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on China |
| By: | David Dollar; Shang-Jin Wei |
| Abstract: | Based on a survey that we designed and that covers a stratified random sample of 12,400 firms in 120 cities in China with firm-level accounting information for 2002-2004, this paper examines the presence of systematic distortions in capital allocation that result in uneven marginal returns to capital across firm ownership, regions, and sectors. It provides a systematic comparison of investment efficiency among wholly and partially state-owned, wholly and partially foreign-owned, and domestic privately owned firms, conditioning on their sector, location, and size characteristics. It finds that even after a quarter-of-century of reforms, state-owned firms still have significantly lower returns to capital, on average, than domestic private or foreign-owned firms. Similarly, certain regions and sectors have consistently lower returns to capital than other regions and sectors. By our calculation, if China succeeds in allocating its capital more efficiently, it could reduce its capital stock by 8 percent without sacrificing its economic growth (and hence could raise its household consumption and deliver a faster improvement to its citizens' living standard). |
| JEL: | E22 F21 O1 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13103&r=cna |
| By: | Jeffrey A. Frankel; Shang-Jin Wei |
| Abstract: | This paper examines two related issues: (a) the implicit methodology used by the U.S. Treasury in determining whether China and America's other trading partners manipulate their exchange rates, and (b) the nature of the Chinese exchange rate regime since July 2005. On the first issue, we investigate the roles of economic variables consistent with the IMF definition of manipulation - the partners' overall current account/GDP, its reserve changes, and the real overvaluation of its currency - but also some variables suggestive of American domestic political considerations -- the bilateral trade balance, US unemployment, and an election year dummy. The econometric results suggest that the Treasury verdicts are driven heavily by the US bilateral deficit, though other variables also turn out to be quite important. On the issue of China's de facto exchange rate regime, we apply the technique introduced by Frankel and Wei (1994) to estimate implicit basket weights, adding several refinements. Within 2005, the de facto regime remained a peg to the dollar. However, there was a modest but steady increase in flexibility subsequently. We test whether US pressure has promoted RMB flexibility. We also test whether the recent appreciation against the dollar is due to a trend appreciation against the reference basket or a declining weight on the dollar in the reference basket, and suggest that they have different policy implications. |
| JEL: | F3 F59 O1 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13100&r=cna |
| By: | Andreas Kontoleon (Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, UK); Pauline Grosjean (LERNA, University of Toulouse and European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper undertakes a direct comprehensive assessment of the long-run sustainability of one the world’s largest sustainable development programs, the Slopping Land Conversion Program (SLCP) in China under different plausible post-SLCP scenarios. The analysis is based on farmer contingent behavior post-program land and labor decisions as well as choice experiment data. Our econometric results highlight the main obstacles to the program’s sustainability, which include specific shortfalls in program implementation as well as certain institutional constraints such as tenure insecurity, poor land renting rights, limited access to credit and limited land management rights. |
| Keywords: | sustainable development programs, sustainability, recursive probit, choice modeling, Asia, China |
| JEL: | Q2 Q4 R4 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lnd:wpaper:200726&r=cna |