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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Stephen P. Holland; Matthew Kotchen; Erin T. Mansur; Andrew J. Yates |
| Abstract: | The phasedown of coal for electricity generation is considered vital to meeting global climate targets. Many countries have pledged to stop using coal, with some as early as 2030. While the United States has no target currently in place, several states do. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of phasing down U.S. coal-generated electricity given the existing fleet of power plants. In particular, we take consumption as given and evaluate how prioritizing natural gas generation over that of coal would change emissions and operating costs. To do this, we develop a replacement algorithm based on transmission regions and marginal cost comparisons. Using our preferred scenarios, we find that between 66 and 94 percent of coal generation could be replaced immediately, reducing electricity sector carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions between 18 and 29 percent – equivalent to between 5 and 8 percent of total U.S. energy related emissions. The cost range is between $49 and $92 per ton of CO₂, where benefit-cost ratios are favorable in some scenarios considering local pollutant co-benefits alone. Despite the command-and-control nature of prioritizing natural gas generation, we find it relatively cost effective even in comparison to a Pigouvian tax. We examine sensitivity of the results to transmission regions, replacement cost conditions, natural gas pipeline capacity, and alternative fuel prices. |
| JEL: | Q40 Q48 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32235&r=ene |
| By: | Mariana Carmelia Balanica-Dragomir; Gabriel Murariu; Lucian Puiu Georgescu |
| Abstract: | Carbon emissions have become a specific alarming indicators and intricate challenges that lead an extended argue about climate change. The growing trend in the utilization of fossil fuels for the economic progress and simultaneously reducing the carbon quantity has turn into a substantial and global challenge. The aim of this paper is to examine the driving factors of CO$_2$ emissions from energy sector in Romania during the period 2008-2022 emissions using the log mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and takes into account five items: CO$_2$ emissions, primary energy resources, energy consumption, gross domestic product and population, the driving forces of CO$_2$ emissions, based on which it was calculated the contribution of carbon intensity, energy mixes, generating efficiency, economy, and population. The results indicate that generating efficiency effect -90968.57 is the largest inhibiting index while economic effect is the largest positive index 69084.04 having the role of increasing CO$_2$ emissions. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.04354&r=ene |
| By: | Fredj Jawadi (LUMEN - Lille University Management Lab - ULR 4999 - Université de Lille); Philippe Rozin; David Bourghelle |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the dynamics of CO2 emissions over the last decade for a large group of 25 European countries, an issue that is at the center of the ecological transition project involving various commitments (COP21, COP26, G20 meetings, etc.). To this end, our model measures the repercussions of energy price shocks (oil, gas, coal) for carbon emissions, as well as changes in industrial production and sustainable development in the context of the coronavirus pandemic. Using annual data for 23 EU countries, together with Russia and the UK, our findings show that CO2 emissions reacted significantly to oil and coal price shocks and vary with industrial production cycles. We quantified this reaction while computing the related elasticities. Further, while a significant reduction in CO2 emissions was observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, the stepping up of investment in sustainable development and renewable energy consumption also had a negative impact on CO2 emissions. This suggests that the key driver to reducing the risk of climate change and lowering high carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions involves significant commitment to sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions COVID-19 Fossil energy Renewable energy Panel data |
| Date: | 2022–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04412667&r=ene |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The presentation details the progress and commitments of Vietnam's Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), which began negotiations at COP26 and culminated in a Political Declaration in Brussels on December 14, 2022. The JETP involves a mobilization of $15.5 billion, split equally between public and private funding, to align Vietnam's power sector with its net-zero pledge. Under the JETP, Vietnam aims to peak its power sector CO2 emissions at 170 Mt in 2030, restrict coal power capacity to 30.2 GW by 2030, and ensure that renewable sources account for at least 47% of electricity production by the same year. Notable achievements include exceeding the renewable energy target by 2022 and drafting the Power Development Plan 8 to restart the renewable energy sector. The slides conclude with an emphasis on strong cooperation momentum and the effectiveness of a known recipe for power sector investment that includes direct purchase agreements, auctions, grid code, tariffs, and support through training and technology transfer. |
| Date: | 2023–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04485660&r=ene |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel |
| Abstract: | Jahre nach Einführung der sogenannten CO2-Bepreisung fossiler Brenn- und Kraftstoffe zum Zwecke des Klimaschutzes hat die Politik das Versprechen zur Rückverteilung der CO2-Preiseinnahmen noch immer nicht umgesetzt. Vor diesem Hintergrund untersucht dieser Beitrag die sozialen Auswirkungen der CO2-Bepreisung, vor allem die Verteilungswirkungen für einkommensschwache private Haushalte, und unterbreitet einen pragmatischen Vorschlag zur Rückverteilung der Einnahmen. Dieser besteht aus einer Kombination von Maßnahmen zur jederzeit möglichen sukzessiven Senkung des Strompreises: zum einen der Senkung von Strompreiskomponenten wie der Stromsteuer und vor allem der Netzentgelte, mit denen der für die Energiewende unabdingbare Netzausbau finanziert wird, sowie zum anderen in der kompletten Abschaffung der zahlreichen Umlagen auf den Strompreis. Mit der bei Umsetzung dieser Vorschläge möglichen massiven Senkung des Strompreises um mehr als 10 Cents je Kilowattstunde könnten die Wärmeund Verkehrswende in doppelter Weise vorangetrieben werden: Einerseits durch die CO2-Bepreisung fossiler Brenn- und Kraftstoffe als treibendem Faktor und andererseits durch die massive Vergünstigung von Strom als Anreiz. In Zeiten massiver finanzieller Engpässe beim Klima- und Transformationsfonds wäre es klug, die äußerst knappen Mittel möglichst so zu verwenden, dass damit zugleich die Energiewende vorangebracht und die Bürgerinnen und Bürger sowie die Unternehmen entlastet werden. Das würde durch die Verwendung der Fonds-Mittel zur Senkung der Netzentgelte und der zahlreichen Umlagen auf den Strompreis der Fall sein, nicht aber bei Auszahlung eines Klimageldes. Daher sollte die Politik auf die Einführung eines Klimageldes zugunsten von Strompreissenkungen verzichten. |
| Abstract: | Years after the introduction of the so-called CO2 pricing of fossil fuels for the purpose of climate protection, politicians have still not implemented the promise to redistribute the CO2 price revenues. Against this background, this article examines the social impact of carbon pricing, in particular the distributional effects for low-income private households, and presents a pragmatic proposal for the redistribution of revenues. This consists of a combination of measures to successively reduce the electricity price at any time: on the one hand, the reduction of electricity price components such as the electricity tax and, above all, the grid fees, which are used to finance the grid expansion that is essential for the energy transition, and on the other hand, the complete abolition of the numerous levies on the electricity price. The massive reduction in the price of electricity by more than 10 cents per kilowatt hour that would be possible if these proposals were implemented could drive forward the heat and transport transition in two ways: On the one hand through CO2 pricing of fossil fuels as a driving factor and on the other hand through the massive reduction in the price of electricity as an incentive. In times of massive financial bottlenecks in the Climate and Transformation Fund, it would be prudent to use the extremely scarce resources in such a way as to simultaneously advance the energy transition and relieve the burden on citizens and companies. This would be the case if the funds were used to reduce grid charges and the numerous levies on the electricity price, but not if a climate money were paid out. Politicians should therefore refrain from introducing a climate money in favor of lowering electricity prices. |
| Keywords: | Wärmewende, Verkehrswende, Netzentgelte |
| JEL: | D12 Q31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:287745&r=ene |
| By: | Marinkovic, Catalina; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien |
| Abstract: | At least ten Latin American and Caribbean countries have pledged to achieve carbon neutrality. Has electricity planning in the region evolved towards reaching these goals? We compare power generation capacity in 2023 to announced plans in 2019. We then estimate committed emissions from existing and planned power plants that is emissions that would result from the normal operations of these plants during their typical lifetime and compare them to emissions from power generation in published IPCC scenarios. We find that fossil fuel planned capacity has decreased by 47% since 2019, mainly due to the cancellation of 50% of coal and 40% of gas projects, compared to an increase of 24% of renewable energy projects. But existing plants in the region will emit 6.7 GtCO2 during their lifespan, and if all planned plants are built, they will add 4.9 GtCO2, totaling 11.6 GtCO2, exceeding median carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2C - consistent IPCC pathways (2.3 and 4.3 GtCO2). Natural gas power plants are the largest contributor to existing (62%) and planned (75%) emissions (versus 24% and 23% for coal). We evaluate emissions reduction strategies to achieve carbon budgets. Assuming no new coal plants come into operation, announced gas and oil projects are canceled at the same rate as in the past four years, all fossil fueled plant lifetimes are reduced by 10 years, and all new natural gas displaces existing coal, committed emissions fall by 67%, meeting the 2C budget, but still twice as large as the median 1.5C budget. Our results suggest that while progress is being made, energy planning in the region is not yet consistent with global climate goals as reflected by the IPCC scenario database. |
| Keywords: | stranded assets;carbon budget;electricity generation;climate policy;Paris Agreement; Solar power; Wind power |
| JEL: | Q1 Q4 Q54 Q5 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13143&r=ene |
| By: | Paolo Angelini (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Financial intermediaries are integrating climate in their portfolio management and lending strategies. A shared objective is to properly manage the related risks. Many are also driven by the desire to do their part to help the transition towards a low-carbon economy. In their efforts to pursue these two objectives, many intermediaries have been pledging to reduce the carbon emissions financed by the assets side of their balance sheets, and to achieve net zero financed emissions by 2050, possibly meeting intermediate quantitative targets. Divesting from carbon-intensive firms and investing in low-carbon ones should reduce transition risk (the first objective), and should make access to finance more difficult for high emitters, pushing them to curtail investment in polluting technologies (the second objective). This paper argues that this strategy, apparently simple and sensible, hides numerous complexities whose implications have not yet been fully fleshed out, and that some of its consequences might be undesired. In a nutshell, in spite of substantial progress in recent years, more research is necessary to shed light on how the financial sector can effectively pursue the above objectives. |
| Keywords: | financial intermediaries, green transition, climate change, decarbonization |
| JEL: | G20 G32 Q01 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_840_24&r=ene |
| By: | Bruno Fontaine (SMASH - Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antoine Teixeira (ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Julien Lefevre (AgroParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paris Saclay (COmUE)); Fanny Vicard (ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie) |
| Abstract: | Net-zero emissions scenarios (NZE) generally do not focus on imported green-house gases emissions. On an other side, input-ouput environmental assessments of decarbonization scenarios often miss the macroeconomic consequences of the energy transition. In this study, we built and evaluated the material and environmental footprints of detailed and coherent NZE scenarios for France, describing a various range of mitigation actions and transition ideologies, through a bottom-up coupling with hybrid input-output analysis (HIO). We discuss the relative effectiveness of these actions, classified into sufficiency, efficiency and substitution categories. This highlights the efficiency of sufficiency actions to reduce both material and carbon footprints. |
| Keywords: | Sufficiency, efficiency, Green growth, net-zero emissions, Carbon footprint, Input-output |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04483018&r=ene |
| By: | Newbery, D.; Biggar, D. |
| Abstract: | As Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) penetration increases in poorly networked areas with suitable VRE resources, transmission constraints will increasingly force VRE curtailment. Under most European market access and pricing arrangements, location and operation decisions are based on average curtailment rates. As the marginal contribution of the last MW of VRE is 3+ times average curtailment, there is a risk of inefficient location and operation. This article compares different pricing and access regimes (including nodal pricing that gives efficient transmission scarcity signals) to compare their impact on the incentives for VRE merchant or market driven entry. |
| Keywords: | Transmission constraints, access regimes, variable renewable electricity, marginal curtailment, nodal pricing |
| JEL: | H23 L94 Q28 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2405&r=ene |
| By: | Maximilian Stargardt (Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis; RWTH Aachen University, Chair of Fuel Cells, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Aachen, Germany); David Kress (Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis); Heidi Heinrichs (Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis); J\"orn-Christian Meyer (RWTH Aachen University, Chair of Operations Management, Schoolf of Business and Economics, Aachen, Germany); Jochen Lin{\ss}en (Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis); Grit Walther (RWTH Aachen University, Chair of Operations Management, Schoolf of Business and Economics, Aachen, Germany); Detlef Stolten (Forschungszentrum J\"ulich GmbH, Institute of Energy and Climate Research - Techno-economic Systems Analysis; RWTH Aachen University, Chair of Fuel Cells, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Aachen, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Decarbonizing the global energy system requires significant expansions of renewable energy technologies. Given that cost-effective renewable sources are not necessarily situated in proximity to the largest energy demand centers globally, the maritime transportation of low-carbon energy carriers, such as renewable-based hydrogen or ammonia, will be needed. However, whether existent shipyards possess the required capacity to provide the necessary global fleet has not yet been answered. Therefore, this study estimates global tanker demand based on projections for global hydrogen demand, while comparing these projections with historic shipyard production. Our findings reveal a potential bottleneck until 2033-2039 if relying on liquefied hydrogen exclusively. This bottleneck could be circumvented by increasing local hydrogen production, utilizing pipelines, or liquefied ammonia as an energy carrier for hydrogen. Furthermore, the regional concentration of shipyard locations raises concerns about diversification. Increasing demand for container vessels could substantially hinder the scale-up of maritime hydrogen transport. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.09272&r=ene |
| By: | Lackner, Teresa; Fierro, Luca Eduardo; Mellacher, Patrick |
| Abstract: | The paper introduces an integrated approach, blending Opinion Dynamics with a Macroeconomic Agent-Based Model (OD-MABM). It aims to explore the co-evolution of climate change mitigation policy and public support. The OD-MABM links a novel opinion dynamics model that is calibrated for European countries using panel survey data to the Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes model (DSK). Opinion dynamics regarding stringent climate policy arise from complex interactions among social, political, economic and climate systems where a household's opinion is affected by individual economic conditions, perception of climate change, industry-led (mis-)information and social influence. We examine 133 policy pathways in the EU, integrating various carbon tax schemes and revenue recycling mechanisms. Our findings reveal that while effective carbon tax policies initially lead to a decline in public support due to substantial macroeconomic transition costs, they concurrently drive a positive social tipping point in the future. This shift stems from the evolving economic and political influence associated with the fossil fuel-based industry, gradually diminishing as the transition unfolds. Second, hybrid revenue recycling strategies that combine green subsidies with climate dividends successfully address this intertemporal tradeoff, broadening public support right from the introduction of the carbon tax. |
| Date: | 2024–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:rdfze&r=ene |
| By: | Augustin Danneaux (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LISIS - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Université Gustave Eiffel); Thomas Le Gallic (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SMASH - Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines); Julien Lefèvre (AgroParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The rapid phase-out of fossil fuels required to meet the ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement raises concerns about sectoral decline and socioeconomic impacts. This study addresses the need to refine the assessment of employment impacts associated in transition scenarios. We investigate two climate change mitigation scenarios and a baseline using an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) and augment the overall analysis by incorporating a data science approach. We thus developped an enhanced coal nexus within the Imaclim-R framework and a sub-national economies dynamics module. The latter enables the results to be scaled down and provide qualitatively new information. The analysis quantifies job losses and their timing, highlighting regional disparities and vulnerability. The findings underscore the importance of integrating support policies for affected employees into carbon neutrality programs. Anticipation and rapid implementation of such policies are crucial. Understanding transition risks and developing appropriate support policies can enhance the feasibility and acceptance of transition pathways. |
| Date: | 2023–10–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04477711&r=ene |
| By: | Caroline Fyfe (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Phoebe Taptiklis (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Dominic White (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Niven Winchester (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this report is to review greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change mitigation data and models. Building an evidence base to monitor and assess the impacts of initiatives is explicitly mentioned in Aotearoa New Zealand’s First Emissions Reduction Plan (05/2022). Economic-Environmental modelling plays an important role in decision making to achieve emission reduction targets. Data is hosted by a range of organisations and collected using different frameworks and methodologies. There is less awareness of data available through Stats NZ which may have led to it being underused. Main collated data sources are the GHG emissions account and the GHG emissions inventory. Sector specific data are available through relevant agencies. A detailed stock-take of New Zealand’s modelling capacity identified 84 climate change or climate change mitigation models: 13 multi-sector models, 23 land use and agricultural models, 25 energy models, and 23 transport models. The stock-take identified at least one model for each sector of the ERP, except for Building and Construction. Modelling capacity varies between sectors with those that are more developed, demonstrating greater interdependency between models. Almost all modelling takes a production-based approach. Capacity for a consumption-based approach was much more limited. Two examples of formal collaboration are identified through the review. No formal international collaboration (outside of international reporting requirements) was identified. A preference was expressed for modelling in-house to facilitate alignment with policy development. However, this may have contributed to lack of collaboration on progress towards common targets. Connections with groups outside of government are also limited. |
| Keywords: | Greenhouse gas emissions, Emissions abatement, Climate change modelling, Data management, Policy analysis |
| JEL: | C31 D58 Q4 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:23_06&r=ene |
| By: | Majah-Leah Ravago (Department of Economics, Ateneo de Manila University); Michael R. M. Abrigo (Philippine Institute of Development Studies); Patrizia Benedicto (ACERD); Nastasha Brigitte Kuan (ACERD); J. Kathleen Magadia (ACERD); Charlotte Marjorie Relos (ACERD); James Roumasset (University of Hawaii) |
| Abstract: | How do congestion and disruptions in transmission impact electricity prices? We investigate the impact of congestion on the wholesale spot market prices and the impact of disruption on residential electricity prices. We utilize time-series transmission node-level data on congestion market prices and combine it with other information on the market network data from the independent electricity market operator for our congestion analysis. Treating congestion as an aberration in the system, we apply impulse response analysis to examine the dynamic and cumulative impact of congestion on wholesale electricity spot prices. To examine the impact of disruption on prices, we use distribution unit data submitted to the industry regulator of the Philippines. We exploit an incident in the Visayas that cuts transmission capacity in half causing a disruption in the system as a natural experiment. We employ a synthetic difference-in-differences methodology and examine the effect of this disruption on consumer electricity prices and market concentration. We find that congestions greatly impact market nodal prices, and the effect persists beyond the time of congestion. The impact of the disruption varies by region at the distribution level, possibly explained by the region’s resources and endowment. |
| Keywords: | Congestion, transmission, electricity prices, Philippines, impulse response function, difference-in-difference |
| JEL: | C99 C13 L14 L94 Q40 Q41 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agy:dpaper:202401&r=ene |
| By: | Akin A. Cilekoglu (AQR-IREA Research Group, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine how allowances allocation affected emissions of power sector installations in the EU ETS following the Paris Agreements. The dataset I use covers the 2010-2022 period, includes the emissions and allowances of 4, 498 installations operating in power sector across the 27 Member States of the European Union. I discover that installations receiving lower allowances in the first quartile (Q1) reduced their emissions by 3.5% from 2016 to 2022 compared to the 2010-2015 period. I find no evidence on the installations in second, third and fourth quartiles due to the country specific developments. I also show that country characteristics have a crucial role in policy effectiveness because the emissions of installations located in lower-income Member States entered into the EU at later stages did not fall. |
| Keywords: | Emissions, Paris Agreement, Power sector, Climate change. JEL classification: Q40, Q48, O13, H32, L25. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:202404&r=ene |
| By: | Roozbeh Qorbanian; Nils L\"ohndorf; David Wozabal |
| Abstract: | Corporate renewable power purchase agreements (PPAs) are long-term contracts that enable companies to source renewable energy without having to develop and operate their own capacities. Typically, producers and consumers agree on a fixed per-unit price at which power is purchased. The value of the PPA to the buyer depends on the so called capture price defined as the difference between this fixed price and the market value of the produced volume during the duration of the contract. To model the capture price, practitioners often use either fundamental or statistical approaches to model future market prices, which both have their inherent limitations. We propose a new approach that blends the logic of fundamental electricity market models with statistical learning techniques. In particular, we use regularized inverse optimization in a quadratic fundamental bottom-up model of the power market to estimate the marginal costs of different technologies as a parametric function of exogenous factors. We compare the out-of-sample performance in forecasting the capture price using market data from three European countries and demonstrate that our approach outperforms established statistical learning benchmarks. We then discuss the case of a photovoltaic plant in Spain to illustrate how to use the model to value a PPA from the buyer's perspective. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.08846&r=ene |
| By: | Salem, Leila Ben (University of Sousse); Zayati, Montassar (University of Sousse); Nouira, Ridha (University of Sousse); Rault, Christophe (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the co-movements of oil prices and the exchange rates of 10 top oil-importing and oil-exporting countries. Firstly, we estimated the total static spillover index based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models. Secondly, we adopted the recent DCC-GARCH-CONNECTEDNESS approach proposed by Gabauer (2020) to conduct a time-varying analysis that investigates the directionally dynamic connectedness among WTI and Shanghai crude oil futures and currency markets. We explored contagion spillover volatility by focusing on a sample of major oil-exporting and oil-importing countries using daily data from 4 March 2018 to 25 August 2023. We analysed this relationship during four phases: the entire sample; before COVID-19; during COVID-19; and during the Russian–Ukrainian war. Our results confirm the persistence of volatility for the series studied, thereby justifying the use of the dynamic connectedness approach. Our findings also reveal strong evidence of volatility transmission between oil prices and exchange-rate markets. However, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian–Ukrainian war have altered this link. The connectedness between the two markets (petrol and exchange) was stronger at the beginning of the crisis period and then gradually depreciated in value over time. Our findings reveal that exchange rates for both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries are more sensitive to oil price shocks during crises than in normal periods. This suggests that volatility contagion between these two markets continues to exist, thus emphasising the role of oil price shocks as net transmitters across the network during extreme scenarios. |
| Keywords: | DCC-GARCH-Connectedness, exchange rates, WTI, Shanghai futures, COVID-19, Russian–Ukrainian war |
| JEL: | C5 Q4 Q43 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16832&r=ene |
| By: | Johannes Kn\"orr; Martin Bichler; Teodora Dobos |
| Abstract: | The European electricity market is based on large pricing zones with a uniform day-ahead price. The energy transition leads to shifts in supply and demand and increasing redispatch costs. In an attempt to ensure efficient market clearing and congestion management, the EU Commission has mandated the Bidding Zone Review (BZR) to reevaluate the configuration of European bidding zones. Based on a unique data set published in the context of the BZR, we compare various pricing rules for the German power market. We compare market clearing and pricing for national, zonal, and nodal models, including their generation costs and associated redispatch costs. Moreover, we investigate different non-uniform pricing rules and their economic implications for the German electricity market. Our results indicate that the differences in the average prices in different zones are small. The total costs across different configurations are similar and the reduction of standard deviations in prices is also small based on this data set. A nodal pricing rule leads to the lowest total costs. We also analyze the quality of different pricing rules and their differences with respect to the quality of the price signals and the necessary uplift payments. While the study focuses on Germany, the analysis is relevant beyond and feeds into the broader discussion about pricing rules. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.09265&r=ene |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | How to finance the development of the Vietnam power system in the coming years? For the new solar and wind projects, market mechanisms such as auctions, direct power purchase agreements and self consumption will attract private investors. Options to finance thermal power projects are not so clear-cut, now that high fossil fuels prices question their profitability. Can State owned enterprises self finance without increasing the energy prices to the average citizen? |
| Abstract: | Làm thế nào để chi trả cho sự phát triển của hệ thống điện Việt Nam trong những năm tới? Đối với những dự án điện mặt trời và gió, các công cụ thị trường như đấu giá, thỏa thuận mua bán điện trực tiếp và tự tiêu thụ sẽ thu hút các nhà đầu tư tư nhân. Nhưng những phương án tài chính cho các dự án nhiệt điện lại không rõ ràng như vậy, vì hiện giá năng lượng hóa thạch đang đặt ra câu hỏi về khả năng sinh lợi của các dự án này. Liệu các doanh nghiệp quốc doanh có thể tự chủ tài chính mà không cần tăng giá điện? |
| Keywords: | Energy transition Policy Finance LNG Markets, Energy transition, Policy, Finance, LNG, Markets |
| Date: | 2022–07–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04485748&r=ene |
| By: | Florian Bourgey (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Bloomberg L.P. Quantitative Finance Research - Bloomberg L.P.); Emmanuel Gobet (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ying Jiao (ISFA - Institut de Science Financière et d'Assurances) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of transition risk on a firm's low-carbon production. As the world is facing global climate changes, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has set the idealized carbon-neutral scenario around 2050. In the meantime, many carbon reduction scenarios, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been proposed in the literature for different production sectors in more comprehensive socioeconomic context. In this paper, we consider, on the one hand, a firm that aims to optimize its emission level under the double objectives of maximizing its production profit and respecting the emission mitigation scenarios. Solving the penalized optimization problem provides the optimal emission according to a given SSP benchmark. On the other hand, such transitions affect the firm's credit risk. We model the default time by using the structural default approach. We are particularly concerned with how the adopted strategies by following different SSPs scenarios may influence the firm's default probability. |
| Keywords: | Climate risk, transition risk, credit risk, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, carbon emission reduction, optimal production profit |
| Date: | 2022–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03458299&r=ene |
| By: | Guilherme MAGACHO; Antoine GODIN; Sakir Devrim Yilmaz; Danilo Spinola |
| Abstract: | Inclusion of developing and emerging countries in the low carbon transition agenda is imperative to meet climate goals, and policies should be tailored to their unique characteristics. Despite their significance, the structural specifics of these countries are frequently overlooked in low-carbon transition models. In an effort to establish an appropriate framework for such analyses, this article formulates a Structural Stock Flow Consistent (Structural SFC) model designed for open developing economies. This model categorizes production into three sectors: resource based exports, non-tradable goods and services, and other tradable sectors. While SFC models play a crucial role in emphasizing financial constraints, they frequently lack a multi-sectoral viewpoint and disregard structural specificities. Our model makes a dual contribution: (1) it offers a flexible framework capable of accommodating diverse country characteristics while balancing short-term demand with long term structural strategies, and (2) it underscores the inadequacy of relying solely on carbon pricing for economies deeply rooted in carbon-intensive sectors. By incorporating structurally distinct sectors within a genuinely monetary framework, the model enables us to comprehend the decisive role played by financial constraints arising from structural rigidities in shaping the dynamics of the low-carbon transition. Our findings show that the efficacy of carbon pricing is contingent on a country’s commercial, financial, and production structure. Furthermore, the results emphasize the significance of carbon tax recycling in preventing recessions and promoting sustainable decarbonization. This is accomplished by bolstering innovation and competitiveness in low-emission industries. |
| JEL: | Q |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:avg:wpaper:en16516&r=ene |
| By: | Peter Kennedy (Department of Economics, University of Victoria) |
| Abstract: | I examine a setting in which households with “green preferences” choose between two available technologies on the basis of their costs, and on the basis of their associated emissions. The green preferences give rise to a reciprocal externality among the households, the correction of which requires policy intervention. In the absence of corrective policy, the adoption of a cleaner technology can be welfare-improving even when it induces an increase in emissions (backfire). A reduction in emissions is neither necessary nor sufficient for the equilibrium adoption of a cleaner technology to be welfare-improving. Mandated adoption of a cleaner technology – when households have otherwise chosen not to adopt it – is never welfare-improving if it induces backfire. |
| Keywords: | backfire; clean technology; energy-efficiency; greenhouse gases; rebound |
| Date: | 2022–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vic:vicddp:2011&r=ene |
| By: | Francis X. Diebold (University of Pennsylvania); Glenn D. Rudebusch (Brookings Institution) |
| Abstract: | Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide emissions. For comparison, we provide analogous regression estimates using simulated data from global climate models (drawn from the CMIP5 and CMIP6 model comparison exercises). The carbon sensitivity of Arctic sea ice area is considerably stronger in the observed data than in the climate models. Thus, for a given future emissions path, an ice-free Arctic is likely to occur much earlier than the climate models project. Furthermore, little progress has been made in recent global climate modeling (from CMIP5 to CMIP6) to more accurately match the observed carbon-climate response of Arctic sea ice. |
| Keywords: | Arctic sea ice area; climate change; climate prediction |
| JEL: | Q54 C22 |
| Date: | 2023–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:24-010&r=ene |
| By: | Wei Zhou; Alice Moncaster; Eoghan O’Neill; David M Reiner; Xinke Wang; Peter Guthrie |
| Keywords: | Urban residential buildings, embodied energy, dynamic stock turnover, probabilistic model, material intensity, policy implications |
| JEL: | O18 R21 Q4 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg2209&r=ene |
| By: | Maryam Sadighi; Jean-Pierre Ponssard; Maria Eugenia Sanin; Elodie Le Cadre Loret |
| Abstract: | Adopting disruptive technologies for decarbonizing hard-to-abate industrial sectors requires experimentation through demonstration (pilot) projects. However, from an economic perspective, the potential long-term benefits and the difficulties in designing relevant public policies are not addressed in the standard valuations of those projects. This paper shows that cost-benefit analysis (CBA) at the sector level provides clues to solve these issues, integrating knowledge spillovers from the pilot throughout the industry and the technical change from value-added cost components in adjacent activities. Such analysis gives the optimal trajectory for decarbonizing the sector. Our suggested CBA also delivers the relevant abatement cost for the pilot, a key indicator of public policy. Applied to France’s large-scale, high-quality container glass sector, CBA obtains an abatement cost of around 200€/tCO2 for the pilot deploying a decarbonized hybrid technology, which is 50% lower than previous standard approaches. Additionally, we show that subsidizing the pilot associated with a commitment to transfer knowledge to follower plants is sufficient to decentralize the social optimum if governments implement an emissions tax internalizing the environmental cost. This approach could be applied in other hard-to-abate sectors to trigger the early deployment of disruptive innovations and facilitate the designing of relevant public policies. |
| Keywords: | disruptive technologies, pilot projects, cost-benefit analysis, carbon neutrality, knowledge spillover |
| JEL: | Q55 Q52 Q42 O33 O38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10973&r=ene |
| By: | Brantly Callaway; Tong Li; Joel Rodrigue; Yuya Sasaki; Yong Tan |
| Abstract: | Leveraging the sharp changes in environmental regulation embedded in China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP), which covered the period from 2006 to 2010, we characterize the degree to which the plan softens trade-offs between emissions and output. We document that the 11th FYP is associated with modest changes in average or total sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions among manufacturers, but a sharp decline in the variance in the distribution of emissions intensity. Extending well-known distributional estimators to characterize dynamic firm-level responses to policy change, we find large causal declines in emissions intensity in the upper quantiles of the distribution, modest evidence of increases in the lower quantiles and no change in the middle quantiles. Differential changes in firm-level emissions intensity are consistent with the differential investment in emissions-mitigating technology, energy switching and productivity improvements. Interpreted through the lens of a resource misallocation framework, China’s 11th FYP increased aggregate productivity and output by 1.8% and 10.2%, respectively, through improved resource allocation. Our model suggests efficient regulation could have further increased aggregate productivity by 3.5% and output by 4.7% without any increase in aggregate emissions. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Productivity |
| JEL: | C21 D24 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:24-7&r=ene |
| By: | Maxime Ollier (Agricultural and Resource Economics - Institute of Natural Resource Sciences - ZHAW - Zurich University of Applied Sciences, UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres); Stéphane De Cara (UMR PSAE - Paris-Saclay Applied Economics - AgroParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The potential regressivity of an emission tax is a major obstacle to the implementation of this otherwise cost-effective instrument. Rebates may help overcome this difficulty. Their distributional consequences depend on their design and the distribution of agents' initial emissions and abatement costs. We develop a stylized analytical framework to derive general conditions under which a tax-and-rebate scheme increases income inequality and compare the performances of various rebate designs. This framework is applied to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture. An emission tax with no rebate is found to substantially reduce agricultural emissions (by approximately −15% for a 100 €/tCOeq tax), but also strongly affect the total sector income (approximately −20% with the same tax rate) as well as increase income inequality. A flat rebate considerably reduces income inequality relative to pre-policy levels. For the same impacts on aggregate income and budget, a rebate proportional to initial emissions leaves pre-existing inequality virtually unchanged. A well-designed rebate can thus be critical for the acceptability of climate policy instruments. |
| Abstract: | La régressivité potentielle d'une taxe sur les émissions est un obstacle majeur à la mise en œuvre de cet instrument par ailleurs rentable. Les rabais peuvent aider à surmonter cette difficulté. Leurs conséquences distributives dépendent de leur conception et de la distribution des émissions initiales et des coûts de réduction des agents. Nous développons un cadre analytique stylisé pour dériver les conditions générales dans lesquelles un système de taxe et de rabais augmente l'inégalité des revenus et pour comparer les performances de différents modèles de rabais. Ce cadre est appliqué à la réglementation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre de l'agriculture européenne. On constate qu'une taxe sur les émissions sans rabais réduit considérablement les émissions agricoles (d'environ -15 % pour une taxe de 100 €/tCOeq), mais affecte aussi fortement le revenu total du secteur (environ -20 % avec le même taux d'imposition) et accroît l'inégalité des revenus. Un abattement forfaitaire réduit considérablement l'inégalité des revenus par rapport aux niveaux antérieurs à la politique. Pour les mêmes impacts sur le revenu global et le budget, un rabais proportionnel aux émissions initiales laisse les inégalités préexistantes pratiquement inchangées. Un rabais bien conçu peut donc être déterminant pour l'acceptabilité des instruments de la politique climatique. |
| Keywords: | Emission tax-and-rebate, Climate policy Emission tax-and-rebate Income inequality European agriculture |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04483758&r=ene |
| By: | ISHIKAWA Jota; KIYONO Kazuharu; YOMOGIDA Morihiro |
| Abstract: | We explore the effects of international technology transfers on global warming and welfare in a two-country (home and foreign), two-good, general equilibrium model with Ricardian and Heckscher–Ohlin features. We consider a situation in which both countries enforce emissions trading, and the home country, which has superior technologies in both sectors, has a comparative advantage in less emissions-intensive goods under free trade. The home country benefits from technology transfers in the more emissions-intensive industry due to an improvement in its terms of trade. The foreign country can also gain because global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) decrease. Technology transfer in the less emissions-intensive sector can lead to a more significant reduction in GHG emissions but may harm the home country. When free trade in emission permits and goods is allowed between countries, technology transfers in either sector will likely increase the emissions permit price without affecting global GHG emissions. An increase in the permit price negatively affects the welfare of the home country that imports permits from the foreign country. International emissions trading may reduce the incentive for technology transfers because there is no environmental benefit, and the permit price is higher. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:24040&r=ene |
| By: | Pedro Romero Marques; Luiza Nassif Pires; Tainari Taioka; Jose Bergamin; Gilberto Tadeu Lima |
| Abstract: | Announced in June 2021, the never-implemented Green Recovery Plan for the Brazilian Legal Amazon Region (GRP) would be a green transition initiative to be carried out by the state governments of the region. The GRP represented the first large-scale proposal aiming at the transition to a low-carbon economy in Brazil and offered a preliminary framework to evaluate the opportunities and limitations of green development in Global South economies. The GRP's initial phase would provide an investment of 1.5 billion reais (around $315 million in September 2023) in four areas: control of illegal deforestation, sustainable development, green technology, and green infrastructure. This article presents a counterfactual analysis by assessing the impacts of green spending in Amazon on the labor market, quantitatively—in terms of the number of jobs created—and qualitatively—exploring the distribution of those jobs by region and according to gender and race categories. We build synthetic sectors representing each area of investment in a two-region input-output matrix (“Brazilian Amazon†and “Rest of Brazil†). Using employment multipliers, we simulate a demand shock on the Amazonian economy and its impact on job creation in the two regions. Results suggest that green spending in the Amazon offers good perspectives (but also highlights limitations) for a just transition to a low-carbon economy in Brazil: the effects on employment favored the female workforce (both black and white) relative to the male and black workforce in the Amazon, leading to inequality-reducing composition changes in the Brazilian workforce as whole. |
| Keywords: | Green and just transition; Brazilian Amazon; employment multipliers; green spending |
| JEL: | J15 Q57 Q58 R11 R53 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon9&r=ene |
| By: | McLean, Sheldon |
| Abstract: | Between 2000 and 2019 the Caribbean Community produced between 0.11 and 0.16% of global emissions. However, despite being only minor emitters these countries find themselves highly exposed to the impact of climate change, increasingly vulnerable to floods, droughts, rising temperatures, rising sea-levels, hurricanes and coral bleaching etc. Furthermore, CARICOM Member States have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change (UNFCCC). The subregion has, however, lagged behind in the receipt of grant and concessionary support for its climate change adaptation and mitigation needs. Accordingly, one market-based modality, which may be useful a tool for generating the necessary resources for implementing Caribbean NDCs is the development of a regional emissions trading scheme (ETS). Presently, no such market-based mechanism exists in the subregion. This paper therefore represents exploratory research that considers the structure and function of ETS schemes which can be useful for leveraging implementation of Caribbean NDCs. However, for such an ETS to be a success, its framework must be structured carefully. Key factors which must be considered in its design are the size of the emissions cap for the countries, the sectors that will be involved, the Greenhouse gases (GHGs) to be covered, a monitoring, reporting and verification framework for the GHG emissions, the emissions allowances allocation system, and an emissions allocations reserve. The fact that NDCs may of necessity become increasingly ambitious will also have to be considered when designing a regional scheme. The revenue that is generated from the auctions can be retained by the ETS regulator to assist in offsetting its operational costs. Surplus revenue can be used to finance other climate change adaptation and mitigation projects. However, the distribution of the surplus revenue that accrues from such auctions will need to be carefully calibrated given the heterogeneity in size, industrial development and levels of emissions across Caribbean countries. |
| Date: | 2024–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col033:69048&r=ene |
| By: | Thomas Le Gallic (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SMASH - Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines); Augustin Danneaux (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, SMASH - Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines); Julien Lefèvre (AgroParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université Paris Saclay (COmUE)) |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the need to refine the assessment of employment impacts associated with coal phase-out in transition scenarios. We use a multi-sectoral macroeconomic Integrated Assessment Model enhanced by incorporating detailed data to improve productivity expectations in the coal sector. We also developed a sub-national economies dynamics module enabling the results to be scaled down, which provides qualitatively new information. The analysis quantifies job losses and their timing, highlighting regional disparities and vulnerability. The findings underscore the importance of integrating support policies for affected employees into carbon neutrality programs in order to enhance the feasibility and acceptance of transition pathways. |
| Date: | 2023–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04477762&r=ene |
| By: | Körner, Marc-Fabian; Nolting, Lars; Heeß, Paula; Schick, Leo; Lautenschlager, Jonathan; Zwede, Till; Ehaus, Marvin; Wiedemann, Stefanie; Babel, Matthias; Radtke, Malin |
| Abstract: | In response to the challenges posed by an increasingly decentralized energy system characterized by a high penetration of renewable energy sources, grid operators are experiencing heightened pressure to effectively manage grid congestion. Concurrently, both the European Union as well as the German government's ambitious climate tar-gets are fostering the proliferation of small-scale systems like heat pumps, photovoltaic systems, and electric cars, thereby enhancing the flexibility potential for redispatch operations. The project Decentralized Redispatch (DEER): Interfaces for providing flex-ibility aims to explore the integration of micro-flexibility into congestion management practices. The project's primary focus lies in designing an architecture in the context of a multi-agent-system that facilities secure and sovereign communication among all stakeholders in such a decentralized redispatch, ensuring both privacy and verifiability. The DEER project sets out to analyze the potential of leveraging self-sovereign identity management methods, combined with technologies such as zero-knowledge proofs and distributed ledgers, as a robust framework for achieving these objectives. |
| Abstract: | Mit den Herausforderungen, die durch ein zunehmend dezentrales Energiesystem mit einem hohen Anteil erneuerbarer Energieanlagen entstehen, verändern sich auch die Anforderungen an das (zukünftige) Netzengpassmanagement. Gleichzeitig treiben sowohl die Europäische Union als auch die Bundesregierung für die Erreichung der Klimaschutzziele die Verbreitung von elektrifizierten Kleinstanlagen wie Wärmepumpen, Photovoltaik-Anlagen mit Heimspeichern und Elektroautos voran. Damit erhöht sich zeitgleich ein (bisher) ungenutztes Potenzial dieser Anlagen für den Redispatch. Das Projekt "Dezentraler Redispatch (DEER): Schnittstellen zur Flexibilitätsbereitstellung" zielt darauf ab, die Integration von Kleinstflexibilitäten in das Netzengpassmanagement zu erforschen. Dieses White Paper gibt ein Überblick über die ersten Projektergebnisse sowie die notwendigen Technologien und Methoden. Das Projekt konzentriert sich dabei hauptsächlich darauf, eine Architektur im Kontext eines Multi-AgentenSystems zu entwerfen, die eine sichere und datensouveräne Kommunikation zwischen allen Stakeholdern im dezentralen Redispatch ermöglicht und damit sowohl Datenschutz als auch Verifizierbarkeit gewährleistet. Dabei zielt das DEER-Projekt darauf ab, das Potenzial von digitalen, selbstbestimmten Identitäten (SSI) in Kombination mit Zero-Knowledge-Proofs und verteilten Ledger-Technologien als geeigneten Rahmen zur Erreichung dieser Ziele zu analysieren. |
| Keywords: | Redispatch, SSI, Multi-Agent Systems, Zero Knowledge Proof |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bayism:287771&r=ene |
| By: | Bruno Fontaine (SMASH - Société de Mathématiques Appliquées et de Sciences Humaines, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antoine Teixeira (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie); Fanny Vicard (ADEME - Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Energie); Julien Lefèvre (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AgroParisTech); Marius Potfer (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Keywords: | Input-output, Net-zero transition, Carbon footprint, Materials, International Trade, Material footprint |
| Date: | 2023–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04483031&r=ene |
| By: | Claire Giordano (Bank of Italy); Enrico Tosti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the negative shock to Italy's terms of trade since the second half of 2021: the shock was less pronounced than the 1973-74 oil crisis, yet particularly sharp. The terms-of-trade deterioration was driven by energy goods and was greater than in the other euro-area economies due to a higher rise in energy import prices and to a greater share of energy products in total imports. The energy component was also the main driver both of the strong deterioration in the current account balance and of the large negative income effect. At any rate, Italy has successfully weathered the storm: the gradual recovery in the terms of trade since 2022 has led to the return to a positive current account balance and to a positive income effect. |
| Keywords: | terms of trade, energy prices, energy shock |
| JEL: | F10 F40 Q40 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_831_24&r=ene |
| By: | Danilo Liberati (Bank of Italy); Giuseppe Marinelli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Building on the work by Liberati and Marinelli (2021), this paper presents a study on the greenium, i.e. the negative yield difference between green bonds and their conventional counterparts. We use a security-by-security data set comprising a large sample of green bonds exchanged on the main global security markets, integrated with the microdata employed in official statistics on security holdings and prices. After showing the existence of the greenium, we employ a twofold approach in order to contribute to the literature on this topic. Firstly, we exploit an econometric strategy based on security-level panel regressions and we find strong evidence for the existence of the greenium and for its increase following the Covid-19 shock; nonetheless, after the end of the state of emergency, we find evidence of a rebound of the greenium of different intensities depending on the issuing sector. Finally, we provide econometric evidence for a persistent excess demand in the green bond secondary market through a non-Walrasian disequilibrium model a la Maddala and Nelson (1974). |
| Keywords: | Green bonds, greenium, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | C33 G12 G21 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_832_24&r=ene |
| By: | Di Tommaso, Caterina; Perdichizzi, Salvatore; Vigne, Samuel; Zaghini, Andrea |
| Abstract: | This research focuses on the cost of financing green projects on the primary bond market and tests for a potential price differential between green bonds issued by government entities and those issued by supranational and private sector issuers. Our findings indicate that government entities benefit from more favorable pricing conditions worldwide. This advantage is growing over time and particularly pronounced for sovereigns and municipal authorities. Our analysis also reveals that country-specific factors, such as strong political commitment to address climate change, low income level and high degree of indebtedness are significant predictors of the pricing spread across bonds. |
| Keywords: | Green bonds, Sovereign debt, Yield spread, Greenium |
| JEL: | G15 G32 H63 C21 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:285366&r=ene |
| By: | Joe DeLosa III; Johannes P. Pfeifenberger; Paul Joskow |
| Abstract: | The U.S. regulation of high-voltage transmission is highly complex and, as a result, generally poorly understood. The complexity is created by separate, but overlapping, jurisdictional authorities of the U.S. federal regulators and those of individual states, districts, and territories. While U.S. federal regulators have authority over stand-alone transmission service and the regional wholesale power markets that use the transmission grid, state regulators have jurisdiction over both (1) retail electricity services that include the distribution network, the retail cost of transmission service, and often generation service; and (2) the permitting of most new transmission facilities within their states’ boundaries. Some of these federal and state regulatory authorities overlap and some of them do not apply to non-jurisdictional transmission providers (such as certain municipal utilities, cooperatives, and federal power marketing agencies) and states (such as Texas) that are not synchronized with the larger regional grid. We summarize this complex structure of transmission regulation in the U.S. and the history of regulations that have created the industry structure and regulatory frameworks that exist today. We provide an overview of how transmission investments are priced and recovered and the planning processes that individual transmission owners and regional grid operators use to plan the necessary expansion of the high-voltage transmission grid. We also point out some of the economic inefficiencies that are created by a combination of balkanized regulatory structures and outdated industry planning practices. |
| JEL: | L51 L94 Q48 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32254&r=ene |
| By: | Bruna Guidetti; Paula Pereda; Edson R. Severnini |
| Abstract: | How responsive to health shocks are healthcare systems in the developing world? Developing countries are known to have both lower levels of hospital infrastructure and serious health shocks driven by air pollution. These shocks are transitory and may be marginal relative to other health demands, so healthcare systems might be able to manage them. On the other hand, with limited capacity hospitals may not be able to respond rapidly, possibly exacerbating health damages from pollution. In this study, we examine the consequences of health shocks induced by air pollution in a megacity in the developing world: Sao Paulo, Brazil. Using daily data on pediatric hospitalizations from 2015-2017, an instrumental variable approach based on wind speed, and a plausibly exogenous measure of hospital capacity constraints, we show that such transitory health shocks can disrupt healthcare services due to limited capacity, including for conditions seemingly unrelated to air pollution. Also, we cannot rule out severe deterioration of health outcomes. |
| JEL: | I15 O13 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32224&r=ene |
| By: | Marika Cabral; Marcus Dillender |
| Abstract: | Little is known about how pollution impacts worker health and workplace safety. This paper leverages high-frequency, plausibly exogenous variation in wildfire smoke to estimate the impact of pollution on workplace injuries. Our analysis draws on unique data we construct through linking information on smoke plumes and pollution to comprehensive administrative data on workers’ compensation injury claims from Texas. We first document that wildfire smoke increases ambient air pollution—with our estimates indicating that a day of smoke coverage is associated with an average increase in PM₂.₅ of 18.6%. We find that an additional day of smoke coverage leads to a 2.8% increase in workplace injury claims. Similar percent increases in workplace injuries are found across different types of injuries and workers. However, because of large variation in baseline injury risk, the incidence of these pollution-induced injuries is concentrated among workers in high-risk occupations, and supplemental analysis illustrates potential opportunities for improving the targeting of costly mitigation. Our estimates indicate that pollution—and wildfire smoke in particular—substantially harms worker health, even at pollution levels well below current and proposed regulatory standards. Overall, our findings suggest workers face unique risks from pollution and provide insights for policy aiming to address these risks. |
| JEL: | I18 J28 J3 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32232&r=ene |
| By: | Song, Myungkoo (Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the effects of the changing global automotive landscape from several perspectives. In particular, we consider changes in vehicle production and sales to assess the supply and demand sides of the industry. We also take into account changes in exports to examine the state of global trade. All of these changes are considered through the lens of countries rather than firms. In addition, we examine the South Korean automotive industry as a case study to elaborate on the details of recent changes and the response of automakers. We conclude the paper with a review of policy instruments recently implemented to stimulate the EV market. Thank you for reading this abstract of a report from the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade! Visit us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q36v30l5CV0 Visit us on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/worldkiet/ Visit our website: http://www.kiet.re.kr/en |
| Keywords: | manufacturing industry; auto manufacturing; automotive industry; auto industry; internal combustion engine; ICE; electric vehicles; EVs; batteries; EV adoption; EV policy; Hyundai; Kia; Genesis; Korea; KIET |
| JEL: | L62 L98 |
| Date: | 2024–02–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kieter:2024_001&r=ene |
| By: | Emanuele Bacchiocchi; Andrea Bastianin; Toru Kitagawa; Elisabetta Mirto |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions (SVARs) exploiting a break in the variances of the structural shocks. Point-identification for this class of models relies on an eigen-decomposition involving the covariance matrices of reduced-form errors and requires that all the eigenvalues are distinct. This point-identification, however, fails in the presence of multiplicity of eigenvalues. This occurs in an empirically relevant scenario where, for instance, only a subset of structural shocks had the break in their variances, or where a group of variables shows a variance shift of the same amount. Together with zero or sign restrictions on the structural parameters and impulse responses, we derive the identified sets for impulse responses and show how to compute them. We perform inference on the impulse response functions, building on the robust Bayesian approach developed for set identified SVARs. To illustrate our proposal, we present an empirical example based on the literature on the global crude oil market where the identification is expected to fail due to multiplicity of eigenvalues. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2403.06879&r=ene |