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on International Trade |
| By: | Hyeseon, Shin; Gomes de Silva, Raphael; Litvinov, Valentyn; Oh, Saera; Thien, Anh Phuoc |
| Abstract: | Theme Day Session Summary. This IATRC Policy Brief summarizes the outcomes of the Annual Meeting Theme Day presentations. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats23:340810&r=int |
| By: | ISHIKAWA Jota; KIYONO Kazuharu; YOMOGIDA Morihiro |
| Abstract: | We explore the effects of international technology transfers on global warming and welfare in a two-country (home and foreign), two-good, general equilibrium model with Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin features. We consider a situation in which both countries enforce emissions trading, and the home country, which has superior technologies in both sectors, has a comparative advantage in less emissions-intensive goods under free trade. The home country benefits from technology transfers in the more emissions-intensive industry due to an improvement in its terms of trade. The foreign country can also gain because global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) decrease. Technology transfer in the less emissions-intensive sector can lead to a more significant reduction in GHG emissions but may harm the home country. When free trade in emission permits and goods is allowed between countries, technology transfers in either sector will likely increase the emissions permit price without affecting global GHG emissions. An increase in the permit price negatively affects the welfare of the home country that imports permits from the foreign country. International emissions trading may reduce the incentive for technology transfers because there is no environmental benefit, and the permit price is higher. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24040&r=int |
| By: | Jang, Youngook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Joe, Donghee (JEONBUK NATIONAL UNIVERSITY) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the relationship between COVID-19 entry restrictions and dependence on immigrants. In response to the global COVID-19 pandemic, countries worldwide implemented international travel restrictions to reduce the entry of infected individuals. These measures included entry and exit bans, mandatory quarantine of travelers, and vaccination requirements, significantly altering global mobility patterns. Despite their proven effectiveness, entry restrictions also impose substantial economic costs, particularly evident in the form of reduced immigration and subsequent labor shortages in sectors reliant on immigrant labor. We introduce a theoretical framework to shed light on the factors influencing the determination of entry restrictions, encompassing both health and economic considerations. Empirical analyses reveal that countries heavily dependent on foreign labor are inclined to adopt less stringent border controls, balancing the economic costs associated with reduced immigrant workforce. Moreover, we argue that the strength of entry restrictions is determined by a government’s capacity to manage infection waves through means other than entry bans. Finally, we offer policy implications based on our research, on how to control the spread of infectious diseases while minimizing the costs imposed by reducing immigration and the cost imposed on the immigrants themselves. |
| Keywords: | India; Trade; Investment; Causality test; COVID-19; entry restrictions; immigration policy; immigrant workforce |
| JEL: | F22 I18 J61 |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwp:2023_004&r=int |
| By: | Kwak, Sungil (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Shin, Mingeum (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Kim, Jegook (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)); Jang, Yong Joon (Kyung Hee University); Choi, Bo-Young (KYUNGPOOK NATIONAL UNIVERSITY) |
| Abstract: | 본 연구는 한국과 아세안 간 경제협력에 기여하고 이들 국가에 대한 교역 확대를 목적으로 TBT와 SPS의 제도적 조화를 모색하기 위해 기획된 연구이다. RCEP 발효에 따른 역내 연계성 개선 노력이 필요한 시점에서 본 연구 주제는 시의성이 높다. 또한 본 연구는 아세안의 TBT/SPS 제도 및 정책 현황 검토, 역내 규제거리 측정, TBT/SPS가 수출국의 대아세안 수출에 미친 영향에 대한 실증적 분석, 중소ㆍ중견 기업 대상 설문조사 등 TBT와 SPS 조치에 대한 종합적인 접근을 통해 한국의 대응 방향에 대한 논의를 전개하고, 아세안과의 협력을 위한 구체적인 방향을 제시했다는 점에서 의미가 있다.TBT (Technical Barriers to Trade) and SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures) have two attributes. They act as barriers to trade expansion by protecting producers, but their importance has grown in terms of consumer protection measures after the COVID-19 pandemic. Rather than eliminating related regulations, achieving harmonization within the ASEAN region can simultaneously serve two objectives: expanding trade between South Korea and ASEAN and improving consumer protection. We assess the level of regional economic integration by measuring regulatory distances among ASEAN member states. We also measure regulatory distances between South Korea and ASEAN, and between Japan and ASEAN. We estimate the impact of ASEAN’s TBT and SPS on the export performance of countries exporting goods to the ASEAN region. In addition, a survey of South Korean firms exporting goods to the ASEAN region is conducted to assess their difficulties and to evaluate South Korea’s support policies. Chapter 2 evaluates the economic integration efforts within the ASEAN region, focusing on TBT and SPS. In 2020, ASEAN conducted a mid-term assessment of economic integration and produced the “Mid-Term Review: ASEAN Economic Blueprint 2025” in 2021. According to the results, ASEAN has achieved 54.1% of the sectoral work plans, with the remaining 34.2% currently underway and expected to be achieved without major problems. The ASEAN recognizes the need for regional integration to overcome the poly-crises facing the global economy. ASEAN Comprehensive Recovery Framework (ACRF) views economic integration as a means of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the associated poly-crises. As a result, intra-ASEAN trade and investment have increased steadily since 2021. (the rest omitted) |
| Keywords: | Trade barriers; economic integration; TBT; SPS; ASEAN economic integration |
| Date: | 2023–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieppa:2023_001&r=int |
| By: | Dominick Bartelme; Ting Lan; Mr. Andrei A Levchenko |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of external demand shocks on real income. We utilize a first order approximation to a wide class of small open economy models that feature sector-level gravity in trade flows, which allows us to measure foreign shocks and characterize their welfare impact in terms of reducedform elasticities. We use machine learning techniques to group 4-digit manufacturing sectors into a smaller number of clusters, and show that the cluster-level elasticities of income with respect to foreign shocks can be estimated using high-dimensional statistical techniques. Foreign demand shocks in complex intermediate and capital goods have large positive impacts on real income, whereas impacts in other sectors are negligible. We showthat the estimates imply that countries that specialize in these sectors enjoy greater gains from increased openness, and that (small) export subsidies to these sectors are welfare-improving. Finally, a calibrated multisector production and trade model with input-output linkages and external economies of scale can match the empirical estimates. |
| Keywords: | trade specialization; real income; gravity; k-means clustering |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/051&r=int |
| By: | Park, Byungyul (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Korea and India celebrated a historic milestone, commemorating the 50th anniversary of their formal diplomatic relationship. The two nations officially established diplomatic ties on November 21, 1973, but it was much later that bilateral trade and investment began to thrive. In the late 1990s, India shifted its focus to Korea’s automobile and IT industries, and several Korean industrial giants, including Hyundai Motor, LG, and Samsung Electronics, entered India. In 2009, the two countries signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which marked the beginning of what would become a robust trade relationship. Six years later, both countries agreed to deepen ties, and formed a Special Strategic Partnership, using the CEPA as a foundation for enhanced cooperation. India liberalized its economy in 1991, which paved the way for rapid economic growth to follow. Throughout the 2000s, Indian GDP expanded by an average of seven percent annually. In 2021, it emerged as the world’s sixth-largest economy, with a nominal GDP of approximately USD 3.14 trillion. This growth is set to continue unabated; ratings agency S&P Global projects that the Indian economy will expand by an annual average of 6.3 percent throughout the 2020s, eventually eclipsing Japan and Germany and propelling it to third place globally. Against a backdrop of declining Korean exports to China and the ASEAN member states, Korea is faced with the challenging of diversifying its export markets. This paper explores pathways for cooperation with India with a view toward establishing India as a major export partner. |
| Keywords: | India; Korea; India-Korea trade; exports; trade; Samsung; LG; Hyundai; LG; Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement; CEPA; Special Strategic Partnership; export diversification; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F23 F43 F53 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_003&r=int |
| By: | Gehrke, Esther (University of Wageningen); Genthner, Robert (University of Göttingen); Kis-Katos, Krisztina (University of Goettingen) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effect of rising protectionism towards foreign direct investment (FDI) on domestic employment, exploiting revisions in Indonesia’s highly-granular negative investment list, and spatial variation in the exposure of the manufacturing sector to these investment restrictions. Rising FDI restrictions caused employment gains at the local level, explaining about one-tenth of the aggregate employment increases observed between 2006 and 2016 in Indonesia. These employment gains went along with a reorganization of the local production structure, and new firm entries in the manufacturing sector that are concentrated among micro and small enterprises. While our results are consistent with an increase in the labor-to-capital ratio and reduced productivity among regulated firms (which allowed smaller and less productive firms to enter the market), we also document that at least half of the employment gains are driven by spillover-effects along the local value chain and into the service sector. |
| Keywords: | FDI regulation, Indonesia, local labor markets |
| JEL: | F16 F21 F23 J23 J31 L51 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16835&r=int |
| By: | NAKATOMI Michitaka |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the status of security exceptions in the WTO, their actual implementation and interpretation, and desired responses for the international trade system. In order to maintain the balance between security exceptions and free trade, it is essential to restore the WTO's legislative function, strengthen its monitoring and surveillance function, and quickly restore its dispute settlement function. The expansion of security exception measures is largely due to the sluggish legislative function of the WTO, and it is important to realize the results in such areas as the JSI (JOINT STATEMENT INITIATIVE), as well as to specify negotiation issues such as trade remedy measures. Moreover, the dialogue on matters of specific trade concern (STC) at WTO committees based on the TBT Agreement and other agreements has been effective and has also been helpful in resolving disputes, and is expected to be utilized for security exceptions. The establishment of new National Security Committee is also an issue for consideration. With regard to the restoration of the dispute resolution function, in order to prevent the abuse of the security exception and the acceleration of its black-boxing, it is essential to take into account its political nature and the U.S. position on the issue of justiciability, and it may be necessary to consider introducing a compensation mechanism on the grounds of non-violation. In disputes related to security exceptions, there is currently a strong possibility that the losing party will file an appeal into the void, which will further hollow out the dispute settlement function of the WTO. It is necessary to consider the option of introducing a binding, one stage dispute settlement system into the WTO dispute settlement to avoid this. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:24002&r=int |
| By: | Jingjing Lyu; Bernd Süssmuth |
| Abstract: | We introduce the technique of band spectral panel regression (BSPR) to analyze global linkages across sectors and frequency bands. It relies on decomposing time series —allowably measured in mixed observation frequency— into “deviation cycle” dynamics by frequency band. We use it to compute measures of real co-movement, trade linkage, financial market integration, and policy coordination band by band. Considering intra-industry as well as inter-industry linkage indicators, it is applied to data of contemporary China and its 20 major trading partners in the pre-trade war and pre-pandemic era. Band-specific fixed effects and band-industry-specific interaction terms are included. For labor intensive industries co-movement through intra-industry trade linkages is found to be band-specific. Moreover, our results clarify the puzzle of financial globalization implying real regionalization or contagious synchronization of cyclical dynamics. We find the latter to hold in the 4–6 years band and the former in the 6–10 years range. |
| Keywords: | spectral regression, frequency domain, cyclical co-movement, sectors |
| JEL: | C32 C49 E32 F40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10970&r=int |
| By: | Cristina Cattaneo; Emanuele Massetti; Shouro Dasgupta; Fabio Farinosi |
| Abstract: | We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; International Migration. |
| Date: | 2024–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/058&r=int |
| By: | Bouché, Stéphane (University of the Balearic Islands); Modesto, Leonor (Universidade Catolica Portuguesa, Lisbon) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of trade openness on education and environmental preservation choices in a two country model where both countries only differ in their shares of skilled workers. Parents may invest in their children's education increasing their probability to become skilled and in maintenance investment in order to preserve present and future environmental quality. Under autarky, unskilled individuals in the skill scarce economy are unable to invest in education due to borrowing constraints. Moreover, only skilled individuals of the latter economy choose to invest in environmental preservation. Openness to trade modifies relative factor prices and increases pollution. This allows for human capital convergence between both economies and induces all skilled individuals to contribute to environmental preservation in the free trade equilibrium. However, overall environmental quality decreases, suggesting a potential trade-off between income convergence at the global level and environmental preservation. We also focus on the optimal allocation under free trade and conclude that a maintenance investment subsidy should be implemented for skilled individuals but not necessarily for unskilled ones. |
| Keywords: | altruism, environmental preservation, international trade, human capital |
| JEL: | D64 F18 F64 I25 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16825&r=int |
| By: | Claire Giordano (Bank of Italy); Enrico Tosti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the negative shock to Italy's terms of trade since the second half of 2021: the shock was less pronounced than the 1973-74 oil crisis, yet particularly sharp. The terms-of-trade deterioration was driven by energy goods and was greater than in the other euro-area economies due to a higher rise in energy import prices and to a greater share of energy products in total imports. The energy component was also the main driver both of the strong deterioration in the current account balance and of the large negative income effect. At any rate, Italy has successfully weathered the storm: the gradual recovery in the terms of trade since 2022 has led to the return to a positive current account balance and to a positive income effect. |
| Keywords: | terms of trade, energy prices, energy shock |
| JEL: | F10 F40 Q40 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_831_24&r=int |
| By: | Alejandro Riano |
| Abstract: | This article shows how to use the publicy-available firm-level surveys produced by the World Bank Enterprise Surveys (WBES) to reproduce the stylized facts that characterize firm heterogeneity and its relationship with global engagement, as established by Bernard et al. (2007) for manufacturing firms in the U.S. The article describes how to incorporate this exercise in different teaching activities such as small group classes and homework and courseworks assignments. The activities proposed allow students to develop skills handling and analyzing firm-level data and, since WBES surveys are available for more than 150 countries since 2002, they offer an unique opportunity to evaluate the extent to which the stylized facts established from U.S. data are also representative of countries of different size and stage of development. The activities proposed connect the theory of trade with heterogeneous firms to the real-world empirical evidence that motivated the development of these models. |
| Keywords: | teaching international trade; heterogeneous firms; exports; imports; economic data; stylized facts. JEL classification: A22; F1 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:2023-10&r=int |
| By: | Clayton, Christopher; Maggiori, Matteo; Schreger, Jesse |
| Abstract: | Global powers, like the United States and China, exert influence on other countries by threatening the suspension or alteration of financial and trade relationships. We show that the mechanisms that generate gains from integration and specialization, such as external economies of scale, also increase these countries' power to exert economic influence because in equilibrium they make other relationships poor substitutes for those with a global hegemon. We study how smaller countries can insulate themselves from geoeconomic pressure from the great powers by pursuing anti-coercion policy. We show that while an individual country can make itself better off, uncoordinated attempts by multiple countries to limit their dependency on the hegemon lead to unwinding the global gains from integration and fragmenting the global financial and trade system. Countries resort to inefficient home alternatives, the more so hegemons are expected to want to exert their influence in disruptive ways. An integrated liberal world order emerges as an equilibrium when the hegemon's incentives are well aligned with the world economy, politically and economically. Generically, the world economy fragments along political and economic alignments. We study a leading application focusing on financial services and payment systems as both a tool of coercion by the hegemon and an industry with strong strategic complementarities at the global level. |
| Date: | 2024–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:j8wgx&r=int |
| By: | Baum, Christopher F. (Boston College, DIW Berlin and CESIS); Lööf, Hans (Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm); Stephan, Andreas (Linnaeus University and DIW Berlin); Zimmermann, Klaus F. (UNU-MERIT, Maastricht University, CEPR and GLO) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the wage earnings of fully-employed refugee immigrants in Sweden. Using administrative employer-employee data from 1990 and onwards, about 100, 000 refugee immigrants who arrived between 1980 and 1996 and were granted asylum are compared to a matched sample of native-born workers. Employing recentered influence function (RIF) quantile regressions for the period 2011–2015 to wage earnings, the occupational task-based Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition approach shows that refugees perform better than natives at the median wage, controlling for individual and firm characteristics. This overperformance is due to female refugee immigrants, who have higher wages than comparable native-born female peers up to the 8th decile of the wage distribution. Refugee immigrant females perform better than native females across all occupational tasks studied, including non-routine cognitive tasks. A remarkable similarity exists in the relative wage distributions among various refugee groups, suggesting that cultural differences and the length of time spent in the host country do not significantly affect their labor market performance. |
| Keywords: | refugees; wage earnings gap; occupational sorting; employer-employee data; recentered influence function; Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition |
| JEL: | C23 F22 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxesta:2024_003&r=int |
| By: | Agnieszka Fihel (IC Migrations - Institut Convergences Migrations [Aubervilliers], UW - University of Warsaw); Anna Janicka (UW - University of Warsaw); Marek Okólski (UW - University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Poland, traditionally a country of emigration, started to record a positive migration balance in recent years. However, thus far, no forecast has indicated the possibility of Poland's transition from a net sending to a net receiving regime. This study indicates the theoretical underpinnings of such a change and provides an international migration projection. To this end, we refer to the historical experiences of other European countries, more advanced in terms of the Demographic Transition (DT), Second Demographic Transition (SDT) and Migration Transition. We develop a deterministic migration projection of four types of flow (the in-and out-migration of nationals and foreign citizens) up until 2060, combined with the United Nations' Bayesian probabilistic models of fertility and mortality projections. The results show that Poland will evolve from having a net sending to having a net receiving status around 2030-2034. The combined effect of migration flows on population ageing will not be significant but, in the long run, when considered separately, the four types of flow will have non-negligible, though opposite, effects: the outflows will contribute to population rejuvenation, while the inflows will accelerate population ageing. |
| Keywords: | population ageing international migration migration projection demographic transition migration transition Poland, population ageing, international migration, migration projection, demographic transition, migration transition, Poland |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04488199&r=int |
| By: | Ramón Rey; Günther G. Schulze; Nikita Zakharov |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of Venezuelan transit migration on crime rates in Colombia. We exploit the reopening of the Venezuela-Colombia border in 2016, which has led to a surge in transit migration, and geospatial information about the distinct routes through which the migrants crossed Colombia. Employing a difference-in-differences approach and propensity score matching, we find that transit migration increased property crime rates in crossed municipalities, with both native Colombians and Venezuelan refugees seeing higher victimization rates. Violent crimes remained unaffected. This is the first study to document a link between transit migration and crime. |
| Keywords: | transit migration, crime, migration |
| JEL: | K42 F22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10953&r=int |
| By: | Tatsushi Okuda; Tomohiro Tsuruga |
| Abstract: | This paper applies the two-country open-economy model with trade in stocks and bonds of Coeurdacier et al. (2010) to quantify the loss of international diversification benefits for major advanced economies, which have a significant presence in international financial markets, under geoeconomic fragmentation. We perform counterfactual simulations under different hypothetical fragmentation scenarios in which these economies are unable to trade with geopolitically distant countries, as measured by voting disagreement on foreign policy issues at the United Nations General Assembly meetings during 2012-2021. The simulation results imply a potentially significant loss of international diversification benefits of financial openness for the considered advanced economies by limiting trading to partner countries that are geopolitical allies with highly synchronized business cycles. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk; financial integration; international risk sharing |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2024/048&r=int |
| By: | Gimiseve, Harry; Miamba, Nelson; Na’ata, Bartholomew; Dorosh, Paul; Schmidt, Emily; Yadav, Shweta |
| Abstract: | In 2023, Papua New Guinea introduced a partial ban on poultry imports from Australia and Asian countries (representing about 70 percent of total PNG poultry imports) in response to the biosecurity threat posed by Avian Influenza (bird flu). Such a restriction on supply has the potential to lead to sharp price increases, steep reductions in household consumption and greater food insecurity. This memo presents an overview of PNG’s poultry sector and describes an analysis of the ef fects of these trade restrictions on poultry prices, production and consumption using a partial equilibrium model of PNG’s poultry sector. This new analysis builds on earlier work (Dorosh and Schmidt, 2023) that explored the implications of a total ban on poultry imports, by simulating the impacts of a partial poultry ban, including the effects on various household groups within PNG. |
| Keywords: | PAPUA NEW GUINEA; OCEANIA; poultry; imports; biosecurity; avian influenza; supply; prices; household consumption; food security; trade |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:pngprn:140446&r=int |
| By: | Yoshihiko Hogen (Bank of Japan); Yojiro Ito (Bank of Japan); Kenji Kanai (Bank of Japan); Naoya Kishi (Bank of Japan) |
| Abstract: | The effects of globalization on Japan's economy over the past quarter century can be summarized in the following five features. First, compared with the United States and Europe, Japanese firms have tended to raise productivity by improving the efficiency of their production processes through use of low-cost inputs from abroad. Second, a decline in the competitiveness of Japan's trading sector is due to intensifying competition from abroad and it can be seen as a factor behind the deterioration in Japan's terms of trade and the depreciation of the yen's real effective exchange rate in the long run. Third, there has been a shift in employment from the manufacturing sector to the nonmanufacturing sector, while a wage gap between these two sectors has widened. Fourth, globalization has exerted continuous downward pressure on inflation in Japan for most of the past 25 years. Fifth, in the face of declining price markups, partly due to intensified competition from overseas, Japanese firms have been able to secure their profits by increasing wage markdowns. Given the growing debate about the risk of deglobalization and the impact of heightened geopolitical risks, it is worth deepening our understanding of the impact of these factors on Japan's economy by carefully examining how the five characteristics outlined above will change (or whether they will not). |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Productivity; FDI; Terms of trade; Exchange rates; Labor market; Wages; Inflation; Price markups; Wage markdowns |
| JEL: | F10 F20 F30 F40 F60 F61 F62 |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp24e03&r=int |
| By: | Beber, Bernd (RWI); Ebert, Cara (RWI); Sievert, Maximiliane (RWI) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the extent to which asylum policies that aim to deter individuals from migrating irregularly in fact do so. We specifically consider effects of Germany's recent and high-profile asylum policy adjustments, which include accelerated asylum decision processes, the prospect of asylum processing outside of Europe, the introduction of a payment card to replace cash benefits, and an extended waiting period for native-level benefits. In order to estimate effects of these policy measures on irregular migration intent, we implement a conjoint experiment with 989 men aged 18–40 in four cities in Senegal, a population of most-likely migrants in a country where irregular migration to Europe is highly salient. We find that offshoring the asylum process significantly and substantially lowers irregular migration intentions across nearly all types of subjects. Extending the waiting time for native-level benefits only has a small, marginally significant effect on intent, and no effect among the poorest subjects and those that are most motivated to migrate internationally. Neither reducing asylum processing times nor replacing cash benefits with a payment card significantly alters intentions. We note that the presence or absence of an effect does not resolve political and normative questions concerning these policies, which are beyond the scope of this particular study. |
| Keywords: | asylum policy, irregular migration, conjoint experiment |
| JEL: | F22 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16850&r=int |
| By: | Song, Myungkoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the effects of the changing global automotive landscape from several perspectives. In particular, we consider changes in vehicle production and sales to assess the supply and demand sides of the industry. We also take into account changes in exports to examine the state of global trade. All of these changes are considered through the lens of countries rather than firms. In addition, we examine the South Korean automotive industry as a case study to elaborate on the details of recent changes and the response of automakers. We conclude the paper with a review of policy instruments recently implemented to stimulate the EV market. Thank you for reading this abstract of a report from the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! Visit us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q36v30l5CV0 Visit us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/worldkiet/ Visit our website: http://www.kiet.re.kr/en |
| Keywords: | manufacturing industry; auto manufacturing; automotive industry; auto industry; internal combustion engine; ICE; electric vehicles; EVs; batteries; EV adoption; EV policy; Hyundai; Kia; Genesis; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | L62 L98 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_001&r=int |
| By: | Cho, Eun Kyo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | Since the 2010s, the Chinese government has promoted its high-tech industries through the Strategic Emerging Industries and China Manufacturing 2025 policies, among others. It has focused on cultivating the next-generation information technology (IT), biotechnology, new energy vehicles, and new materials industries, and investment is being funneled to these sectors in an effort to secure engines of future growth. Specific measures include subsidies, R&D support, and human resource development, but the most important feature of the Chinese policy stance is the government’s use of subsidies to create drive supply and demand in the market and build an industrial ecosystem. However, the US sanctions regime targeting the Chinese technology sector threatens to derail China’s efforts to foster its high-tech industries US technology sanctions against the country. While the country has successfully formed companies and markets have through subsidies and aggressive mergers and acquisitions (M&A), Chinese tech firms are heavily dependent on the US and EU for so-called “choke point” technologies, such as semiconductors; American semiconductor export controls and investment bans have had a significant impact on China’s high-tech industries and its science and technology (S&T) policies. In this paper I examine the characteristics of China’s high-tech industry development and S&T strategies and describe changes to Chinese policy following the eruption of the US-China dispute. I specifically analyze how China has promoted industries and technologies in the past, focusing on high-tech industries such as semiconductors and batteries, and review the evolution of Chinese policy since the beginning of the US-China conflict. |
| Keywords: | US; China; US-China conflict; high-tech industry; information technology; IT; semiconductors; chips; batteries; electric vehicles; EVs; economic security; economic nationalism; choke point technology; Chinese policy; Chinese technology policy; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | F51 F52 L52 L63 L65 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_002&r=int |
| By: | Giesing, Yvonne (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Kauder, Björn (CESifo); Mergele, Lukas (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Potrafke, Niklas (University of Konstanz); Poutvaara, Panu (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | We examine how cultural norms shape attitudes toward immigration. Our causal identification relies on comparing students who moved across the East-West border after German reunification with students who moved within former East Germany. Students who moved from East to West became more positive toward immigration. Results are confirmed among students whose move was plausibly exogenous due to national study place allocation mechanisms. Evidence supports horizontal transmission as the difference between East-West movers and East-East movers increases over time and is driven by East German students who often interacted with fellow students. Effects are stronger in less xenophobic West German regions. |
| Keywords: | cultural transmission, migration, attitudes toward immigration, German division and unification, political socialization |
| JEL: | D72 D91 J15 J20 P20 P51 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16833&r=int |
| By: | Drinkwater, Stephen (University of Roehampton); Blackaby, David H. (Swansea University); Robinson, Catherine (University of Kent) |
| Abstract: | The UK's decision to leave the EU continues to have major economic, political and social implications. It is therefore unsurprising that the reasons behind Brexit have been widely discussed. However, whilst existing empirical evidence has tended to focus on specific factors, we undertake a comprehensive analysis of the leave vote using a large-scale survey dataset to identify the relative importance of key underlying factors. Specifically, we apply regression- based techniques, including decomposition analysis, to quantify the impact of different influences. Our results indicate that a complex range of factors are able to explain a high proportion of differences in the leave vote across sub-groups of the British electorate. Moreover, Brexit voting was underpinned by cultural factors, especially attitudes towards immigration, with educational differences also playing an important role. We find that other influences such as age and economic factors become less important after other influences have been taken into account. Our findings are discussed within the context of some of the economic and social consequences that have emanated from the decision to leave the EU. |
| Keywords: | EU referendum, inequality, globalisation, United Kingdom |
| JEL: | D72 F60 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16841&r=int |