with the wages and salaries of families left behind. Determining whether this result reflects the moral hazard problem or the takeover of the departed migrant’s household chores by another family member (or any other explanation) is beyond the scope of this paper. The effect on receipts from abroad is, expectedly, positive and significant. Concerning household expenditure by category, no significant effect of migration was detected, except for migrants’ educational attainment having a positive and significant effect on education spending, which together with medical care spending is sometimes referred to as households’ ‘investments in human capital’. It is also positively associated with expenditures on durable goods and equipment, as well as housing and utilities. The main contribution to the literature is that, for the first time, the relationship between labor migration and economic outcomes has been analyzed at the district level. Considering the well-documented positive effects of Filipino overseas migration on various dimensions of household welfare at the level of individual households, regions, and the whole nation, the fact that neither total income nor expenditure is affected by the rate of local communities’ migration might entail that, at this level of governance, the Philippine migration policy framework is lacking. Further research is required to foster a more thorough understanding of the interrelationship between migration and household economic outcomes at the local community level and inform the meso-level migration policy in the Philippines. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bai:egeiwp:egei_wp-3_2023&r=inv |
| By: | Gracy Mungosy Tsongo (Université de Goma); Anselme Paluku Kitakya (Université de Goma); Rodrigue Muhindo Kalere (Université de Goma) |
| Abstract: | Informality is an obstacle to economic development. Liberal authors associate it with clandestine operations carried out with the aim of evading public regulations, the costs of which are considered exorbitant. This paper aims to examine the effects of fiscal pressure on the size of the informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa. To better achieve this objective, an empirical approach was adopted on a panel of 30 countries in this region over the period 2000-2017. The variables of tax pressure and informality were measured respectively by an intuitive indicator, i.e. the ratio of tax revenue to GDP, and by the size of the informal economy as a percentage of GDP observed on the basis of the multiple indicators multiple causes model (MIMIC). The estimates were carried out using a dynamic panel model by the system generalized method of moments and reveal the existence of positive effects of the tax pressure on informality. These effects are much more pronounced in low-income countries than in middle-income countries in the robustness checks of different income groups. In these countries, the informal sector is characterized by small production units with low sales. Excessive tax regulations suffocate these entrepreneurs, who prefer to remain in the informal sector or take refuge in it because of the complexity of procedures and tax harassment. The ensuing economic policy implications concern, on the one hand, the stimulation of aggregate demand by governments, by prioritizing social spending to enable businesses to increase their production levels and obtain consistent profits that will enable them to bear the tax burden, and on the other hand, the simplification of registration procedures, the reduction of formalization costs and the digitization of the tax collection process. |
| Abstract: | Résumé L'informalité constitue une entrave au développement économique. Les auteurs d'obédience libérale l'associent aux opérations clandestines menées dans le but d'échapper aux réglementions publiques dont les coûts sont jugés exorbitants. Le présent article examine les effets de la pression fiscale sur la taille de l'économie informelle en Afrique sub-saharienne. Pour mieux atteindre cet objectif, il a été adopté une démarche empirique sur un panel de 30 pays de cette région sur la période 2000-2017. Les variables pression fiscale et informalité ont été mesurées respectivement par l'indicateur intuitif de la pression fiscale en l'occurrence le ratio recettes fiscales/PIB et par la taille de l'économie informelle en pourcentage du PIB observée sur base du modèle MIMIC (multiple indicators multiple causes model). Les estimations ont été réalisées à l'aide d'un modèle de panel dynamique par la méthode des moments généralisés en système et révèlent l'existence des effets positifs de la pression fiscale sur l'informalité. Grâce au test de robustesse, il est établit que ces effets sont beaucoup plus prononcés dans les pays à faibles revenus que dans ceux à revenus intermédiaires. Dans ces pays, le secteur informel est caractérisé par des petites unités de production ayant un faible niveau de chiffre d'affaires. La règlementation fiscale excessive entraine l'asphyxie de ces entrepreneurs qui préfèrent demeurer dans l'informel ou s'y réfugier à la suite de la complexité des procédures et aux tracasseries fiscales. Les implications de politiques économiques qui en découlent concernent d'une part la stimulation de la demande globale par les Etats en priorisant les dépenses à caractère social afin de permettre aux entreprises d'accroitre leur niveau de production, d'obtenir des bénéfices consistants qui les rendront capables de supporter les charges fiscales et d'autre part la simplification des procédures d'enregistrement, l'allégement des coûts de formalisation et la numérisation du processus de recouvrement fiscal. Mots clés : Informalité, Pression fiscale, Méthode des Moments Généralisés, Afrique subsaharienne. Classification JEL : H32 Type de l'article : Recherche appliquée Abstract Informality is an obstacle to economic development. Liberal authors associate it with clandestine operations carried out with the aim of evading public regulations, the costs of which are considered exorbitant. This paper aims to examine the effects of fiscal pressure on the size of the informal economy in Sub-Saharan Africa. To better achieve this objective, an empirical approach was adopted on a panel of 30 countries in this region over the period 2000-2017. The variables of tax pressure and informality were measured respectively by an intuitive indicator, i.e. the ratio of tax revenue to GDP, and by the size of the informal economy as a percentage of GDP observed on the basis of the multiple indicators multiple causes model (MIMIC). The estimates were carried out using a dynamic panel model by the system generalized method of moments and reveal the existence of positive effects of the tax pressure on informality. These effects are much more pronounced in low-income countries than in middle-income countries in the robustness checks of different income groups. In these countries, the informal sector is characterized by small production units with low sales. Excessive tax regulations suffocate these entrepreneurs, who prefer to remain in the informal sector or take refuge in it because of the complexity of procedures and tax harassment. The ensuing economic policy implications concern, on the one hand, the stimulation of aggregate demand by governments, by prioritizing social spending to enable businesses to increase their production levels and obtain consistent profits that will enable them to bear the tax burden, and on the other hand, the simplification of registration procedures, the reduction of formalization costs and the digitization of the tax collection process. Keywords: Informality, Tax Pressure, Generalized Method of Moment, Sub-Saharan Africa. JEL Classification: H32 Paper type: Empirical research |
| Keywords: | Informality Tax Pressure Generalized Method of Moment Sub-Saharan Africa. JEL Classification: H32 Paper type: Empirical research, Informality, Tax Pressure, Generalized Method of Moment, Sub-Saharan Africa. JEL Classification: H32 Paper type: Empirical research |
| Date: | 2023–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04315661&r=inv |
| By: | Tom Drake (Center for Global Development); Sophie Gulliver (Independent consultant); Jon Harle (INASP) |
| Abstract: | Global systems for research dissemination, dominated by a few major publishers, continue to restrict access to significant amounts of new research, and many cannot afford to pay often high publishing charges. Decades of initiatives to improve access to research have yielded only modest successes. In 2023, the research landscape is shifting. Emerging economies are producing ever more of the world’s research, and some are pioneering alternative models for research publishing. Without significant reform, research publishing—and wider research systems—risk fracturing into regional silos, thereby entrenching inequities and undermining our collective ability to face global challenges. Ahead of the 2023 G20 Summit in India, this paper argues that the G20 is well placed to provide the leadership needed to ensure that research is a global public good by elevating the discourse on research publishing reform and acknowledging that this is not merely a niche concern for researchers but an important global challenge that underpins human progress. It also argues that by advocating for effective policy change vehicles, championing equitable funding mechanisms, and driving policy harmonisation, the G20 can help to dismantle the barriers to research access created by the current publishing system. |
| Date: | 2023–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:306&r=inv |
| By: | Alicia Martin-Navarro; Jose Aurelio Medina-Garrido; Felix Velicia-Martin |
| Abstract: | The literature on effectual theory offers validated scales to measure effectual or causal logic in entrepreneurs' decision-making. However, there are no adequate scales to assess in advance the effectual or causal propensity of people with an entrepreneurial intention before the creation of their companies. We aim to determine the validity and reliability of an instrument to measure that propensity by first analysing those works that provide recognised validated scales with which to measure the effectual or causal logic in people who have already started up companies. Then, considering these scales, we designed a scale to evaluate the effectual or causal propensity in people who had not yet started up companies using a sample of 230 final-year business administration students to verify its reliability and validity. The validated scale has theoretical implications for the literature on potential entrepreneurship and entrepreneurial intention and practical implications for promoters of entrepreneurship who need to orient the behaviour of entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs of established businesses who want to implement a specific strategic orientation, entrepreneurs who want to evaluate the effectual propensity of their potential partners and workers, and academic institutions interested in orienting the entrepreneurial potential of their students. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2312.00916&r=inv |
| By: | Ferdi Botha; Davis C. Ribar; Chandana Maitra; Roger Wilkins |
| Abstract: | Food insecurity—the lack of access to enough food for an active, healthy life—has many causes, including insufficient incomes, high levels of competing expenditure needs, and inadequate facilities to store and prepare food. These and other characteristics that contribute to food insecurity may also contribute to other personal and household hardships, meaning that many people may experience food insecurity as one of several co-occurring hardships. This study examines people’s experiences of (1) food insecurity, (2) poor financial wellbeing, (3) poor physical health and long-term disability, (4) low levels of social support, and (5) inadequate economic resources and housing stress, using 2020 data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. The study finds food insecurity typically co-occurs with other hardships. Among Australians who are food insecure, nearly two thirds experience one of the other hardships that we examine, and just under one third experience multiple other hardships. |
| Keywords: | Food insecurity, hardships, co-occurrence, Australia |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2023-11&r=inv |
| By: | Léa Munich (Université de Franche-Comté, CRESE, F-25000 Besançon, France) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we optimize and allocate the costs of a non-rival common-pool resource among several users. In such a so-called schedule situation the players have different demands given by distinct subsets of periods satisfying their needs. The total costs resulting from shared use of the resource are allocated by natural allocations called Equal Pooling allocations, in which the cost of each needed period is shared equally among the users of this period. The associated schedule game gives, for each coalition of players, the minimal cost of a period configuration satisfying the needs of all its members. We have three main contributions. First, we provide several sufficient conditions for the non-emptiness of the core of a schedule game. Second, we prove that under some of these conditions the Shapley value is in the core and coincides with some Equal pooling allocation. Third, we establish connections with other classes of operational research games. Furthermore, we present an application to the allocation of the common costs of the mail carrier route of La Poste, the french postal operator. |
| Keywords: | Game theory, Schedule, OR-game, Cost allocation, Equal pooling allocations |
| JEL: | C71 L87 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2023-08&r=inv |
| By: | Clemence Landers (Center for Global Development); Karen Mathiasen (Center for Global Development); Samuel Matthews (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | The climate agenda has been a dominant feature of World Bank reform efforts, with President Banga aiming to both mobilize new resources and increase the proportion of total funding for climate-related projects. The stakes are high: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in many borrowing countries are elevated and rising, dimming prospects for meeting the 2030 Paris Agreement target to limit warming to a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase. To date, stakeholders have focused on how to mobilize new funding for climate mitigation reflecting an emphasis on the supply side (e.g., financing) of the agenda. But there has been little analysis on the demand side (or project pipeline). The assumption is that more money will generate more demand. But this does not necessarily follow. In this paper, we discuss major factors that will influence demand for climate mitigation projects, especially from the largest emitters of greenhouse gases (e.g., China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico). Our assessment is that factors like World Bank borrowing costs and access to alternative sources of finance will likely limit demand absent financial incentives, which could prove costly and difficult to resource at the scale needed to have meaningful impact. We also see a risk that these incentives could be used inefficiently absent a rigorous analysis to identify where they could have the most impact and a robust framework for assessing results. |
| Date: | 2023–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:315&r=inv |
| By: | Christa Brunnschweiler (School of Economics, University of East Anglia); Nanang Kurniawan (Department of Politics and Government, Universitas Gadja Mada); Paivi Lujalac (Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu); Primi Putri (Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu); Sabrina Scherzer (Department of Geography, NTNU); Indah Wardhani (Department of Politics and Government, Universitas Gadja Mada) |
| Abstract: | The governance of natural resource wealth is a key factor in promoting strong institutions and economic development in resource-rich countries. In this paper, we explore how individuals engagement in local natural resource revenue (NRR) management can be enhanced and encouraged. We focus on Indonesia, which is a large gold and petroleum producer, among other natural resources, with local challenges such as underdevelopment of resource-rich areas and corruption. We run a randomized survey experiment among 807 local community members in an oil-rich district using videos with three information treatments that give citizens salient and easily understandable information on local NRR and additional motivation to use this information to engage in NRR management. Our outcomes include survey questions on stated behavior and citizen rights perception regarding NRR management, and two incentive-compatible measures. We find that providing easily understandable information increases respondents sense of the right to personally influence how NRR are used and the propensity to donate to an anti-corruption NGO. Our positive example treatment was able to increase respondents sense of their right to benefit from NRR and their right to influence NRR management, while our negative example treatment had no impact on our outcomes. We also explore intervening mechanisms and heterogeneous effects. Providing the population of resource-rich areas with easily understood information on NRR management that is relevant to the local context offers an encouraging avenue for combating NRR-related mismanagement and corruption. |
| Keywords: | accountability, survey experiment, video, Indonesia, petroleum revenues, information treatment |
| JEL: | Q35 Q38 H41 H23 D80 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaeco:2023-06&r=inv |
| By: | zhdanov, dmitry |
| Abstract: | Measuring the value of human capital (HC) of an enterprise is traditionally, on the one hand, the key task of managing the human resources potential of a business, and on the other hand, it is a difficult task that has not found its correct solution. In this regard, the purpose of this study was to develop an algorithm that allows evaluating methods for measuring the HC of an enterprise in terms of the accuracy of the results they receive. To achieve this goal, a methodological approach was used in the work, based on a comparative analysis of existing practices for measuring HC, grouping these procedures according to key features, followed by ranking the formed groups based on parameters that determine the adequacy of the estimates obtained. The paper initially presents a detailed analysis of methods for measuring the HC of an enterprise. Further, taking into account the review, a typification of existing methods for measuring HC was carried out, where the nature of the initial data used for calculations was used as a grouping criterion. The following types of them were singled out: invested funds; current indicators (indicators); return on investment. In order to identify methods that provide the best confidence in the results obtained, the existing tools were distributed based on the reliability of the raw data. As a result, an approach was formed that made it possible to rank the methods for assessing the value of the company's HC, from the standpoint of the reliability of displaying the area under study, which distinguishes this method from existing procedures. At the end of the work, ways are proposed to increase the HC of an enterprise, taking into account the preferences of active workers, in particular, their attention to ensuring the well-being of employees by the employer. |
| Keywords: | corporate, individual human capital; measurement methods; personnel, personnel. |
| JEL: | J24 M12 O15 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119419&r=inv |
| By: | Schlund, David (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)) |
| Abstract: | The introduction of clean hydrogen as a future energy commodity has prompted significant interest in developing dedicated transportation and storage infrastructures as an enabler for cross-border hydrogen trade and cost-efficient supply. This paper addresses the complex challenges associated with the development of a European hydrogen infrastructure within the existing natural gas network while maintaining the security of supply for natural gas. Through an extension of an existing dispatch model for European natural gas supply and transportation by endogenous investments in hydrogen production, transportation, and storage infrastructure, a comprehensive analysis of the interplay between natural gas and hydrogen supply becomes accessible. The new model is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program in order to explicitly consider the binary decision of repurposing natural gas pipelines. The results offer insights into the cost-efficient strategic planning of a European hydrogen network by simulating a range of scenarios with varying economic and technical constraints. The case study finds a dominant role of the availability of renewable energy sources in shaping the network. Also, providing flexibility through flexible imports, production, or hydrogen storage becomes an essential element in a future hydrogen supply chain. The interconnection of all European countries with dedicated hydrogen pipelines is robust across all scenarios. However, the sizing and choice of large import pipelines strongly depend on the assumed techno-economic constraints. |
| Keywords: | hydrogen economics; hydrogen infrastructure; hydrogen storage; hydrogen trade; strategic energy planning; mixed-integer linear program |
| JEL: | C61 L95 M20 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–12–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:ewikln:2023_008&r=inv |
| By: | Pollini Adriana; Botteon Claudia |
| Abstract: | De las diversas razones expuestas para justificar la existencia de la banca de desarrollo, una de las más comunes es la necesidad de incluir financieramente a algunos actores/áreas que la banca tradicional excluye, debido a las particularidades propias del sistema financiero. La exclusión puede ser parcial o total y viene dada por las condiciones exigentes en términos de garantías, documentación, tasas, plazos, etc., que hacen que al potencial tomador de créditos le resulten tan onerosos que revierte la bondad de la actividad a la que lo destinarían. Usualmente, son las pequeñas y medianas empresas, los proyectos con amplio periodo de maduración y las empresas innovadoras las que mayormente resultan afectadas por el racionamiento y el encarecimiento del crédito. Teniendo en cuenta esta problemática, cabe preguntarse cuándo se justifica la intervención de la banca de desarrollo y cuál es el resultado atribuible a la misma. Para dar respuesta al primer interrogante una forma de proceder es analizar bajo qué condiciones la ejecución de un proyecto socialmente rentable depende, sine qua non, de la intervención de la banca. La respuesta del segundo interrogante está directamente relacionada con la del primero. El resultado atribuible a la intervención de la banca de desarrollo está dado por el beneficio social neto de los proyectos que no se hubiesen llevado a cabo de no mediar intervención de la banca. La dificultad latente en esta segunda respuesta radica en la adecuada identificación, cuantificación y valoración de esos beneficios y costos sociales, lo cual, en la práctica, no es una tarea sencilla. |
| JEL: | D7 H4 |
| Date: | 2022–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aep:anales:4619&r=inv |
| By: | Jan Bietenbeck; Natalie Irmert; Linn Mattisson; Felix Weinhardt |
| Abstract: | We study whether autonomous schools, which are publicly funded but can operate more independently than government-run schools, affect student achievement and school segregation across 15 countries over 16 years. Our triple-differences regressions exploit between-grade variation in the share of students attending autonomous schools within a given country and year. While autonomous schools do not affect overall achievement, effects are positive for high-socioeconomic status students and negative for immigrants. Impacts on segregation mirror these findings, with evidence of increased segregation by socioeconomic and immigrant status. Rather than creating "a rising tide that lifts all boats", autonomous schools increase inequality. |
| Keywords: | autonomous schools, student achievement, school segregation |
| Date: | 2023–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1968&r=inv |
| By: | Adrian Gheorghe (Center for Global Development); Sophie Gulliver (Center for Global Development); Abha Mehndiratta (Center for Global Development); Javier Guzman (Center for Global Development); Peter Baker (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | Rigorous, explicit, evidence-informed priority-setting (EIPS) in healthcare is an essential instrument for achieving value for money in Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Growing pressures on healthcare budgets, combined with the post-COVID-19 fiscal crises and a plateauing of development assistance for health, make institutionalising of EIPS a particularly critical and timely policy goal. We introduce iProSE—the iDSI Progression Scale for institutionalising EIPS in healthcare. iProSE is a self-assessment scale aiming to help countries understand how far they have progressed in institutionalising EIPS and what can be their future priorities and to help development partners better tailor their country support in this area. We propose an index resulting from the assessment of eight aspirational statements on EIPS: two statements relate to key spending decisions (“What health technologies to cover from public funds?” and “At what prices to procure health technologies from public funds?”), and six statements relate to enabling factors for institutionalising EIPS. Statements are scored on the basis of information available in official documents against the extent to which the statements fall on an implementation spectrum ranging from policy intention to full, systematic implementation. Based on the scored statements, EIPS institutionalisation can be categorised as Foundational, Breakthrough, Consolidating, or Mature. An example of application of iProSE is presented capturing India’s progress in moving from Breakthrough in 2016 to Consolidating in 2022. |
| Date: | 2023–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:ppaper:286&r=inv |