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on International Trade |
| By: | Ariell Reshef; Gianluca Santoni |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of labor shares in 1995-2014 while taking into account international trade based on value added concepts. On average, the decline in labor shares (starting around 1980) accelerates in 2001-2007, after which labor shares recover somewhat. In contrast, skilled labor shares consistently increase. The acceleration in the decline in labor shares is associated with increased intensity of intermediate input exporting; this manifests in a sharp increase in the foreign component in upstreamness of industries and countries in global value chains (GVCs). China's global integration accounts for much of this. Declines in the price of investment together with capital-skill complementarity can explain both the consistent increase in skilled labor shares and the reversal of trend in overall labor shares. Compared to shares in GDP, labor shares in gross national product (GNP) are higher in countries with positive net FDI positions; the uneven spread of multinational activity contributes to greater inequality through this channel. |
| Keywords: | Labor Share;Skilled Labor Share;Global Value Chains;Offshoring;Vertical Integration |
| JEL: | E25 F14 F15 F16 F66 J00 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-16&r=all |
| By: | Julie SCHLICK; Geoffroy GUEPIE |
| Abstract: | From birth to death in the 1970s, to rebirth in the 2000s, the East African Community (EAC) had several lives. What were the economic consequences of this regional trade agreement? This paper shows that the former EAC was ine?cient in term of trade creation while on the contrary the current one has increased trade by 75%. These results are obtained with a structural gravity equation with importer-year, exporter-year e?ects and bilateral ?xed e?ects. To assess the global e?ect of the EAC, including trade diversion and general equilibrium e?ects, we then use a multi-sector and multi-country model. We ?nd that despite trade creation, the total welfare gains of the EAC is small for most countries. All members endured a depreciation of the terms of trade, trade diversion and a decrease in real wages at the exception of Kenya. |
| Keywords: | Trade integration, Gravity, RTA |
| JEL: | F1 F13 F15 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tac:wpaper:2019-2020_2&r=all |
| By: | Giorgio Barba Navaretti; Lionel Fontagné; Gianluca Orefice; Giovanni Pica; Anna Cecilia Rosso |
| Abstract: | Trade shocks in export markets may affect the employment composition and the organization of exporting firms. In particular, the imposition of new technological standards in destination markets may force exporters to adjust the firm's organization to comply and cope with the additional complexity of the new production process. This paper investigates the effects on firms' organization of shocks induced by the introduction of Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) in exporting countries. It relies on the Specific Trade Concern (STC) data released by the WTO to identify trade-restrictive TBT measures, combined with matched employer-employee data for the population of French exporters over the period 1995-2010. It also exploits information on the list of product-destinations served by each French exporter. Controlling for tariffs and for a given state of technology in the sector of the firm, it finds that exporters respond to increased complexity associated with restrictive Technical Barriers to Trade at destination by raising the share of managers at the expense of blue collars, white collars and professionals. This paper is related to the growing literature exploring how firms organize production in hierarchies to economize on their use of knowledge. It is also related to the well beaten literature on the labour market effects of trade, but from the perspective of exports rather than imports. |
| Keywords: | Skill Composition;Labor Demand;Job Polarization;Trade Barriers |
| JEL: | F13 F14 J53 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2019-14&r=all |
| By: | Jakubik, Adam; Stolzenburg, Victor |
| Abstract: | The geography of global value chains (GVCs) depends crucially on trade costs between countries hosting various stages of production. Some stages might be more sensitive to trade costs than others. In this paper, we exploit a value-added decomposition of bilateral trade flows to distinguish low value-added GVC trade typically associated with production stages such as assembly, from high value-added GVC trade associated with stages such as R&D and design. We test the hypothesis that low value-added stages will more easily reroute given changes in trade costs between importing and exporting countries than high value-added stages. The intuition for this hypothesis is that trade costs accumulate with multiple border crossings and are larger relative to the profit margins in low value-added stages. Furthermore, high value-added stages often require larger fixed cost investments which are often highly relationship-specific and knowledge-intensive, making them harder to relocate. We find strong empirical support for our hypothesis. This observation has important implications for development policies and bilateral trade policies aimed at reducing imbalances by repatriating offshored production stages. |
| Keywords: | value added trade,trade costs,organisation of production |
| JEL: | C23 L23 F13 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201911&r=all |
| By: | Matallah, Mohamed; Benmehaia, Mohamed |
| Abstract: | In this paper, a gravity model approach was employed to analyze the major factors that influence Algerian food exports to the entire trading partners (98 countries) for the period 2001-2017. In accordance with the panel data analysis with WLS regression method, more consistent results were obtained. The results indicate that there is an increased propensity for food exports. Besides, the main factors to Algerian food exports are partner countries' growth, domestic demand and the common culture and border. All these factors affect the country's exports positively. Transportation costs, proxied by distance, have negative andsignificant effect on Algerian food exports. Results allow us to reveal the countryspecific effects through a ranking and shows that neighboring countries are in the top 10 list. Nevertheless, the existence of trade agreement has a significant negative effect which reflects the fact that trade gains from the trade agreements have been minimal for Algerian food exports. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae3:296885&r=all |
| By: | Aguiar, Angel; Corong, Erwin L.; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Bekkers, Eddy; Koopman, Robert Bernard; Teh, Robert |
| Abstract: | This document provides a technical description of the WTO Global Trade Model developed by the Center for Global Trade Analysis (GTAP) and the World Trade Organization (WTO). The model can be used to generate global trade projections and to assess the medium and long run effects of a wide range of global and national trade policies. The WTO Global Trade Model is a recursive dynamic extension of the static GTAP model (Corong et al., 2017), and implements a parsimonious approach to incorporate monopolistic competition - i.e., Eithier-Krugman or Melitz-type firm heterogeneity - in the standard GTAP model following Bekkers and Francois (2018). |
| Keywords: | computable general equilibrium,recursive dynamics,baseline projections,international trade |
| JEL: | C68 F12 F17 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:wtowps:ersd201910&r=all |
| By: | Chang-Tai Hsieh; Peter J. Klenow; Ishan B. Nath |
| Abstract: | In the wake of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement, both the U.S. and Canada experienced a sustained increase in job reallocation, including firms moving into exporting. The change involved big firms as much as small firms. To mimic these patterns,we formulate a model of innovation by both domestic and foreign firms. In the model, trade liberalization quickens the pace of creative destruction, thereby speeding the flow of technology across countries. The resulting dynamic gains from trade liberalization are an order of magnitude larger than the gains in a standard static model. |
| JEL: | F11 F14 F43 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26461&r=all |
| By: | Colantone, Italo (Bocconi University); Matano, Alessia (University of Barcelona); Naticchioni, Paolo (University of Rome 3) |
| Abstract: | We study how firms and industries adjust to increasing international trade in intermediate inputs. In particular, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the effects of new imported inputs on wage dynamics, on the skill-composition of the labor force, on worker mobility, and on assortative matching between firms and workers. We employ matched employer-employee data for Italy, over 1995-2007. We complement these data with information on the arrival of new import-ed inputs at the industry level. We find new imported inputs to have a positive effect on average wage growth at the firm level. This effect is driven by two factors: (1) an increase in the white-collar/blue-collar ratio; and (2) an increase in the average wage growth of blue-collar workers, while the wage growth of white collars is not significantly affected. The individual-level analysis reveals that the increase in the average wage of blue collars is driven by the displacement of the lowest paid workers, while continuously employed individuals are not affected. We estimate the unobserved skills of workers following Abowd et al. (1999). We find evidence that new imported inputs lead to a positive selection of higher-skilled workers, and to an increase in the degree of positive assortative matching between firms and workers. |
| Keywords: | matched employer-employee data, wages, new imported inputs |
| JEL: | J01 J31 F14 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12715&r=all |
| By: | Baccini, Leonardo; Impullitti, Giammario; Malesky, Edmund J. |
| Abstract: | What do state-owned enterprises (SOEs) do? How do they respond to market incentives? Can we expect substantial efficiency gains from trade liberalization in economies with a strong presence of SOEs? Using a new dataset of Vietnamese firms we document a set of empirical regularities distinguishing SOEs from private _rms. Then we empirically study the effect of the 2007 WTO accession on selection, competition, and productivity. Our results show that WTO entry is associated with higher probability of exit, lower firm profitability, and substantial increases in productivity for private firms but not for SOEs. Our estimates suggest that the overall productivity gains would have been about 40% larger in a counterfactual Vietnamese economy without SOEs. We highlight some economic mechanisms possibly driving these findings through the lenses of a model of trade with heterogeneous private and state-owned firms. The model suggests that political/regulatory barriers to entry and access to credit are key drivers of the different response of SOEs to trade liberalization. Further empirical tests broadly validate these insights. |
| Keywords: | state-owned enterprises; state capitalism; heterogeneous firms; gains from trade; WTO; Vietnam |
| JEL: | F12 F13 F14 P31 P33 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:102602&r=all |
| By: | Stefano Costa; Federico Sallusti; Claudio Vicarelli; Davide Zurlo |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the potential mismatch between the conditions required for a manufacturing firm to become exporter and the pattern of technology adoption within the industry. The 'export threshold', which is estimated using the ROC methodology, is the minimum combination of productivity and 'economic size' (a broader measure of firm size) that firms need to achieve in order to access export markets. To consider the pattern of technology adoption we also estimate a 'technology line'. The relative positioning of the 'technology line' and the export threshold generates a new taxonomy of firms allowing for better policies for internationalization. |
| Keywords: | ROC analysis; export threshold; technology adoption; extensive margin of exports. |
| Date: | 2019–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2019/38&r=all |
| By: | Matano, Alessia (University of Barcelona); Naticchioni, Paolo (University of Rome 3); Vona, Francesco (Sciences Po, Paris) |
| Abstract: | A growing body of research has contributed to understanding the labor market and political effects of globalization. This paper explores an overlooked aspect of trade-induced adjustments in the labor market: the institutional aspect. We take advantage of the two-tier collective bargaining structure of the Italian labor market, whereby the first tier entails setting minimum wages at the contract level. Using an instrumental variable strategy and exploiting variations in contract-level exposure to trade, we find for the 1995-2003 period that, on average, the surge in imports decreased contractual minimum wages by 1.5%. This impact increases in the share of unskilled workers employed in the contract. This negative institutional effect contrasts with a nonsignificant effect of trade on total wages, with the latter becoming positive and large only for highly skilled workers. |
| Keywords: | bargained minimum wages, import competition, labor market institutions, skills |
| JEL: | J50 F16 J31 J24 |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12714&r=all |
| By: | ANDO Mitsuyo; URATA Shujiro; YAMANOUCHI Kenta |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impacts of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on bilateral trade, focusing on Japan's FTAs. We first examined the effects of Japan's FTAs, using a dataset of Japan's exports and imports, not only on all products as a whole but also on major products for a period 1995-2016. From the analysis at the aggregate level, we found that effects of Japan's FTAs are heterogeneous among the FTA partners, and that Japan enjoyed trade creation effects of FTAs on exports/imports with more than half of the FTA partners. We also investigated the dynamic effects of FTAs by the period of years from the enforcement. The results demonstrate that positive effects tend to increase gradually for some products. Moreover, we conducted the corresponding analysis for the same period, incorporating not only Japan's trade but also trade between third countries. We found that unlike the analysis only for Japan's exports or imports, the trade creation effects of FTAs disappeared for some FTA partners, while they were robust for others. These findings suggest that Japan's FTAs did not make sufficient contributions to the expansion of Japan's trade with FTA partners when we consider FTA partners' trade with other countries. In other words, even when Japan's trade with FTA partners increased, FTA partners' trade with countries other than Japan increased more. As we have emphasized in a series of our studies on FTAs, to realize the trade expansion effects of FTAs, it is crucial to facilitate the use of FTAs, for instance, by constructing user-friendly rules of origin or provide support for the use of the FTAs. |
| Date: | 2019–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:19090&r=all |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | This study, which is the first of its kind in the case of Zimbabwe; attempts to model and forecast Zimbabwe’s exports and imports using annual time series data ranging over the period 1975 – 2017. In order to analyze Zimbabwe’s export and import dynamics, the study employed the Neural Network approach, a deep-learning technique which has not been applied in this area in the case of Zimbabwe. The Hyperbolic Tangent function was selected and applied as the activation function of the neural networks applied in this study. The neural networks applied in this research were evaluated using the most common forecast evaluation statistics, i.e. the Error, MSE and MAE; and it was clearly shown that the neural networks yielded reliable forecasts of Zimbabwe’s exports and imports over the period 2018 – 2027. The main results of the study indicate that imports will continue to outperform exports over the out-of-sample period. Amongst other policy recommendations, the study encourages Zimbabwean policy makers to intensify export growth promotion policies and strategies such as clearly identifying export drivers as well as export diversification if persistant current account deficits in Zimbabwe are to be dealt with effectively. |
| Keywords: | ANNs; exports; forecast; hyperbolic tangent function; imports; trade deficits; Zimbabwe |
| JEL: | F13 P33 Q17 |
| Date: | 2019–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96906&r=all |
| By: | aidi, mohamed |
| Abstract: | In this work we study the effect of FDI on the economies of the South Mediterranean countries. Taking into account the positive effects and starting from the establishment of a simultaneous equation model applied to 8 countries, we tried to demonstrate the mechanisms through which FDI acts on economic growth. The estimation of our model shows that the level of human capital exports and to a lesser extent domestic investment, are the most prominent factors in creating positive effects. However, these results, while important, remain weakly motivating to generate positive growth or at least to reduce the negative effects of FDI. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Growth, Simultaneous Equation Model |
| JEL: | F21 O43 |
| Date: | 2019–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97306&r=all |
| By: | Reza Anglingkusumo (Bank Indonesia); Berry A. Harahap (Bank Indonesia); Fitria I. Triswati (Bank Indonesia); Pakasa Bary (Bank Indonesia); Anggita Cinditya M. Kusuma (Bank Indonesia); M. Bagus Arya (Bank Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | Penelitian ini memetakan kondisi fragmentasi internasional finance, memahami dampak proteksionisme hubungan finansial antarnegara melalui dual gravity model serta mengevaluasi risiko peningkatan fragmentasi terhadap makroekonomi melalui Global VECM, khususnya terhadap shock eksternal. Beberapa temuan antara lain adalah (i) terdapat tendensi fragmentasi setelah krisis finansial global: foreign direct investment dan portofolio investment dari negara utama lebih terkonsentrasi, serta adanya penurunan cross-border claims yang belum kembali ke tingkat semula; (ii) terdapat hubungan positif antara arus perdagangan dan arus finansial secara bilateral sehingga penurunan perdagangan akan berimplikasi pada penurunan hubungan finansial; (iii) ada proteksi perdagangan terindikasi akan menurunkan perdagangan antarnegara, dan menurunkan FDI dari negara ketiga: dan (iv) fragmentasi finansial membuat dampak spillover shock eksternal terhadap perekonomian Indonesia berubah, antara lain adalah dampak kenaikan suku bunga AS ke output Indonesia menjadi lebih besar. |
| Keywords: | financial integration, cross border banking, gravity, spillover, global VECM |
| JEL: | E60 F30 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idn:wpaper:wp32018&r=all |
| By: | Berger, Axel; Gsell, Sebastian |
| Abstract: | The implementation of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development requires enormous global investment. In developing countries alone, its realisation requires investment of $ 4 trillion a year (UNCTAD, 2014). Since the public sector in developing countries is often unable to mobilise sufficient domestic resources, the private sector is needed to help fill this gap. One of the key sources is foreign direct investment (FDI), which not only brings capital into developing countries but also advanced technologies and managerial know-how. It is critical that governments have policies in place to attract FDI, and to harness its advantages by enhancing its contribution to sustainable development. This can be done by establishing linkages between foreign and domestic firms, improving the absorptive capacity of local businesses, and strengthening governance capacities in order to improve environmental and social conditions. Since 2017, a group of emerging and developing countries has been driving discussions at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the establishment of an international investment facilitation framework (IFF), which should help to increase FDI flows. Investment facilitation covers a wide range of areas, all with a focus on encouraging investment to flow efficiently and for the greatest benefit of host countries. In the light of the 2030 Agenda, a focus on the attraction of more FDI is necessary but not sufficient; it is also important to focus on the qualitative contribution of FDI to economic growth in host countries that is socially just and environmentally friendly. Many developing countries would benefit from attracting more FDI to support their sustainable development, but they remain outside the structured discussions at the WTO. Often, they fear a loss of policy space to pursue domestic developmental strategies. Our research shows that developing countries have implemented fewer investment facilitation measures than have developed countries, and would thus face higher implementation costs in order to comply with an IFF. Furthermore, in light of the non-reciprocal nature of global investment flows, although developing countries would benefit from their own investment facilitation reforms, they would not benefit equally from those of their negotiation partners. An IFF can make four key contributions to sustainable development: it can help attract and retain FDI, enhance the quality of FDI in light of national strategies, build domestic institutions, and enhance international cooperation. In order to realise this potential, we make six recommendations: 1. Bridge the implementation gap by providing capacity building. 2. Strengthen developing countries' negotiation capacities. 3. Respect the policy space of developing countries. 4. Focus special and differential treatment on longer implementation periods. 5. Include a commitment by home countries to support their investors' responsible-business conduct. 6. Establish international cooperation mechanisms and increase inclusivity by supporting multi-stakeholder processes. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diebps:152019&r=all |
| By: | Yukio Fukumoto (Department of Economics,Osaka University of Economics); Tomoko Kinugasa (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | Trade openness and the share of the working-age population vary in different geographic regions of the world, especially, they tend to be high in Europe. Under the hypothesis that the share of the working-age population has a positive effect on trade openness, we clarify the difference of trade openness by region caused by age structure using the panel data for the following four regions in the world: Europe, Asia, America, and Africa. We estimate equations including trade openness as the dependent variable and the share of the working-age population as one of the independent variables based on fixed-effects models and conduct the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition by region. Our empirical results show that the share of the working-age population has significantly positive effects on trade openness in three regions except Africa. Moreover, high trade openness in Europe compared with Asia or America can be explained by endowment effect of age structure and that compared with Africa can be explained by both endowment and coefficient effects of age structure. Therefore, trade openness is greatly influenced by age structure in Europe, but hardly in Africa. |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koe:wpaper:1912&r=all |
| By: | Long, Ngo Van; Miao, Zhuang |
| Abstract: | We model an oligopoly where firms are allowed to freely enter and exit the market and choose the quality level of their products by incurring different set-up costs. Using this framework, we study the mix of firms in the long-run Cournot-Nash equilibrium under different cost structures and the effects of market size on market outcomes. Specifically, we consider two alternative specifications of cost structure. In the first specification, quality upgrading requires a large increment in the set-up cost or R&D investment. Under this cost structure, we show that in the Nash equilibrium, each firm specializes in a single quality level, and an increase in the market size leads to (i) an increase in the fraction of firms that specialize in the high quality product, (ii) an increase in the market share of the high quality product, and (iii) a reduction in firms'markups and in markup dispersion. Under the second type of cost structure where quality upgrading only requires higher marginal cost, we find that all firms will produce both types of product, and the value share of the high-quality product increases as the market expands, but in quantity terms, the market share of the high quality product does not change. Finally, we find that trade liberalization has broadly similar effects to that of a market expansion, but the supply of the high-quality product from the smaller economy may decrease. |
| Keywords: | Multiproduct firms, Cournot competition, Vertical product differentiation, Cost structure, Market size, Trade liberalization |
| JEL: | L1 L2 F15 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-91&r=all |
| By: | Ahmed, Osama; Sallam, Walid |
| Abstract: | This article aims to examine the long and short run relationship between agricultural exports and agriculture's share of GDP. Links between series considered are assessed by co-integration analysis by using Johansen co-integration technique and ECM- GARCH. Results indicate a positive link in the short and long term between agricultural exports and agriculture's share of GDP, as well as the cointegration between the pairs of series used also can be found; increases in agricultural exports have followed by increases in agriculture's share of GDP, Agriculture exports and agriculture’s share of GDP elasticities are being 0.62. Evidence of that past shocks and agricultural exports contribute to increase agriculture's share of GDP volatility is also found. To implement some of the policies that could be used to increase the export of agricultural products, it is relevant that the problems faced by farmers to export their products should be solved. The most important of these problems was the lack of commitment exporters’ of the forward contracts; thus such these contracts need to be controlled by the government and the application of fines for breach of the contracts. |
| Keywords: | International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icfae2:296701&r=all |
| By: | BEINE Michel; MACHADO Joël; RUYSSEN Ilse |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses how countries' provision of migrant rights a ects potential migrants' destination choice. Combining data on bilateral migration desires from over 140 origin countries and data on migrant rights in 38 destination countries over the period 2007-2014, we nd that potential migrants tend to favor destinations that are more open to the inclusion of immigrants into their society. In particular, better access to and conditions on the labour market, as well as access to nationality and to permanent residency signi cantly increase the perceived attractiveness of a destination country. These results are robust across di erent speci cations and hold for subsamples of origin countries as well as of destinations. Moreover, some results vary across types of respondents. Educational opportunities for migrants, for instance, a ect the migration desires of individuals aged 15 to 24 years, but less so of individuals in other age groups. |
| Keywords: | Migration desires; Migrants' destination choice; Migrant rights; Quality of institutions; naturalization rights |
| JEL: | F22 O15 O57 P16 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2019-15&r=all |
| By: | Josef Bajzik (Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Tomas Havranek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic); Zuzana Irsova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic); Jiri Schwarz (Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | A key parameter in international economics is the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods, also called the Armington elasticity. Yet estimates vary widely. We collect 3,524 reported estimates of the elasticity, construct 34 variables that reflect the context in which researchers obtain their estimates, and examine what drives the heterogeneity in the results. To account for inherent model uncertainty, we employ Bayesian and frequentist model averaging. We present the first application of newly developed non-linear techniques to correct for publication bias. Our main results are threefold. First, there is publication bias against small and statistically insignificant elasticities. Second, differences in results are best explained by differences in data: aggregation, frequency, size, and dimension. Third, the mean elasticity implied by the literature after correcting for both publication bias and potential misspecifications is 3. |
| Keywords: | Armington, trade elasticity, meta-analysis, publication bias, Bayesian model averaging |
| JEL: | C83 D12 F14 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2019_19&r=all |
| By: | Dany Bahar; Hillel Rapoport; Riccardo Turati |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the relationship between a country’s economic complexity and the diversity in the birthplaces of its immigrants. Our cross-country analysis suggests that birthplace diversity is strongly and positively associated with economic complexity. This holds particularly for diversity among highly educated migrants and for countries at intermediate levels of economic complexity. The results are robust to accounting for previous trends in birthplace diversity as well as to using alternatives diversity measures. We address endogeneity concerns by instrumenting diversity through predicted stocks from a pseudo-gravity model as well as from a standard shift-share approach. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that birthplace diversity boosts economic complexity by increasing the diversification of the host country’s export basket. |
| Keywords: | economic complexity, birthplace diversity, immigration, growth |
| JEL: | F22 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7950&r=all |
| By: | Abugamea, Gaber |
| Abstract: | The economies, trade and employment in the Palestinian territories (PTs) in the Gaza Strip and West Bank have undergone numerous shocks and instabilities over the past four decades. Palestinian External trade experienced numerous difficulties and in particular Israel imposing for restriction on Palestinian trade with the neighboring countries and the rest of the world as a whole. Meanwhile, employment rates in PTs decreased sharply by Israeli restrictions which imposed on Palestinian labor movement into Israel since 1994 and intensified with the Palestinian uprising in 2000 year., This study uses the cointegration and Granger causality tests to examine both the long run and short run relationships among trade, employment and economic growth of Palestine for the time period 1968-2017 . The econometrics results based on vector error correction models (VECM) confirm the existence of long run relation between trade, employment and economic growth and show that both employment and GDP are main determinants of trade but not trade and GDP determinants of employment or trade and employment determinants of GDP. Causality tests confirm VECM results that changes on economic growth in the long run cause change in trade in the short run. By reconciling causality results with that of VECM, we conclude an existence of marginal causality runs from GDP to employment and from trade to employment. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Employment, Economic growth, Cointegration, Granger causality tests, Palestine |
| JEL: | E24 F14 O47 |
| Date: | 2019–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97100&r=all |
| By: | Milner-Gulland, E.J.; Cugniere, Laure; Hinsley, Amy; Phelps, Jacob; Rolfe, Michael 't Sas; Veríssimo, Diogo |
| Abstract: | Tools and expertise to improve the evidence base for national and international Illegal Wildlife Trade policy already exist but are underutilised. Tapping into these resources would produce substantive benefits for wildlife conservation and associated sectors, enabling governments to better meet their obligations under the Sustainable Development Goals and international biodiversity conventions. This can be achieved through enhanced funding support for inter-sectoral research collaborations, engaging researchers in priority setting and programme design, increasing developing country research capacity and engaging researchers and community voices in policy processes. This briefing, addressed to policy makers and practitioners, is part of the 2018 Evidence to Action: Research to Address Illegal Wildlife Trade event programme, organised by five of the UK’s most active IWT research institutions, to support the London 2018 IWT Conference. |
| Date: | 2018–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:35ndz&r=all |
| By: | Fernihough, Alan; Ó Gráda, Cormac |
| Abstract: | Are return migrants 'losers' who fail to adapt to the challenges of the host economy, and thereby exacerbate the brain drain linked to emigration? Or are they 'winners' whose return enhances the human and physical capital of the home country? These questions are the subject of a burgeoning literature. This paper analyze a new database culled from the 1911 Irish population census to address these issues for returnees to Ireland from North America more than a century ago. The evidence suggests that those who returned had the edge over the population as a whole in terms of human capital, if not also over those who remained abroad. |
| Keywords: | migration,brain gain,economic history,Ireland |
| JEL: | N N33 J61 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:qucehw:201908&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study assesses the role of globalization-fuelled regionalization policies on financial allocation efficiency in four economic and monetary regions in Africa for the period 1980 to 2008. Banking system and financial system efficiency proxies are used as dependent variables whereas seven bundled and unbundled globalization variables are employed as independent indicators. The bundling exercise is achieved by means of principal component analysis while the empirical evidence is based on interactive Fixed Effects regressions. The following findings are established. First, financial allocation efficiency is more sensitive to financial openness compared to trade openness and most sensitive to globalization. The relationship between allocation efficiency and globalization-fuelled regionalization policies is: (i) Kuznets or inverted U-shape in the UEMOA and CEMAC zones (evidence of decreasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization) and (ii) U-shape overwhelmingly in the COMESA and scantily in the EAC (increasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization). Established shapes are relevant to specific globalization dynamics within regions. Economic and monetary regions are more prone to surplus liquidity than purely economic regions. Policy implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Financial Development; Regional Integration; Panel; Africa |
| JEL: | A10 D60 E40 O10 P50 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:19/085&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Joseph Nnanna (The Development Bank of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria); Vanessa S. Tchamyou (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | The study assesses the role of globalization-fuelled regionalization policies on financial allocation efficiency in four economic and monetary regions in Africa for the period 1980 to 2008. Banking system and financial system efficiency proxies are used as dependent variables whereas seven bundled and unbundled globalization variables are employed as independent indicators. The bundling exercise is achieved by means of principal component analysis while the empirical evidence is based on interactive Fixed Effects regressions. The following findings are established. First, financial allocation efficiency is more sensitive to financial openness compared to trade openness and most sensitive to globalization. The relationship between allocation efficiency and globalization-fuelled regionalization policies is: (i) Kuznets or inverted U-shape in the UEMOA and CEMAC zones (evidence of decreasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization) and (ii) U-shape overwhelmingly in the COMESA and scantily in the EAC (increasing returns to allocation efficiency from globalization-fuelled regionalization). Established shapes are relevant to specific globalization dynamics within regions. Economic and monetary regions are more prone to surplus liquidity than purely economic regions. Policy implications and measures of fighting surplus liquidity are discussed. |
| Keywords: | Globalization; Financial Development; Regional Integration; Panel; Africa |
| JEL: | A10 D60 E40 O10 P50 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:exs:wpaper:19/085&r=all |